Transcript      Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level Representing the European electricity industry at expert, strategic and policymaking levels.

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Representing the European electricity industry at expert, strategic and
policymaking levels.
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General
Governing a post-2012 Climate
Second Principles
level
Policy:
Participation - based on the GETS4 analysis
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Stakeholder
Conference “Post-2012 Climate Policy for the EU”
Brussels, 22 November 2004
Fifth level
Dr Bill KYTE, OBE
Chairman
and Sustainable Development
Environment
Principles for a Future post-2012 Regime
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A genuine
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2. Longer timelines
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3. Emissions reduction goals
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4. Market-oriented policies
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5. Participation of all sectors
6. Increased R&D and technology transfer &
dissemination
7. Encourage changes in consumer behaviour
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GETS4 Aims
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To
assess
theMaster
impacts
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future world GHG
reduction schemes to 2012 and beyond
 emissions
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 Third level- In a quantitative manner (€ and tCO2eq)
 Fourth level
- To 2022
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> Kyoto Commitment Period 1 + 10 years
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- Using a wide range of scenarios & sensitivities
- Within a single analytical framework
> results from all scenarios & sensitivities directly
comparable
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Principles for a Future post-2012 Regime
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1. A Genuine Global Approach [the key issue!]
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 Third level
- EU emits only 14% of global emissions
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- Common objectives for the environment, but also for
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competitive reasons
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Developing countries need to play an increasing role
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GETS4
conclusions:
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-Second
Impactslevel
are dominated by the positions of Russia
and US
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- If Russia does not participate, compliance costs and
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market
traded prices would double
- If US enacted McCain-Liebermann, it would increase
world system compliance costs by 3-6 times
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Principles for a Future post-2012 Regime
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Longer
Timelines
 Second level
- Absence of certainty creates excessive commercial risk
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- Clarity is needed on long-term aim (2050) and on goals
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and instruments over a long-period of time
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3. Emissions Reduction Goals
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Reduction goals must be based on sound scientific and
economic analyses
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GETS4
Targets and Abatement Potential 2020
conclusions:
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McCain- Compliance
Lieberman
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costs increase
 exponentially
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with severity of
 Fourth level
targets
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Price (Euro/tCO2eq)
45.0
- Increasing all
targets in all
schemes by 50%
leads to system
compliance costs
3-5 times higher
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35.0
US
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
Kyoto Bloc Russia Out
10.0
5.0
0.0
Kyoto Bloc Russia In
Quantity (MtCO2eq)
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GETS4 conclusions:
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A 2ºCtotarget
a dramatic
effect
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GETS4 has
simulated targets based on:
Stabilising atmospheric GHG concentration
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- Equal world per capita emissions (“contraction &
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convergence”)
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- If the EU-25 alone transfers to its share of a 550 ppm
CO2eq target in the period 2013-22, EU-25 compliance
costs treble:
- Leading to a doubling of world compliance costs
- The potential costs of “going it alone” are very high
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Principles for a Future post-2012 Regime
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Market-Oriented
Policies
 Second level
- Market-based instruments ensure compliance at the
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lowest cost. They should be the preferred tool to achieve
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level reductions worldwide.
emissions
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- Kyoto’s flexible mechanisms must be available under
simplified procedures
- Global emissions trading will be an important policy
instrument to achieve emissions reductions.
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GETS4 conclusions:
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- Linking significantly reduces costs for participants
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Highest
benefits accrue when linked schemes all have
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significant targets
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6-17%
reductions in system compliance costs are projected
from linking the Kyoto scheme to the relatively minor “Other”
schemes modelled
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Principles for a Future post-2012 Regime
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Participation
of all sectors
 Second level
- Specific sectors should not be exempted from
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contributing
to emissions reduction goals
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GETS4 conclusions:
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A number of factors greatly alter costs of meeting a given
set of absolute commitments
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Supplementarity (minimum domestic action) is a costly
constraint as it restrains trading
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High GDP projection increases system compliance costs
2-4 times
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Principles for a Future post-2012 Regime
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Increased
andtext
technology
dissemination
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level
- Accelerated
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level and increased funding, and international
coordination are needed
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- Increase the use of energy end-use efficient technologies
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and non- or low-emitting generation technologies, such as:
- Renewables
- Nuclear power
- Combined heat and power (CHP)
- High-efficiency natural gas
- Advanced clean coal (including CO2 capture and storage).
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Principles for a Future post-2012 Regime
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Encourage
in consumer
behaviour
 Second level
- Consumers and their choices make markets
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leveland measures should be designed to influence
- Policies
consumers to adopt a more climate-friendly behaviour
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- Promotion of education and training on more efficient
use of resources and environmental awareness
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At the forefront of the electricity industry.
www.eurelectric.org
+ 32 2 515 10 00
[email protected]