Electoral College Consequences Winner-take-all Battleground states Targeted in campaigns Policy benefits Depresses turnout Build broad geographical coalition Misfire? Bush 3.5 million popular vote.
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Transcript Electoral College Consequences Winner-take-all Battleground states Targeted in campaigns Policy benefits Depresses turnout Build broad geographical coalition Misfire? Bush 3.5 million popular vote.
Electoral College Consequences
Winner-take-all
Battleground states
Targeted in campaigns
Policy benefits
Depresses turnout
Build broad geographical coalition
Misfire?
Bush 3.5 million popular vote margin
Swing of 150,000 votes in Ohio
Britain’s Division
Head of Government
Head of State
President wears “many hats”
Chief of State
Manager of the Economy
Chief Executive
Commander-in-Chief
Chief Diplomat
Chief Legislator
Chief of the Party
World Leader
Constitutional Basics
Normative ?-- Hamilton, Fed No. 70.
Energy in the Executive
one person office
elected for a fixed term
national constituency
Vague formal powers from Constitution
Constitutional DNA
Hamilton
“Energy in the
Executive”
One person office
Fixed term
National
constituency
Vague formal
powers
Few Formal Executive Powers
• Administrative head of government
• Commander-in-Chief of military
• Veto (or sign) legislation
• Nominate judges, cabinet secretaries
• Treaties, pardons, convene Congress
Modern Presidency
FDR’s Legacy
Wins World War II
Ends the Great Depression
Ends economic insecurity with Social
Security
Fights for working man (unions,
minimum wage)
Reduces agricultural poverty (farm
supports)
The Modern Presidency
WWII onward
The FDR Standard (1932-45)
• Emphasis on leadership & bully pulpit
• National problems
• New role for federal government
• President as active leader
• Welfare state
• Expanded executive branch (budget)
Paradox of the Modern
Presidency
President is #1
Increased expectations of presidency
Increased staff, resources
Shift in quality and quantity of attention paid to
president
Chief policy-maker
BUT
No change in formal powers!
New American President
--Power of Clark Kent
--Expectations of Superman
Going Public Strategy
Presidents
Marshall public support for their policies
and actions
Cultivate popular cultural image of
themselves
Public Approval of President
Three general trends
Declines while in office
Economy
Rally events and scandals
Beyond Presidential Control
The Current Incumbent
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
George W. Bush Approval Ratings
Inaug
9/11
Iraq
Saddam
June 04
Bush- Social Security Roadtrip
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
56
52
47
40
41
48
43
35
2002
2005/1
Approve
2005/2
2005/3
Disapprove
Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W.
Bush is handling Social Security (USA Today/Gallup)
What is George W. Bush’s
image?
Macho
“Mission Accomplished”
Cowboy (not wimp)
Compassionate Conservative
Education President
====
Likes Children and Baseball
Patriotism
Going Public
Alternative Image?
Institutional Presidency
Jefferson in 1900 had 2 assistants
Brownlow Committee
“The president needs help”
President not Congress should be in charge
of executive branch
Presidency is Many People
EOP: OMB, NSC,
CEA, “czars,” VP,
and WHO
WHO: close advisors,
no Senate approval
Where is the Power?
Cabinet Officials
Department of State
Department of
Defense
Department of
Treasury
Exec. Office of Pres.
White House Office
(WHO)
NSC
OMB
CEA
Institutional Presidency I: West
Wing
Institutional Presidency II:
OEOB
Implications of Instit. Pres
Radical change in system of government?
Increased presidential control of policy
making and centralization of the decision
making
Increases potential for screw ups
Reduced accountability
Transition from Historical to
Modern Presidency
Historic Presidency
President is a clerk
Congress #1
Modern Presidency
Increased popular expectations
President #1
No change in formal powers
Modern Presidents Response
Devote tremendous time and resources to
manipulating public image
Going public
Have immense staff of political, policy, and
partisan experts
Institutional presidency
Are presidents stronger– YES, but
expectations outstrip capacity
World’s Greatest Clerkship
Neustadt, Presidential Power (Al’s prof)
power of president do not flow from literary
reading of constitution
Decisions are not self executing JFK, Cuban
Missile Crisis
"The conditions that promote his leadership in
form, preclude a guarantee of leadership in
fact."
