prop 8 - Equality California

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Transcript prop 8 - Equality California

Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

Prepared by David Binder Research

Conducted November 6 th - 16 th , 2008

Research Methodology

Methodology

Respondents

800 voters living in California who voted in the November 2008 election, plus an additional oversample of 266 Asian, Latino, and African American voters.

Margin of Error

Margin of error: 3.0%

Dates

Poll was conducted November 6th to 16th, 2008.

Summary Findings

Summary Findings: Overall

Overall Results

•

Proposition 8 was passed on November 4, 2008 by a margin of 52% to 48% by a margin of about 600,000 votes out of 1.3 million votes cast.

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Two areas of the state stood out: The Central Valley counties overwhelmingly supported the measure by 71%-29%, while the more populous Bay Area was strongly opposed (39%-61%). However, the Southern California counties which comprise 55% of the total vote supported Prop 8 by 54% to 46%. In Los Angeles County, 69% voted for Barack Obama for President, but slightly less than 50% voted no on Proposition 8 – a gap of 19 percentage points (compared to a 13 point differential statewide). 5

Summary Findings: Demographics

Results by Subgroup

• •

Political ideology was the factor that corresponded most highly to the Proposition 8 vote, with 22% of liberals voting yes on 8, compared to 51% of moderates and 82% of conservatives. Election day exit polls that showed 70% of African American voters supporting Proposition 8 appear incorrect. Our survey shows 58% of Blacks voting for 8. Precincts in Southern California’s most concentrated areas of African American voters – Carson and Compton – show 65% support for Prop 8. Predominately African American precincts in other areas of LA County and in San Francisco showed support in the low-to-mid 50 percent range.

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The factor next most important in determining vote on Prop 8, after ideology, was religion, with voters who worship regularly being strongly more likely to support Prop 8, by a 70% to 30%, while those who worship less often voted 38% to 62% against Prop 8. Blacks and Latinos who worship less than once a week opposed Prop 8.

Summary Findings: Reasons for Vote and Influencers

Reasons for Vote

• •

Supporters of Prop 8 most frequently cited their view that marriage is between a man and a woman.

Influ encers

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Secondarily, Prop 8 supporters disclosed religious reasons as motive for their support.

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Opponents of Prop 8 most frequently cited their view that same sex marriage was an issue of civil rights and equal rights, as well as their view that everyone should have the freedom to marry the person of their choosing. Most voters stated they were most influenced by discussions with friends, family and coworkers. This pool of voters opposed Proposition 8.

• •

About one-quarter said they had a strong personal opinion on the issue that was not swayed by other communications. This pool voted yes.

About 8% said they were swayed by the church. This pool voted yes by 94% to 6%. 7

Summary Findings: Communications

TV ads

• •

Among the yes on 8 ads, the message that stood out was that Prop 8 will cause the teaching of same sex marriage in schools.

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Among the no on 8 ads, most saw the ad featuring Senator Dianne Feinstein. The ads with Feinstein and Sam and Julia Thoron were statistically more likely to cause a no vote than were other ads. The History ad narrated by Samuel L. Jackson was also convincing.

Other Commu nication sources

• • •

Vast majority of voters said mail and telephone calls were not influential. Only 5% visited official campaign websites, but those who visited the no on 8 website rated it more influential than visitors to the yes site.

About 10% said they received information from a church, and 49% felt this information was convincing – a much higher proportion than other sources, such as labor unions, newspaper editorials and television ads. 8

Messa ging

• Summary Findings: Messaging

Only about 17% of yes on 8 voters could name something tangible that could cause them to change their mind and support same sex marriage, including:

• • • •

Call marriage by another name Ensure that same sex marriage will not be taught in schools Ensure that churches will not be forced to perform same sex marriages Approval, or lack of formal opposition, from churches or religious leaders 9

Election Results

California Election Results November 4, 2008

President

Obama 8,274,473 61.1% No

Prop 8

6,401,482 47.7% McCain 5,011,781 37.0% Yes 7,001,084 52.3% Gap between Obama vote and No on 8 vote was 1.8 million, or 14%

Prop 8 Map – 52% Yes vs 48% No Prop 8 vs Obama Presidential Vote -- 61% Obama vs 37% McCain 12

LA County had 19% difference between vote for Obama and vote against Prop 8 Region LA County San Diego County Other Southern California Central Valley Sacramento / Tahoe Region Bay Area Central Coast Inland / Mountains / Other Total

% Obama

69 54 51 46 55 74 64 46 61

% No on 8 % Obama – Prop 8

50 46 40 29 43 61 56 40 48 12 13 8 6 13 19 8 11 17

Other Southern California: Riverside, San Bernardino, Santa Barbara, Ventura Central Valley: Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Stanislaus, Tulare Sacramento / Tahoe: Amador, El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Yolo Bay Area: Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Mendocino, Napa, SF, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, Sonoma Central Coast: Monterey, San Benito, San Luis Obispo, Santa Cruz Inland / Mountains / Other: Alpine, Butte, Calaveras, Colusa, Del Norte, Glenn, Humboldt, Inyo, Lake, Lassen, Mariposa,

Prop 8 generated far more interest than any other state proposition

Which one of the 12 state propositions on the November 4 th ballot were you most interested in?

Prop 1A Prop 2 Prop 3 Prop 4 Prop 5 Prop 6 Prop 7 Prop 8 Prop 9 Prop 10 Prop 11 Prop 12 All equally None of them Don't know 1 0 1 1 2 2 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 63

Source: PPIC Statewide Survey, Dec 2008

The outcome of Prop 8 was more important to Yes voters than No voters

As you may know, Proposition 8 passed. How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 8?

Yes Voters No Voters

Very Important Somewhat Important Not too important Not at all important Don't know 0 2 59 74 5 10 18 22 % Very Important • Evangelical Christians: 77% (vs all others: 61%) • Women: 69% (vs Men: 60%) • Latinos: 67% •

Overall: 65%

• Whites: 64% 3 7

Source: PPIC Statewide Survey, Dec 2008

Vote by Subgroups

Women Men 0

Prop 8 by gender % voting yes

49 50 54

Prop 8 by gender and family status % voting yes

Women, parents Women, not parents Men, parents Men, not parents 0 47 50 50 52 60

Under 30 30s 40s 50-64 65+ 0

Prop 8 by age % voting yes

41 45 52 47 50 65

White Black Hispanic/Latino Asian Other 0

Prop 8 by ethnicity % voting Yes

50 58 59 48 39 50

Democrats Independents Republicans 0

Prop 8 by party % voting yes

30 52 50

There is a direct correspondence between voters’ self-placement on an ideological scale and the percent supporting Proposition 8 % voting yes 86 79 70 53 32 21 22 Very liberal Somewhat liberal Moderate, lean liberal Moderate Moderate, lean conservative Somewhat Conservative Very conservative

Catholic Protestant Jewish* Other No Religion 0 17

Prop 8 by religion % voting yes

55 66 29 49 50

Once a week or more Few times a month Special occasions/holiday Hardly ever 0

Prop 8 by frequency of worship % voting yes

30 44 49 50 70

High school graduate Some college or associate degree College graduate Postgraduate study 0

Prop 8 by education level % voting Yes

56 57 40 50 50 Source: media exit poll

Barack Obama

Prop 8 by presidential vote % voting Yes

30 John McCain 0 50

Prop 8 by knowledge of LGBT people % voting Yes

Are LGBT 5 Know LGBT 48 Do not know LGBT 0 50 60

Timing & Influences

Q8 N=549

Yes voters are driven by the belief that marriage is between a man and a woman

What are the reasons why you voted YES on Proposition 8?

