Transcript MOGREPS 2012 upgrades and future plans Richard Swinbank © Crown copyright Met Office.

MOGREPS 2012 upgrades
and future plans
Richard Swinbank
© Crown copyright Met Office
MOGREPS domains (early 2012)
2.2km grid (new)
Up to 36hr
6-hourly update
18km grid
Up to 60hr
6-hourly update
60km grid
Up to 72hr
6-hourly update
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MOGREPS domains 2013
2.2km grid
Up to 36hr
6-hourly update
Regional
ensemble
obsolescent
33km grid
Up to 72hr
6-hourly update
© Crown copyright Met Office
Overview of 2012 Upgrades
• 4 cycles per day, 12 forecast members per cycle (control + 11
perturbed members)
• ETKF uses a full set of 22 perturbed members
• 24-member products by lagging last 2 cycles
• UK convective-scale ensemble MOGREPS-UK 2.2 km
• At first nested in MOGREPS-R
• Now directly nested in Global
• Global 3-day ensemble MOGREPS-G ~32 km (N400)
• Increase ETKF members from 22 to 44
• NB. MOGREPS-15 (used for TIGGE) stays at ~60km (N216), but
has changed to L85 & aligned with GloSea5.
• Retire MOGREPS-R (mid-2013)
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MOGREPS-G (global
ensemble) developments
• Currently run to 3 days at N400L70 (~33km)
• Implement ENDGAME dynamical core, plus
associated physics (GA6) late 2013/early 2014.
(MOGREPS-UK & -15 will follow soon
afterwards)
• Extend range to 5-7 days. Extension to 7 days
would:
• Enable global probabilistic products to complement
current 6-day global deterministic forecast.
• Support full forecast range of storm surge ensemble
• Support Global Hazard Map
Medium-range and
Seamless Forecasting
• Currently the medium-range ensemble, MOGREPS-15 is
essentially the same as MOGREPS-G but run to 15 days using
UK member-state computer time at ECMWF.
• We are planning to bring together ensemble prediction systems
on the medium-range and monthly to seasonal timescales,
including.
• Initial condition perturbations from ETKF and, in longer term,
Ensemble Data Assimilation System;
• Coupled model to better represent ocean-atmosphere interactions.
• Previous 15-day forecast case studies showed similar
performance from coupled and uncoupled models for week 1,
with some improvements at week 2.
• A more comprehensive comparison of MOGREPS-15 and
GloSea5 (coupled model) ensembles is currently underway,
comparing coupled both systems at N216L85 resolution.
Schematic of possible
coupled medium-range/
monthly/ seasonal EPS
Suite 2
2 members
15 days - 2 months
Suite 1
Suite 3
2 members
15 days - 7 months
12 members
15 days
(twice a day)
Suite 4
6 members
Hindcast
Medium-range
products
Monthly
products
Seasonal
products
Any Questions?
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