Transcript Population censuses and sample surveys as a source of fertility statistics 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses Workshop on Civil Registration and.

Population censuses and sample
surveys as a source of fertility
statistics
2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses
Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region
Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007
Methods used for fertility statistics
Reverse
survival
The
own-child
Birth history
reconstruction
Birth histories
Fertility
statistics
Recent
births
Children
ever born
2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses
Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region
Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007
Reverse survival – the rational
 Number of births in the population during the year
prior to the census = population under 1 year of age
in the census * reverse survival factor
 Reverse survival – adjustment for mortality (persons
died before the census was taken)
 If no complete civil registration data, reverse survival
can be used to estimate the following for 15 years
prior to census (some surveys):
 Number of births
 Crude birth rates
 General fertility rates
 Assumption: No migration! (or can be neglected)
2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses
Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region
Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007
Reverse survival
- Information needed
 Age – by single years
 Better if collected as date of birth
 Level of mortality, can be obtained from
 Children ever-born and surviving (for estimated
life tables)
 Total number of persons in a year (for crude
birth rate)
 Number of reproductive age women
(general fertility rate)
2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses
Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region
Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007
Reverse survival
- Estimation
 Total number of births x years before
the census = population x year of age
in the census * reverse survival factor
2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses
Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region
Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007
Reverse survival - tabulation
 Population by single years of age
2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses
Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region
Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007
Reverse survival - quality
 The quality of reverse survival estimates of
births and birth rates depends on the
accuracy of
 Age distribution (most important)
 Reverse survival factors
 Extend of migration (may be important to small
areas)
 Assessment of quality: compare estimates
from different sources at different times
2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses
Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region
Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007
The own-children method
the rational
 Match the children reverse-survived
with their mother  disaggregate
reverse-survived births by age and/or
other characteristics of mother
 Any person under age 15  child
 Note: biological children only
2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses
Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region
Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007
The own-children method
- information needed
 Age, by single years
 Is mother of the child alive and living
in the same household?
 If yes, which person is the mother?
 Line number of the mother (for this child)
OR
 Relation to head of household (applies for
nuclear households or similar types)
2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses
Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region
Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007
The own-children method
- tabulation
Age of
mother
Age of child
0
1
…
13
14
15
16
…
63
64
Non-own
children
2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses
Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region
Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007
The own-children method
- estimation
 Age specific birth rate 10-15 years
preceding a census or survey
2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses
Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region
Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007
The own-children method
- quality
 The quality of own-children estimates
of age-specific fertility rates depends
on the accuracy of
 The quality of matching!
 Age distribution (more important if age
exaggeration)
 Reverse survival factors
 Extend of migration (may be important
to small areas)
2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses
Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region
Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007
Birth history reconstruction
– the rational
 Own-children methods:
 If number of own-children = number of
children ever-born  birth history
 If number of own-children < number of
children ever-born  some children live
elsewhere or died
 Birth history reconstruction:
 Imputes years of births for surviving
children living elsewhere and deceased
children
2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses
Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region
Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007
Birth history reconstruction
- information needed
 Age, by single years
 Identify mother (line number or
relation to the household head)
 Number of children ever born
 Number of surviving children
2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses
Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region
Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007
Birth history reconstruction
- Tabulation (age-parity)
Year of birth of first child
(years prior to census)
55
54
…
2
1
Age of
women at
end of year
of first birth
0
1
…
*
*
…
*
*
10
*
…
*
*
11
…
…
…
*
*
63
*
64
2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses
Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region
Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007
Birth history reconstruction
- Tabulation (parity-duration)
Year of second child
(years prior to census)
Completed
years in
parity 1 at
end of year
of second
birth
21
20
…
2
1
*
*
…
*
*
0
*
…
*
*
1
…
…
…
*
*
19
*
20
2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses
Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region
Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007
Birth history reconstruction
-estimation
 Age-parity-specific birth rates (all
women at certain age)
 Birth rates specific for parity and
duration in parity
2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses
Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region
Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007
Birth history reconstruction
- quality
 Additional quality concerns:
 Imputation of dates of birth for non-own
and deceased children
 If level of mortality is low and most children
under age 15 lives in the same household
as their mother, the influence of imputation
is minimum.
2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses
Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region
Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007
Children ever born – some background
 Widely used for over 50 years (although
still a lot of problems)
 Important for countries do not have
complete birth registration
 Also important for countries with complete
birth registration
 Provide fertility measures on birth order and
parity of women
 Study fertility by socio-economic characteristics
2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses
Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region
Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007
Children ever born
- information needed
 How many children has [this woman] had
in her lifetime?
 incl. all live births
 Could be elaborated into a number of questions
 Asked to all women
 Sex of the child  sex ratio at birth
2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses
Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region
Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007
Children ever born
- tabulation
Age of
women
Number of children ever
born
0
1
…
14
15+
CEB not
stated
Total
women
Total
children
born
10-14
15-19
…
80-84
85+
NS
Total
2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses
Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region
Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007
Children ever born
- tabulation
 A few important issues:
 Do not group the numbers of children,
except the last open category
 Distinguish children ever born not stated
from no children
2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses
Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region
Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007
Children ever born
- estimation






Parity distribution
Parity progression ratios
Average number of children ever born
Completed fertility
Total fertility rates
Age-specific birth rates
2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses
Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region
Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007
Children ever born
- quality
 Underreporting of children ever born
 More serious for older women
 Can use certain adjustment to fix
 Failure to record childless
 Proportion of childless women too low and
average number of children born too high.
 Still a serious problem in many countries
 Selection error
 Use women enumerated in census/survey to
represent past experience – not a big problem
though
2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses
Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region
Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007
Recent births
- information needed
1. Did [this woman] have any live birth
during the past 12 months (if multiple,
indicate number)?
OR
2. What was the year and month of your
most recent birth
OR
3. Have there been any live births in this
household during the last 12 months?
2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses
Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region
Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007
Recent births
- tabulations
Question 1 and 3:
Age of women
Number of births in the last
12 months
Question 2:
Age of women
# of women having birth in
Jan 05
Feb 05
…
Dec 05
2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses
Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region
Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007
Recent births
- estimation
 The questions are subject to underreporting of births – certain
adjustment is needed
 Age of women during the census to
be adjusted to age at giving birth
2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses
Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region
Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007
Recent births
- quality
 Reporting errors:
 Poor performance of fieldworkers
 “reference period error”: uncertain of the date of
birth vs the reference period
 Reluctant to report
 Selection errors:
 Excluded women had a birth recently but died before
the census
 Excluded household had a birth recently but dissolved
before the census
 Not significant in most cases, however could become
an issue when many deaths occurred in a short
period (HIV/AIDS)
2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses
Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region
Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007
Birth histories – some background
 An important source on infant and
child mortality
 Include many questions, limited to
5000 or 10000 women
 WFS or DHS
 Age-specific birth rates or mortality
rates
2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses
Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region
Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007
Birth histories – information needed
 Birth history of a woman:
 All children she has had
 Living or deceased?
 Characteristics of the children:
 Sex
 Date of birth
 Type of birth (single, twin etc)
2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses
Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region
Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007
Birth histories – quality
 Reporting errors
2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses
Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region
Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007
Conclusion
 Methods are available when complete
civil registration system does not
exist. Civil registration, however, is
still the best source.
 Can also be used to evaluate the
quality of civil registration data
 Quality concerns
2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses
Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region
Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007
References:
 Handbook on the Collection of Fertility
and Mortality Data, United Nations
(2003)
 Manual X Indirect Techniques for
Demographic Estimation, United Nations
(1983)
2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses
Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region
Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007
Example – Romania
2002 civil registration
2001 census
Age
Births
female
population
F
Children
ever born
Total
female
P
P/F
15-19
28503
795868
0.06
798298
42648
18.72
306.75
20-24
77518
943208
0.38
852731
339884
2.51
6.67
25-29
66793
905641
0.79
829758
802501
1.03
1.31
30-34
36063
963055
1.06
955730
1367407
0.70
0.66
35-39
8395
613781
1.19
586945
1102760
0.53
0.45
40-44
2327
768725
1.22
723378
1522711
0.48
0.39
45-49
139
820343
1.23
809430
1761109
0.46
0.37
Source: United Nations Demographic Yearbook
2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses
Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region
Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007
Example - Bahrain
2002 civil registration
2001 census
Age
Births
Female
Population
F
Children
Ever born
Total
female
P
P/F
15-19
349
25433
0.01
496
1037
0.48
47.51
20-24
2645
27373
0.10
8392
9259
0.91
3.65
25-29
4147
27436
0.15
26150
16925
1.55
1.69
30-34
3413
28453
0.12
47860
20388
2.35
1.45
35-39
2299
26342
0.09
67362
21079
3.20
1.49
40-44
655
20474
0.03
67835
17557
3.86
1.58
45-49
51
13181
0.00
49733
11645
4.27
1.70
Source: United Nations Demographic Yearbook
2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses
Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region
Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007
Example - Kazakhstan
1999 civil registration
1999 census
Age
Births
Female
population
F
Children
ever born
Total
female
P
P/F
15-19
22334
705110
0.04
33746
677565
0.05
1.14
20-24
80991
653622
0.46
379186
624933
0.61
1.31
25-29
56876
560376
1.05
799505
584182
1.37
1.31
30-34
32276
529538
1.46
1120327
558784
2.00
1.38
35-39
15542
606078
1.66
1501616
615835
2.44
1.47
40-44
3120
542740
1.74
1479504
542719
2.73
1.57
45-49
205
455255
1.75
1343993
455531
2.95
1.69
Source: United Nations Demographic Yearbook
2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses
Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region
Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007
Data availability
- children ever born*
Country
Egypt
Bahrain
Iraq
Palestine
Qatar
Yemen
Year of data
1986
1991 and 2001
1987 and 1997
1997
1986
1994
Source: United Nations Demographic Yearbook
2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses
Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region
Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007