Liberalisation of Trade in Environmental Goods: The Devil in the Details -Mahesh Sugathan IISD Mini-symposium on Trade and Investment Crowne Plaza, Copenhagen, 14 December.
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Liberalisation of Trade in Environmental Goods: The Devil in the Details -Mahesh Sugathan IISD Mini-symposium on Trade and Investment Crowne Plaza, Copenhagen, 14 December 2009.
Overview
• The Context: The Doha Negotiations on Environmental Goods and Services.
• Identifying and isolating climate-friendly goods to calculate trade flows. (The ‘dual-use’ problem) and other challenges.
• ICTSD’s Mapping Exercise and Trade Analysis in the Renewable Energy and Buildings Sectors. • What do the trade flows in key RE technologies and select number of Buildings Technologies look like?
• To what extent are trade barriers-particularly tariffs an obstacle to wider dissemination of RE technologies? How do they compare with other policy-related barriers?
• How can incentives to RE be designed so as not to create an unlevel playing field for equipment and service providers?
• How can the UNFCCC help create an enabling environment for the uptake of RE and EE products in developing countries?
The WTO Window: the DDA Negotiations on EGS
• Doha Ministerial Declaration: Para 31(iii) calls for “
the reduction or as appropriate elimination of tariff and non-tariff barriers to environmental goods and services .”
• No definition exists of what is an environmental good. This has made an agreement difficult to reach. • A number of goods from a set of 153 products proposed by a few WTO Members for further liberalisation include products relevant to addressing climate change.
• These fall in two categories: (1) RENEWABLE ENERGY PLANT and (2 ) HEAT AND ENERGY MANAGEMENT • Out of this set of 153,US-EU informal 2007 proposal to liberalise 43 climate friendly goods identified by the World Bank and climate friendly services on an accelerated basis. Zero tariffs on these goods by 2013.
The Problem of ‘Dual –Use’ Case 1: Case 2:
Pipes
6-digit HS code entry (841360) :
Pumps for liquids, whether or not fitted with a measuring device; other rotary positive displacement pumps
Environmental Good
Ex-Out:
Pumps for Sewage and Wastewater treatment
Non-environmental good
Other pumps
As an Environmental Good:
Used in Solar Hot Water Systems
As a Non Environmental Good:
Used in Oil and Gas Transportation
Non-environmental good
Other pumps
Climate-relevant Environmental Goods-What has been going on in the WTO?
• Qatar : includes natural gas fired generation systems and advanced gas-generation systems .
• Saudi Arabia: includes natural gas as well as a range of petroleum-based derivatives and other materials relevant to carbon-capture and storage.
• Canada initially included hydrogen and bio-diesel; New Zealand :methanol and bio-diesel-later dropped.
• Brazil has informally proposed bio-fuels and bio-fuel technologies.
• Glass Insulation (Japan and New Zealand). Fluorescent Lamps (Japan, Canada, New Zealand and the United States).
• Some Members have proposed a that would evolve. products of interest.
‘review mechanism’ • Members still deadlocked with regard to modalities of negotiations; most developing countries yet to identify to identify and extend liberalisation benefits to new technologies
Other Key Challenges
• Scope of the basket-what to include? Agricultural products, those based on PPMs?
• How to capture evolving technologies and new products?
• Identifying a ‘critical mass’ of exportables for developing countries.
• Technology transfer and special and differential treatment.
ICTSD’s Work on Climate-Friendly Environmental Goods Technology mapping studies in 4 key mitigation sectors identified by the IPCC Energy Buildings Transport Industry Specification of technologies for mitigation and identification of corresponding goods Definition of HS codes at 6 digit and beyond; options for new classification Analysis of trade flows, tariff and non-tariff barriers, DCA, GHG mitigation potential Research and analytical insight into UNFCCC negotiations on (potential for trade to enhance) transfer of technology
•
Findings from ICTSD Mapping Studies and Trade Analysis in the Renewable Energy Supply and Buildings Sectors.
•
ICTSD Analytical Exercise conducted with support of UNEP
Methodology
• RE Technologies Mapped by ECN / Buildings by TERI and peer reviewed by IPCC experts.
• RE classified into 78 product categories ( covering solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, ocean and biomass). Buildings classified into 35 product catgeories covering building envelope (insulation materials); heating, ventilation, air conditioning and refrigeration (HVAC R);lighting; renewable-energy use in buildings and stoves • • Some were removed as it was extremely difficult to identify end-use.
Caveat:
Not all trade figures are representative of RE supply products. Because the 6 digit codes often include a number of un related products these get ‘captured’ in statistics. Further some products like ball bearings are used for instance in wind turbines as well as other purposes. Also plastic foam important for insulation but have other uses. Yet both included as they are important for RE and Builidngs.
