Twenty years of the Hague Convention: a Statistical Review Peter Selman Newcastle University, UK [email protected] June 2015 Newcastle University, England, UK.
Download ReportTranscript Twenty years of the Hague Convention: a Statistical Review Peter Selman Newcastle University, UK [email protected] June 2015 Newcastle University, England, UK.
Twenty years of the Hague Convention: a Statistical Review Peter Selman Newcastle University, UK [email protected] June 2015 Newcastle University, England, UK A Demographic History of ICA • Although intercountry adoption is often seen as starting with the adoptions from South Korea after the Korean war, there were also many adoptions during and following World War 2, while the movement of children to distant lands was a feature of British policy from the 19th century to the 1960s – the story of the child migrants. So the period 1995-2015 is just a small part of the demographic history. • Since the end of WW2 I estimate at least one million children have moved to another country for international adoption. Intercountry Adoption 1963-2013 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 WORLD KOREA 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1963 1970 1980 1987 1995 2004 2013 Sources of Data for Estimates • Few countries sending children for ICA have kept detailed records over the whole period in which such adoptions took place. An exception is Korea, which records 165,000 international adoptions since 1953. • For receiving States longest sequences are for USA and Sweden. My estimates are based on data from 20-24 states. SOUTH KOREA 1953-2010 Total Intercountry Adoptions = 165,000 Annual number of Adoptions 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 Intercountry Adoption 1990-99 1990 1993 1995 1997 1999 1990-99 7,093 7,377 8,987 12,743 16,363 102,264 2,956 2,790 3,035 3,537 3,597 31,703 n/a 1,896 2,161 2,019 2,177 14,788 320 1,740 2,020 1,795 2,020 15,694 1,113 934 895 834 1,019 TOTAL 14,037 17,778 22,723 26,788 32,974 (11) (15) (19) (20) (22) 9,670 222,758 (11-22) USA France Italy Canada Sweden KOREA 1976-2013; CHINA 1990-2013 16,000 14,000 12,000 Axis Title 10,000 8,000 CHINA 6,000 4,000 2,000 1985 1995 2005 2013 ICA in the st 21 Century • More than 380,000 children were adopted world-wide to 23/4 countries between 2000 and 2009, the most for any decade in history. • From 2010-2013 there were a further 88,000 – and 2014 total seems likely to be 12-13,000 so that we can say that since 2000 there have been at least 480,000, nearly half my total estimate of ICA since 1945. • From 1995 – 2014 total would be over 600,000. Intercountry Adoption 2001-2013 2001 USA 2004 2007 2010 2013 2000-13 19,224 22,884 19,613 12,149 7,094 234,032 3,428 5,641 3,648 2,891 1,191 47.636 3,094 4,079 3,162 3,508 1,343 43,676 1,797 3,402 3,420 4,130 2,825 42,048 Spain France Italy Canada TOTAL 1,774 1,949 1,715 1,660 1,243 23,579 36,286 45,383 37,256 28,843 16,147 469,133 (23) (23) (24) (24) (24) (23/4) ICA after the Hague Convention • In summary the ten years after the convention came into force saw the largest rise in inter-country adoption in the 70 years since WW2. • However, since 2004 there has been a dramatic decline and by 2013 the annual total was the lowest since 1993 . • In the tables below States of origin which have ratified the convention are in CAPITALS The Impact of the Hague on Numbers • Preliminary Document No. 3 looks at this possibility for both receiving States and States of origin (para 61-75) and notes that a decrease in numbers occurred in receiving States joining the convention after 2004 – e.g. Ireland and the USA - but that numbers also fell in most States joining in the preceding decade who had typically experienced an increase after ratification. • The next two slides look at States of origin. States with an increase