Transcript Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Electric Demand Predictions Mike Aucott, Ph.D. NJDEP Office of Science New Jersey Clean Air Council 2009 Annual Public Hearing Trenton, NJ April 1,

Greenhouse Gas Inventory and
Electric Demand Predictions
Mike Aucott, Ph.D.
NJDEP Office of Science
New Jersey Clean Air Council 2009
Annual Public Hearing
Trenton, NJ
April 1, 2009
GHG Emissions Estimates
• Developed by NJDEP based primarily on energy
use data from USDOE/EIA
• NJDEP and EPA data also used
• Methods continue to be refined
• New NJ-specific data will become available soon
and will improve the process
Energy to Greenhouse Gas Conversions, NJ, 2004;
based on carbon content of fuel, GWP of other gases,
portion of emissions emitted in NJ, and 150
other factors
3000
150
150
150
130
2500
110
2000
110
90
90
1500
70
70
1000
50
50
30
30
500
10
10
110
90
70
50
30
10
non-combustion CO
forest sequestration
forest sequestration
halogenated halogenated
gases
gases
non-combustion
110 CO2
non-combustion CO2
halogenated gases methane from
landfill
methane
wastes
halogenated gases
methane from wastes
jet fuel
jet
landfill
methane
jetfuel
fuel
jet fuel 90
wood and waste
jet fuel and waste
wood and waste wood
wood
nuclear power
wood
and waste
nuclear power
nuclearpower
power
70 nuclear
residual fuel
nuclear
power
residual fuel
residualfuel
fuel natural gas
residual
natural gas
residual fuel
natural gas
natural
gas other petro prods
other petro
prods
50 other petro
prods
natural gas
gasoline
gasoline
other
petro
prods
gasoline
imported electricity other petro prods
imported electricity
imported
electricity
gasoline
30 oil
diesel & heating
diesel & heating oi
gasoline
diesel
& heating oil
imported
electricity
coal
coal
coal
imported
electricity
diesel
& heating
oil
10
diesel & heating oil
coal
0
-10
-10
forest sequestratio
natural gas leaks & other
Million metric tons CO2 equivalent
130
Million metric tons CO2 equivalent
Trillion
Btu
Million metric tons
CO2 equivalent
Million metric tons CO2 equivalent
130
130
forest sequestration
Energy
-10
GHG
-10
coal
Energy
Energy
GHG Emissions Predictions
• Developed with linear projections of trends from
1990 through 2004
• Major uncertainties exist
NJ Greenhouse Gas Emissions:
Estimated 1990, Projected 2020 Business as Usual (BAU),
2020 Limit, & Proposed Reductions
160
BAU
Millions of metric tons
150
140
130
120
Reductions that can be
achieved by EMP,
LEV, and RGGI
1990
2020
Statewide
Limit
EMP = Energy Master Plan
LEV = Low Emission Vehicle Program
RGGI = Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative
110
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2005 and 2006 Estimates Now
Available
• Reflect minor modifications of methods for some
sectors
• Are preliminary
• Show large reduction from 2005 to 2006; this is
true at the national level as well
Estimated NJ GHG Emissions; Preliminary
2005
2006
commercial
industrial
residential
transportation*
in-state electric
imported electric
MSW incineration
halogenated gases (ex. SF6)
SF6
Industrial non-fuel related
Agriculture
Natural gas T&D
Landfills, in-state
out-of-state
industrial
POTWs
Released thru land clearing
Total gross emissions, MMT
Sequestered by forests
10.8
17.3
16.3
52.0
19.8
13.1
1.5
2.9
0.3
0.1
0.5
2.4
3.6
1.4
0.3
0.5
1.1
144.0
-6.7
9.2
16.3
13.7
52.2
18.5
11.7
1.5
3.0
0.3
0.1
0.5
2.4
3.5
1.4
0.2
0.5
1.1
136.1
-6.7
Total net emissions MMT CO2eq
137.3
129.4
NJ Greenhouse Gas Emissions:
Estimated 1990, Projected 2020 Business as Usual (BAU),
2020 Limit, & Proposed Reductions
160
BAU
Millions of metric tons
150
2005
140
2006
130
120
Reductions that can be
achieved by EMP,
LEV, and RGGI
1990
2020
Statewide
Limit
EMP = Energy Master Plan
LEV = Low Emission Vehicle Program
RGGI = Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative
110
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Why the reduction from 2005 to
2006?
