Electoral College Consequences Winner-take-all Battleground states Targeted in campaigns Policy benefits Depresses turnout Build broad geographical coalition Misfire? Bush 3.5 million popular vote.
Download ReportTranscript Electoral College Consequences Winner-take-all Battleground states Targeted in campaigns Policy benefits Depresses turnout Build broad geographical coalition Misfire? Bush 3.5 million popular vote.
Electoral College Consequences Winner-take-all Battleground states Targeted in campaigns Policy benefits Depresses turnout Build broad geographical coalition Misfire? Bush 3.5 million popular vote margin Swing of 150,000 votes in Ohio Britain’s Division Head of Government Head of State President wears “many hats” Chief of State Manager of the Economy Chief Executive Commander-in-Chief Chief Diplomat Chief Legislator Chief of the Party World Leader Constitutional Basics Normative ?-- Hamilton, Fed No. 70. Energy in the Executive one person office elected for a fixed term national constituency Vague formal powers from Constitution Constitutional DNA Hamilton “Energy in the Executive” One person office Fixed term National constituency Vague formal powers Few Formal Executive Powers • Administrative head of government • Commander-in-Chief of military • Veto (or sign) legislation • Nominate judges, cabinet secretaries • Treaties, pardons, convene Congress Modern Presidency FDR’s Legacy Wins World War II Ends the Great Depression Ends economic insecurity with Social Security Fights for working man (unions, minimum wage) Reduces agricultural poverty (farm supports) The Modern Presidency WWII onward The FDR Standard (1932-45) • Emphasis on leadership & bully pulpit • National problems • New role for federal government • President as active leader • Welfare state • Expanded executive branch (budget) Paradox of the Modern Presidency President is #1 Increased expectations of presidency Increased staff, resources Shift in quality and quantity of attention paid to president Chief policy-maker BUT No change in formal powers! New American President --Power of Clark Kent --Expectations of Superman Going Public Strategy Presidents Marshall public support for their policies and actions Cultivate popular cultural image of themselves Public Approval of President Three general trends Declines while in office Economy Rally events and scandals Beyond Presidential Control The Current Incumbent 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 George W. Bush Approval Ratings Inaug 9/11 Iraq Saddam June 04 Bush- Social Security Roadtrip 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 56 52 47 40 41 48 43 35 2002 2005/1 Approve 2005/2 2005/3 Disapprove Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling Social Security (USA Today/Gallup) What is George W. Bush’s image? Macho “Mission Accomplished” Cowboy (not wimp) Compassionate Conservative Education President ==== Likes Children and Baseball Patriotism Going Public Alternative Image? Institutional Presidency Jefferson in 1900 had 2 assistants Brownlow Committee “The president needs help” President not Congress should be in charge of executive branch Presidency is Many People EOP: OMB, NSC, CEA, “czars,” VP, and WHO WHO: close advisors, no Senate approval Where is the Power? Cabinet Officials Department of State Department of Defense Department of Treasury Exec. Office of Pres. White House Office (WHO) NSC OMB CEA Institutional Presidency I: West Wing Institutional Presidency II: OEOB Implications of Instit. Pres Radical change in system of government? Increased presidential control of policy making and centralization of the decision making Increases potential for screw ups Reduced accountability Transition from Historical to Modern Presidency Historic Presidency President is a clerk Congress #1 Modern Presidency Increased popular expectations President #1 No change in formal powers Modern Presidents Response Devote tremendous time and resources to manipulating public image Going public Have immense staff of political, policy, and partisan experts Institutional presidency Are presidents stronger– YES, but expectations outstrip capacity World’s Greatest Clerkship Neustadt, Presidential Power (Al’s prof) power of president do not flow from literary reading of constitution Decisions are not self executing JFK, Cuban Missile Crisis "The conditions that promote his leadership in form, preclude a guarantee of leadership in fact." “presidential power is power to bargain” Limited formal powers=constant bargaining President can Nominate judges, but Propose trade treaties, but Propose popular legislation, but Propose spending less on military golf courses, Will Presidents keep their promises? Constitutional odds are stacked against them! Presidential power = persuasion Formal powers are minimal Can propose legislation, C in C Dependent on other institutions Informal powers are crucial Presidential power is power to persuade Presidents have to bargain Informal Powers Professional reputation Electoral results Bargaining Carrot and the stick Marshalling public opinion (going public) The Stick and Senator Shelby Dem criticizes Clinton’s Budget Space Shuttle to TX No Tickets for ‘Bama Celebration at WH Shelby’s response? Unsuccessful Persuasion Clinton Campaign Promise Allow gays and lesbians to serve openly in military Congress Sam Nunn (D-GA) on the submarine Don’t ask, don’t tell in Family Medical Leave Act C in C of Military Cruising chat rooms and gay bars Success of Don’t Ask/Don’t Tell Source: CNN Special Report Truman and Marshall Plan Truman’s prospects for Aid to Europe Un-elected president Very unpopular Large GOP majorities in Congress Memory of Great Depression Increasing Isolationism Ranking Presidents Will history judge Bill Clinton as a great president? George W. Bush? Why or why not? Ranking Post WW II Presidents Good/Great Truman Eisenhower JFK –LBJ –Reagan –Clinton Why such variety? Bad/Failures Nixon Ford Carter Bush (41) Greenstein Executive branch “reflects the character and personality of the president” highly personalized nature of modern American Presidency Presidential success = Characteristics of Individual President Effectiveness as Public Communicator Bully Pulpit Organizational Capacity Loyalty Candid discussion Prevent group-think Political Skill Establish reputation as “skilled operator” Opposes, then Signs Corporate Responsibility Act Homeland Security Public opposes Tax Cuts War in Iraq Vision Thing Possession of a set of overarching goals Over-rated? Cognitive Style Presidency not a multiple choice test Reagan vs. Carter Emotional Intelligence Disturbed Nixon LBJ Risk-takers JFK Clinton Skrownek Presidents in Historical Time Times affects nature of skill Political time as a resource for or constraint on a president Regime strength Vulnerable regime Resilient regime President’s Party Affiliation Opposed Affiliated Reconstructive president Disjunctive president Preemptive president Articulator (Faithful Son) president Political Time The idea that at any given time there is a dominant ideological regime, connected to, but even broader than party. A president’s party’s relationship to the dominant partisan regime LIMITS or EXPANDS a president’s legitimate authority to change national policies Politics of Reconstruction Greatest potential for leadership New ideological commitments Create new political coalitions Politics of Preemption Constrained by dominant ideological regime “Era of big government is dead” NAFTA, Welfare reform, balanced budget Focus on creative political leadership V-Chip, New Covenant Danger or personal political isolation Politics of Articulation “Normal” situation Deliver on Regime’s unfulfilled policy agenda Tax cuts, deregulation, moral issues Partial birth abortion, abstinence education, gay marriage Maintain Political Coalition Prevent Moral-Economic split Is a strong president good? Framers Can a president represent an entire nation Woodrow Wilson/Teddy Roosevelt critique Presidential Power- 2 views It is not only the president’s "right, but his duty to do anything that the needs of the nation demanded unless such action was forbidden by the Congress." T. Roosevelt The president can exercise no power which cannot be fairly and reasonably traced to some specific grant of power .. either in the federal constitution or in an act of Congress. There is no undefined residuum of power which he can exercise because it seems to him to be in the public interest. William Taft 1916.