Transcript Towards an adaptive observation network: monitoring the observations impact in ECMWF forecast Carla Cardinali WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008 slide 1 ECMWF.

Towards an adaptive observation
network: monitoring the observations
impact in ECMWF forecast
Carla Cardinali
WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008
slide 1
ECMWF
Outline
Forecast error sensitivity to the observation
Sensitivity Gradient
Observation Impact Measure
Contribution to the forecast error of the operational
assimilated observation in the ECMWF system
Summer and Winter OSE forecast error based
(Eumetsat-Graeme Kelly)
WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008
slide 2
ECMWF
Forecast sensitivity to observation: Equations
J x a J

y y x a
xa = xb + K(y - Hxb )
J is a measure of the forecast error
Forecast error sensitivity
to the analysis
Analysis sensitivity to observation


J
, x a 
x a
J
x a
x a
= KT
y
J
J
J
, x a  xb 
, K (y - Hxb )  K T
, (y - Hxb ) 
x a
x a
x a

J
, y 
y
WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008
J
 J  (y  Hxb )
y
slide 3
ECMWF
J
x a
Sensitivity Gradient
150°W
120°W
90°W
60°W
30°W
0°
30°E
60°E
90°E
120°E
150°E
0.2E+07
0.1E+07
60°N
60°N 0.8E+06
J
T39
0.5E+06
30°N 0.2E+06
30°N
0.8E+05
Summer
0.4E+05
0°
0°
-.4E+05
-.8E+05
30°S
30°S -.2E+06
-.5E+06
60°S -.8E+06
60°S
-.1E+07
Dry Energy norm
-.2E+07
150°W
120°W
150°W
120°W
90°W
90°W
60°W
60°W
30°W
30°W
0°
0°
30°E
30°E
60°E
90°E
60°E
90°E
120°E
150°E
120°E
150°E
0.2E+07
0.1E+07
60°N
60°N 0.8E+06
150°W
120°W
90°W
60°W
0.5E+06
30°W
30°N 0.2E+06
30°N
Winter
0°
30°E
60°E
90°E
120°E
150°E
0.2E+06
0.1E+06
0.8E+05
60°N
60°N 0.8E+05
+
0.4E+05
0°
0.5E+05
0°
-.4E+05
30°N
30°N 0.3E+05
0.1E+05
-.8E+05
30°S
0.8E+04
30°S -.2E+06
0°
0°
-.8E+04
-
-.5E+06
30°S
60°S
-.1E+05
30°S -.3E+05
60°S -.8E+06
-.5E+05
-.1E+07
60°S -.8E+05
60°S
-.2E+07
-.1E+06
150°W
120°W
90°W
60°W
30°W
0°
30°E
60°E
90°E
120°E
150°W
WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008
150°E
120°W
90°W
60°W
30°W
slide 4
0°
30°E
ECMWF
60°E
90°E
120°E
150°E
-.2E+06
Monitoring ECMWF System
OZ ON E
GOES
M ET EOSA T
A M SUB
SSM I-T C WV
SSM I
A IR S
A M SUA
15 June-15 July
Summer 2006
H IR S
SC A T
M OD IS-WV
M OD IS-IR
M ET EOSA T -WV
M ET EOSA T -VIS
M ET EOSA T -IR
GOES-WV
GOES-VIS
GOES-IR
24h OSE FcE
Cycle 31R2
T511T95T159
L60
P ILOT
T EM P
A IR EP
D R IB U
SYN OP
-45000
-40000
-35000
-30000
-25000
-20000
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
OZONE
GOES
METEOSAT
AMSUB
MHS
SSMI-TCWV
SSMI
GPS RO
AIRS
AMSUA
HIRS
SCAT
MODIS-WV
MODIS-IR
