Click to edit Master title style Perspectives on New • Click to edit Master text styles Collaborative Areas • • • • Second level October 22, 2008 Third level Fourth level Eric J.
Download ReportTranscript Click to edit Master title style Perspectives on New • Click to edit Master text styles Collaborative Areas • • • • Second level October 22, 2008 Third level Fourth level Eric J.
Click to edit Master title style Perspectives on New • Click to edit Master text styles Collaborative Areas • • • • Second level October 22, 2008 Third level Fourth level Eric J. Barron Fifth level Director, NCAR List of Nominations 1 A Strategic Topic of Major Click to edit to Master titlefuture style Importance NCAR’s • What is the scope of our future research, •facilities Click toand edit service Master domain? text styles • –Second level and related sciences, or The atmospheric The full spectrum of environmental sciences • –Third level and a broadening element of earth-related • Fourth level sciences, or • –Fifth level The full spectrum of environmental sciences List of Nominations and relevant social sciences and decisionsciences 2 The Polarity of Opinions Click to(both edit Master title style are true) The problems in the atmospheric and related sciences are •significant Click toand edit Master text styles engaging, more than worthy of a national that continues •center Second level to be highly focused vs. • Third level The problems we face are multi-faceted (understanding •weather Fourth level and climate is only one intersecting component) the future will be even more deeply tied to gaining a •and Fifth level full environmental understanding and connecting it to List of Nominations societal benefit 3 Add a dose of reality Click to edit Master title style • We are in a budget constrained environment and this last for significant period •may Click to aedit Master text styles • There is no federal funding agency that effectively •enables Second level the cross-over of the physical sciences much the physical List of Nominations •less Third level and social sciences • Our constituency is a clearly defined set of disciplines • Fourth level • So, without multiple changes in external boundary (budget, agency approach to multiple •conditions Fifth level disciplines, constituency), an internal decision to expand our domain can only occur by deletion (and negative impacts on constituents) or a different approach 4 A second dose of reality Click to edit Master title style • Our mission is predicated on an approach that is that cantext properly •“beyond Click tothose edit Master stylesbe made individual universities” •available Secondatlevel • Third level • So, when does the expertise that we might add •inFourth level and decision-making (and social sciences •many Fifthother levelsciences) exceed this threshold? List of Nominations 5 The Challenge is Clear Click to edit Master title style • How do we reasonably reach for the future •that Click to edit Master styles everyone knows text is going to happen? Without investment • –Second level in other disciplines from our ATM base • Third level – Without agencies that enable the cross-over of the relevant level disciplines • Fourth Without the foundation of matching underlying • –Fifth level List of Nominations constituents – Without exceeding the mission mandate of NCAR 6 (?)New Collaborations that Click to edit Master title style directly intersect our mission • Click to edit Master text styles • Where is our mission most obvious? • –Second levelmodels Large community Key facilities (computers, airplanes, radars, etc) • –Third level • What capabilities are most needed in our • Fourth level intersection with other disciplines? • –Fifth level Prediction – the discipline of forecasting – an List of Nominations ability to anticipate the future. 7 An Example Click to edit Master title style • Human Health • –Click Masterand textclimate styles Clearto tieedit to weather • Distribution and timing of vectors, “over-wintering” (e.g. • Second level mosquitoes), incubation periods, availability of hosts, food availability • Third levelfor hosts, contact with human populations, etc. • Heat waves, air pollution, etc. • Fourth level – Medical response is “point of service” – reacts • Fifth level cases (almost no discipline of to incoming List of Nominations forecasting) – Therefore, real potential if we can design monitoring algorithms or predictive capability 8 Example: Response based on Click to edit Master title style Occurrence • • • • • Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level List of Nominations 9 Click to edit Master title style • • • • • Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level List of Nominations 10 • • • • • Potential to Forecast – PA county correlation between Lyme Disease cases and warm days Click to edit Master title style in fall from the prior year (also correlates with fall snow cover in the prior year) Click to edit Master text styles 600 y = 19.998x - 429.36 Second level 500 R = 0.6842 400 Third level 300 Fourth level 200 Fifth 100 level 2 Cases List of Nominations 0 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 F 50n60 tt 11 Compelling Problem of major Click to edit Master title style significance • Is our ability to predict adverse human health theMaster stage oftext weather forecasting in •outcomes Click to at edit styles 50’s? level •the Second • Imagine the impact on society if we could List of Nominations •anticipate Third level adverse health outcomes and mitigate •them Fourth level • •Added Fifth benefit level – more capable assessments of human health changes associated with climate change 12 The Role of NCAR Click to edit Master title style • Option A: Add human health specialists and ouredit domain •expand Click to Master text styles • •Option B: Work Second level in the “weather and climate services” framework – focus on providing our List of Nominations •data Third level and model output to a key, identified user •(the Fourth healthlevel community) in a utilizable format • •Option C: Deliberately define new partnerships Fifth level (NIH, NCAR-NSF, Universities) to create an independent focus on (Center?) Health and the Environment 13 Option C: NIH, NCAR-NSF, Click University to edit Master Partnership title style • Objective – bring the discipline of forecasting to •the Click to community edit Master text styles health • •Mechanism Second level – create an intersection between climate and weather List of Nominations •NCAR/community Third level forecasting and prediction capabilities and the •health Fourth level community Fifth level • •Funding - Seek NIH, perhaps EPA, funding • Expertise - Health expertise (and center) not at NCAR – NCAR/community is key collaborator 14 Bottom Line Click to edit Master title style • Capture the “future” by using our mission to enable other disciplines through deliberate •partnerships Click to edit Master text styles Second • •Our internallevel growth has a clearer litmus test List of Nominations the level of connection to our mission •based Thirdonlevel • •Health is just one example. Fourth level • Fifth level Does it address the realities while still enabling the future that we know we must address? 15