after joining State Year of EIF BURKINA FASO 1996 MOLDOVA 1998 SOUTH AFRICA 2003 Previous 3 yrs Subseqent 3 years Last 3 years 2011-2013 81 199 101 350 225 33 735 348 498 421 HUNGARY 2005 454 265 GUATEMALA 2003 6,500 11,532 73 MALI 2006 304 462 320 KENYA 2007 108 189 283 States with a decrease after joining State Year of EIF Previous 3 Subseqen yrs t 3 years Last 3 yrs 2011-2013 CHILE LATVIA 1999 2002 509 417 187 329 335 391 CHINA VIET NAM 2006 2012 35,830 2,479 23,625 1,130 11,896 MADAGASCAR CAMBODIA KAZAKHSTAN 2004 2007 2010 1,020 620 1,869 427 398 245 162 93 245 The Decline in ICA 2009 - 2013 • The total number of adoptions fell from 45,383 in 2004 to 29,482 in 2009 – a fall of 35%. • In the next five years the annual total fell further to 16,147 in 2013 - a decline of 45 per cent. • The next slide shows how this varied between the major receiving States Receiving States 2009-2013 2009 2011 2013 % Change 2009 to 2013 DENMARK 496 338 174 - 65 % SPAIN 3,006 2,573 1,191 - 60% FRANCE 3,017 1,995 1,343 - 55% ALL STATES 29,482 23,551 16,147 - 45 % USA 12,753 9,320 7,094 - 44 % CANADA 1,695 1,513 1,243 - 37 % ITALY 3,964 4,022 2,825 - 29 % Top 9 States of Origin : 1980-2013 1980-89 1998 2004 2010 2013 Korea Russia China CHINA CHINA India China Russia Ethiopia Ethiopia Colombia Viet Nam Guatemala Russia Russia Brazil Korea Korea Haiti Ukraine Sri Lanka COLOMBIA Ukraine COLOMBIA Congo Chile INDIA COLOMBIA Viet Nam COLOMBIA Philippines Guatemala Ethiopia Korea Philippines Guatemala ROMANIA Haiti Ukraine Haiti Peru Brazil INDIA INDIA BULGARIA Top 4 States of Origin 2003-2013 Annual Number of Adoptions 16,000 14,000 China 12,000 Russia 10,000 Guatemala 8,000 Ethiopia 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Intercountry Adoptions from four continents – as % of all 2004 2007 2010 2013 ASIA 42% 40% 36% 35% EUROPE 31% 21% 20% 23% Latin America 17% 23% 19% 12% AFRICA 7% 13% 22% 28% Adoptions from Asia • Since 1998 China has been the most important source of children worldwide: 140,000 adopted between 1992 and 2013. • Until 1990 Korea was the main source of children for ICA and by 2013 had sent more than 165,000. In the 1980s 3 of the top 5 states of origin were Asian: Korea, India & Sri Lanka. • In 2004 42 per cent of adoptions were from Asia but by 2013 this had fallen to 35 per cent. KOREA 1976-2010: CHINA 1990-2011 16,000 NUMBER OF ADOPTIONS 14,000 12,000 10,000 KOREA 8,000 CHINA 6,000 4,000 2,000 1976 1980 1990 2000 2010 Adoptions from Asia 2003-2013 2003 2005 2007 2010 2013 2003-13 CHINA 11,231 14,483 8,748 5,429 3,406 Korea 2,332 2,121 VIET NAM 1,226 86,873 1,125 227 15,623 1,698 1,260 295 11,379 931 1,198 1,169 875 1,013 607 351 8,438 PHILIPPINES 412 508 571 496 534 5,448 THAILAND 489 466 442 303 306 4,236 5,566 142,273 INDIA All Asia 17,608 20,559 14,767 10,238 CHINA 2003-2013 Country 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2014 USA 6,857 7,903 5,453 3,000 2,589 2,306 2,040 Spain 1,043 2,753 1,059 Canada 1,115 960 Netherlands 567 Sweden France Italy TOTAL 573 677 293 662 377 288 216 157 666 365 283 197 136 137 373 462 280 248 107 59 50 360 458 176 102 87 99 0 0 0 23 142 161 11,231 14,48 8,748 5,012 4,373 3,406 INDIA 1998-2013 Country 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 2014 USA 478 466 320 228 119 Italy 194 102 136 148 76 Canada 179 127 36 54 20 Denmark 120 93 30 7 3 Spain 97 109 79 35 7 Sweden 78 60 38 23 5 846 627 351 TOTAL 1,618 1,247 136 36 7 Eastern Europe 2003-2013 Russia Ukraine BULGARIA Belarus ROMANIA POLAND LITHUANIA LATVIA ALL EUROPE 2003 7,737 2,052 965 656 471 347 85 67 13,189 2004 9,384 2,021 387 616 289 420 103 127 14,011 2008 4,132 1,577 140 7 0 408 127 90 7,105 2013 1,793 642 411 6 15 304 77 131 3,777 RUSSIA 2004-2013 2004 2005 2007 2011 2013 2014 US (FY) 5,865 4,639 2,310 970 250 Spain 1,618 1,262 955 712 350 Italy 738 628 