Transcript Questionnaire Design for Linked Surveys of International Migration in the CIS Countries: Issues and Proposed Approach Richard E.

Questionnaire Design for Linked Surveys of
International Migration in the CIS Countries:
Issues and Proposed Approach
Richard E. Bilsborrow
For the World Bank
Presented at ECE Workshop on Using
Household Surveys to Improve
International Migration Statistics,
Geneva, October 16, 2012
Why use surveys?
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Detailed information is needed on migrants to study
determinants or consequences of international
migration
It is impractical to obtain detailed data from existing
sources of data, such as a census, or a household
survey with another main purpose and samples too
small or randomly selected
Good questionnaires and interviewers are necessary to
ensure data collected are of high quality, including on
sensitive topics, such as income and undocumented
migrants
Migration is a social experiment
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Migrants, by moving, are subject to a
“treatment”
To assess the effects of the “treatment”,
one needs to compare migrants with an
appropriate group of “not treated persons”
Which is the correct comparison
group?
ORIGIN
Emigrants Non-migrants
DESTINATION Immigrants Non-migrants
The challenge of studying the
determinants of migration
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Get comparable data on emigrants at
destination and on non-migrants at origin:
ideally, simultaneous surveys are thus
needed at both origin and destination
Second best alternative: a survey at origin
asking “proxy respondents” about
emigrants from household, plus
interviewing non-migrants
Thus the desirability of linked origindestination country surveys
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Best example is NIDI surveys of 5
countries of origin in Middle East and
Africa and two of destination in Europe,
though full analysis potential not realized
in the end
But there are others, such as MAFE, on
migration from Africa to Europe; and the
Latin America Migration project of Massey
and others at Princeton University on
migrants to the US
NIDI-Eurostat Survey Project, 1997-1998
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Common methodology is needed not only in defining
migrants but in design of samples and questionnaires
Special sampling methods needed, appropriate for “rare
elements”
NIDI used both appropriate comparison groups in its
survey design—almost!
These provide useful experience for designing origindestination surveys in the CIS region, which constitute
an almost ideal form of “migration system” for study
Survey design in countries of
emigration in the CIS region
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Need to collect data on both households with
emigrants and those without, as well as on return
migrants
Then 3 populations to be surveyed: households
with no migrants, with emigrants (hereafter
referred to as out-migrants), and with return
migrants, oversampling latter two
Suppose we seek 3,000 hhs with an emigrant &
3,000 with a return migrant. In all of these, we
will also interview a non-migrant. Therefore may
not need so many non-migrant households
Studying the determinants of migration
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Requires collecting data about the situation of the
migrant and his/her household around the time of
migration, since that is what affected the
migration decision, not current data at interview
To study the determinants of migration, migrants
and non-migrants are pooled, and a migration
model is estimated in which the dependent
variable is whether the person migrated or not
Therefore, data are needed on the situation of the
non-migrant also at the time migrants moved
rather than at the time of interview.
This has not been done before, but can be done
Collecting data on non-migrants
For how many years back (reference time) should
data be collected on non-migrants?
 This depends on 3 things: 1) the definition of
migrants of interest; 2) the time when migrants
moved within that reference period; and 3) what
is feasible and practical to ask about (memory
recall)
 If we use (1) a 10 year cut-off in the definition of
migration, (2) the mean time of migration is
likely to be 4-5 years ago, so the goal is to ask
non-migrants about their situation around that
time.
Structure of draft questionnaires
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Household questionnaire--contains
sections on household roster, housing
quality and finance, assets and
expenditures, health and income, and
identification of out-migrants.
Individual questionnaires--exist for nonmigrants, out-migrants, return migrants
(and immigrants when of interest)
Household questionnaire: household
roster, sections 1 & 2
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Based on currently resident hh members (head
may be out of country); affects listing and
relationship to head response
Questions on p. 1 obtain country of birth, current
age, and whether ever lived outside country and
last time: this identifies immigrants and return
migrants
Includes questions on ethnicity, current education
and marital status, current work status.