BASE: Those voting YES

Believe marriage is between a man and woman Religious reasons Don’t believe in same sex marriage Family reasons, should not be taught in school Moral issues Thought it was the right way to vote Homosexuals can live in union; do not call it marriage Already voted on, already have equal rights No conviction; does not affect me 2 5 5 5 5 9 15 29 40

Q9 N=515

No voters are driven by belief in equal rights and freedom to choose whom to marry

What are the reasons why you voted NO on Proposition 8?

BASE: Those voting NO Believe in: civil rights, equal rights, freedom to choose whom to marry Prop 8 discriminates, is unequal, wrong to deny people their rights Should not be on ballot, govt shouldn’t be allowed to decide who marries whom / unconstitutional / takes away rights Not my right to tell someone who they can or cannot marry Know or is homosexual and/or wants chance to marry partner 6 11 18 26 40

Majority of voters were most influenced by discussions with friends and family and their personal opinion, while 8% were most influenced by religion.

Which of the following was the most influential to you when deciding how to vote on Proposition 8?

Discussion with friends, families and coworkers Personal opinion The information in the ballot pamphlet Religion/ Bible Television advertisements Newspaper articles 3 6 8 12 Newspaper editorials 2 26 29 Q12 (N=1066)

Q12 (N=1066)

Voters influenced by discussions more likely to vote no, voters influenced by the religion more likely to vote yes

Which of the following was the most influential to you when deciding how to vote on Proposition 8?

% voting Yes

Discussion with friends, families and coworkers Personal opinion The information in the ballot pamphlet Religion/ Bible Television advertisements Newspaper articles 31 45 43 53 58 94 Newspaper editorials 47

Communications

Ads, mail & discussions with friends and family had the greatest reach. Phone calls and newspaper endorsements also had strong reach.

Television ads Mail Discussions with friends and family Phone calls Newspaper endorsements Discussions with clergy, members Ads in ethnic media Church or synagogue Labor union Ads on web sites Official web sites

10 9 8 7 27 19 24 36

Received information this way

90 86 85

Q28-34 (N=1066)

While about one-third of voters report receiving a phone call about Prop 8, 95% say it wasn’t effective

95 Number of phone calls received Influence of phone calls 12 9 No calls 1 2 6 3 6 3 4 or 5 6 or more 3 2 More likely to vote yes More likely to vote no No influence

Q63 (N=1066)

Seeing gay couples being married on TV did not significantly affect the vote on Proposition 8

Have you ever seen same sex couples get married on the news or on television? (IF YES:) Did that make you more likely to vote YES on 8, more likely to vote NO on 8, or did it make no difference to you?

Q63 (N=1066)

20 14 11 Did Not See Saw, but made no difference Saw, made more likely to vote YES on 8 Saw, made more likely to vote NO on 8

About 69% saw a Yes on 8 ad, but only 18% found them convincing

72 31 23 Number of yes on 8 ads seen 17 14 15 Did not see/not sure 1 to 4 5 to 10 11 to 20 20 or more Convincingness of TV ads 9 9 9 Very convincing somewhat convincing not too convincing not convincing at all

Q63 (N=1066)

Q27 (N=549)

The Yes on 8 ad most frequently recalled is about the teaching of same sex marriage in schools.

Can you describe for me one television ad for yes on 8 that you remember that was convincing?

Teaching same sex marriage in schools Child with book about a king marrying a king (prince marrying prince, etc.) Traditional marriage (man marrying woman) Mayor talking about same sex marriage/ proposition 8 Children on field trip to gay wedding Parents talking about homosexual son or daughter Commercial about kids (not specific) Religious commercials about same sex marriage Discrimination commercial Spanish commercial talking about same sex marriage None 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 5 18 52

No on 8 Ads Seen: Dianne seen by most Percent recall seeing ad

Dianne: Feinstein saying vote no on 8 to say no to discrimination History: Narrated by Samuel L Jackson with Japanese Interment camps; saying vote No on 8 to oppose discrimination Thoron: Sam & Julia Thoron wanting same civil rights for their lesbian daughter as for their straight sons Endorsements: No on 8 has been endorsed by major papers, unions, and corporations.

