A Changing climate? Earth's climate pattern is now being put at risk by humankind's actions, Gore said.
Download ReportTranscript A Changing climate? Earth's climate pattern is now being put at risk by humankind's actions, Gore said.
A Changing climate? Earth's climate pattern is now being put at risk by humankind's actions, Gore said. "We face what I think should be described as a full-scale planetary emergency." While aware such a phrase sounds shrill to many ears, Gore added that "unfortunately, I believe it is exactly dead-on accurate." Gore cited increases in carbon dioxide, the thickening of the atmospheric blanket enveloping Earth, rising sea levels and the increased acidification of the world’s oceans that could completely disrupt the marine food chain. "We have a climate crisis," Gore said. http://www.space.com/news/061026_gore_space.html http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2700.htm http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2006/aug/aug06.html 1990 2006 1990 2006 http://glaciers.pdx.edu/gdb/maps/oregon_website/or_glaciers.html 1901 Do observed changes in global climate constitute a ‘crisis’? Are human actions a cause or a cure? Is there evidence of significant shifts in global climate before industrialization and potential human induced changes? Is the global climate changing due to human action? Can changes in human action influence trends in global climate change (can we direct the changes in climate)? Why should anyone listen to me? Doctoral dissertation focused on C budget of the former Soviet Union (potential C release/sequestration from natural and agricultural ecosystems) 1990-1993 Post-doctoral researcher investigating changes in the C budget of tropical forests of Africa 1993-1997 I have worked with and discussed climate change with people from NASA, the EPA, the USGS and from the (in)famous IPCC (inter-governmental panel on climate change) Refereed publications in the climate change arena Gaston G.G., S. Brown, M. Lorenzini and K.D. Singh; "State and Change in Carbon Pools in the Forests of Tropical Africa", Global Change Biology 1998, 4, 97-114. Gaston, G.G., P.M. Bradley, T.S. Vinson and T.P. Kolchugina; "GVI Classification of Vegetation and Landcover Regions in the Former Soviet Union as Inputs for Forest Ecosystem Modeling", Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing 1996, 63 - 1, 51-58. P. M. Bradley, G.G. Gaston, T. S. Vinson and T.P. Kolchugina "Simulating Carbon Storage in Forests of Eastern Russia" , J. of Water, Air and Soil Pollution, 1995, 82, 1-2. Brown S. and G. Gaston, "Use of Forest Inventories and Geographic Information Systems to Estimate Biomass Density of Tropical Forests: Application to Tropical Africa", Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 1995, 38 - 2-3, 157-168. Gaston, G.G. and T.P. Kolchugina; "Estimates of Phytomass and Net Primary Productivity in Terrestrial Ecosystems of the Former Soviet Union Identified by Classified Global Vegetation Index", World Resource Review 1995, 7 - 4, 525-540. Gaston G.G., P.L. Jackson, T. S. Vinson, and T. P. Kolchugina; "Identification of Carbon Quantifiable Regions in the Former Soviet Union Using Unsupervised Classification of AVHRR Global Vegetation Index Images", International Journal of Remote Sensing 1994, 15 - 16, 3199-3222. Gaston G.G., T.P. Kolchugina and T.S.Vinson; "Potential Effect of No-Till Management on Carbon in the Agricultural Soils of the Former Soviet Union", Agriculture Ecosystems and Environment 1993, 45, 295-309. My recent research.... Changes in Glacial Ice and Ice Cored Moraines Research performed in July 2006 explored changes in ice surface, ice marginal lakes, and ice-cored moraines on two glaciers in the High Cascades of the Pacific Northwest This research required a combination of air photo interpretation, and electrical resistance imaging. Chambers Lakes on South Sister August 2005 Carver Lake… An example of a glacial lake created by ice cored moraines. Chambers Lakes 1979 1989 2004 Note the dramatic change in extent of lower Chambers Lake and the sediment in the upper lake. Use of Electrical Resistivity to investigate the ice in a suspected ‘Ice Cored’ Moraine Site 2: Known Glacial Ice Site 1: Suspected Ice Cored Moraine The changing climate A montage of slides.... A wave cut terrace A wave cut terrace But where is the water? Extent of lakes in the Great Basin As of about 11,0000 years ago. A glacial valley in Glacier National Park. However, the glacier is gone.... The Athabasca Glacier in Alberta Rocky Mountain National Park Glacial cirques and valleys and again... No glaciers The Greenland Ice Sheet August 2001 Glacial Ice in North America... 11,000 years ago Glacial Ice in Europe about 11kya … when our ancestors were running around painting buffalos on cave walls in Southern France. Periods of glacial advance Inter-glacial warm periods WHY? Ice Core Data “An ice core from the right site can contain an uninterrupted, detailed climate record extending back hundreds of thousands of years. This record can include temperature, precipitation , chemistry and gas composition of the lower atmosphere, volcanic eruptions, solar variability, sea-surface productivity and a variety of other climate indicators.” Gas Concentrations in Air Bubbles (Greenland Ice Core Project, GISP) Depth (m) Total Air Gas Age Midpoint (ml/g) (yrs BP) 122.07 0.0861 167 2279.51 0.0879 40851 Temperature profile of ice from Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2). http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study//Paleoclimatology_IceCores/ Nature June 1999 Graph of CO2, temperature, and dust concentration measured from the Vostok, Antarctica ice core as reported by Petit et al., 1999 Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Variable in the atmosphere according to Petit et al. from 195 ppmv to 300 ppmv More carbon dioxide currently in the atmosphere than in the previous 420 thousand years Current atmosphere >350 ppmv Do atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide lead or lag behind climate change? Is 50-150 ppmv added by anthropogenic factors significant in climate change? The Holocene From Petit et. al. 1999 “A striking feature of the Vostok ...record is that the Holocene, which has already lasted for 11kyr, is by far the longest stable warm period recorded in Antarctica during the last 420 kyr.” THE HOLOCENE Graph of CO2, temperature, and dust concentration measured from the Vostok, Antarctica ice core as reported by Petit et al., 1999 Well... Mostly stable. The Thames last froze briefly in 1965…. The “Frost Faire” of London…. Common from 1564-1814 “…sleds, sliding with skates, bull-baiting, horse and coach races, puppet plays and interludes, cooks, tippling and other lewd places, so that it seemed to be a bacchanalian triumph, or carnival on the water." A Frost Fair on the Thames at Temple Stairs by Abraham Hondius, 1684. Sports on a Frozen River, probably ca. 1660 Aert van der Neer (Dutch, 1603/4–1677) http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/topstory/20011207iceage.html The Medieval Climatic optimum or Medieval warm period From the 10th to the 14th centuries the Northern Hemisphere endured a prolonged warm period. In the Northern Hemisphere: Agricultural production was stable Population expanded William ‘the Conqueror’. In 1066 he defeated Alfred ‘Fairhair’ and took over as king of England The “Doomsday book” was one of his first official actions as king.... “One of the most likely reasons for the record to be commissioned was for William to see how much tax he was getting from the country…” According to the Doomsday Book, high value vineyards were common in 1066... What was the last really good English wine you have purchased? Over the last two centuries it has been too cold and wet to grow good grapes in England. Norse Colonies in Greenland were established during the medieval warm period... and abandoned as the little ice age began Do these observed changes in the climate constitute a ‘crisis’? Are human actions a cause or a cure? Is there evidence of significant shifts in global climate before industrialization and potential human induced changes? YES! Is the global climate changing due to human action? INSUFFICENT DATA Can changes in human action influence trends in global climate change (can we direct the changes in climate)? UNLIKELY Meso-Scale climatic variability? Only recently have we identified mesoscale cycles such as ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation Event) “...in the late 1960s a Norwegian meteorologist, Jacob Bjerknes, was the first to see a connection between unusually warm sea-surface temperatures and the weak easterlies and heavy rainfall that accompany low-index conditions” http://library.thinkquest.org/20901/overview_1.htm The North Atlantic Oscillation “Probably the biggest and most powerful of these climate phenomena is the aptly named North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). While the North Atlantic Oscillation doesn't generate the catastrophic floods, climate changes, and carnage associated with El Niño, its effects are much more consistent and nearly as widespread.” http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/NAO/ GCM’s? How can a General Circulation Models (GCM) be expected to accurately predict climate 20-40 years in the future, when we do not have a solid understanding of climatological cycles that drive weather events? Sunspot Cycles… Climatic records suggest a very high correlation between periods of low sunspot activity and periods of colder climate e.g. the maunder minimum and the ‘little ice age’ http://www.windows.ucar.edu/tour/link=/sun/atmosphere/sunspots.html http://washingtontimes.com/national/20070116-123240-7888r_page2.htm The Washington Times 16 January 2007 “… Nigel Weiss, professor emeritus at the department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics at the University of Cambridge, past president of the Royal Astronomical Society, and a scientist as honored as they come. The science [concerning global warming] is anything but settled, he observes, except for one virtual certainty: “The world is about to enter a cooling period." … climate change is driven by factors other than man. "Variable behavior of the sun is an obvious explanation," he says, "and there is increasing evidence that earth's climate responds to changing patterns of solar magnetic activity." … sunspots flare up and settle down in cycles. Right now, the world is experiencing the latter stages of a hyperactive period that lasts "perhaps 50 to 100 years, then you get a crash," Mr. Weiss says. "It's a boom-bust system, and I would expect a crash soon." When a crash occurs, as it did for 70 years during the 17th century -- known as the "Little Ice Age" -- and for 30 years during the 19th century, the Earth cools dramatically. Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of the St. Petersburg's Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in Russia, says … "The long-term increase in solar irradiance is heating both Earth and Mars,“ … "The solar irradiance began to drop in the 1990s, and a minimum will be reached by approximately 2040," Abdussamatov said. "It will cause a steep cooling of the climate on Earth in 15 to 20 years." http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/02/070228-mars-warming.html Warming on the Martian Surface is causing that planet's ice caps to shrink. Precession ..wobbling Theories that suggest changes in orbital characteristics produce significant shifts in climate have been well established for decades. Drought cycles? Feedback mechanisms? Even less understood are regional variations and responses to climatic drivers. Regional droughts Clouds and albedo changes Aircraft condensation trials (contrails) over the SE United States 24 October 2003. Many GCM’s find it difficult accurately account for changes in planetary albedo from cloud cover. “… NASA scientists have found that cirrus clouds, formed by contrails from aircraft engine exhaust, are capable of increasing average surface temperatures enough to account for a warming trend in the United States that occurred between 1975 and 1994. …” http://www.space.com/imageoftheday/image_of_day_040504.html Contrails spawning cirrus clouds over the upper Midwest 25 November 2006 (MODIS image) http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/images.php3?img_id=17474) The “Great American Desert” Account of an Expedition from Pittsburgh to the Rocky Mountains: performed in the years 1819 and '20 Stephen H. Long Was Long describing the high plains during a time of cyclical drought? The “DUST BOWL”. A cyclical drought on the great plains? Do GCM’s do a good job of predicting this event? What happened to the Anasazi and Freemont peoples? “…Careful scrutiny of tree-ring records seemed to establish that in the late 1200's a prolonged dry spell called the Great Drought drove these people, the ancestors of today's pueblo Indians, to abandon their magnificent stone villages at Mesa Verde and elsewhere on the Colorado Plateau, never to return again….” http://raysweb.net/canyonlands/pages/drought.html Where is the heat? NASA CERES image shows the energy being lost from the Earth and the atmosphere by thermal emission. http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view_rec.php?id=45 Precise monitoring of global temperature trends from satellites SPENCER, ROY W; CHRISTY, JOHN R Science. Vol. 247, pp. 1558-1562. 30 Mar. 1990 Passive microwave radiometry from satellites provides more precise atmospheric temperature information than that obtained from the relatively sparse distribution of thermometers over the earth's surface. Accurate global atmospheric temperature estimates are needed for detection of possible greenhouse warming, evaluation of computer models of climate change, and for understanding important factors in the climate system. Analysis of the first 10 years (1979 to 1988) of satellite measurements of lower atmospheric temperature changes reveals a monthly precision of 0.01 C, large temperature variability on time scales from weeks to several years, but no obvious trend for the 10-year period. The warmest years, in descending order, were 1987, 1988, 1983, and 1980. The years 1984, 1985, and 1986 were the coolest. “Junk Science” Extrapolating facts to absurd lengths ‘Selective’ facts Ad hominem attacks ‘Crisis’ response Mixing ‘moral’ judgments with scientific fact Application of the above to restrict and control human freedom (BUT NOT THE INTELLECTUAL AND POLITICAL ELITE… THEY WILL CONTINUE TO FLY TO GLOBAL CONFERENCES BECAUSE THEY ARE MORE IMPORTANT THAN AN ORDINARY CITIZEN OF THE PLANET) The Climate change consensus states that extreme weather events such as hurricanes will increase in number and intensity due to ‘global warming’ http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/mh05.jpg Hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin: 1851-2004 hurricanes http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E11.html 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 Where is the trend in the data? 0 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2006 Hurricane season....additional ‘proof’ of a warming global climate! 800 AM EDT WED NOV 1 2006 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... ONLY ONE TROPICAL CYCLONE EXISTED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN DURING OCTOBER.... THE LAST TIME NO TROPICAL STORMS FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER WAS 2002... AND THE LAST TIME NO TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMED DURING OCTOBER WAS 1994. IN AN AVERAGE OCTOBER...TWO TROPICAL STORMS DEVELOP OF WHICH ONE BECOMES A HURRICANE. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/tws/MIATWSAT_oct.shtml? A top hurricane forecaster called Al Gore "a gross alarmist" Friday for making an Oscar-winning documentary about global warming. "He's one of these guys that preaches the end of the world type of things. I think he's doing a great disservice and he doesn't know what he's talking about," Dr. William Gray said in an interview with The Associated Press at the National Hurricane Conference in New Orleans, where he delivered the closing speech. http://apnews.myway.com/article/20070407/D8OBK1DG0.html 7 April 2007 Scientific Consensus.... “...the debate is over...” “Agassiz developed a broad theory of what he termed the “Ice Age,” a period in which giant glaciers extended down from the North Pole to cover Europe and much of North America. When he presented the theory on July 24, 1837, in a meeting of the Swiss Society of Natural Sciences in Neuchatel, Switzerland, he was