Section 2 has easy questions on housing quality
plus several on use of banks, internet and
computers
Section 3. Household assets and
expenditures
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Household assets list provides easy (if lengthy)
indicator of wealth; should have diverse items,
some of which most will have and some few
Household expenditures is often considered a
more reliable indicator of the current economic
status of a household from a survey
Proposed chart is intended to collect most
expenditures in the least time, but it still requires
considerable time; different reference periods for
different types of items—e.g., food vs. appliances
Section 4. Household health and
income
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Small table proposed for recording basic data, on
illnesses in household in past 3 months, whether
affected normal activities, whether received care,
cost, etc.; could instead add to household roster
Dilemma exists with respect to the collection of
data on household income; questions proposed
are an attempt to collect reasonable data without
many questions
This is especially the case with respect to income
from business, own-account activities, farming
Alternative approach is use of simple set of
probing questions to create income categories
Section 6. Identification of outmigrants
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Short section, could be moved to end of
section 1 or before section on nonmigrants (currently section 5).
Asks about absent “household members”,
those who left the household to live
abroad and continue to live abroad
Need to identify their current age and
when (last) left household
From this determine eligibility for outmigrant questionnaire
Section 7. Out-migrant questionnaire
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Seeks minimum data on situation when first left
the country if more than 10 years ago
Apply abbreviated international migration history,
including episodes of return migration
Obtains more detailed data on the situation of
the migrant and his/her household in country of
origin on first move at 15+ in past 10 years; this
includes education, marital status, employment/
income of migrant plus household size and
composition, relatives abroad and networks,
sources of information, financing of move, etc.
Section 7, continued
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Data are also collected on settling in process in
country of arrival—sources of assistance, time to
get first work or set up business/farm
Then further data is collected on work/income in
first job abroad, business or farm, changes in
education, marital status and fertility, etc.
If this first country since 10 years ago is not
current country, then process above is repeated
for last move abroad
The most detailed data, however, is collected on
current situation of out-migrant, to measure
consequences of migration for migrant
Section 7, concluded
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Further data are obtained on the out-migrant
situation to understand current situation and
factors that may influence migration intentions-whether to remain or return
This includes dwelling and family situation there:
marital status/fertility and changes; whether has
close relatives living there, back in origin, or
elsewhere; language ability, citizenship; whether
gained more education abroad, etc.
Finally, questions are asked about migration
intentions & possible sources of funding for
moving
Section 8. Remittances from outmigrant
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This short module is to be implemented for each
recent out-migrant from the household, together
with section 7
First asks about help household gave migrant
when he/she first left
Then asks when migrant first sent money back,
but focuses on the amount of money and value of
goods sent in the past 12 months
Asks mechanism used, and how remittances were
used, permitting an appraisal of their importance
to the household and effects on investment
Non-migrant questionnaire
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First, there is a big issue of how many nonmigrants to interview in non-migrant household,
including whether to always include the head
Structure/content of questionnaire is similar to
that of out-migrant, from age, education, marital
status/fertility history, first job, to more details
about situation 4-5 years ago as well as at the
current time of interview
This allows pooling data from non-migrants and
migrants to investigate the factors determining
why these non-migrants did not migrate; and
also the study of (current) migration intentions
Section 9. Return migrant questionnaire
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Content and structure are similar to out-migrant
questionnaire, with questions added--on when
and why returned, education/training abroad and
skills gained, marital status/fertility, who
accompanied and who remained in previous
country, last economic activity before returning
Also questions are added on current work,
changes in education, marital status/fertility
changes, since returning
Finally, questions ask about current migration
intentions (to stay here, return to previous
residence, or elsewhere) and why
Section 10. Questionnaire for Immigrants
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To be asked in receiving countries and others
interested, project otherwise will have data only
on when came and current characteristics from
household roster
Immigrant questionnaire has questions on country
of origin, previous countries lived in, why left, why
chose to come here, who accompanied and who
remained behind, soures of information prior to
coming, documents, language skills, contacts with
labor recruiters, etc.
Additional data is then sought on changes since
arrival, in marital status/fertility, education, etc.,
and on current situation regarding work, migration
intentions
Proper analysis of the determinants (or
consequences!) of migration
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…also requires taking into account the effects of
the context in which migrants and non-migrants
live and make migration and other decisions
This requires having measures of that context
Some key aspects of this context can be captured
through administration of a community-level
questionnaire
This permits formulating better statistical models
of the decision to migrate or not, taking into
account individual, household, and community
contextual factors (multi-level, or mixed, models)
If we can do these things….
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For countries of origin and destination, with
common definitions and methodologies and linked
surveys, we will
Provide a wealth of data for understanding the
determinants and consequences of migration in
CIS states, with valuable information for policy
And also make possible important advances in
migration data collection and analysis
methodologies.
MANY THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION!