Transcript Is Longevity Affordable? Presentation at the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies preconference, Chicago July 23, 2007

Is Longevity Affordable?
Presentation at the Institute for Ethics
and Emerging Technologies preconference, Chicago July 23, 2007
Pro-mortalism 1
“Life extension seems to me a perfect
example of something that is a
negative externality, meaning that it is
individually rational and desirable but
it has costs for society that can be
negative."
-- Francis Fukuyama, AAAS, 2003
Pro-mortalism 2
“The worst possible way to resolve
(the question of life extension) is to
leave it up to individual choice. There
is no known social good coming from
the conquest of death.”
-- Daniel Callahan, Hastings Center, 2000
Pro-mortalism 3
“The finitude of human life is a
blessing for every human
individual, whether he knows it or
not.”
--Leon Kass, First Things, “L’Chaim and Its
Limits: Why Not Immortality,” 2002
“The Coming Death Shortage,”
The Atlantic Monthly, May 2005
"Pushing the outer limits of
lifespan will force the world to
confront a situation no society has
ever faced before: an acute
shortage of dead people.”
-- Charles Mann
Benefits v. Costs of Longevity
-- Benefits of increased lifespan easily
outweigh costs
--Longevity treatments are likely to be
affordable
--Longevity will help solve social and
economic problems
Life expectancy at birth and age 50,
United States, 1900-2000
Cumulative value of longevity gains
since 1900: Men and Women
Aggregate Economic Gains From
Reductions in Mortality,1970-2000
Estimated Gains Net of the Increase in
Health Expenditures 1970-2000
Is medical spending to increase
longevity worth it?
“Between 1970 and 2000 increased
longevity yielded a ‘gross’ social
value of $95 trillion, while th
capitalized value of medical
expenditures grew by $34 billion,
leaving a net gain of $61 trillion.”
Are we spending enough on
mortality reduction research?
Value of a 10% reduction in all cause mortality is
worth $18 trillion dollars.
Federal health research was $28 billion in 2005.
Capitalizing this expenditure at 3%, it is roughly
equal to $1 trillion value of a 1% reduction in
mortality from cancer and heart disease.
What is the value of increasing
healthspan?
“In Pursuit of the Longevity Dividend”
by Olshansky, Perry, Miller, & Butler
“We envision a goal that is
realistically achievable: a modest
deceleration in the rate of aging
sufficient to delay all aging-related
diseases and disorders by about
seven years.”
Can we afford future anti-aging
treatments?
“In higher income countries, there
appears to be little room for
optimism that the social benefits
of an anti-ageing breakthrough
will exceed the societal costs.”
--Charles McConnell & Leigh Turner, EMBO
Reports, 2005
Can we afford future anti-aging
treatments?
2005 Death Shortage -- $15,000 x 80 million
oldsters = $1.2 trillion
2075 EPF– total U.S. GDP $128 trillion
$1.2 trillion is 1% of GDP
2075 -- $15,000 x 480 million Americans =
7.2 trillion. Still less than 7% of GDP
Consumption Trends in U.S. 1875 compared
to 1995, -- Robert Fogel, 1998
Share of Population of Working Age--East Asia
and Sub-Saharan Africa, 1950-2050
Longevity Soon?
“I would be disappointed if we
were all born one generation too
early.”
-- David Sinclair, co-founder,
Sirtris Pharmaceuticals, July 2005