met with sheer rage from a scientific community well-established in its views.” http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/Paleoclimatology/paleocli matology_intro.html Maybe it’s a moot point anyway? GLOBAL WARMING: A Boon to Humans and Other Animals Why Global Warming Would be Good for You Thomas Gale Moore Senior Fellow Hoover Institution Carbon Dioxide Fertilization? "... current levels of atmospheric CO2 are less than optimal for plant growth, ....” Global Warming, Rising CO2 and Invasive Plants. Dr. Lewis Ziska, Plant Physiologist, USDA Crop Systems and Global Change Lab Increasing global agricultural production? Most of the land surface on planet earth is in the northern hemisphere… much of Canada, Alaska and Russia are marginal for agricultural production because of extremely cold climates… a warming climate may open up vast territory for agricultural production. Global winners and losers? Every shift in climate means some areas become more favorable for human habitation, some areas become less favorable. The Gulf Coast May 2005... Photographed on the Gulf Coast July 2005: Is the phrase ‘caveat emptor’ appropriate? The Problem of a “Non-linear response” A ‘tipping point’ Chaos theory The thermo-haline circulation? Evidence in other natural cycles? Evidence in the geologic record? UN chief Kofi Annan demanded that world leaders give climate change the same priority as they did to wars and to curbing the spread of weapons of mass destruction. And he lacerated the fastshrinking minority of politicians or scientists who still denied there was any threat as "out of step, out of arguments and out of time." Former VP AL Gore said there is a consensus on global warming among scientists. "The debate on the science has long been over _ except for a diminishing number of skeptics and deniers," he said. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/03/11/ngreen211.xml Richard Lindzen, the professor of Atmospheric Science at Massachusetts Institute of Technology recently claimed: "Scientists who dissent from the alarmism have seen their funds disappear, their work derided, and themselves labeled as industry stooges. "Consequently, lies about climate change gain credence even when they fly in the face of the science." Dr Myles Allen, from Oxford University, : "The Green movement has hijacked the issue of climate change. It is ludicrous to suggest the only way to deal with the problem is to start micro managing everyone, which is what environmentalists seem to want to do.“ Nigel Calder, a former editor of New Scientist, said: "Governments are trying to achieve unanimity by stifling any scientist who disagrees. Einstein could not have got funding under the present system." Published: March 9, 2007 Czech Pres: Environmentalism is a religion WASHINGTON, (UPI) -- Environmentalism is a religion that is based more on political ambitions than science, the president of the Czech Republic warned Friday. … President Vaclav Klaus said that environmentalists who clamor for policy change to combat global warming "only pretend" to be promoting environmental protection, and are actually being driven by a political agenda. http://www.upi.com/InternationalIntelligence/czech_pres_environmentalism_is_a_religion/20070309-060020-3030r/ Personal evaluation… Stick to facts Do not assume an imagined ‘crisis’ as an excuse to suspend individual liberty or the operations of politics, the market and culture. Scientific ‘consensus’ once held that the earth was flat and the sun revolved around the disk of the earth Study statistical extremes Continue to improve models and measurements Focus on adaptations to change As a witness to today’s worldwide debate on climate change, I suggest the following: ■Small climate changes do not demand far-reaching restrictive measures ■Any suppression of freedom and democracy should be avoided ■Instead of organising people from above, let us allow everyone to live as he wants ■Let us resist the politicisation of science and oppose the term “scientific consensus”, which is always achieved only by a loud minority, never by a silent majority ■Instead of speaking about “the environment”, let us be attentive to it in our personal behaviour ■Let us be humble but confident in the spontaneous evolution of human society. Let us trust its rationality and not try to slow it down or divert it in any direction ■Let us not scare ourselves with catastrophic forecasts, or use them to defend and promote irrational interventions in human lives. President of the Czech Republic Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007 Trying to understand the vitriol.... My wife HATES mice I like mice, they are kinda cute and for the most part, harmless. She cannot understand HOW I do not loathe the little critters and why I live trap them and carry them outside! True believers in human induced climate change CANNOT understand how anyone can doubt the ‘crisis’ in climate! SO the ‘consensus’ of true believers is most important and anyone else must be influenced or bribed by some dark and evil force. Final Note to Evil oil/coal company executives* .... “Available: Physical geographer with substantial research experience in climate change. Unbiased scientific skeptic of human influence over climate change. Have doctorate, will travel.” *if I am going to be subject to intense criticism simply because I am outside the scientific ‘consensus’ that the planet is in a ‘climate crisis’... Sign me up for some of the ill gotten gain as a paid shill for the energy industry! Maybe I can get a new truck?