Transcript “The Supply Chain Complexity Triangle: Uncertainty Generation in the Supply Chain”, International Journal of Physical Distribution and Logistics Management, MCB University Press, Vol.

“The Supply Chain Complexity Triangle: Uncertainty Generation
in the Supply Chain”, International Journal of Physical
Distribution and Logistics Management, MCB University Press,
Vol 28, No.8, pp 599-616, 1998
Amplification
Supply Chain
Uncertainty
Deterministic
chaos
Figure 1 - The Supply Chain Complexity Triangle
Parallel
Interactions
Figure 2 - Examples of Supply Chain Structures Investigated.
Five-Channel
supply chain
One-Channel
supply chain
Customer
1
Customer
1
Customer
2
Customer
3
Customer
4
Customer
5
Warehouse
1
Warehouse
1
Warehouse
3
Warehouse
4
Warehouse
5
Warehouse
6
Warehouse
2
Warehouse
2
Supplier
Supplier
Parallel
Interactions
Customer
Warehouse
Serial
Interactions
Customer
Customer
Customer
Warehouse
Warehouse
Warehouse
Assembler
1st tier supplier
1st tier supplier
1st tier supplier
1st tier supplier
2nd tier supplier
2nd tier supplier
2nd tier supplier
2nd tier supplier
Figure 3 - Serial and Parallel interactions in a supply network
Figure 4 - The Forrester Flywheel Effect (Adapted from Houlihan, 1987)
Figure 5 - Graph of the iteration of equation for K = 1.76. Stable behaviour.(Generated with Microsoft Excel)
1
X t  KX t21  1
K = 1.76, Starting condition = 0.54321
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1
-1.2
9
17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89 97 105 113 121 129 137 145 153 161 169 177 185 193 201 209 217 225 233 241 249
Figure 6 - Graph of the iteration of equation for K = 2. Chaotic Behaviour. (Generated with Microsoft Excel)
1.5
X t  KX t21  1
K = 2, Starting condition = 0.54321
1
0.5
0
1
-0.5
-1
-1.5
9
17 25 33 41
49 57 65 73 81 89 97 105 113 121 129 137 145 153 161 169 177 185 193 201 209 217 225 233 241 249