• May reflect some progress in energy efficiency
and development of renewable sources, but
• Weather fluctuation is likely the major factor
Estimated NJ GHG Emissions; Preliminary
2005
2006
commercial
industrial
residential
transportation*
in-state electric
imported electric
MSW incineration
halogenated gases (ex. SF6)
SF6
Industrial non-fuel related
Agriculture
Natural gas T&D
Landfills, in-state
out-of-state
industrial
POTWs
Released thru land clearing
Total gross emissions, MMT
Sequestered by forests
10.8
17.3
16.3
52.0
19.8
13.1
1.5
2.9
0.3
0.1
0.5
2.4
3.6
1.4
0.3
0.5
1.1
144.0
-6.7
9.2
16.3
13.7
52.2
18.5
11.7
1.5
3.0
0.3
0.1
0.5
2.4
3.5
1.4
0.2
0.5
1.1
136.1
-6.7
Total net emissions MMT CO2eq
137.3
129.4
Heating Degree Days, NJ, Estimated
5800
5600
5400
5200
5000
4800
4600
4400
4200
4000
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Commercial & Residential GHGs and Heating Degree Days
Heating Degree Days (100s) and GHGs, MMT
60
50
40
30
20
Residential & Commercial GHGs, MMT
10
0
1990
Approximate Heating Degree Days, 100s
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Commercial & Residential GHGs and Heating Degree Days
Heating Degree Days (100s) and GHGs, MMT
60
50
40
30
20
Residential & Commercial GHGs, MMT
Approximate Heating Degree Days, 100s
10
0
1990
Comm. & Res. GHGs normalized to 5000 HDD
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Estimated NJ GHG Emissions; Preliminary
2005
2006
commercial
industrial
residential
transportation*
in-state electric
imported electric
MSW incineration
halogenated gases (ex. SF6)
SF6
Industrial non-fuel related
Agriculture
Natural gas T&D
Landfills, in-state
out-of-state
industrial
POTWs
Released thru land clearing
Total gross emissions, MMT
Sequestered by forests
10.8
17.3
16.3
52.0
19.8
13.1
1.5
2.9
0.3
0.1
0.5
2.4
3.6
1.4
0.3
0.5
1.1
144.0
-6.7
9.2
16.3
13.7
52.2
18.5
11.7
1.5
3.0
0.3
0.1
0.5
2.4
3.5
1.4
0.2
0.5
1.1
136.1
-6.7
Total net emissions MMT CO2eq
137.3
129.4
NJ Electricity Use; In-state and Imported
Data from USDOE/EIA State Electricity Profiles
90,000,000
80,000,000
70,000,000
GWh
60,000,000
50,000,000
40,000,000
30,000,000
Imported
20,000,000
Generated In-state
10,000,000
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Cooling Degree Days, NJ, Estimated
1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
What about the future?
• Prediction is difficult
• Nevertheless, we must try to predict and plan
• NJ Energy Master Plan presents predictions for
electric use
from Energy Master Plan (EMP): http://www.nj.gov/emp/
Predicted BAU growth
in electric use
(from EMP)
• Overall, growth of 1.38% per year between 2007
& 2020
• This rate leads to 97,800 GWh use in 2020
• In peak demand, growth of 1.75% per year
between 2007 and 2020
EMP identifies 4 big challenges:
• Growth in supply of electricity has not kept pace
with growth in demand
• Price of energy has increased substantially
recently, and has become more volatile
• Without action, contribution to global warming
and other pollution will continue
• State has much less authority over supply and
price than previously
EMP identifies 5 major actions to
meet these challenges:
• Maximize energy conservation and energy
efficiency
• Reduce peak electricity demand
• Strive to exceed current RPS and meet 30% of
demand with renewables by 2020
• Develop a 21st century infrastructure
• Invest in innovative clean energy technologies
and businesses
If successful, these actions will lead
to major reductions in demand and
increases in supply of clean and
renewable electric power
• But, “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's
about the future.” Niels Bohr
• And, major systems have not been behaving in a
linear manner recently
World Crude Oil Production & Price
from US DOE/EIA, http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/t11d.xls and
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/rwtcM.htm
Million barrels per day & U.S. dollars per barrel
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
monthly average
production
70
60
50
40
30
monthly average
price, WTI crude,
2007 dollars
20
10
Dec-72
Dec-77
Dec-82
Dec-87
Dec-92
Dec-97
Dec-02
Dec-07
And we have a long way to go in
GHG emissions reduction to meet
the 2050 goal
NJ total GHG emissions; historic, current,
projected, and limits
200
Millions of metric tons CO2 eq.
180
160
2020 BAU
140
120
2004
2020
limit
1990
100
80
60
40
Relative sizes
2050 limit
20
0
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
Challenges ahead suggest
it is important to:
• Take long-term view
• Expect variations from predictions
• Strive for broad-based, multi-faceted approach
to meeting energy needs and cutting GHG
emissions
• Maximize resiliency, redundancy, flexibility