Predicting 2013 Trend of Homicide Rate in St. Louis City By Shih-Hua Chen Yao Zhang Teng ma Group E URL: www.umsl.edu/~yz3pd/is6833.html.
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Predicting 2013 Trend of Homicide Rate in St. Louis City
By Shih-Hua Chen Yao Zhang Teng ma Group E URL: www.umsl.edu/~yz3pd/is6833.html
Objectives
• Predicting the neighborhood(s) with the highest homicide rate in 2013.
St. Louis City Overview
• • • • • • • • The 52 nd largest city in the nation Population: 318,069 (based on 2011 Census) Percent high school graduate or higher 81.90% Median household income $34,402 Individual below poverty level 26.0% 10% rely on public transit The most dangerous city in the US in 2007 and 2010, & the 2 nd most dangerous in 2011 (CNN Money).
St. Louis City consists of 79 neighborhoods.
•
St. Louis City Overview
7 year homicide rate trend
Homicide Rate per 100,000 people
50,00 45,00 40,00 35,00 37,86 30,00 25,00 20,00 39,63 37,19 46,88 40,26 40,55 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 35,26 Homicide Rate per 100,000 people
Overview
Methodology
•
Quantitative
o Trend analysis/linear regression • Based on 8-year murder rate historical data and population per neighborhood o Multiple regression • Based on 8-year murder rate historical data, limited income and education statistics
• • • • •
Trend Analysis Sampling There are about 70 neighborhoods in City of St Louis ( http://www.slmpd.org/crime_stats.html
) Murder Rate=murder index/population*1,000 Choose neighborhood with population>5,000 4 neighborhoods with high rate-Jeff Venderlou, O'Fallon, The Great Ville, Well/GoodFellow 2 representative neighborhoods from Central & south St. Louis-Central West End & Tower Grove
Academy Baden Benton Park Benton Park West Bevo Mill Boulevard Heights Carondelet Carr Square Central West End Cheltenham Clayton-Tamm Clifton Heights College Hill columbus Squre Covenant-Blu/Grand Ctr DeBaliviere Place Downtown Downtown West Dutchtown Fairground Forest Park SE Fountain Park Fox Park Gravois Park Hamilton Heights Hi-Point Holly Hills Hyde Park Jeff Vanderlou Kingsway East Kingsway West Lafaye e Square
2005
2 1 2 7 1 0 1 3 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 3 2 4 0 2 2 1 0 6 6 4 0 0
2006
2 2 3 5 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 2 2 4 1 2 2 0 7 1 0 3 4 2 0 0
2007
3 1 4 3 1 0 4 6 0 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 1 5 2 4 0 3 10 8 0 0
2008
2 0 6 6 1 0 2 4 2 0 1 3 1 3 0 0 0 3 6 5 1 0 0 3 13 4 6 0 0 5 5 0
2011
3 0 2 9 1 0 1 4 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 2 0 2 0 4 2 1 1 1 9 5 0 0
2009
5 1 3 7 0 0 2 6 0 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 5 3 0 0 3 2 1 3 6 0 6 10 4 0 0
2010
2 0 2 4 0 0 1 2 1 1 0 3 1 2 1 1 0 1 5 9 0 0 0 4 2 6 0 5 7 3 0 1 0 2 5 0 0 1 0 1 7 0 0 4 1 1 0 0 1 0 8 2 1 1 3 5 2 4 0 4 6 3 1 0 2816 7268 3532 4404 12654 8708 8661 2774 14473 620 2251 3074 1871 1869 3562 3466 13000 3940 15770 1793 2913 1484 2632 5225 3105 2169 3701 2668 5557 3542 3441 2078
3.21
0.00
0.28
0.00
0.31
1.42
0.41
0.28
0.68
0.08
0.00
0.12
0.72
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.13
0.56
0.00
0.00
0.38
0.96
2.58
0.00
0.00
1.12
1.80
0.56
1.16
0.00
1.60
0.00
0.28
0.00
0.08
0.71
0.96
0.28
0.45
0.08
0.00
0.12
0.36
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.25
1.67
0.69
2.70
0.00
0.38
1.29
0.00
0.00
2.25
1.08
0.56
0.29
0.00
0.53
0.54
0.00
0.29
0.00
1.07
0.69
0.00
0.45
0.16
0.00
0.12
0.72
0.14
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.51
0.13
2.23
0.34
1.35
0.76
0.00
0.64
0.00
0.00
1.12
0.72
1.98
0.29
0.00
2.14
1.07
0.00
0.00
0.15
2.13
0.83
0.28
0.45
0.00
0.11
0.35
0.36
0.21
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.76
0.38
2.79
0.34
0.00
0.00
0.57
1.93
0.00
0.00
1.50
2.34
1.41
1.45
0.00
3.21
0.00
0.28
0.00
0.15
1.07
0.96
0.00
1.14
0.08
0.00
0.12
0.72
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.33
