Transcript CHRISTOPHER DYE Birth control, death control and the demographic transition We're getting older How did it happen? What are the consequences? What should we do? CHRISTOPHER DYE Birth.

CHRISTOPHER DYE
Birth control, death control
and the demographic transition
We're getting older
How did it happen?
What are the
consequences?
What should we do?
CHRISTOPHER DYE
Birth control, death control
and the demographic transition
Not true: More people are
alive today than have ever
died
"Behind every human being now
living stand thirty ghosts"
2001: A Space Odyssey, Arthur C. Clarke and
Stanley Kubrick
True: Two thirds of all
people who have made it
to 65 in the history of
mankind are alive today
RAY KURZWEIL
Who knows?
(but beware the prophets
of immortality)
"I think the first person
to live to 1000 might be
60 already"
Aubrey de Grey
AUBREY DE GREY
The demographic
transition
Europe since 1500
Birth or death rate per 1000 per yr
Demographic transition
60
pre-modern
mature
industrial
industrializing
post
industrial
50
40
Births
Population
30
20
Deaths
10
0
0
20
40
60
80
Years
100
120
140
Births and deaths in England
since 1540
Birth or death rate per 1000
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
Source: Wrigley & Schofield 1981
10
1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Industrial (r)evolution, health (r)evolution
Life expectancy at birth (years)
Life expectancy in England 1300-2000
80
Wrigley & Schofield
70
Human Mortality Database
Clark
60
50
40
30
20
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
Births and deaths in England
since 1540
Birth or death rate per 1000
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
Source: Wrigley & Schofield 1981
10
1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Prenancy deaths during marriage (%)
Death mother in pregnancy (%)
Risk of death in pregnancy falling
by 1700 in England
1.5
1
0.5
0
1600 1650 1700 1750 1800
10
8
6
4
2
0
1600 1650 1700 1750 1800
Age of first marriage (yr)
Safe pregnancy encouraged
earlier marriage in England?
29
Men
Women
28
27
26
25
24
Source: Clark 2005
23
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1850
Population of England grew rapidly
by fewer deaths and more births
25
20
15
1
10
5
0
1500
1600
1700
1800
0
1900
Population (millions)
Net reproductive rate
2
Births and deaths in England
since 1540
Birth or death rate per 1000
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
Source: Wrigley & Schofield 1981
10
1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
1840
95-99
85-89
75-79
65-69
55-59
45-49
35-39
25-29
15-19
5-9
0
-2
-1
0
Population (millions)
1
2
1850
95-99
85-89
75-79
65-69
55-59
45-49
35-39
25-29
15-19
5-9
0
-2
-1
0
Population (millions)
1
2
1860
95-99
85-89
75-79
65-69
55-59
45-49
35-39
25-29
15-19
5-9
0
-2
-1
0
Population (millions)
1
2
1870
95-99
85-89
75-79
65-69
55-59
45-49
35-39
25-29
15-19
5-9
0
-2
-1
0
Population (millions)
1
2
1880
95-99
85-89
75-79
65-69
55-59
45-49
35-39
25-29
15-19
5-9
0
-2
-1
0
Population (millions)
1
2
1890
95-99
85-89
75-79
65-69
55-59
45-49
35-39
25-29
15-19
5-9
0
-2
-1
0
Population (millions)
1
2
1900
95-99
85-89
75-79
65-69
55-59
45-49
35-39
25-29
15-19
5-9
0
-2
-1
0
Population (millions)
1
2
1910
95-99
85-89
75-79
65-69
55-59
45-49
35-39
25-29
15-19
5-9
0
-2
-1
0
Population (millions)
1
2
1920
95-99
85-89
75-79
65-69
55-59
45-49
35-39
25-29
15-19
5-9
0
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
Population (millions)
1
1.5
2
1930
95-99
85-89
75-79
65-69
55-59
45-49
35-39
25-29
15-19
5-9
0
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
Population (millions)
1
1.5
2
1940
95-99
85-89
75-79
65-69
55-59
45-49
35-39
25-29
15-19
5-9
0
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
Population (millions)
1
1.5
2
1950
95-99
85-89
75-79
65-69
55-59
45-49
35-39
25-29
15-19
5-9
0
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
Population (millions)
1
1.5
2
1960
