Outline Context India’s Concerns Status of Knowledge Studies in Initial NATCOM Features and Limitations Approaches for Second NATCOM Approach to Mainstreaming V&A.
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Outline Context India’s Concerns Status of Knowledge Studies in Initial NATCOM Features and Limitations Approaches for Second NATCOM Approach to Mainstreaming V&A Context and Concerns NATCOM is a reporting obligation under Article 12 of the UNFCCC Current understanding indicates that adverse impacts of climate change will be on Water resources Agriculture - food security Natural ecosystems such as forests Coastal zones Human health and Consequent impact on economic development The Setting India is a vast country (3.28 million sq km) Human population of > 1000 million and livestock population of 475 million Diverse physiographic features - Himalayas, Coastal areas, northern plains, peninsular plateau and islands Occupies 2.4% of the worlds land area but support 16.2% of the worlds human population Dominating feature of climate is the Monsoon Endowed with varied soils, climate, biodiversity and ecological regions Under such diverse natural conditions, a billion people speaking different languages, following different religions, inhabiting in rural and urban areas live in harmony under a democratic system Agriculture is less than 25% of GDP and supports 650 million people Coal is the dominant source of energy (47% of total commercial energy) Status of Current Knowledge •Fragmentary •High degree of uncertainty with all impact projections •Uncertainties arise because of -Limited understanding of many critical processes in the climate system -Existence of multiple climatic and non-climatic stresses -regional scale variations and non-linearities -Future itself is not easy to predict with confidence Temperature and Precipitation Projections in 2050s Seasonal Temperature projections Spatial patterns of projected seasonal surface air temperature change (°C) by HadRM2 for 2050s relative to 1990s, under transient increase of greenhouse gas concentrations. (SRES A2 & B2) Seasonal Precipitation projections Spatial patterns of projected seasonal precipitation change (mm) by HadRM2 for 2050s relative to 1990s, under transient increase of greenhouse gas concentrations (SRES A2 & B2) Water resources: An Overview Change (%) in water balance for Control and GHG climate scenarios 30 Sabarmati Luni Mahi Pennar Krishna Tapi Narmada Ganga Cauvery -20 Brahmani 0 -10 Godavari 10 Mahanadi Change from current to future % 20 -30 -40 -50 -60 -70 River Basins Rainfall Runoff ET Acute physical water scarce conditions Constant water scarcities and shortage Seasonal / regular stressed conditions Rare water shortages Agriculture: An Overview General decrease in rice yield with increase in temperature Iso-yield line of wheat shift northwards and reduces in area Eastern regions projected to be most impacted by temperature increase & reduced radiation, resulting in fewer grain yield and shorter grain filling duration In Northern India, the potential reduction in yields will be offset by higher radiation, lessening the impacts of climate change Addition CO2 may benefit crops but will be nullified by increase in temperature 4.5t/ha (Control) 2.5t/ha (Control) 4.5/ha (Climate Change) 2.5/ha (Climate Change) Coastal Zones: An Overview Vulnerable areas along the Indian Coast due to SLR Hazard based analysis of impacts of cyclones on districts indicates Jagatsinghpur in Orissa to be the most vulnerable Forestry : An overview Present Biome Types Expected biome types under climate projections in 2050. Dry savannah Xeric Shrub land Xeric woodland Tropical Seasonal Forest Boreal Evergreen Tundra Forest types are likely to shift Xeric Shrubland and Xeric woodlands are likely to be the dominant species under enhanced temperature situations Health: An Overview (a) (b) WA D R A H R WA LD A H I N JH A H S R U P N A Transmission windows of malaria in different states of India (a) in 2000 and (b) in 2080 LHB A D A PU A N O S R A D E H K KE U O R LA T W Op en for m onths T W O p e n fo r m o nths 4-6 LA D N A M 4-6 7-9 NA E H C I IO N R A C R A B 10-12 N.A 7-9 IO N R A C R A B 10-12 N.A Malaria may penetrate elevations above 1800 meters and some coastal areas. 10% more states may offer climatic opportunities for malaria vector breeding throughout the year with respect to the year 2000 Vulnerability and Adaptation in NATCOM-1 Features / Limitations – NATCOM 1 Impacts and Vulnerability Studies • Impact assessment is made using climate change projections based on a single model outputs (RCM Had RM2) and single scenario • Uncertainty in projections of climate parameters at regional level • Limitations of models in assessing sectoral impacts at regional level (forests, crop production, water) Features / Limitations – NATCOM 1 Adaptation • Preliminary assessments made for different sectors; including assessment of current policies and programmes in relation to vulnerability • Further analysis needed to identify adaptation technologies, measures, institutions, financial needs Constrained by • Limited data availability • Limited time (<12 months) and resources Hence PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENTS Need for improving future V&A studies • Need for improved and reliable regional climate models and climate projections for impact assessment • Need for improved climate change impact or response models - Sectoral, Regional, & Integrated • Appropriate data generation for modeling • Assessment of impacts at regional level & identification of vulnerable regions, socio-economic systems • Development of adaptation strategies and a framework of Adaptation • Networking of institutions, capacity building, sustained research teams • Financial and institutional support needed Proposed Approach for the Second National Communication The scope of work in SNC contemplates Generation of climate change scenarios derived from the recent generation of regional or global climate models (HadRM3, PRECIS, and other AOGCMs) and mapping of climatically vulnerable regions. Development of socio economic scenarios at national level, analogous to the relevant SRES scenarios capturing India’s developmental path. Improvement of the impact assessments of climate change on water resources, agriculture, forestry, natural ecosystems, coastal zones, human health, energy and infrastructure carried out in INC. Contd. Approaches in Second National Communication Development of integrated vulnerability frameworks and adaptation options (and hence adaptation frameworks) to establish linkages between socio economic scenarios and water resources and agriculture productivity and hence food security; human health associated with climate change and the changing profile of extreme events; vulnerabilities due to the impacts on forests and other natural ecosystem products; sea level rise and vulnerabilities of a coastal zone an assessment of the vulnerabilities of energy systems and infrastructure Integrated Vulnerability Assessment In order to develop the integrated frameworks, case studies will be carried out in the identified hotspots to Assess the associated physical and socio-economic vulnerabilities; Aanalyse the current coping mechanisms operational at the local level (indigenous strategies / policies and programmes / institutional mechanisms /technological options and risk sharing measures) to combat climate variability; Identify the incremental measures required to cope with the adverse impacts of climate change and Develop adaptation frameworks for these case studies) that will provide inputs for the development of national framework for adaptation, and hence help devise adaptation strategies through linkages to the Adaptation Learning Mechanism Integrated Vulnerability Assessment – A Conceptual Framework Water & Climate Livelihood Socio-Economic Scenarios Health Food security Agriculture Climate Change & Variability Water Natural Ecosystems Forests Livelihood Coastal Zones Infrastructure Livelihood Livelihood Key Tasks for Addressing Vulnerability and Adaptation Needs Geographic Hierarchy Strategies Local National Regional/ Global Capacity Building Monitoring, observation Awareness/assessment at state/ district/ community levels Scientific assessment, Participation in global/ measurement, regional modeling and models, national assessments research agenda Knowledge/ Information Locale specific databases, scenarios and assessment, local monitoring networks Research networks, National databases (e.g. NATCOM), scientific and policy models, national scenarios, technology inventory Interface with IPCC assessments, interfacing with regional/global databases, scenarios and assessments, technology inventory database Continued… Key tasks for addressing vulnerability and adaptation needs Geographic Hierarchy Strategies Local National Regional/ Global Institutions/ Partnerships Community initiatives, Early warning networks Stakeholders networks, public/ private programs FCCC processes, trans-boundary impacts assessment Policy/ Instruments Local specific adaptation plans, community based adaptation programs Science-policy Adaptation funds, linkage, economic trans-boundary instruments (e.g. regulations insurance, R&D funds), integration with national development/ planning process Continued… Key tasks for addressing vulnerability and adaptation needs Geographic Hierarchy Strategies Technology Local National Locale specific Targeted R&D, technology adaptation Technology transfer protocols, demonstration/ pilot projects Regional/ Global Scientific exchange, technology transfer Approach to Mainstreaming V&A in NATCOM A broad based Participatory approach involving concerned stakeholders through • Focused thematic training workshops for enhancing the assessment capacities of researchers; • Inter-sectoral workshops to facilitate integration of the assessments; • Conduct workshops to sensitise the policymakers, media, and NGOs about the outputs of the assessments; • Disseminate results amongst the general public using web-based and print media • Establish synergies with other ongoing V&A projects Natcom Web site NATCOM Web site A website has been created and it houses information on all the activities carried out under the aegis of NATCOM including information on NATCOM network,events organized, presentations, publications and related web links and now the national communication www.natcomindia.org BROCHURES BOOKS