1.27
0.19
0.00
0.00
2.02
0.76
0.19
1.29
0.00
0.00
2.25
1.80
0.85
1.74
0.00
1.07
0.54
0.28
0.00
0.08
0.71
0.55
0.00
0.45
0.00
0.00
0.35
0.36
0.14
1.61
0.44
0.00
0.25
0.32
5.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.77
0.97
0.00
0.27
1.87
1.26
0.56
1.74
0.00
2.14
0.54
0.00
0.00
0.08
0.71
1.24
0.28
0.68
0.00
0.11
0.35
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.51
0.19
1.12
0.00
1.35
0.00
0.77
1.61
0.00
0.00
0.37
1.62
0.56
0.29
0.48
2.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.15
0.36
0.96
0.00
0.23
0.00
0.00
0.46
0.36
0.07
0.00
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.51
1.12
0.34
0.67
1.14
0.96
0.97
0.46
0.00
1.50
1.08
0.56
1.16
0.00
Lewis Place Lindenwood Park Marine Villa Mark Twain Mark Twain I-70 Ind. McKinley Heights Midtown Mount Pleasant Near N. Riverfront North Hampton North Point North Riverfront O'Fallon Old North St. Louis Patch Peabody-Darst-Webbe Penrose Princeton Heights Shaw Soulard St. Louis Hills St. Louis Place The Great Ville The Hill The Ville Tiffany Tower Grove East Tower Grove South Vandeventer Walnut Park East Walnut Park West Well/GoodFellow West End 3 0 0 2 2 1 1 3 0 1 0 1 5 0 1 0 2 1 1 1 0 3 10 0 0 0 0 0 4 13 5 9 3 2 0 0 2 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 1 2 2939 9 1 2 5 0 0 1 0 0 4 3 0 5 8 4 8 0 11 3 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 7 0 2 0 2939 4 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 14 1 4 5 11 0 1 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 3 0 9 2 0 1 2939 5 1 3 5 0 1 0 0 3 1 2 2 3 5 7 5 2 1 1 3 0 1 0 4 1 0 1 0 1 2 0 3 2939 5 1 1 3 0 1 0 0 1 1 3 1 4 4 5 2 2 0 3 5 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 3 1 2939 5 0 2 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 10 5 3 3 1 0 0 6 4 0 1 1 0 0 7 0 6 4 0 0 2939 5 0 3 5 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 1 5 4 1 0 0 3 3 0 1 0 1 0 3 0 5 0 0 1 2939 1 0 1 2 0 0 1 0 0 3 0 2 7 5 3 3 1673 9486 2691 4188 1295 1497 5652 4408 553 7892 3966 937 5791 1916 2695 2378 6387 7619 6811 3440 7373 2939 6189 2443 1868 1060 5853 13333 1682 4130 3349 5859 6574 1.20
0.00
0.00
0.48
2.32
1.34
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.55
1.04
0.37
0.84
1.79
0.00
0.00
0.48
1.54
0.67
0.18
0.68
0.00
0.13
0.00
1.07
0.86
0.00
0.37
0.00
1.79
0.00
0.00
2.63
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.45
0.00
0.00
0.25
0.00
1.21
0.00
0.74
0.00
1.20
0.00
1.11
1.19
1.54
0.00
0.18
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.52
0.52
1.11
0.42
0.60
0.00
0.00
2.63
1.54
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.76
0.00
1.55
1.04
0.00
0.42
1.20
0.11
0.37
0.72
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.91
1.81
0.00
0.25
0.00
0.17
1.04
0.00
1.26
0.60
0.00
0.00
1.43
3.09
0.00
0.18
0.23
0.00
0.00
1.77
0.00
1.04
2.09
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.38
3.15
1.49
1.54
0.46
0.31
0.13
0.15
0.29
0.00
0.78
0.00
0.00
0.29
0.00
1.41
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.78
0.00
0.15
0.00
0.00
0.94
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.78
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.14
0.47
0.00
0.15
0.00
0.00
0.31
0.00
0.00
0.29
0.00
1.02 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00
1.62
1.45
0.65
0.81
0.81
0.81
0.81
0.16
0.00
0.00
0.41
1.07
0.00
0.00
0.41
1.61
0.00
1.07
0.00
1.61
0.41
0.54
0.00
0.54
0.00
0.68
0.23
0.00
1.21
2.39
0.68
1.22
0.94
0.00
0.15
0.00
0.97
1.49
2.39
0.15
2.83
0.17
0.15
1.19
0.73
1.49
1.19
0.76
0.00
0.00
0.23
1.19
0.73
0.90
1.71
0.76
0.94
0.34
0.15
1.78
0.73
0.30
0.85
0.61
0.94
0.17
0.23
0.59
0.97
1.19
0.85
0.30
0.00
0.51
0.00
1.19
1.69
1.49
0.51
0.46
0.60
0.00
0.00
0.72
2.32
0.00
0.18
0.00
1.81
0.00
0.76
0.00
0.86
0.00
0.00
0.42
• • • • •
Trend Analysis Method
Linear Regrssion using EXCEL TREND function The TREND(known_y's, known_x's, new_x's, constant) function is used to perform Linear Regression.