95-99
85-89
75-79
65-69
55-59
45-49
35-39
25-29
15-19
5-9
0
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
Population (millions)
1
1.5
2
1970
95-99
85-89
75-79
65-69
55-59
45-49
35-39
25-29
15-19
5-9
0
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
Population (millions)
1
1.5
2
1980
95-99
85-89
75-79
65-69
55-59
45-49
35-39
25-29
15-19
5-9
0
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
Population (millions)
1
1.5
2
1990
95-99
85-89
75-79
65-69
55-59
45-49
35-39
25-29
15-19
5-9
0
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
Population (millions)
1
1.5
2
2000
95-99
85-89
75-79
65-69
55-59
45-49
35-39
25-29
15-19
5-9
0
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
Population (millions)
1
1.5
2
2004
95-99
85-89
75-79
65-69
55-59
45-49
35-39
25-29
15-19
5-9
0
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
Population (millions)
1
1.5
2
The coming face of Germany
Population "pyramids" in 1910, 2005, and 2025
Few men – war dead
Fall births
Post WW2 baby boom
Long-term fertility decline
JW Vaupel, Science (2006)
News - World's oldest woman dies at 115
She was officially proclaimed the world's oldest woman, and the second oldest
person, after the death of American Elizabeth Bolden in December.
19 Jan 2007
News - 'Oldest' woman dies at age of 111
She shared her birthday with Britain's oldest man, Henry Allingham, who turned 110
in June. The oldest person in the world is 116-year-old Elizabeth Bolden, of
Memphis, Tennessee.
29 Nov 2006
News - World's oldest woman dies at 116
Capovilla's likely successor as oldest woman is an American, Elizabeth Bolden of
Memphis, Tennessee, said Mr Young.
28 Aug 2006
News - UK's oldest woman dies aged 111
She became the country's oldest person on 1 March this year when 112-year-old
Judy Ingamells died.
2 Aug 2006
News - Birthday 111 for 'oldest' woman
A woman believed to be Scotland's oldest person reaches her 111th birthday in
Aberdeen.. 6 Jun 2006
Number of men & women
Supercentenarians alive in Jan 2007
77 women + 7 men
40
Women
Men
30
20
10
0
110
111
112
113
114
115
Age in January 2007
Validated Living Supercentenarians: www.grg.org/Adams/E.HTM
Jane Fonda
My Life So Far
(aged 69)
James McNeill
Whistler
Arrangement in Grey
and Black: Portrait of the
Artist's mother 1871
(aged 67)
Pyramids and totem poles
Developing countries
emerging from the premodern era
Pyramids and….
Young Population in Developing Countries Has Great Potential for Growth
Population by age and sex, less developed countries, 2005
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (2005).
…Totem poles
Developed Countries Have Fewer Young and More Elderly People
Population by age and sex, more developed countries, 2005
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (2005).
Demographic Transition
in Sweden and Mexico
60
Births/Deaths per 1,000
Mexico Birth Rate
50
40
Sweden Birth Rate
30
20
Sweden Death Rate
10
0
Mexico Death Rate
1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
Which means that….
Country
Growth
Doubling time
1.3%/year
50 years
3.5%/year
20 years
World population 1500
World population 2000
Births 2000
Teenage mothers 2000
The demographic
division and
the future of world
population
Nine billion people by 2050?
Population (billions)
12
10
World population
6 billion by 2000
8
6
Less developed
less developed countries
4
2
More developed
more developed
countries
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Populations which are either…
Small but elderly….
…or youthful but large
Developing countries:
the argument for "family planning"
= reducing fertility
• Better health and
release from poverty
• Rights for women
(control of fertility)
• Protected environment
Pakistan 2005 and 2050
Today’s Youth, Tomorrow’s Labour Force
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, CD-ROM Edition, Extended Dataset (2005).
"Demographic dividends" and "economic miracles"
From health to wealth?
