Transcript I Hate Congress! Predicting Voter Turnout and Electoral Outcomes in the 2014 Midterm Elections and the Final Two Years of the Obama Presidency Artemus.

I Hate Congress!
Predicting Voter Turnout and Electoral Outcomes in the
2014 Midterm Elections and the Final Two Years of the
Obama Presidency
Artemus Ward
Department of Political Science
Northern Illinois University
[email protected]
http://www.niu.edu/polisci/faculty/profiles/ward/
Batavia Public Library
Batavia, IL October 31, 2014
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The cost of the 2014 midterm elections will be nearly $4 billion – the most expensive midterm
election in history.
The vast majority of that sum -- $2.7 billion -- will be spent by candidates and parties.
(Republicans are expected to spend slightly more -- $1.92 billion to $1.76 billion.)
But an additional $900 million will come from outside groups (Super PACs and 527s), a sum that
rivals the $1.2 billion those organizations spent in the 2012 presidential cycle.
An additional $100 million is being spent by 501 (c) (4) groups –most of them right-wing—like
the Koch brothers-aligned American for Prosperity.
Does more money equal greater turnout?
Voter Turnout: % of Voting-Age Population
• In 1972, the 26th Amendment granted voting rights to those age 18 and older.
Turnout plummeted.
Historical Trends
• If we look at the presidencies of the 6 other two-term
presidents (Bush II, Clinton, Reagan, Eisenhower, Roosevelt,
Wilson) and their congresses to predict what President
Obama’s fourth Congress may look like, we find that on
average, the president’s party loses seats in both the Senate
and the House in midterm election.
• In the 2010 midterm election, the Democrats lost 63 House
seats. They will not lose that many this time because there are
simply less seats to lose.
• The Senate may see a larger change because of the “six-year
itch” -- Senators who were riding on Obama’s coattails in the
2008 election are now going up for reelection on their own and
are therefore more vulnerable.
• On average, the president’s party loses 7 Senate seats in the
second midterm election.
The Senate
• Democrats currently hold a 53-45 majority. But 2
independents caucus with the Democrats
effectively making their majority 55-45.
• The GOP needs to gain 6 seats to secure a
majority.
• What are their chances?
Senate Forecast
• According to
fivethirtyeight.com,
the GOP has a strong
chance (68.5%) of
winning a majority in
the Senate.
• The most likely
outcome is a 52-48
GOP majority with
53-47 as the next
most likely.
• This forecast is based
on state-level public
opinion polls,
weighted for their
accuracy in the past.
The Changing Forecast
• Fivethirtyeight.com’s forecast shows how the
Democrats were gaining ground through midSeptember but have slipped since then. Why has
this happened?
• There are at least 10 Senate races where the outcome is far from certain. There
were 10 races rated as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report in their final ratings
before the 2012 election, but only 7 such races in 2010 and 6 in 2008.
Contested Senate Races: Probabilities
• Of the 10 Senate races that could go either way, nearly all are
leaning Republican. And 7 of these seats are currently held by
Democrats.
• The GOP is expected to gain seats in West Virginia, South Dakota, and Montana.
Kansas (R)
• Both sides think this one
remains very close.
• Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.) was
looking like he might have some
momentum there for a while,
but a couple automated
polls have shown independent
Greg Orman up by a small
margin in recent days.
• It doesn't look like anybody will
pull away here.
Georgia (R)
• Democrat Michelle Nunn clearly has
the momentum -- a new CNN poll
last Friday morning has her up three
points -- in the wake of Republican
David Perdue's outsourcing
problems, but it's probably likely
now that we're headed for a Jan. 6
runoff.
• Historically, runoffs are very unkind
to Democrats. But it's also looking
increasingly possible that Nunn
could win outright on Election Day,
with a majority of the overall vote.
Alaska (D)
• Republican Dan Sullivan has led Sen.
Mark Begich (D) by two to six points
in every public poll out this fall.
• Democrats are keeping the faith
because of their well-oiled ground
game and early vote operation.
• If the election ends up being
really close, we may not know the
outcome until well after Nov. 4
because of the lengthy period of
time to tally absentee ballots.