A least squares criterion is used and TREND tries to find the best fit under that criterion. Known_y's represent data on the "dependent variable" and variables".
Difference between TREND & FORECAST(Microsoft excel) -TREND is more suited to data points in a series such as a time series -Forecast: not necessary to be time series (http://support.microsoft.com/kb/828801) (http://en.allexperts.com/q/Excel-1059/Excel-Functions-FORECAST Known_x ’ s-murder Rate Known_y ’ s-year (define as 1-8) Coefficient-slope
Jeff Venderlou
O’Fallon
The Greater Ville
Wells-Good Fellow
Central St. Louis
Central West End 0 0 2005 2 0.138
2006 0 0 2007 3 0.207
2008 0 0 2009 2 0.138
2010 0 0 2011 1 0.069
2012 1Muder Index 0.069Murder Rate 2013
South City
Tower Grove East 0 0 2005 4 0.6834
2006 0 0 2007 1 0.171
2008 0 0 2009 2 0.342
2010 1 0.171
2011 3 0.5126
2012 2.162Muder Index 0.369Murder Rate 2013Year
people)
Result
North City-Highest Murder Rate in 2013 (per 1,000 • • • Jeffvanderlou 1.587
Wells-Goodfellow 0.658
O’Fallon 0.518 • The Greater Ville 0.196
The results show a downward trend in North city— good!
• • • • • •
Multiple Regression
To find relationship of murder rate with other factors.
Hypothesis: income, population, and high school graduation rate have some relationship with murder rate.
We selected Jeff Vanderlou, The Greater Ville, and Wells-Goodfellow.
Limitation: we couldn’t find complete income, population and graduation rate data of the past 8 years.
The analysis is useful because it provides more accurate prediction with 3 variables. Tools o o Excel – failed SAS – succeeded
Multiple Regression - Excel
The Greater Ville Intercept Year Coefficients Standard Error 1.583214
0.170641
-0.15405
0.033792
t Stat 9.27803
P-value 0.00265
Lower 95% Upper 95% 1.040158
2.126271
-4.5587
0.019788
-0.26159
-0.04651
Lower 95.0% 1.040158
-0.26159
Upper 95.0% 2.126271
-0.04651
Population Income 0 0 0 0 65535 65535 #NUM!
#NUM!
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 High school graduation rate 0 0 65535 #NUM!
0 0 0 0
Multiple Regression Method -- SAS
Multiple regression formula: y=30.2913x
1 -0.00279x
2 -0.0894x
3 +179.22
Multiple Regression Method -- SAS
Obs city 1 J-V 2 TGV 3 W-G year 2013 2013 2013 population 5557 6189 5859 edu 0.57
0.61
0.59
est 1.03711
0.48768
0.80141
• • •
Conclusion
North city is relatively more dangerous.
Jeff Vanderlou tops the homicide rate ranking.
Other tools – interactive crime mapping.
Highest murder rate Low murder rate Moderate murder rate
• • • • • • • •
References
FBI Crime in the United States 2005-2011 http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2011/crime in-the-u.s.-2011/tables/table-6 CNN Money Most Dangerous US Cities http://money.cnn.com/gallery/real_estate/2013/01/23/dangerou s-cities/2.html
NextSTL Understanding St. Louis City Crime Index and Crime http://nextstl.com/urban-living/understanding-st-louis-total-crime index-and-crime-ridden-neighborhoods SLMPD Crime Statistics http://www.slmpd.org/crime_stats.shtml
AreaVibe Neighborhoods demographic data http://www.areavibes.com/ US Census http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/searchresults.x
html?refresh=t Interactive mapping tool https://www.crimereports.com/map/index/?search=1200+Clark% 20Avenue+St.%20Louis+MO&agencyzoomlevel = All maps are created on ArcGIS.com