Exports of RES products and components that may be used in the RES sector, 2007 ( USD millions) Exporter (all)
All countries Germany China Japan United States France Italy United Kingdom Netherlands Belgium Korea, Rep. Taiwan, China Sweden Denmark Mexico Spain Singapore Austria Switzerland Thailand Canada EU-27 Intra-EU-27 EU-27 (excl intra-EU)
Exports (US million)
240238 34587 28378 23511 22072 12265 12197 7264 7040 6283 6245 5825 5240 5220 4606 4567 4282 4192 3693 3411 3325 116054 70211 45843
Exporter (developing countries*)
Developing countries* China Korea, Rep. Taiwan, China Mexico Singapore Thailand Brazil Malaysia India Turkey Philippines South Africa Viet Nam Argentina Saudi Arabia Tunisia Colombia Pakistan El Salvador Kazakhstan
Exports (US million)
67535 28378 6245 5825 4606 4282 3411 3252 2949 2321 1416 971 718 590 443 264 195 173 160 145 136
Source:
COMTRADE using WITS
Imports of RES products and components that may be used in the RES sector, 2007 ( USD millions) Importer (all)
All countries United States Germany China Spain France Hong Kong, China Korea, Rep. Japan Italy United Kingdom Mexico Netherlands Canada Taiwan, China Belgium Singapore Russian Federation Saudi Arabia Sweden Thailand EU-27 Intra-EU-27 EU-27 (excl intra-EU)
Source:
COMTRADE using WITS
Imports (US million)
248080 30430 22203 21179 8923 8879 8843 8667 8513 8225 7754 7016 6805 6638 5575 5207 4541 4384 3553 3542 3438 92249 61560 30689
Importer (developing countries*)
Developing countries* China Hong Kong, China Korea, Rep. Mexico Taiwan, China Singapore Saudi Arabia Thailand India Malaysia Brazil United Arab Emirates Viet Nam Turkey South Africa Qatar Kuwait Argentina Nigeria Kazakhstan
Imports (US million)
95720 21179 8843 8667 7016 5575 4541 3553 3438 3434 2689 2519 2482 2280 2155 1365 1220 1206 1102 1056 965
Tariffs on Renewable Energy Technologies, Equipment and Components
Rus s ian Federation Turk ey Thailand Taiwan, China South Afric a Singapore Philippines Peru Pak is tan Mex ic o Malay s ia Korea, Rep.
India Hong Kong, China China Chile Braz il Argentina United States Switz erland Norway Japan European Union Canada Aus tralia BND MFN 0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
Source: WTO Databases using WITS
Some interesting findings on Trade Flows in RE equipment
•
Emerging economies important players, though their share of trade is less than half that of developed countries
. •
Components for solar and wind appear more tradeable than for geothermal, hydro and ocean
•
Top exporters of RE equipment may not always be top deployers of RE
. China’s exports of solar panels to Germany and Spain were driven by favourable policy environment for solar energy generation.
•
In other cases correlation is clearer
as in wind-turbines for Denmark and wind energy generation.
•Thus
deployment of RE usually depends on favorable ‘enabling’ market environment
. •
Regional and preferential trading agreements may affect trade profile
for example- Central American and Caribbean countries are top importers of bio ethanol from Brazil which they export to US as dehydrated ethanol.
Tariffs have been found to be less significant as an explanatory variable for increased exports or imports as compared to the share of renewables in a country’s grid and subsidies.
Summary of Trade analysis and Trends in Major Buildings Product Categories
• Thermal Envelope (Insulation) Major producers European companies. Many use subsidaries and joint ventures rather than direct exports to supply foreign markets.
Most exports and imports between developed countries. China the exception (4 th largest exporter and importer).
Developed countries mostly apply single-digit tariffs. Higher for some developing countries and Russian Fed.
Summary of Trade analysis and Trends in Major Buildings Product Categories • HVAC
Developing countries account for significant portion of HVAC exports -esp air-conditioners but developed countries predominate in central heating boilers and heat pumps. Top importers predominantly developed countries.
Major exporters tend to comply with standards in export markets and also develop their own MEPs.
Tariffs also mainly in single digits except for a few primarily developing countries.
Summary of Trade analysis and Trends in Major Buildings Product Categories • Lighting
Share of EE lighting has been increasing while that of incandescent and tungsten lamps falling. Same is true of developing country imports.
China is the world largest exporter of CFL, with a share of 56 per cent of world exports in 2007 (or 75% if intra EU trade is excluded).China’s share in world exports of incandescent lamps and tungsten halogen filament lamps is only around 15 per cent.
Summary of Trade analysis and Trends in Major Buildings Product Categories
•
Lighting (Contd)
With regard to tariffs, the European Communities have bound its import duties at 2.7 per cent ad valorem and the United States at 2.4 per cent. The simple average of the applied tariff is 8.7 per cent and the trade weighted (using 2007 import values) average rate is 4.9 per cent. Among the 30 largest importers, Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, India, Malaysia, Mexico, the Philippines, the Russian Federation, Thailand and South Africa have tariffs (applied rates) of 10 per cent or more. Some of these countries, however, have their own production of CFL and other highly-efficient lamps and apply other measures than tariffs to discourage the use of inefficient lamps. For example, applied rates in Argentina and Brazil are 18 per cent ad valorem (the common external tariff for MERCOSUR), but Brazil is subsidizing CFL and Argentina is banning the use of inefficient incandescent lamps.
