Transcript A National Grid Fit For The Future Chris J Murray. Newton Institute - 26th May 2010

A National Grid Fit For The Future
Chris J Murray. Newton Institute - 26th May 2010
National Grid
UK and US
National
system
operator
Electricity and Gas
Transmission and
Distribution
England and
Wales
transmission
owner
The energy world is changing – utilities playing a
critical role in a sustainable future
Traditional energy market
Today’s evolving market
Large centralised
generation
Nuclear
power
station
Hydro- Coal/gas fired
Gas production
electric power station
$$$
power
Small range of
conventional
technologies
Energy volume
drives energy
company
revenue
Static
infrastructure
Energy
flows to
users
Energy
flows to
users
Industrial
and
commercial
Price and reliability are main determinants of customer choice
 Distributed generation
 Energy efficiency
 Infrastructure
enhancement
 Smart grid
 Demand management
 Wind sources
 Solar sources
 Clean technology
 Energy storage
Our role is
being
redefined
Climate change is driving an energy revolution
Sustainability
Affordability
Security of
supply
Impact of UK generation closures on plant margin*
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
(5)%
(10)%
(15)%
(20)%
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
Demand
2010/11
2011/12
Nuclear
2012/13
2013/14
Coal & Oil
* Margin refers to the difference between the total generation capacity and total demand.
2014/15
2015/16
Gas
2016/17
2017/18
Margin
2020/21
Best view of new UK generation
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
(5)%
(10)%
(15)%
(20)%
2007/08
2008/09
CCGT
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
Renewable
2012/13
2013/14
Clean Coal
* Margin refers to the difference between the total generation capacity and total demand.
2014/15
2015/16
Nuclear
2016/17
2017/18
2020/21
Existing margin
The changing generation mix
Transmission connected generation (GW)
2030
2020
2010
0
Gas
20
Coal
40
CCS
Wind
60
Other Renewable
80
100
Nuclear
120
Interconnectors
Existing / potential interconnectors
Norway
Existing
Under construction
Northern
Ireland
Possible future
Ireland
Netherlands
Belgium
France
France
Offshore wind
 390MW currently connected
 8,806MW contracted for
future connection
 Developer information
provided indicates 14.3GW
of Offshore Renewables by
end of 2020
More to do!
UK Strategic investment (electricity)
TRANSMISSION SYSTEM REINFORCEMENTS
Focus on Scotland
Dounreay
Thurso
REINFORCED NETWORK
Mybster
Driven by onshore renewables
Cassley
Stornoway
Dunbeath
Lairg
400kV Substations
275kV Substations
400kV CIRCUITS
275kV CIRCUITS
THE SHETLAND ISLANDS
Brora
Shin
Mossford
Grudie
Bridge
Major Generating Sites Including Pumped Storage
Alness
Conon
Fraserburgh
Elgin
Orrin
Luichart
Ardmore
Macduff
Deanie
Dingwall
Culligran
Aigas
Dunvegan
Keith
Connected at 400kV
Connected at 275kV
Hydro Generation
St. Fergus
Strichen
Nairn
Inverness
Kilmorack
Blackhillock
Peterhead
Beauly
Fasnakyle
Dyce
Kintore
Glen
Morrison
Broadford
Persley
Woodhill
Foyers
Fort Augustus
Ceannacroc
Willowdale
Boat of
Garten
Redmoss
Invergarry
Quoich
Under Construction or ready to start
Construction subject to consents
Clayhills
Craigiebuckler
Tarland
Focus on East Coast
Fiddes
Reinforcements in Development.
