Transcript Food price volatility: Long-term trends and outlook for child undernutrition in Africa Will Masters Professor and Chair, Department of Food and Nutrition Policy Friedman School.

Food price volatility:
Long-term trends and outlook for
child undernutrition in Africa
Will Masters
Professor and Chair, Department of Food and Nutrition Policy
Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Tufts University
www.nutrition.tufts.edu
sites.tufts.edu/willmasters
McGill Conference on Global Food Security
5 October 2011
Food price volatility today:
Two spikes, and a new plateau?
Monthly average prices for wheat, maize and rice, Jan. 2000-Sep. 2011
500
450
400
350
Wheat (US Gulf, No. 2 Hard Red Winter)
Maize (US Gulf, No. 2 Yellow)
Rice (Bangkok, Thai 100% B)
300
250
200
150
100
50
Jan-00
Jun-00
Nov-00
Apr-01
Sep-01
Feb-02
Jul-02
Dec-02
May-03
Oct-03
Mar-04
Aug-04
Jan-05
Jun-05
Nov-05
Apr-06
Sep-06
Feb-07
Jul-07
Dec-07
May-08
Oct-08
Mar-09
Aug-09
Jan-10
Jun-10
Nov-10
Apr-11
Sep-11
0
Source: FAO Global Information and Early Warning System data (www.fao.org/giews/pricetool2),
downloaded Oct 3, 2011. All are monthly export prices, normalized to Jan. 2000=100, for US No.
2 Hard Red Winter Wheat, US No. 2 Yellow Maize, and Thai 100% Broken Rice.
How will people respond?
Producers & consumers, activists & officials
April 2008
January 2011
Can we learn from history?
Share of all two-word phrases in English-language books, 1900-2008
1990-2008:
The great forgetting
1900-1970:
Cycling between
food and farm crises
1970-1990:
The green
revolution
Source: Computed from http://books.google.com/ngrams, 3 October 2011.
Method detailed in J-B Michel et al., 2010. Quantitative Analysis of Culture
Using Millions of Digitized Books. Science, Dec. 2010.
Words in books follow world food prices
Share of all two-word phrases in English-language books, 1900-2008
1990-2008:
Complacency
Relative price of food on world markets, 1900-2005 (1977-79=100)
Source: K. Anderson (2006), “Reducing Distortions to Agricultural Incentives: Progress, Pitfalls and Prospects.”
<www.worldbank.org/agdistortions>. Data shown are an index of export prices in US dollars for all major traded
agricultural products, deflated by the MUV index which is the unit value of manufactures exported from France,
Germany, Japan, UK and US, with weights based on those countries’ exports to developing countries.
Will we respond now as they did then?
February 1917
August 1918
April 1973
Relative price of food on world markets, 1900-2005 (1977-79=100)
Source: K. Anderson (2006), “Reducing Distortions to Agricultural Incentives: Progress, Pitfalls and Prospects.”
<www.worldbank.org/agdistortions>. Data shown are an index of export prices in US dollars for all major traded
agricultural products, deflated by the MUV index which is the unit value of manufactures exported from France,
Germany, Japan, UK and US, with weights based on those countries’ exports to developing countries.
Even after the Green Revolution,
under-nutrition persisted…
Relative price of food on world markets, 1900-2005 (1977-79=100)
March 13, 2002
World: Many
Hungry Mouths
Around 815 million people -- 13
percent of the world's population -suffer from hunger and malnutrition,
Source: K. Anderson (2006), “Reducing Distortions to Agricultural
Incentives:
Progress,
Pitfalls and Prospects.”
mostly in developing
countries,
said
head ofprices
the United
<www.worldbank.org/agdistortions>. Data shown are anJacques
indexDiouf,
of export
in US dollars for all major traded
Nations
Food
and
Agriculture
agricultural products, deflated by the MUV index which is the unit value of manufactures exported from France,
Organization.
Germany, Japan, UK and US, with weights based on those
countries’ exports to developing countries.
Extreme under-nutrition happens
mainly in infancy, among the very poorest
Mean weight-for-height z scores relative to WHO standards, by region (1-59 mo.)
The most extreme undernutrition is here, among
infants aged 4-12 months
Source: CG Victora, M de Onis, PC Hallal, M Blössner and R Shrimpton, “Worldwide timing of
growth faltering: revisiting implications for interventions.” Pediatrics, 125(3, Mar. 2010):e473-80.
In Asia, where undernutrition was worst,
we now have 30 years of improvement
National trends in prevalence of underweight children (0-5 years)
Selected countries with repeated national surveys
Source: UN SCN. Sixth Report on the World Nutrition Situation. Released October 2010, at
http://www.unscn.org.
In Africa, undernutrition has begun to
improve only recently, in some countries
National trends in prevalence of underweight children (0-5 years)
Selected countries with repeated national surveys
Source: UN SCN. Sixth Report on the World Nutrition Situation. Released October 2010, at
http://www.unscn.org.
Asia has had 30 years of poverty decline;
Africa’s poverty decline began 20 yrs. later
Source: Author’s calculation from World Bank (2011), PovcalNet (http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/),
updated 11 April 2011. Estimates are based on over 700 household surveys from more than 120 countries,
and refer to per-capita expenditure at purchasing-power parity prices for 2005.
Africa’s green revolution is
at least 20 years behind Asia’s
Source: Reprinted from W.A. Masters, “Paying for Prosperity: How and Why to Invest in Agricultural Research and
Development in Africa” (2005), Journal of International Affairs, 58(2): 35-64.
The rise then fall in Africa’s child-survival
baby boom is also 20 years behind Asia’s
Child and elderly dependency rates by region (0-15 and 65+), 1950-2030
Total dependency rates (ages 0-14 and 65+), 1950-2030
50
Africa had the world’s most severe
demographic burden (>45% )
now a demographic gift
45
40
SS Africa
S Asia
35
SE Asia
Rest of World
30
Source: Calculated from UN Population Projections, 2008 revision (March 2009), at http://esa.un.org/unpp.
The rise then fall in Africa’s rural
population growth is also 20 years later
RuralRural
population
growth
rates(decade
by region,
1950-2030
population
growth
averages),
1950-2030
2.5%
Over 2% annual growth
for 30 years!
2.0%
Under 1.3% annually,
and falling
1.5%
1.0%
SS Africa
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.5%
S Asia
Below zero = more land/farmer
SE Asia
Rest of
World
Source: Calculated from FAOStat (downloaded 17 March 2009). Rural population estimates and projections
are based on UN Population Projections (2006 revision) and UN Urbanization Prospects (2001 revision).
Conclusions on price volatility,
long-term trends and outlook
• The two-spike, new plateau world of price volatility is bad
– Unless increased public investment deepens the green revolution
• Child undernutrition and extreme poverty is worse
– And it persisted into 2000s, despite low and stable food prices
• Long-term trends promise gradual improvements
– Asia has had 30 years of slow improvement
– Africa’s trends paralleled Asia’s, but 20+ years later
• Worsening and then improvement in:
– poverty rates
– child dependency
– rural population growth
– Africa has already begun to reverse its impoverishment
In Africa, undernutrition is less severe
but is improving in only some countries
National trends in prevalence of underweight children (0-5 years)
Selected countries with repeated national surveys
Source: UN SCN. Sixth Report on the World Nutrition Situation. Released October 2010, at
http://www.unscn.org.