Transcript Remittances Data Quality: A review in progress Evis Rucaj, consultant, World Bank.

Remittances Data Quality:
A review in progress
Evis Rucaj, consultant, World Bank
Content
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Remittances flows – Background
Remittances within the BoP framework
Data Discrepancies
Key problems
Remittances flows
Remittances flows by regions, 2001-2007 (US$ billion)
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Inflows
Developing countries
East Asia and Pacific
Europe and Central Asia
Latin America and Caribbean
Middle-East and North Africa
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Low-income countries
Middle-income countries
Lower MICs
Upper MICs
High income OECD
High income non-OECD
World
Source: World Bank, 20009
95.2
20.1
12.4
24.2
14.7
19.2
4.7
115.5
29.5
13.7
27.9
15.2
24.1
5.0
144.3
35.4
15.5
36.6
20.4
30.4
6.0
164.4
39.2
22.2
43.3
23.0
28.7
8.0
194.8
46.7
31.2
50.1
24.3
33.1
9.4
228.7
52.9
38.3
59.2
25.7
39.6
12.9
280.7
65.2
50.4
63.1
31.3
52.1
18.6
10.9
84.3
57.8
26.5
15.3
100.2
70.6
29.7
16.7
127.6
88.1
39.5
19.6
144.8
94.6
50.2
23.9
170.9
109.8
61.1
30.9
197.8
125.9
71.9
39.9
240.7
160.9
79.9
50.3
1.2
52.9
1.1
60.7
2.3
67.1
3.4
69.2
3.9
73.8
4.1
85.7
4.4
146.8
169.5
207.3
234.9
267.8
306.6
370.8
Remittance flows (1)
Remittance flows to Major Remittances Receiving Countries 2007
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Country
India
China
Mexico
Philippines
France
Spain
Poland
Nigeria
Germany
Region
In US $ billion Regional Share Worldwide share
South Asia
35.3
68%
9.5%
East Asia & Pacific
32.8
50%
8.9%
Latin America & Caribbean
27.1
43%
7.3%
East Asia & Pacific
16.3
25%
4.4%
High income: OECD
13.7
16%
3.7%
High income: OECD
10.7
12%
2.9%
Europe & Central Asia
10.5
21%
2.8%
Sub-Saharan Africa
9.2
50%
2.5%
High income: OECD
8.6
10%
2.3%
Remittance flows (2)
• Top remittances-receiver as % of GDP
Percent of GDP
Guatemala
Cape Verde
Nicaragua
Gambia, The
Philippines
Serbia and Montenegro
West Bank and Gaza
Albania
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Nepal
El Salvador
Armenia
Jamaica
Jordan
Haiti
Lebanon
Guyana
Lesotho
Honduras
Kyrgyz Republic
Tonga
Tajikistan
Moldova
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Remittances (3)
Top remittances-sender countries
50.0
United States
45.0
40.0
35.0
Russian Federation
30.0
25.0
Switzerland
20.0
15.0
Saudi Arabia
10.0
5.0
0.0
Germany
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Impact of Crisis on Remittances
Outlook for remittance flows to developing countries, 2009-11
2008e
$ billion
Developing countries
(as share of GDP, %)*
East Asia and Pacific
Europe and Central Asia
Latin America and Caribbean
Middle-East and North Africa
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
305
(1.9)
Base case forecast
2009f
2010f 2011f
290
(1.8)
299
(1.7)
317
(1.6)
Low case forecast
2009f
280
(1.8)
2010f
280
(1.6)
2011f
289
(1.4)
70
53
63
34
66
20
67
48
60
33
63
19
68
50
62
34
65
20
72
53
65
36
70
21
64
46
58
32
61
18
64
47
58
32
62
18
65
50
59
32
64
19
45
260
43
247
45
254
48
269
41
239
42
238
44
245
8.8%
-5.0%
2.9%
6.3%
-8.2%
-0.2%
3.2%
East Asia and Pacific
Europe and Central Asia
Latin America and Caribbean
Middle-East and North Africa
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
6.6%
5.4%
0.2%
7.6%
26.7%
6.3%
-4.2%
-10.1%
-4.4%
-1.4%
-4.2%
-4.4%
1.9%
4.2%
2.3%
2.9%
3.4%
3.5%
5.6%
7.5%
5.6%
5.6%
6.8%
6.7%
-7.5%
-12.7%
-7.7%
-5.2%
-7.3%
-7.9%
-1.3%
1.6%
-1.0%
-0.9%
0.5%
0.0%
2.1%
5.1%
2.5%
2.1%
4.2%
3.5%
Low-income countries
Middle-income countries
13.0%
8.1%
-5.4%
-4.9%
4.4%
2.7%
7.5%
6.0%
-8.2%
-8.1%
1.6%
-0.5%
4.9%
2.9%
Low-income countries
Middle-income countries
Growth rate (%)
Developing countries
e = estimate; f=forecast
Source: Migration and Development Brief 8 for the methodology for the estimates for 2008 and forecasts for 2009 and 2010
Remittances within the
BoP framework
Remittance flows are usually measured through BoP statistics
Old definition:
– Remittances are usually the sum of a few BoP items
• workers remittance
• compensation of employees
• migrant transfers,
– The migration status of a remitter is critical to measurement of
remittance flows
New definition:
• Replace workers’ remittances with personal transfers
• personal remittance
• total remittance
• total remittance and transfers to NPISHs
– Remove “migrants transfers” and the concept of migrant from the
BOP framework
– Replace migration status with residence status
Data Discrepancies
• Global Discrepancies (inflows-outflows)
• Bilateral Data Asymmetries
• Discrepancies between IMF and WB remittances
data
Global Discrepancies
Discrepanies between global inflows and outflows
(US$ Billion)
400.0
350.0
300.0
250.0
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
2001
2002
Inflows
2003
2004
Outflow
2005
2006
2007
Gap
Source: World Bank staff estimates and the International Monetary Fund's Balance of Payments Statistics Yearbook 2008.
Key problems
• Sender vs. Receiver countries
• Metadata issues
– Concepts and definition inconsistency
– Compilation procedures
• Threshold
• Data sources
• Estimation of informality
Bilateral Asymmetries
• A few or no bilateral data
• No comparison framework
– Different channels
– Representation of the migration
IMF vs. WB remittances data
Discrepancies on IMF reporting data and WB estimation 2006-2007
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
2006
2007
Inflows
IMF
2006
2007
Outflows
WB
Key issues
• Different methodologies
– IMF: no filling in the missing of the data
– 11% of the countries do not report remittances
to the IMF
– Many countries report data to the IMF with a
time lag of at least two years
– IMF yearbook lags one year