GSM-WV
GSM-VIS
GSM-IR
METEOSAT-WV
METEOSAT-VIS
METEOSAT-IR
GOES-WV
GOES-VIS
GOES-IR
PILOT
TEMP
AIREP
DRIBU
SYNOP
Forecast Error Contribution (J/kg)
5 January-12 February
Winter 2007
-45000
-40000
-35000
-30000
-25000
-20000
-15000
-10000
-5000
Forecast Error Contribution (J/kg)
WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008
5000
slide 5
0
5000
ECMWF
Monitoring ECMWF System: Summer 2006
OZ ONE
GOES
M ET EOSAT
AM SUB
SSM I-T CWV
SSM I
AIRS
AM SUA
HIRS
SCAT
M ODIS-WV
M ODIS-IR
M ET EOSAT -WV
M ET EOSAT -VIS
M ET EOSAT -IR
GOES-WV
GOES-VIS
GOES-IR
P ILOT
T EM P
AIREP
DRIBU
SYNOP
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
Forecast Error Contribution (J/kg)
WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008
slide 6
ECMWF
Pilot and Wind Profilers FcE contribution Summer 2006
Pilot
Wind Profiler NA
30>
50-30
70-50
u
v
100-70
100-70
200-100
300-200
400-300
500-400
u
v
200-100
300-200
400-300
700-500
850-700
>850
500-400
700-500
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008
800
0
100
200
300
slide 7
400
500
600
700
800
ECMWF
Wind Profilers North America Summer 2006
Control
exp:eusg
/DCDA 2006061512-2006071512(12)
AMprofiler-Uwind areaNSEW= 46/ 29/ -85/-109
used U
1.6
2.4
3.2
4
-1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0
5.0
10
20
30
50
70
100
150
200
250
300
400
500
700
850
1000
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
1
Mean
CAPE
Thursday 15 June 2006 00UTC ECMWF background
Forecast t+18 VT: Thursday
15 June
2006 18UTC Surface: **Convective available potential energy
ECMWF
Analysis
VT:Thursday
15Total
June 2006
Surface:
**Total column water
exp:eusg
/DCDA
2006061512-2006071512(12)
departure
o-b
Mean
No
ref.date
Types
: 95(28)
: TCWV
28 00UTC
Plotted
2007-09-05
Forecast
t+18at
VT:
Thursday 17:18
15 June 2006 18UTC Surface: **Convective available potential energy
AMprofiler-Vwind areaNSEW= 46/ 29/ -85/-109
analysis departure o-a
H
L
L
used
V
H
L
ursday 15130°W
June 2006
00UTC
ECMWF
120°W
110°W
100°W
130° W
0.8
BIAS
0
0
0
0
0
692
21718
25426
20050
25025
75634
106233
133552
76239
0
0
Pressure (hPa)
0
analysis departure o-a
nobsexp
STD.DEV
5.0
10
20
30
50
70
100
150
200
250
300
400
500
700
850
1000
background departure o-b
120° W
90°W
80°W
110° W
70°W
60°W
130°W
50°W
100° W
90° W
120°W
80° W
110°W
100°W
90°W
70° W
61.37
80°W
60° W
70°W
60°W
50°W
50° W
899.1
8 9 9 .1
61.37
65°N
65°N
H
60
H
STD.DEV
60°N
55
L
40
20
45°N
35
H
40°N
30
L
H
2535°N
40
20
30°N
20
15
L
40
25°N
10
30
5 20°N
120° W
20
L
30
L
30
H
L
0.8
1.6
2.4
3.2
4
H
0
0
0
45
0
50°N
50°N
0
40 692
45°N
45°N
21718