Iowa (D)
• Republican state Sen. Joni
Ernst's decision to snub the Des
Moines Register editorial board got
lots of attention -- both in Iowa and
nationally. You simply can't cancel
on the state's biggest paper without
getting heat.
• Recent polling shows Ernst and Rep.
Bruce Braley (D) at or within the
margin of error of one another.
Every little thing counts at this
point.
North Carolina (D)
• Sen. Kay Hagan (D) got a boost last
week from
the environmental community when
the League of Conservation Voters
announced a $4.2 million effort on her
behalf.
• If Hagan pulls this one out, it will be
thanks to the barrage of attack ads the
senator and her allies have launched.
• Tillis has faced a whopping $26
million in negative ads -- more than
any Senate candidate and about
twice as much incoming as Hagan has
faced (though that excludes plenty
of "issue ads" that were run against
Hagan over the summer).
Colorado (D)
• All of the movement here is in Rep.
Cory Gardner's (R) direction.
• Gardner has led Sen. Mark Udall (D)
in the last eight polls and, according
to the Real Clear Politics polling
average, Gardner is up by four
points.
• If Udall does lose -- Democrats insist
their ground operation and the new
vote-by-mail system are their aces
in the hole -- expect his relentless
focus on reproductive rights to be
blamed.
Louisiana (D)
• This race is likely headed for
a runoff. The runoff would
be held Dec. 6 -- a month
before Georgia's.
• Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.)
would still be an underdog
against Rep. Bill Cassidy (RBaton Rouge), but she has
actually won runoffs -- both
that she's faced, in fact.
New Hampshire (Democratic-controlled)
• Former senator Scott Brown (RMass.) and Sen. Jeanne Shaheen
(D) debated twice last week, but
there were no big momentumshifting moments.
• Polls show Shaheen is popular and
has a very small lead, inside the
margin of error.
• This race is making Democrats more
nervous than it was a couple of
months ago, but Shaheen has at
least avoided stumbles.
Kentucky (Republican-controlled)
• Two things are true about this race.
• 1) Mitch McConnell has not been able
to pull away from Democrat Alison
Lundergan Grimes despite massive
spending.
• 2) This is Kentucky in a midterm
election that looks bad for Democrats
nationally.
• McConnell is a slight favorite but both
sides are engaged in this race and
spending (after the DSCC momentarily
stopped running ads), which suggests
the outcome isn't quite decided.
Arkansas (D)
• Rep. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) has
led by between three and
eight points in the last five
polls, and Sen. Mark Pryor's
(D-Ark.) days are looking
increasingly numbered.
• Cotton overcame some early
rumblings that he wasn't the
great candidate that he was
billed as to run a solid
campaign.
• Republicans are counting on
this one, at this point.
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Over time, there have been increasing numbers of vulnerable Democratic seats in the House.
The GOP should maintain its current (231-201) majority if not increase it slightly.
Possible GOP
Congressional Agenda
• House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy has been discussing his plans for the
next Congress.
• McCarthy seems willing to pass relatively small bills on issues ranging
from energy to health care to taxes. Energy policy will be a priority, in
addition to repealing the medical device tax and the independent
payment board for Medicare — bills that Democrats have mostly ignored
over the past few years. Highway spending will likely come up, McCarthy
said, and it could be funded by new drilling on public lands.
• He sees these bills as a way to draw constant contrasts with President
Barack Obama and to split Democrats. Maybe Obama will sign some bills
into law, McCarthy says. If he doesn’t, it will set up a clean discussion for
the 2016 presidential election.
• Also, McCarthy would like to use the lame-duck session before the new
Congress is sworn in to pass a long-term government-funding bill, so
Washington can begin focusing on big-picture legislating, instead of just
trying to keep government’s doors open. He also is aiming to renew a
host of lapsed business-focused tax provisions and renew the Terrorism
Risk Insurance Act — two items with bipartisan support.
The Final Two Years of the Obama
Presidency: What to Expect
• Although there is often a lot of conflict in a
president’s fourth Congress, legislation still gets
passed.
• Typically the fourth Congress doesn’t pass a
president’s domestic programs but does a lot of
crisis legislation, presidential veto overrides, and
trade legislation among other things.
• Thus, Obama’s fourth Congress may not pass a lot
of domestic legislation but will probably pass a lot
of crisis management and foreign policy legislation.