Transcript Climate Change Goals for the Metropolitan Washington Area Climate Change Steering Committee February 27, 2008 Joan Rohlfs, MWCOG/DEP.

Climate Change Goals for the
Metropolitan Washington Area
Climate Change Steering Committee
February 27, 2008
Joan Rohlfs, MWCOG/DEP
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Regional Goals & Ways to Get
There
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Propose Short-Term Goal (2012)
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Interim Goal for 2020: 20% Below 2005
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Low Hanging Fruit
Actions to Reach Goal
Adoption of Long Term Goals (2050)
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Policies to Reach Goal
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Projected Emissions and Proposed Reduction Targets
CO2e Emissions (million MT)
120
100
80
20%
2005 Base Year
60
BAU
Reduction Targets
70%
40
20
0
2005
2012
2020
2030
2040
2050
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Regional Short Term
Goal: 2012
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Long Term and Short Term Goals
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Long Term Goals Needed to Stabilize Climate
Spur investment in new technology
 Incentive for technological innovation
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Short Term Goals to Insure Immediate Progress
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Analyze strategies using existing technology

Nearer term year is easier to comprehend, anticipate
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Local Government Short Term
Goals
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Cool Counties agreement : Stop emissions
growth in 2010
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Mayors’ Agreement: Reduce 7% below 1990 by
2012
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Proposed Short Term Goal: 2012
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Proposed goal: Reduce 7% by 2012
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2005-2012 Emissions expected to increase by 7%
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Achievement of 7% reduction goal by 2012 would
return regional emissions to 2005 levels
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Low Hanging Fruit
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Individual Actions

Individuals contribute an estimated 7 tons CO2e
per year
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Residential energy use (37%)
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Appliance use, AC and heating
Transportation (63%)
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Personal car use, mass transit, air travel
Source: M. Vandenbergh, “Carbon Neutral Individual,” 2007
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Individual Contribution to GHG Emissions
Total use per household
Heating
Electricity.
Transp/Auto/Air
TOTAL
Metric
tons
CO2
1.58
0.87
4.13
6.58
%
24%
13%
63%
100%
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Individual GHG Emissions

Individuals contribute about 1/3 of CO2
emissions in the U.S.

Individuals can play an important role in
achieving short and long term targets

Some behaviors can be modified to generate
large emission reductions (“low hanging fruit”)
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Transportation
Reduction
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Buy more efficient car
Carpool w/ 2 others
Cut shopping trips in ½
Alter driving habits
Get frequent tune-ups
Maintain tire pressure
Subtotal:
20%
4%
2%
2%
2%
1%
31%
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Household Energy Reduction
Reduction
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Weatherize house
Install efficient HVAC
Reduce inside temp to 68o
Install efficient water
heater, reduce by 20o
Install efficient appliances
Change bulbs to CFL
SUBTOTAL:
10%
8%
4%
3%
2.5%
1.0%
28.5%
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Impact of 60% Reduction in Consumer Emissions
by 2012
Illustration of Impact of Consumer Reductions on Overall CO2
Emissions (2012)
/
CO2e Emissions (million MT)
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
50.00
All Else
40.00
Consumers
30.00
20.00
10.00
BAU
60% Reduction
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60% Reductions from Consumers
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Assumes 2012 BAU emissions
33 percent are consumers
Consumers can reduce by 60%
BAU is 82.3 million MT
Reductions would be 16.3 million MT
Equivalent to about 20 percent from overall
BAU.
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Midterm Goal: 2020
How to get there…
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Example: Transportation
Scenario for 2020
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Transportation Emissions
2005 to 2020
 Reduction Goal:
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Increase 24.6%
Reduce: 20% below 2005
Reduction Measures
CAFÉ Standards
 55 mpg by 2020
 VMT limit (?)
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Reduce 20.0%
Reduce 5.1%
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Measures to Reduce Regional GHG
Measure
%
Assumption
RGGI
2%
Apply to DC/MD/VA
RPS
3%
Biomass Fueled Power Plants
3%
10% RPS, applied to all electricity,
MD 8%
Green Buildings
2%
Energy Conservation
5%
Low Carbon Fuel
1%
Low Emission Vehicles
1%
Smart Growth/Reduced VMT
2%
Between 2% and 10%
CAFE/CAL LEV
4%
14% based on COG DTP
40 % buildings 10-30 % reduction,
Assume 15%, double counts with GB
Displace 0.8 to 1.6% by 2012
Above and beyond CAFÉ
Tree Canopy Conservation
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How to Get 20 % Reduction by 2020
Emission Reduction Opportunities (2005-2020)
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons)
100.00
90.00
80.00
CAFE/CAL LEV
20%
Reduction
Goal
70.00
60.00
Smart Growth/Reduced VMT
Low Emission Vehicles
Low Carbon Fuel
Energy Conservation
50.00
Green Buildings
40.00
Biomass Fueled Power Plants
RPS
30.00
RGGI
20.00
Uncontrolled
10.00
2005 Emissions
2020 Emissions/Reductions
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Long Term Goal:
2050
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IPCC Stabilization Scenario- 2050
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IPCC recommends reduction in global CO2
emissions in 2050 of 50-85 % (of 2000
emissions
Stabilization defined as CO2-eq concentration at
445-490 ppm,
Global mean temperature increase kept at 2.02.4o C
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Proposed Long Term Regional
GHG Reduction Goal
70% below 2005 by 2050

Based on science in IPCC Report and consistent
with the Warner Lieberman bill’s reduction goals
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Regional Greenhouse Emissions (2005)
CO2 Emissions by Sector for the Washington, DC-MD-VA Region
Others
4%
Transportation
30%
Fuel Use
25%
Transportation
Electricity
Fuel Use
Others
Electricity
41%
Source: MWCOG estimates.
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Estimated Washington Region CO2
Emissions, 2005-2030 (Business As Usual)
Draft CO2e Emissions Projections for the Washington, DC-MD-VA
Region
CO2e Emissions (million MT)
120.0
100.0
80.0
Other
Fuel Use
60.0
Electricity
Transportation
40.0
20.0
2005
2010
2020
2030
MWCOG Dept. of Environmental Programs, Sept. 2007
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List of Actual and Potential Government
Programs to Reduce GHG Emissions
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Federal Measures
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Federal
State Measures:
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Energy Bill of 2007 (CAFÉ standards, EEE)
Energy Efficient appliance standards
Establish price and trading for carbon emissions
Limit CO2 emissions from power plants, motor vehicles
Invest in Renewable energy technology (solar, wind,
hydro)
Support nuclear energy research
CAL LEV limits on mobile CO2 emissions
RGGI
Renewable Porfolio Standards (RE as % of Energy
Efficiency goals)
Require GHG emissions analysis as part of
Environmental Impact analyses
Local
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Purchase of alternative/renewable energy
Increase tree canopy
LED traffic lights
Incentives to build to LEED standards (green buildings)
Education and Outreach
State
Local
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Recommendations
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Adopt Regional Climate Change Goals:
2012
 2020
 2050
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Reduce GHG emissions by 7%
Reduce GHG emissions by 20% below 2005
Reduce GHG emission by 70% below 2005
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