Wedding: Garden wedding, bride is blocked from getting married with tag line “What if you couldn't marry the person you love?” Ellen: Ellen DeGeneres expressing support for the right to marry the person she chooses Families: non-gay family member talking about gay relative who had gotten married; "As CA's gay couples marry, their families grow stronger"

24 43 38 35 34 33 67

Q28-34 (N=1066)

No on 8 Ads Seen: Among viewers, Thoron ad is more convincing

Very convincing Somewhat convincing Dianne History (SLJ) Thoron Endorsements Garden wedding Ellen Families

17 23 23 13 14 16 18 15 19 17 17 16 13 20 32 36 43 32 31 33 34

Q28-34 (N=1066)

Voters who saw Dianne and Thoron are more likely to have voted no on Prop 8.

42 46 47 48 46 50 52

*Significant at the .001 level in logistic regression analysis

Q28-34 (N=1066)

Takeaways

Majority of voters believed that Prop 8 would preserve traditional marriage All Voters

Agree Don't Know Disagree Prop 8 would preserve traditional marriage

58 5 37

Prop 8 was backed by the Mormon Church Prop 8 would stop the teaching of same sex marriage to children in elementary school Prop 8 would serve to rein in the activist judges on the CA Supreme Court Prop 8 would protect the tax-exempt status of churches

19 29 37 49 36 17 29 32 46 41 45 19

Q49-58 (N=1066)

Majority of voters agree that it is wrong to eliminate constitutional right of equal protection and that Prop 8 was unfair, unnecessary and wrong All Voters

Agree Don't Know Disagree Regardless of how you feel about marriage, it's wrong to eliminate the constitutional right of 'equal protection'

52 10 37 51 5 44

Prop 8 was unfair, unnecessary and wrong Prop 8 meant that CA law would allow discrimination against some groups & individuals Prop 8 meant that CA laws would no longer treat everyone equally & fairly Prop 8 was opposed by the League of Women Voters & the CTA

50 46 45 6 6 36 45 49 18

Q49-58 (N=1066)

9% voted YES, but believe that Prop 8 is unfair, unnecessary, and wrong. Regression analysis indicates they were motivated by the belief that Prop 8 will preserve traditional marriage & stop the teaching of same sex marriage in school.

Yes voters who believe Prop 8 is unfair, unnecessary, wrong

Prop 8 was unfair, unnecessary and wrong Prop 8 would preserve traditional marriage * Prop 8 would stop the teaching of same sex marriage to children in elementary school * Regardless of how you feel about marriage, it's wrong to eliminate the constitutional right of 'equal protection' Prop 8 meant that CA law would allow discrimination against some groups & individuals Prop 8 was backed by the Mormon Church Prop 8 would serve to rein in the activist judges on the CA Supreme Court Prop 8 meant that CA laws would no longer treat everyone equally & fairly Prop 8 was opposed by the League of Women Voters & the CTA Prop 8 would protect the tax-exempt status of churches

36 35 34 33 30 26

*Significant at the .0005 level in logistic regression analysis

47 62 78 100 51 39 29 57 34 25 34 26 15 0

Q49-58 (N=95)

73% of yes voters say there is nothing that could change their mind.

7% want same sex marriage to be called something else.

Some people voted no on Proposition 8 because they believe it’s wrong to deny gay people the ability to get married. Is there anything that could change your mind and lead you to support the freedom to marry for everyone some day? What?)

If same sex marriage is called something else Probably would not change 3 7 If church says same sex marriage is okay 3 If same sex marriage is not taught in schools If no adverse affects on churches 1 2 If family rights to teach in home are not changed 1 Miscellaneous 5 Don't Know 4 No / Nothing 73 Q64 N=549