35 H
25426
40°N
40°N
20050
30
25025
35°N
35°N
75634
25
106233
30°N
30°N
133552
20
76239
25°N
25°N
0
15
0
55°N
55°N
800
55
50
20°N
20°N
10
15°N
15°N
5
L
50
100°
W
40
90° W
L
L
H
400
L
-1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2
0
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
H
H
5.0
10
20
30
50
70
100
150
200
250
300
400
500
700
850
1000
H
exp:eusg /DCDA 2006061512-2006071512(12)
AMprofiler-windspeed areaNSEW= 46/ 29/ -85/-109
used wind data
110° W
800
BIAS
120°W
110°W
100°W
90°W
80°W
5.0
10
20
30
50
70°W
60°W
STD.DEV
Pa)
WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008
50°W
L
80° W
130°W
70° W
nobsexp
0
0
0
0
0
120°W
60°N
700
55° N
55°N
110°W
700
H
H
50° N
50°N
6600
00
L
L
45° N
45°N
5500
00
L
40° N
40°N
400
H
35° N
400
35°N
300
30° N
30°N
300
25° N
H
25°N
400
200
200
20° N
H
1
20°N
L
100
100
L
15°N
0
background departure o-b
60° W
50° W
L
2.853
130°W
60° N
15° N
200
L
15°N
130° W
20
65°N
65° N
40
0
200
50
2.853
60°N
60°N
60
nobsexp
0
50°N
Pressure (hPa)
H
45
10
40
5.0
10
20 H
30
50
70
100
150
200
H
250
300
400
500
700
850
1000
H
0
20
L
5055°N
L
40
65°N
20
100°W
90°W
80°W
70°W
0
60°W
50°W
analysis departure o-a
BIAS OF SPEED
slide 8
5.0
10
20
30
50
ECMWF
Atmospheric Motion Vector FcE ContributionSummer 2006
MODIS784-WVCL
MODIS784-WVMW
MODIS784-IR
MODIS783-WVCL
MODIS783-WVMW
MODIS783-IR
METEOSAT55-WVCL2
METEOSAT55-WVCL1
METEOSAT55-VIS2
METEOSAT55-IR3
METEOSAT52-WVCL
METEOSAT52-VIS
METEOSAT52-IR
GOES256-WVCL3
GOES256-VIS1
GOES256-IR1
GOES254-WVCL3
GOES254-VIS1
GOES254-IR1
-500
0
WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008
500
1000
1500
slide 9
2000
ECMWF
MO783-W
MO784-IR
MO784-WM
MO784-W
AMV FcE Contribution Summer 2006
200-100
u
300-200
400-300
500-400
700-500
850-700
>850
G254-IR
G256-W
-400
-200
M55-V
MO783-W2
G254-V
M52-IR
0
M55-W1
MO784-IR
G254-W
M52-V
200
M55-W2
MO784-W1
G256-IR
G256-V
M52-W
M55-IR
400
600
800
MO783-IR
MO783-W1
MO784-W2
200-100
v
300-200
400-300
500-400
G254-IR
G254-V
G254-W
G256-IR
G256-V
G256-W
M52-IR
M52-V
M52-W
M55-IR
M55-V
M55-W1
M55-W2
MO783-IR
MO783-W1
MO783-W2
MO784-IR
MO784-W1
MO784-W2
700-500
850-700
200-100
v
>850
-400
-200
0
200
300-200
WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008
400-300
400
600
800
slide 10
ECMWF
Diff in RMS of an-Incr: RMS(an_eu3b - bg_eu3b) - RMS(an_etxa - bg_etxa)
OSE: Summer 20060615-20060715
Lev=850,AMV
Par=u, anDate=20060615-20060715
12Z, Step=0
NH=0.02120°W
SH= 0.03 Trop=
NAtl= 0.06 NPac=
0.02
60°W 0.14 Eur=0
0° NAmer= 060°E
120°E
2.5
Diff in RMS of fc-Error: RMS(fc_eu3b - an_eu3b) - RMS(fc_etxa - an_etxa)2
