WINS Workshop Gordon Bell Microsoft Research February 24-25, 1998 Disclaimer: The author is here to learn about WINS.
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Transcript WINS Workshop Gordon Bell Microsoft Research February 24-25, 1998 Disclaimer: The author is here to learn about WINS.
WINS Workshop
Gordon Bell
Microsoft Research
February 24-25, 1998
Disclaimer: The author is here to learn about
WINS. As such any advice is offered with the
hope that it may be useful in developing such an
industry.
WINS Workshop
Outline
Cyberspace: the big picture
Moore’s Law; Bell’s corollary on
computer class formation …
because you may be creating a class
System on a chip: a basis for WINS
WINS & their apps
WINS Workshop
Cyberspace: top view
WINS Workshop
Everything cyberizable will be
in Cyberspace and covered by
a hierarchy of computers!
Continent
World
Body
Region/
Cars…
phys. nets
Intranet
Home…
Campus buildings
Fractal Cyberspace: a network
of … networks of … platforms
WINS Workshop
Cyberization: interface to all
bits and process information
Coupling to all information and
information processors
Pure bits
Bit tokens
State: places, things, and people
State: physical networks
WINS Workshop
Cyberspace: A spiraling quest
in 3D real space
Computation
Communication
Content
Cyberization
WINS Workshop
Moore’s Law &
Bell’s Corollary on
Computer Class Formation
WINS Workshop
Gains if 20, 40, & 60% / year
in Mops, Mbytes, Gbytes/10
60%=
Exas
1.E+21
1.E+18
40%=
Petas
1.E+15
20%=
Teras
1.E+12
1.E +9
1.E+6
1995
2005
2015
2025
2035
2045
WINS Workshop
Bell’s Evolution Of
Computer Classes
Log price
Technology enables two evolutionary paths:
1. constant performance, decreasing cost
2. constant price, increasing performance
Mainframes (central)
Mini
WSs
PCs (personals)
??
Time 1/1.26 = .8
1.26 = 2x/3 yrs -- 10x/decade;
WINS= Workshop
1.6 = 4x/3 yrs --100x/decade; 1/1.6
.62
Bell’s law of computer class
formation to cover Cyberspace
New computer platforms emerge based on
chip density evolution
Computer classes require new platforms,
networks, and cyberization
New apps and content develop around
each new class
Each class becomes a vertically
disintegrated industry based on hardware
and software standards
AFTER IT FLAILS AROUND 5-10 YEARS
WINS Workshop
Bell’s Nine Computer Price Tiers
1$:
10$:
100$:
1,000$:
10,000$:
100,000$:
1,000,000$:
10,000,000$:
100,000,000$:
embeddables e.g. greeting card
wrist watch & wallet computers
pocket/ palm computers
portable computers
personal computers (desktop)
•
departmental computers (closet)
site computers (glass house)
regional computers (glass castle)
national centers
Super server: costs more than $100,000
“Mainframe”: costs more than $1 million
an array of processors, disks,WINS
tapes,Workshop
comm ports
Computer Classes
1OM
1M
Scalables,
=
built from PCs
and SANS
100K
10K
V
C
1K
100
TV
C TC
10
WINS Workshop
Network
Interface
Platform
Platform, Interface, & Network
Computer Class Enablers
“The
Mini &
Computer” Timesharing
Mainframe
PC/WS
Web browser,
telecomputer,
tv computer
tube, core, SSI-MSI, disk, micro, floppy, PC, scalable
drum, tape, timeshare
disk, bit-map servers,
batch O/S
O/S
display, mouse,
dist’d O/S
direct >
batch
terminals via
commands
WIMP
Web, HTML
POTS
LAN
Internet
WINS Workshop
A next generation based on
Microsystems
WINS Workshop
Predictable computers
All kinds of not very interesting
network (server-based) computers
–
–
–
PC substitutes for internet access
Telephone-based internet access
Television set-based internet access
Home Area Network
Body Area Network (e.g. GTE’s BAN):
“on body”, “Guardian Angel”
System-on-a-chip industry
WINS Workshop
The Microsystems Industry
customers building MicroSystems for embedded
applications e.g. autos, PC radio, PDAs,
telephones, set top boxes, videophones,
person monitoring, room and home monitoring
MicroSystems foundries
existing computer system companies with large
software investments
custom design companies that supply "core" IP
and take the systems responsibility
Microsystems companies supplying a standard
intra-chip architecture, complete with busses,
processors, peripherals, memories, and much
software!
Workshop
STANDARDS, STANDARDS, &WINS
STANDARDS!
