Selected Topics in Propagation Carl Luetzelschwab K9LA [email protected]

PVRC Webinar Mar 9, 2011 K9LA

What We’ll Cover in This Session

• • • •

An Update on Cycle 24

– Will it be an underachiever?

The M-Factor

– Some theory about one of the basic parameters of the ionosphere

Sunspots and Solar Flux During Cycle 23

– An interesting anomaly – not sure what it says yet

Ionosphere-Ionosphere Modes

– There’s more than multi-hop out there PVRC Webinar Mar 9, 2011 K9LA

An Update on Cycle 24

PVRC Webinar Mar 9, 2011 K9LA

Latest Data

Solar Min Between Cycle 23 and 24 and Cycle 24 Ascent in terms of 10.7 cm solar flux

100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 minimum monthly mean smoothed J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Smoothed 10.7 cm solar flux is still rising PVRC Webinar Mar 9, 2011 K9LA

Latest Data

Solar Min Between Cycle 23 and 24, and Cycle 24 Ascent in terms of sunspot number

50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Cycle 24 monthly mean Cycle 23 monthly mean smoothed minimum J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 PVRC Webinar Mar 9, 2011 K9LA

Review of the Predictions

140 90 90 These are from the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel (NOAA, NASA, ISES, and other personnel) PVRC Webinar Mar 9, 2011 K9LA

The Latest Prediction

There may be an updated prediction (lower) from the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel PVRC Webinar Mar 9, 2011 K9LA

Marshall Space Flight Center

59 Similar prediction to Kane, “ Size of the coming solar cycle 24 based on Ohl’s Precursor Method, final estimate” , Annales Geophysicae, July 2010 A lot of evidence pointing to small Cycle 24 PVRC Webinar Mar 9, 2011 K9LA

But . . . . . . .

• • • • Not everyone agrees that Cycle 24 will be so small Recent prediction in Solar Physics – Maximum of 131 +/- 20 – Maximum in July 2012 +/- 4 months – From R. S. Dabas and Kavita Sharma, Prediction of Cycle 24 Using Geomagnetic Precursors: Validation and Update , Solar Physics, Vol 266 No 2, pp 391-403, July 2010 This would be good for the higher bands – and for 6m F 2 If Cycle 24 is a small one, though, 6m F 2 propagation will take the biggest hit – Thank goodness for summer E region propagation PVRC Webinar Mar 9, 2011 K9LA

• • •

Predictions in General

Over 60 predictions for Cycle 24 – Maximum smoothed sunspot number from 40 to 185 Common forecasting methods – Statistical methods: length of Cycle n correlated to maximum of Cycle n+1, maximum R 12 correlated to minimum R 12 • Generally gives low Cycle 24 – Geomagnetic precursor methods: Ap, aa, and number of magnetically disturbed days correlate to next maximum • Unfortunately can give widely varied answers depending on assumptions – Polar field precursor method: strength of Sun’s polar field correlates to next cycle • Gives small Cycle 24 – Solar dynamo method: the conveyor belt theory • Unfortunately can give widely varied answers depending on assumptions Summary of forecasting methods from K. J. Li, et al, on the presentation of cycle 24, the first integrated solar cycle in the new millennium A brief review , Annales Geophysicae, 29, 341-348, 2011 PVRC Webinar Mar 9, 2011 K9LA

Recent NASA News

• • “Researchers Crack the Mystery of the Missing Sunspots”

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2011/02mar_spotlesssun/

– Solar scientists claim they’ve developed a new computer model of the sun's interior that gets the physics right for all three aspects of the sunspot generation process - the magnetic dynamo, the conveyor belt, and the buoyant evolution of sunspot magnetic fields Maybe this will help narrow down the range of the forecasted maximum smoothed sunspot number

Keep an eye on NASA Headline News, http://www.solarcycle24.com, http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, and http://spaceweather.com

PVRC Webinar Mar 9, 2011 K9LA

ARRL DX CW and PH

ARRL DX PH ARRL DX CW

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Feb Mar It’s headed in the right direction!

PVRC Webinar Mar 9, 2011 K9LA

ARRL DX CW and PH

red line is one-day running average ARRL DX CW ARRL DX PH 28 MHz 21 MHz

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Feb Mar Recent solar activity helped ARRL DX PH the most PVRC Webinar Mar 9, 2011 K9LA

The M-Factor

PVRC Webinar Mar 9, 2011 K9LA No, not this M

• •

What Is The M-Factor?