60°N1.5
Lev=850, Par=u, fcDate=20060615-20060715 12Z, Step=24
1
NH=0 SH= -0.02 Trop= 0.13 Eur=0 NAmer= -0.01 NAtl= -0.02 NPac= 0.04 ATreC-0.01
60°N
120°W
30°N
60°W
0°
60°E
An Increment
120°E
30°N0.5
2.5
0.25
0°
0°
60°N
2
0.1
-0.1
60°N1.5
-0.25
30°S
30°S-0.5
30°N
1
60°S
0°
120°W
30°S
60°S-1.5
0.25
0°
0.1
-2
Diff in RMS of fc-Error: RMS(fc_eu3b - an_eu3b) - RMS(fc_etxa
- an_etxa)-0.1
-2.5
-0.25
Lev=850, Par=u, fcDate=20060615-20060715 12Z, Step=48
60°W
0°
60°E
120°E
30°S-0.5
NH=-0.02 SH= -0.07 Trop= 0.13 Eur=-0.03 NAmer= 0 NAtl= -0.11 NPac= 0.01 ATreC-0.06
δJ Vis 1000-700hPa
120°W
60°W
0°
60°E
120°E
-1
60°S-1.5
60°S
-2
60°N
120°W
-2.5
60°W
0°
60°E
120°E
30°N
850 hPa U-Comp
RMSE AMV-Ref
24h Fce
30°N0.5
-1
0°
5
3
60°N2.5
2
1.5
30°N1
0.5
0.25
0°
-0.25
48h Fce
-0.5
30°S-1
-1.5
30°S
-2
60°S-2.5
60°S
-3
-5
120°W
WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008
60°W
0°
60°E
slide 11
120°E
ECMWF
Monitoring ECMWF System: Winter 2007
OZONE
GOES
METEOSAT
AMSUB
MHS
SSMI-TCWV
SSMI
GPS RO
AIRS
AMSUA
HIRS
SCAT
MODIS-WV
MODIS-IR
GSM-WV
GSM-VIS
GSM-IR
METEOSAT-WV
METEOSAT-VIS
METEOSAT-IR
GOES-WV
GOES-VIS
GOES-IR
PILOT
TEMP
AIREP
DRIBU
SYNOP
-45000
-40000
-35000
-30000
-25000
-20000
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
Forecast Error Contribution (J/kg)
WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008
slide 12
ECMWF
GPS RO FcE Contribution Winter 2007
hPa
0.8
50
47
44
41
38
35
12
km
32
29
26
23
20
17
14
250
11
8
5
-600
-400
-200
0
WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008
200
400
600
slide 13
800
1000
1200
ECMWF
Diff in RMS of an-Incr: RMS(an_eux1 - bg_eux1) - RMS(an_euwz - bg_euwz)
Lev=50, Par=t, anDate=20070105-20070212 12Z, Step=0
NH=0.06 SH=
0.06 Trop=60°W
0.15 Eur=-0.01
NPac= 0.13
120°W
0° NAmer= 0.02
60°E NAtl= 0.07
120°E
50 hPa RMSE Temperature GPSRO-Control Winter 2007
-70
60°N
30°N
-70
- 60
2.5
-70
-60
-80
2
60°N
1.5
1
-60
-60
0.5
30°N
-70
0.25
0°
0°
0.1
An Increment
-0.1
-0.25
30°S
30°S
-0.5
-60
60°S
-60
-60
-1
Diff in RMS of fc-Error: RMS(fc_eux1 - an_eux1) - RMS(fc_euwz - an_euwz)
-50
-50
Lev=50, Par=t, fcDate=20070105-20070211 0Z, Step=24
-1.5
60°S
NH=0.03 SH= 0.06 Trop= 0.13
0.1-2ATreC0
-40 Eur=-0.05 NAmer= 0 NAtl= 0.04 NPac=
-40
-50
-40
120°W
120°W
-70
60°W
60°W
0°
0°
120°E -2.5
120°E
-80
2.5
-70
-60
2
-70
-60
60°N
60°E
60°E
60°N
1.5
-50
30°N
1
-60
-60
0.5
30°N
-70
0.25
-70
0°
24h Fce
0°
-70
-0.25
30°S
30°S
-0.5
-60RMS of fc-Error: RMS(fc_eux1-6-0 an_eux1) - RMS(fc_euwz - an_euwz)
Diff in
-1
-50
-50
Lev=50, Par=t, fcDate=20070105-20070211
0Z, Step=48
-1.5
60°S
NH=0 SH=
-0.01