IP companies that are fab-less and
chip-less that supplying designs
ECAD companies that synthesize logic and
provide design services (e.g. Cadence, Synopsis)
circuit wizards who design: fast or low power
memories (e.g. VLSI Libraries), analog for audio
(also a DSP application), radio and TV tuners,
radios, GPS, and especially
processors from RISC to DSP and multimedia
apps that require software and algorithm
understanding (e.g. protocols, MPEG)
old style proprietary interface companies e.g.
RAMbus with proprietary circuits and signaling
standards
WINS
Workshop
microelectormechanical systems
(MEMS)
components are the KEY!
WINS: What would an
industry look like?
WINS Workshop
The dimensions
Wireless-ness (signal cable free)
Powerlessness… how many batteries
Networks
Platform vs peripheral
Processing, memory, & storage
New transducers: speech, glasses
Sensors… and actuators
Standards, standards, standards
WINS Workshop
Wireless: we have plenty of bandwidth
… provided we use it right
Power vs distance trade-off
Short distance implies more
aggregate B/W
minutes or seconds/event … HDTV
WINS Workshop
Sensors, actuators/emitters,
sensor-actuators
Medical: P, T (body), blood gas, ECG
Mobile: location (GPS, compass),
ambient (P,T), acceleration,
Personal: A/V (and eyes) including IR,
body & head position (6 degrees),
Speech and glasses
Radar, sonar, beacons,
Spectrum, chemical, etc.
analyzers
WINS
Workshop
Platform or a peripheral?
Will this network be an entity unto
itself?
How does it couple into Cyberspace?
How is the network coupled to
computers?
WINS Workshop
"Standards" Types
industry i.e. de facto one company - IBM, Wintel
wanna be de facto - ABM
proprietary VendorIX - n-UNIX dialect platforms
trade-mark UNIX™ AT&T >Novell>??
PR standards - OSF + COSE =1170
OPEN, de jour, or faux = proprietary + ? standards
implicit cross-platform proprietary databases & apps
explicit cross-platform development environments
de jure gov't & intern’l (CCITT, IEEE, ITU, OSI, POSIX, )
government mandated - ADA, DES, OSI, VHDL
cross-industry forum - ATM, JPEG & MPEG
consortia - Xopen, OSF, OMG
company centered consortia - Java, Sparc, Poweropen
chaotic - Internet & MOSAIC WINS Workshop
Some apps
WINS Workshop
Why we need wireless
WINS Workshop
Evolving umbilicals … connecting
computer’s components & network
WINS Workshop
Storing all we’ve read, heard, & seen
Human data-types
read text, few pictures
/hr
200 K
/day (/4yr)
2 -10 M/G
/lifetime
60-300 G
speech text @120wpm
speech @1KBps
43 K
3.6 M
0.5 M/G
40 M/G
15 G
1.2 T
video-like 50Kb/s POTS
video 200Kb/s VHS-lite
22 M
90 M
.25 G/T
1 G/T
25 T
100 T
video 4.3Mb/s HDTV/DVD 1.8 G
20 G/T
1P
WINS Workshop
Memex
WINS Workshop
Guardian:
intercom,
records what
we read, see,
and hear…
protects us
from
ourselves
and others
WINS Workshop
Libretto,
.5mm
Not shown:
ECG;
PCS; Pilot
GPS;
Compass;
altimeter
Libretto PS,
Ricoh Camera;
Swiss Army
Knife
WINS Workshop
A device that would have
saved me from a heart attack
WINS Workshop
Where am I, exactly?
And will I live to enjoy next meal?
Photo of GPS
Watch and ekg
WINS Workshop
For openers…
audio, pix, T, P,
ECG, … 1 GB
WINS Workshop
Steve Mann
in
Cyberspace
WINS Workshop
CMU wearable computers
WINS Workshop
Moore’s law is less important
than MEMS
WINS Workshop
BAN, PAN or whatever for
people networks
Temperature monitoring with the flu
Saved me from a heart attack
Where is the person, exactly… a baby
sitter
Let’s interact… ala Barney
WINS Workshop
Medtronics
Implanted
Cardioplastic
stimulator
cardiorecorder
WINS Workshop
4 Experts Predict Bionics
Wired, February 1997
Hi-Fi Cochlear Implants 2005
Bionic Limbs 2013
Artificial Vision 2040
Bionic Person (unlikely)
WINS Workshop
Health:
Number
one
market
need…
must
be
open!
WINS Workshop
Your
husband
just died,
… here’s
his black
box
WINS Workshop
People
surrogates
WINS Workshop
Mobile
videophone
WINS Workshop
Honda
Robot
WINS Workshop
WINS Workshop