Pre - Construction Activities only
Fort William
Errochty Power Station
Errochty
Rannoch
Clunie
Bridge of Dun
Tummel
Bridge
Lunanhead
Tealing
Cashlie
Arbroath
Dudhope
Milton of Craigie
Lochay
Lyndhurst
Taynuilt
Cruachan
Nant
Killin
Dalmally
Charleston
Burghmuir
Finlarig
St. Fillans
SCOTTISH HYDRO-ELECTRIC
TRANSMISSION
Clachan
Inveraray
Glenagnes
Series Capacitors
Dudhope
Driven by offshore renewables /
nuclear
Cupar
Glenrothes
Sloy
Leven
Westfield
Devonside
Redhouse
Whistlefield
Stirling
Port
Ann
Kincardine
Dunfermline
Longannet
Iverkeithing
Grangemouth
Bonnybridge
Dunoon
Devol
Moor
Spango
Valley
Helensburgh
Strathleven
Erskine
Inverkip
Lambhill
Cockenzie
Shrubhill
Portobello
Telford Rd.
Broxburn Gorgie
Bathgate
Cumbernauld
Dunbar
Torness
Whitehouse
Easterhouse
Livingston
Kaimes
Currie
Newarthill
Clydes
Mill
Neilston
Hunterston
Farm
Berwick
Hunterston
Wishaw
Busby
Whitelee
Kilmarnock
Town
Kilwinning
Saltcoats
Carradale
Glenniston
Mossmorran
Strathaven
East
Kilbride
South
Blacklaw
Linmill
Eccles
Galashiels
Meadowhead
Kilmarnock
South
Ayr
Coalburn
HVDC Link increases capacity by up to
1.8GW
2018
SP TRANSMISSION LTD.
Coylton
Elvanfoot
Hawick
Maybole
NGC
Blyth
Gretna
Dumfries
Auchencrosh
Ecclefechan
Fourstones
Newton
Stewart
Harker
Chapelcross
Tynemouth
South Shields
West Boldon
Stella
West
Tongland
Glenluce
Offerton
Hawthorne Pit
Hart Moor
Spennymoor
Hartlepool
Tod Point
Grangetown
Greystones
Saltholme
Norton
Lackenby
HVDC Link increases capacity by up to
1.8GW
2015
Hutton
Heysham
Reconductor +
Series Capacitors
increase B6
by 1GW
2015
Quernmore
HVDC Link from Humber to Walpole
provides 3GW offshore wind/CCGT 2018
Poppleton Osbaldwick
Bradford
West
Kirkstall
Stanah
Padiham
Advance asset replacement at Deeside
400kV substation.
Thornton
Skelton
Grange
Creyke Beck
Saltend North
Monk
Fryston
Focus on South & West
Saltend South
Penwortham
Elland
Ferrybridge
Rochdale
Drax
Eggborough
Killingholme
Humber Refinery
Keadby
Washway
Templeborough
Thorpe
Whitegate
Kearsley
Farm
West
Marsh
Kirkby
South
Melton
Stalybridge
Lister
Manchester
Stocksbridge Pitsmoor
Rainhill
Drive
Aldwarke
Bredbury Winco Bank
Carrington
Thurcroft
Neepsend
Daines
Fiddlers
Sheffield City
Ferry
Brinsworth
Jordanthorpe
Frodsham
Norton Lees
Macclesfield
Chesterfield
Deeside
High
Marnham
Wylfa
Pentir
Dinorwig
Grimsby
West
Complete Bramford Substation and
new 400kV line to Braintree 2016
Capacity for 5GW wind/nuclear
CCGT.