Trop=
0.06
Eur=-0.05
NAmer=
-0.02
NAtl=
0.02 NPac= 0.05 ATreC0
-2
-40
-60
60°S
0.1
-0.1
-50
-40
120°W
120°W
60°W
0°
-70
60°E
120°E
-70
-60
-80
-70
- 60
-60
-60
-70
48h Fce
60°E
-2.5
120°E
60°N
30°N
-40
0°
60°W
-70
0°
0°
-70
-0.25
-0.5
-70
30°S
60°S
5
3
2.5
60°N
2
1.5
30°N
1
0.5
0.25
-60
-60
-60
-50
-50
-50
-40
-40
-40
-1
30°S
-1.5
-2
60°S
-2.5
-3
-5
120°W
WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008
60°W
0°
60°E
slide 14
ECMWF
120°E
GPS RO Impact on Forecast Error Winter 2007
48h Fce
24h Fce
OZONE
GOES
METEOSAT
AMSUB
MHS
SSMI-TCWV
SSMI
GPS RO
AIRS
AMSUA
HIRS
SCAT
MODIS-WV
MODIS-IR
GSM-WV
GSM-VIS
GSM-IR
METEOSAT-WV
METEOSAT-VIS
METEOSAT-IR
GOES-WV
GOES-VIS
GOES-IR
PILOT
TEMP
AIREP
DRIBU
SYNOP
-150000 -130000 -110000 -90000
-70000
-50000 -150000
-30000 -130000
-10000
WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008
-110000
10000
-90000
-70000
OZONE
GOES
METEOSAT
AMSUB
MHS
SSMI-TCWV
SSMI
GPS RO
AIRS
AMSUA
HIRS
SCAT
MODIS-WV
MODIS-IR
GSM-WV
GSM-VIS
GSM-IR
METEOSATMETEOSATMETEOSATGOES-WV
GOES-VIS
GOES-IR
PILOT
TEMP
AIREP
DRIBU
SYNOP
-50000
slide 15
-30000
-10000
10000
ECMWF
GPS RO Impact on Forecast Error Winter 2007
50
47
44
41
38
35
32
29
26
48h Fce
23
20
17
14
11
8
5
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
50
47
44
41
38
35
km
32
29
26
24h Fce
23
20
17
14
11
8
5
-1500
-1000
-500
0
WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008
500
1000
1500
slide 16
2000
ECMWF
DATE1=20061215/... DATE2=20061215/...
DEG Winter 2007: 100 hPa RMSE Temperature GPSRO-Control
GPS RO
FORECAST VERIFICATION
2.2
2
beux1
beuwz
100 hPa TEMPERATURE/DRY BULB TEMPERATURE
1.8
ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR
FORECAST
AREA=TROPICS TIME=00 MEAN OVER 66 CASES
1.6
2.2
DEG1.4
2
1.2
1.8
1
1.6
0.8
1.4
0.6
1.2
0.4
1 0
DATE1=20061215/... DATE2=20061215/...
RMSE
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
6
7
8
9
10
Forecast Day
0.8
MA GICS 6.11 thrud - sti Tue A ug 14 12:46:48 2007 V erify S COCOM
0.6
FORECAST VERIFICATION
0.4
100 hPa TEMPERATURE/DRY BULB TEMPERATURE
MEAN ERROR
FORECAST
1
2
3
4
5
0
Forecast Day
AREA=TROPICS TIME=00 MEAN OVER 66 CASES
DATE1=20061215/... DATE2=20061215/...
MA GICS 6.11 thrud - sti Tue A ug 14 12:46:48 2007 V erify S COCOM
beux1
9
beuwz
10
0.9
0.8
FORECAST VERIFICATION
Mean
beux1
beuwz
100 hPa TEMPERATURE/DRY BULB TEMPERATURE
0.7
MEAN ERROR
FORECAST
AREA=TROPICS TIME=00 MEAN OVER 66 CASES
0.6
0.9
0.5
0.8
0.4
0.7
0.3
0.6
0.2
0.5
0.1
0.4
0
0.3 0
0.2
MA GICS 6.11 thrud - sti Tue A ug 14 12:46:48 2007 V erify S COCOM *
DATE1=20061215/... DATE2=20061215/...