Share population of working age
0.75
education
economics
governance
public health
family planning
0.7
East Asia
0.65
One third economic
growth from
"demographic gift"
0.6
0.55
Sub-Saharan Africa
0.5
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Africa awaits the economic miracle
60
% living on <$1 per day
1990
2008
2015
50
40
30
20
10
0
East Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
South Africa 2020
Without AIDS: youth bulge
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, CD-ROM Edition, Extended Dataset (2005)
South Africa 2020
With AIDS: Loss of the middle-aged
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, CD-ROM Edition, Extended Dataset (2005)
Carl Djerassi & Co 1950s
giving women control of fertility
Fertility around the world
Total fertility rate
Average number
of children born
to each woman
in 2005
9
35
8
30
25
7
20
6
15
5
10
4
3
1975
Fertility
Contraceptives
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
5
0
2005
Contraceptive use (%)
Births per woman
Kenya
contraceptives reduce fertility
Population growth slows in Kenya
but will there still be too many people?
Millions of women
20
15
10
5
0
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Impending disaster in Niger?
SUMMER 2004
Locust infestation resulting in widespread crop and pasture losses
Poor rainy season with rainfall ending earlier than usual
Cereal and fodder harvest insufficient
JANUARY 2005
Higher than average incidence of severe and moderate malnutrition
MARCH 2005
Rapid rise in cereal prices combined with a drop in livestock prices
JULY 2005
Niger government’s food security measures, taken in collaboration with
numerous donors, are insufficient to tackle the growing crisis
Tuareg family have to sell half their cattle to buy enough feed for the
other half
Impending disaster in Niger?
Population 2006
Population 2050
Fertility rate
Desired children
Contraceptive use
Life expectancy
Grain production
Children stunted
14m
82m
7.5
8.2
4.6%
43yr
85%
40%
Fertililty rates in rich countries too low to
maintain populations
2.7
Total fertility rate
2.5
2.3
EU
replacement level
OECD
2.1
Nordic
1.9
USA
Japan
1.7
1.5
1.3
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Germany: A Century after World War II
If Current Fertility and Immigration Rates Continue to 2050…
Source: Population Reference Bureau projections.
Industrial world:
the argument for increasing fertility
David Reher
"A fertility rate of 1.7 is a
disaster if you look a
couple of generations
down the line”
“Urban areas in…
Europe…filled with empty
buildings and crumbling
infrastructure…"
The "Population Bomb" defused?
Paul Ehrlich
"We took a first cut at…
what is an optimal
human population, and
came up with… 2 billion"
"Population shrinkage is
a hugely positive trend"
Work longer, save more
How to redistribute work in an aging population?
Average hours to be worked per week in Germany
16.3 hr/person
2025 older
people
16.3 hr/person 2005
JW Vaupel, Science 312, 1911 -1913 (2006)
16.3 hr/person
2025 young &
old people
25
Human population will stabilize in
21st century?
higher fertility - higher life expectancy
Billions of people
20
15
10
5
lower fertility - lower life expectancy
0
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
2120
2140
How many dependents in 2050?
0.7
Fraction of population
0.6
15-59 years
0.5
About half the
population in 2150 retirement age?
0.4
60+ years
0.3
0.2
0-14 years
0.1
0
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
2120
2140
Survival of hunter-gatherers and Japanese
100
Percent surviving
Stationary population
80
Everyone lives to be 100
Average age is 50
60
40
Couple can still only have
2 children
20
Small fraction of life is
family life as we know it
0
0
20
40
60
Age (years)
80
100
''I dream, I think, I go over my life,
I never get bored''
Jeanne Calment
Born
Meets van Gogh
Daughter dies
Husband dies
Grandson dies
Quits smoking
Dies age 122
1875
1889
1934
1946
1963
1994
1997
Sir John Crofton, 1912Philip d'Arcy Hart, 1900-2006
CROFTON
D'ARCY HART
An opinionated summary
The biggest threat we face is:
An over-populated, over-heated, degraded
planet, with millions living in poverty
The demographic solution:
Cut fertility
Stabilize or reduce population
Get used to living long
But don't count on immortality