Cottam
Capenhurst
Additional 400kV double circuit to Pentir
+3GW new generation capacity
offshore/Wylfa
South
Humber
Bank
West
Burton
Birkenhead
Driven by nuclear/wind
Staythorpe
Legacy
Ffestiniog
Cellarhead
Bicker
Fenn
Willington
Trawsfynydd
Ratcliffe
Ironbridge
Shrewsbury
New Circuit for 710MW contracted
onshore wind
2015
Walpole
Drakelow
Rugeley
Spalding
North
Norwich
Main
Bushbury
Willenhall Bustleholm
Penn
Coventry
Oldbury
Kitwell
Bishops
Wood
Enderby
Hams
Hall
Nechells
Ocker
Hill
Berkswell
Feckenham
Sizewell
Burwell
Main
Grendon Eaton
Socon
Bramford
Patford
Bridge
East
Claydon
Rassau
Upper Boat
Alpha Steel
Cilfynydd
Uskmouth
Aberthaw
Braintree
Rye House
Brimsdown
Whitson
Cowley
Amersham Main
Culham
Didcot
Iver
N.Hyde
Minety
Iron Acton
Seabank
Cowbridge
New 400kV CCT between Hinkley & Seabank
provides capacity for offshore wind
CCGT/Nuclear
Pelham
Wymondley
Leighton
Buzzard
Walham
Imperial
Park
Swansea
North
Baglan
Bay
Margam
Pyle
Pembroke
Sundon
Laleham
Tremorfa
Cardiff
East
Melksham
Waltham
Cross
Hackney
Elstree
Rayleigh Main
Tottenham Redbridge Warley
Mill Hill
Willesden
Coryton
Barking West Thurrock
Northfleet East
Ealing
Singlewell
Grain
Tilbury
City Rd W.Ham
St Johns
New Hurst
Wood
Kingsnorth
Cross
Watford
West
Weybridge Chessington
Bramley
Fleet
Rowdown Littlebrook
Beddington
Wimbledon
Kemsley
Canterbury
North
Hinkley Point
Sellindge
Bridgwater
Alverdiscott
Bolney
Nursling
Taunton
E de F
Ninfield
Dungeness
Marchwood
Axminster
Mannington
Exeter
Chickerell
Langage
ISSUE A 02-12-08 41/177609
C Collins Bartholomew Ltd 1999
Indian
Queens
Landulph
Abham
Fawley
Lovedean
Botley Wood
£4.7bn onshore investment identified
Where’s the UK’s gas coming from?
120
Actual
Forecast
100
bcm / year
80
60
40
20
0
00/01
02/03
UKCS
04/05 06/07
Norway
08/09
LNG
10/11
12/13
14/15 16/17
Continent
18/19
20/21
Demand inc exports
UK gas transmission load related investment
West of Shetland
existing network
future potential investment
New Norway
recent construction
St Fergus
Terminal
LNG importation
Teesside
Barrow
Langeled
Easington
Theddlethorpe
Bacton
New southern basin
developments
New continental link
Milford Haven
Grain LNG
Potential gas world…….
In 2020 - 80% of gas is imported and over 50% of electricity relies on gas
1200
Capacity far exceeds demand
1000
Will new storage be built?
mcm/d
800
600
Continent
400
LNG
Norwegian
200
UKCS
0
demand
capacity
• How confident are we that the molecules will turn up?
• What investment is required for security of supply
What does this mean for gas transmission?
Carbon Cap Storage
Gas transportation
West of Shetland
New Norway
St Fergus
Future investment
Recent investment
Terminal construction
Scotland
LNG importation
Langeled
New southern
basin
Easington
developments
Teesside
Barrow
Milford Haven
Grain LNG
Network flexibility becomes
increasingly important
Its not just electricity investment…
18Mt
Teesside
11Mt
Humber
60Mt
Liverpool
Bay*
10Mt
Thames
28Mt
Humber
Liverpool
Bay
CO2
volume
Scotland
Teesside
Theddlethorpe
New continental
Bacton
link
Cluster
Region
Balancing the UK networks
Electricity
2010
 Demand is a given
 Second by second balancing achieved by
flexing generation
Future
 Dynamic demand
 Smart meters
 Storage
 Flexing generation
Gas
2010
 Major flows from UKCS & Norway
Future
 Less UKCS
 Variable flows from Norway, European
interconnectors & LNG
But… we have a skills gap to manage…
Our Challenges and Opportunities
Decline of UKCS
Ageing Assets
Changing
economic
climate
Transition to
a low
carbon
economy
Developing
future
networks
Security of
supply
2020 EU Targets
Thinking about 2050
Affordability
Planning +
Strategic
Investment
Thank you