“presidential power is power to bargain”
Limited formal powers=constant
bargaining
President can
Nominate judges, but
Propose trade treaties, but
Propose popular legislation, but
Propose spending less on military golf courses,
Will Presidents keep their promises?
Constitutional odds are stacked against them!
Presidential power = persuasion
Formal powers are minimal
Can propose legislation, C in C
Dependent on other institutions
Informal powers are crucial
Presidential power is power to persuade
Presidents have to bargain
Informal Powers
Professional reputation
Electoral results
Bargaining
Carrot and the stick
Marshalling public opinion (going public)
The Stick and Senator Shelby
Dem criticizes
Clinton’s Budget
Space Shuttle to TX
No Tickets for ‘Bama
Celebration at WH
Shelby’s response?
Unsuccessful Persuasion
Clinton Campaign Promise
Allow gays and lesbians to serve openly in
military
Congress
Sam Nunn (D-GA) on the submarine
Don’t ask, don’t tell in Family Medical Leave
Act
C in C of Military
Cruising chat rooms and gay bars
Success of Don’t Ask/Don’t Tell
Source: CNN Special
Report
Truman and Marshall Plan
Truman’s prospects for Aid to Europe
Un-elected president
Very unpopular
Large GOP majorities in Congress
Memory of Great Depression
Increasing Isolationism
Ranking Presidents
Will history judge Bill Clinton as a great
president? George W. Bush?
Why or why not?
Ranking Post WW II Presidents
Good/Great
Truman
Eisenhower
JFK
–LBJ
–Reagan
–Clinton
Why such variety?
Bad/Failures
Nixon
Ford
Carter
Bush (41)
Greenstein
Executive branch “reflects the character and
personality of the president”
highly personalized nature of modern
American Presidency
Presidential success = Characteristics of
Individual President
Effectiveness as Public Communicator
Bully Pulpit
Organizational Capacity
Loyalty
Candid discussion
Prevent group-think
Political Skill
Establish reputation as
“skilled operator”
Opposes, then Signs
Corporate
Responsibility Act
Homeland Security
Public opposes
Tax Cuts
War in Iraq
Vision Thing
Possession of a set of
overarching goals
Over-rated?
Cognitive Style
Presidency not a
multiple choice test
Reagan vs. Carter
Emotional Intelligence
Disturbed
Nixon
LBJ
Risk-takers
JFK
Clinton
Skrownek
Presidents in Historical Time
Times affects nature of skill
Political time as a resource for or
constraint on a president
Regime
strength
Vulnerable regime
Resilient regime
President’s Party
Affiliation
Opposed
Affiliated
Reconstructive
president
Disjunctive
president
Preemptive
president
Articulator
(Faithful Son)
president
Political Time
The idea that at any given time there is a
dominant ideological regime, connected to,
but even broader than party.
A president’s party’s relationship to the
dominant partisan regime LIMITS or
EXPANDS a president’s legitimate
authority to change national policies
Politics of Reconstruction
Greatest potential for
leadership
New ideological
commitments
Create new political
coalitions
Politics of Preemption
Constrained by dominant
ideological regime
“Era of big government
is dead” NAFTA,
Welfare reform,
balanced budget
Focus on creative political
leadership
V-Chip, New Covenant
Danger or personal
political isolation
Politics of Articulation
“Normal” situation
Deliver on Regime’s
unfulfilled policy agenda
Tax cuts, deregulation,
moral issues
Partial birth abortion,
abstinence education, gay
marriage
Maintain Political Coalition
Prevent Moral-Economic
split
Is a strong president good?
Framers
Can a president represent an entire nation
Woodrow Wilson/Teddy Roosevelt critique
Presidential Power- 2 views
It is not only the president’s "right, but his duty to
do anything that the needs of the nation demanded
unless such action was forbidden by the
Congress." T. Roosevelt
The president can exercise no power which cannot
be fairly and reasonably traced to some specific
grant of power .. either in the federal constitution
or in an act of Congress. There is no undefined
residuum of power which he can exercise because
it seems to him to be in the public interest.
William Taft 1916.