492 781 730 France 445 357 402 286 185 Germany 189 111 195 231 66 Israel 95 73 108 102 67 Total 9,384 7,493 4,881 3,424 1,793 2 46 Intercountry Adoption from Africa • For many years intercountry adoption from Africa was rare. • However, the growing demand for young infants - and fall in numbers from many other States of origin – has changed all that, notably in Ethiopia, which sent 4,575 children in 2009. • Numbers have fallen in most countries since then but rose between 2010 and 2013 in Uganda (82 to 292) and Congo RD (from 181 to 587). Congo has now suspended international adoptions. % of Adoptions from Africa 2003 2005 2007 2009 2013 All countries: % of adoptions from Africa 6% 8% 13 % 22 % 28 % % of adoptions to USA from Africa 2% 4% 9% 23 % 30 % % of adoptions to France from Africa 24 % 26 % 29 % 33 % 42% % of adoptions to Spain from Africa 4% 5% 15 % 26 % 23 % TOP AFRICAN STATES 2012-3 2013 2012 2009 2007 2003 Ethiopia 2,005 2,800 4,575 3,034 855 Congo DR 587 518 156 65 26 Uganda 292 249 74 57 12 Nigeria 243 266 185 83 64 Sth AFRICA 222 173 292 212 188 Ghana 190 186 121 58 18 Mali 13 154 196 158 136 All Africa 4,450 5,292 6,510 4,820 2,344 Standardised Rates 2009 AFRICA Adoptions Other Adoptions per 1,000 Countries per 1,000 births births Peak rate (year) Ethiopia 1.28 HAITI 4.52 9.6 (2010) Ghana 0.5 Ukraine 3.24 5.0 (2003) Cote d’Ivoire 0.4 Korea 3.16 13.3 (1985) MALI 0.35 Russia 2.59 7.7 (2004) S AFRICA 0.27 Guatemala 1.75 10.8 (2007) Congo RD 0.05 CHINA 0.28 0.8 (2005) Nigeria 0.03 INDIA 0.03 0.05 (2003) Adoption from Latin America • In the 1980s six of the top 10 sending countries were from Latin America. In 2008 there were three Guatemala, Colombia and Haiti; by 2013 only one: Colombia. • By 2008, Haiti had became a major source for France, Canada, the Netherlands and the USA , peaking in 2010 after the earthquake. • Brazil still sends 3-500 children a year but most are older or have special needs. • Chile and El Salvador send less than 100 a year, compared to 5,000+ and 2,000+ respectively between 1980 and 1989. Latin America 2003-2013 2003 2005 2007 2010 2013 2000-13 GUATEMALA 2,676 3,873 4,854 58 26 24,164 COLOMBIA 1,750 1,472 1,635 1,828 566 16,152 HAITI 1,049 922 755 2,489 546 11,124 BRAZIL 472 479 485 380 241 4,691 PERU 114 174 171 24 111 1,577 BOLIVIA 274 252 152 73 22 1,564 MEXICO 122 163 181 117 37 1,354 The Changing Profile of ICA • “Special Needs” adoption is becoming more common and there are a number of other characteristics of international adoptions which have changed alongside the global decline in numbers – older age of children placed and increased number of sibling groups. Age of Children Adopted in Key receiving States 2005-2013 2005 2009 2013 % over % under % over % under % over % under 5 1 5 1 5 1 Italy 47% 6% 58% 7% 53% 5% France 24% 32% 34% 21% 43% 8% USA 16% 42% 25% 25% n/a n/a Iceland 6% 17% 29% 6% n/a n/a Australia 8% 47% 9% 37% 19% 22% SPECIAL NEEDS ADOPTION • For the 2010 Hague Special Commission, states were asked to indicate how many of the children adopted had “special needs”, defined as • “those who may be suffering from a behaviour disorder or trauma, physically or mentally disabled, older children (usually above 7 years of age) or are part of a sibling group” • There remains a lack of agreement about what exactly the term covers – Italy has ‘speciale’ and ‘particolare’ • The issue of special needs adoption is seen as a key topic for this Special Commission Children with special needs - selected sending countries (Hague) 2005 2009 2013 CHILE 100% 100% 75% LATVIA 53% 80% 97% ALBANIA 59% 66% n/a LITHUANIA 30% 71% 71% CHINA 9% 49% n/a % of Children Adopted from China with special needs (Hague) Sweden Netherlands USA All States France Norway Spain 2005 2007 2009 6% 13% 14% 9% 6% 0.1% 0.1% 25% 42% 42% 30% 13% 7% 4% 69% 66% 61% 49% 34% 28% 9%