The M-Factor (MUF factor) relates the MUF (maximum useable frequency) to the critical frequency – MUF = M-Factor x Critical Frequency – M-Factor and critical frequency (along with other parameters) are measured by ionosondes M-Factor is one over the sine of the angle between the ray and the ionosphere (also known as the secant law as 1/sine = secant) ionosphere sine of this angle If the angle = 90 o (vertically incident), then the M Factor equals 1 and the MUF = the critical frequency PVRC Webinar Mar 9, 2011 K9LA

Apply It To The Ionosphere

ionosphere Ω = 1 o  = 1 o Earth Thus the M-Factor = 1 sine (1 o ) = 57 • • Wow – if the critical frequency is 5 MHz, then the MUF would be 285 MHz But hold on – the Earth-ionosphere system isn’t flat – it’s spherical PVRC Webinar Mar 9, 2011 K9LA

The Real Earth-Ionosphere System

Ω = 17.5

o  = 1 o ionosphere

height now matters – let’s assume 300 km

Earth Now the M-Factor = 1 sine (17.5

o ) = 3.3

MUF for this F 2 region scenario is about 3 times the critical frequency PVRC Webinar Mar 9, 2011 K9LA

M-Factor vs Height and Angle

height 100 km 200 km 300km 400 km



0 deg 5 deg 10 deg 25 deg 0 deg 5 deg 10 deg 25 deg 0 deg 5 deg 10 deg 25 deg 0 deg 5 deg 10 deg 25 deg distance Ω 2243 km 1389 km 927 km 408 km 10.1 deg 11.3 deg 14.2 deg 26.8 deg 3152 km 14.2 deg 2226 km 1620 km 15.0 deg 17.3 deg 781 km 28.5 deg 3836 km 2877 km 2193 km 1124 km 4401 km 3422 km 2687 km 1412 km 17.3 deg 17.9 deg 19.9 deg 30.1 deg 19.8 deg 20.4 deg 22.1 deg 31.4 deg M-Factor 5.7

5.1

4.1

2.2

4.1

3.9

3.4

2.1

3.4

3.3

2.9

2.0

3.0

2.9

2.7

1.9

This calculation assumes specular (mirror-like) reflection over an infinitely short distance – the real-world is refraction over a spherical distance The higher the layer, the longer the hop distance for a given angle But the higher the layer, the lower the M-Factor (lower MUF) for a given angle PVRC Webinar Mar 9, 2011 K9LA

Rule of 3 and Rule of 5

• •

For the F

2

region with low angles, the MUF is approximately 3 times the critical frequency

– Ionosondes report the M-Factor for a 3000 km hop • M(3000)F2 or M(D) where D = 3000 km

For the E region with low angles, the MUF is approximately 5 times the critical frequency

– Close enough for sporadic E, too Allows you to estimate the MUF only knowing the critical frequency PVRC Webinar Mar 9, 2011 K9LA

Sunspots and Solar Flux During Cycle 23

PVRC Webinar Mar 9, 2011 K9LA

Why Use Smoothed Solar Indices?

• Reason #1: Daily data (and even monthly mean data) is spiky hard to tell what’s happening • Reason #2: The best correlation between what the Sun is doing and what the ionosphere is doing is through a smoothed solar index this is the basis on which the statistical model of the ionosphere for our propagation predictions was developed PVRC Webinar Mar 9, 2011 K9LA

Early Correlation

Equation from texts on the ionosphere: SF 12 = 63.75 + .728 SSN 12 (the “12” subscript denotes smoothed values) + .00089 SSN 12 2

August 1947 through June 1970 (peak of Cycle 18 through maximum of Cycle 20)

y = 0.0009x

2 + 0.7278x + 64.11

R² = 0.9958

300.0

250.0

200.0

150.0

100.0

50.0

0.0

0 50 100 150

smoothed sunspot number

200 250 Side note - there is very little correlation between daily 10.7 cm solar flux and daily sunspot number PVRC Webinar Mar 9, 2011 K9LA

More Data

300.0

250.0

200.0

150.0

100.0

50.0

0.0

0

August 1947 through December 1996 (peak of Cycle 18 through end of Cycle 22)

R² = 0.9908

50 100 150

smoothed sunspot number

200 250 Some more scatter about the trend line, but still pretty good.

PVRC Webinar Mar 9, 2011 K9LA

Include Cycle 23

300.0

250.0

200.0

150.0

100.0

50.0

0.0

0

August 1947 through July 2010 (peak of Cycle 18 through end of Cycle 23)

R² = 0.9809

Cycle 23 data

50 100 150

smoothed sunspot number

200 250 250 200 150 100 50 0

Cycle 23

smoothed 10.7 cm solar flux smoothed sunspot number

April 2000 Nov 2001

• • • In terms of smoothed sunspot number, second peak is a bit lower In terms of smoothed solar flux, second peak is definitely higher We had much better 6m F2 propagation during the second peak PVRC Webinar Mar 9, 2011 K9LA

• • • •

Why The Anomaly?

Dr. Leif Svalgaard (member of the Cycle 24 Prediction Panel) has several opinions – The sunspot counting procedure or observers have changed with resulting artificial changes of the sunspot number (as they have in the past) – There are changes in the Sun’s corona or chromosphere accounting for additional 10.7 cm emission – Penn and Livingston’s observations (Penn, M. J. and W. Livingston, Temporal Changes in Sunspot Umbral Magnetic Fields and Temperatures , The Astrophysical Journal, 649, L45-L48, 2006 September 20) suggest that sunspots have been getting warmer during the last decade, leading to a decreased contrast with the surrounding photosphere and hence lessened visibility, possibly resulting in an undercount of sunspots No definite answer (yet!) Visit http://www.leif.org/research and select item 1020 for details Check out my Propagation columns in the forthcoming May 2011 and June 2011 issues of WorldRadio Online for more on this – http://www.worldradiomagazine.com/ WRO is free !