Summary of Trade Analysis and Trends in Major Buildings Product Categories • Solar energy products
• Intra EU trade is highest, Germany, Japan and China are significant exporters.
• In specific products such as solar water heaters which is most tradeable.China is emerging as the largest exporter. • Regional markets also important, e.g. Mexico exports to the US, Turkey to Europe, China to Japan. • Tariffs low. Most countries have zero applied tariffs or PV cells and modules all (except Mexico and South Africa) have bound rates.
• Solar water heaters-many large importing developing countries have higher rates of 20 percent or more.
Summary of Trade analysis and Trends in Major Buildings Product Categories
• Household stoves • • • • • • • 2 types identified-solar stoves and wood pellet stoves World trade was around $ 5 billion in 2007 (only part of this corresponds to the types of stoves being analysed in this paper). Developing countries accounted for more than half the value of world exports excluding intra-EU trade. Almost half of 2007 world imports of stoves (in value terms, excluding intra EU trade) were imported into the United States. Imports into developing countries and countries in transition in Asia were worth around $700 million, accounting for only around 18 per cent of world trade. The top importers were Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and Kazakhstan, but imports were spread over a large range of developing countries with over 60 developing countries registering imports of over $ 1 million each. This suggests that stoves are largely produced locally, with some imports taking place (perhaps to acquire special stoves or filling local shortages). Tariffs are high in many developing countries reaching 50 percent in the case of Morocco.
Summary of Main Market Drivers in Renewable Energy Generation and RE Product Categories Renewable Energy Generation and RE Products
•Laws requiring utilities to purchase all electricity generated from renewable sources.
•Laws requiring renewables to be a certain percentage of all power generation.
•Subsidies for investments in component manufacturing.
•Exemptions or reductions in taxes for component manufacturers and preferential tariffs (feed-in tariffs) for electricity from renewables.
Summary of Main Market Drivers in Buildings Product Categories Building Envelope (Insulation ) HVAC Lighting RE Use in Buildings
•EE requirements in building codes.
•Incentives esp for building renovations.
•High energy prices •Energy Neutral Houses target • High energy prices •Regulatory requirements (MEPs) and labelling.
•EE requirements in building codes and financial and fiscal incentives for new products. Eg: Heat-pumps and boilers.
•Govt regulations and Incentives. Eg: Voluntary market transformation programmes •International initiatives such as efficient lighting initiative (ELI) launched by IFC and GEF •Regulation •Fiscal incentives and subsidies
Solar Stoves
•Financial Incentives and subsidies •Tax-credits
Environment, Market Creation and Fair-trade. Complementary or Contradictory?
Regulations and Incentives for Renewable Energy Generation.
Enables
Markets for RE Goods and Services.
Supply
Markets for Building Efficiency Goods and Services.
Enables
Regulations and Incentives for Buildings Energy Efficiency.
If de-facto or de-jure link
Regulations and Incentives Favouring Domestic RE Equipment Manufacturers or Service Providers Possibly Distorting Trade in
Adverse effects Adverse effects
Competitive Equipment and Service Providers Possibly Distorting Trade in
If de-facto or de-jure link
Regulations and Incentives Favouring Domestic EE Buildings Equipment Manufacturers or Service Providers
Non-tariff measures: Much work to be done
• Diverse range of non-tariff measures ranging from standards and labelling, customs procedures and immigration formalities may affect delivery of climate-friendly goods and services. So far tariffs have gotten most attention in the WTO.
• At present draft UNFCCC negotiating text includes proposals for countries to “…participate, to the extent possible, in international programmes that support the development and use of common performance standards, testing, verification and certification programmes.” • The language in the UNFCCC text has echoes of Article 2.4 in the TBT Agreement, which calls on members to base their national standards on international ones, with some limited exceptions.
Conclusions, Way Forward and Fuel for Thought
• Trade liberalisation done in isolation may not lead to a significant uptake in climate-friendly technologies. Needs to be part of a package.
• RE Market creation and energy efficiency may need supportive measures outside WTO. The latter in turn may enhance trade further.
• Some incentives may have a trade-distorting impact if they benefit domestic equipment manufacturers. There may be ‘good’ and ‘bad’ green subsidies.
• Implications for climate change negotiations esp discussions on technology and financing?
• What role can UNFCCC particularly play? What policies should it support? Proposal for international fund to support ‘feed-in’ tariffs for renewable energy. Funds to leverage private-investment.
• Sunset clause for financial support? When? Grid-parity?