PVRC Webinar Mar 9, 2011 K9LA

Ionosphere-Ionosphere Modes

PVRC Webinar Mar 9, 2011 K9LA

Multi-Hop Can Have Limits

ionosphere Earth • • On the lower bands there may be too much absorption for multi-hop – the signal is too weak On the higher bands the MUF may not be high enough to refract the ray back to Earth for multi-hop – the ray goes out into space PVRC Webinar Mar 9, 2011 K9LA

Higher MUF & Less Absorption

• •

Are there modes that could give a higher MUF and/or lesser absorption?

Yes - there appear to be three of them – Chordal hop – Duct – Pedersen Ray

chordal hop duct unaffected by the ionosphere in between refraction points consecutive refractions between E and F regions Pedersen Ray high angle ray, close to MUF, parallels the Earth

PVRC Webinar Mar 9, 2011 K9LA

Chordal Hop

•

Example – TEP (trans-equatorial propagation)

K6QXY to ZL on 6m Ray trace from Proplab Pro monthly median results area of higher electron density refraction area of higher electron density refraction

• • • • • High density of electrons on either side of geomagnetic equator Extremely long hop – approximately twice a normal hop Only two transits through the absorbing region No ground reflections Literature says MUF is approximately 1.5 times normal F2 hop PVRC Webinar Mar 9, 2011 K9LA helps MUF and absorption

• • • • • •

Duct

Requires upper and lower boundary for successive refractions Need entry and exit criteria - small range of angles No transits through the absorbing region No ground reflections Low grazing angles with ionosphere – higher MUF Believed to allow extremely long distance QSOs on 160m helps MUF and absorption PVRC Webinar Mar 9, 2011 K9LA

Pedersen Ray

• • • • 1 and 2 are “low-angle” paths 3 is “medium-angle” path 4 and 5 are “high-angle” Pedersen Ray paths 6 goes thru the ionosphere • • • • Not a lot in the literature on the Pedersen Ray Comment from Radio Ionospheric (Davies, 1990) – Across the North Atlantic, occurrence tends to peak near noon at the midpoint One would surmise that the ionosphere needs to be very stable for a ray to exactly parallel the Earth for long distances Probably no help with MUF – biggest advantage appears to be with lower absorption due to less transits of the absorbing region and no ground reflection losses helps absorption PVRC Webinar Mar 9, 2011 K9LA

A Detailed 20m Analysis

• K2MO (AA2AE at the time) to ZS5BBO on July 5, 2003 at 1230 UTC on 20m SSB via long path • K2MO reported that ZS5BBO’s signal was around S7 (~ -83 dBm) • Long path from W2 starts off in daylight, goes into darkness, and ends in daylight • Short path has high MUF but marginal signal strength due to absorption • Long path signal strength from ZS predicted to be -125 dBm – About 40 dB shy of S7 Short path 12,700 km Long path 27,300 km PVRC Webinar Mar 9, 2011 K9LA

The Ionosphere Along the LP

VK5

• Note the tilts in the ionosphere at dawn (W2 end) and at dusk (ZS end) • Tilt can refract the ray so that it encounters the ionosphere at more of a grazing angle (i.e., a higher MUF) • Good entry/exit criteria for duct PVRC Webinar Mar 9, 2011 K9LA

Ray Trace from W2 End

• Proplab Pro can only ray trace out to 20,000 km (half way around) • Do two ray traces – One from W2 end (pictured) – One from ZS end (not pictured) • Ray trace from ZS end shows similar ducting • Signal strength now estimated to be -89 dBm – Close to observed -83 dBm PVRC Webinar Mar 9, 2011 K9LA

The Big Picture

• • • • My crude picture on the left shows chordal hops as the ionosphere-ionosphere mode Proplab Pro data indicates the K2MO-to-ZS5BBO QSO was ducting Easier to draw chordal hops!

You’ve probably seen a similar picture in the propagation literature. Ionosphere-ionosphere modes are our friends PVRC Webinar Mar 9, 2011 K9LA

Summary

• • • • • • I hope you learned something This webinar will be on the PVRC web site – http://www.pvrc.org/webinar/webinars.htm

– The slides will also be at http://mysite.ncnetwork.net/k9la Follow-up webinars: More Selected Topics in Propagation – Such as noise, 10m long path, effect of the Moon on HF propagation, trans-equatorial propagation E-mail me if you have a specific topic – [email protected]

– Also visit http://mysite.ncnetwork.net/k9la Thanks to Ken K4ZW and to the PVRC And now . . . . . . . . . . . Q/A PVRC Webinar Mar 9, 2011 K9LA