1
2
4
5
7
6
7
8
9
10
1 E RROR(S ) FOUND *
FORECAST VERIFICATION
100 hPa TEMPERATURE/DRY BULB TEMPERATURE
Workshop
OF ERROR
1 STANDARD DEVIATION
2Geneva
3 2008 FORECAST
4
5
Forecast Day
AREA=TROPICS TIME=00 MEAN OVER 66 CASES
MA GICS 6.11 thrud - sti Tue A ug 14 12:46:48 2007 V erify S COCOM *
6
Forecast Day
0.1
0
WMO Data Impact
0
3
1 E RROR(S ) FOUND *
DATE1=20061215/... DATE2=20061215/...
beux1
slide8 17
9
beuwz
ECMWF
10
Automatic&Manual Surface Press SYNOP FcE Conribution
ECMWF Analysis VT:Saturday 6 January 2007 00UTC Surface: **Mean sea level pressure
60°W
50°W
40°W
30°W 20°W 10°W 0°
10°E 20°E
30°E
40°E
50°E
60°E
70°E
L
996
08
10
H
L
LH
70°N
1020
75°N
1008
H
L
H
L
60°W
L
50°W
H
L
60°E
65°N
60°N
H
HL
H
L
40°W
1008
1008
55°N
LH
L
H
50°N
L
H
1020
H
1020
45°N
30°W
H
H
H
10
L
H
L
H
L
40°N
L
H
L
H
LH
L
H
H
H
HL
0°
10°E
20°E
L
°N
25
H
10°W
40°E
°N
30
1020
HL
35°N
50°E
H
L H
L
20
H
H L
20°W
70°E
996
L
30°E
6000
WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008
slide 18
ECMWF
Automatic Surf Press SYNOP FcE Contribution
Winter 2007 Time Series
24h Fce
48h Fce
WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008
slide 19
ECMWF
Pressure
250
used
p 2007010600-2007021212(12)
ewnz
/DA
300
departure o-b
SYNOP-Ps (Pa)background
areaNSEW=
54/ 47/ 20/ 0
nb= 185224 rms= 72.2
400
used
p
0
250
Surf Press SYNOP Control Observation Departures Winter 2007
500
700
5
85010
0.400
1000
mean= 23.4
std= 68.3
background
min=
-375. departure
max= o-b371.
nb=
207629
rms=
68.9
mean=
12.1
std=
67.8
min=
-511.
max=
459.
480
759
853
5
0.400 676
10
1
2
3
4
x
5
10
0.240 10
5
0.400 10
0.320 10 -15
5
0.500 10
0.240 10
5
0.400 10
5
5
5
5
0
5
-100
0
100
STD.DEV
-300
0.100 10
-200
70
200
300
Pressure (hPa)
5
0.300 10
Eu Area
METAR Automatic
mean=
-29.5
std=
background departure o-b
min=
-467.
max=
nb= 185224 rms= 72.2
mean= 23.4
std= 68.3
min= -375.
max= 371.
66.8
436.
-5
0
-300
0
-300
-100
0
100
200
300
70
200
100
300
200
0
250
300
400
500
700
5
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
x 0.01
5
5
0.120
0.240
1010
5
background departure o-b
-300 -200 -100
100
200
nb=
1748644 0 rms=
81.4300
mean=
8.79
std=
80.9
ewnz /DA min=
2007010600-2007021212(12)
-612.
max=
551.
5
0.120
0.240
10 10
METAR-Ps (Pa)
used p
850
1000
-0.3
0.400 10
background departure o-b
nb=
126805
rms=
73.0
mean=
-29.5
std=
66.8
min=
-467.
max=
436.
0.3
0.6
x 0.001
8000
0
-300
0
-300
areaNSEW= 54/ 47/ 20/ 0
6
0
5
5
6000
0.160 10
0
0.400 10
6
0.320 10
6
0.240 10
6
5
0.300
10 106
0.160
5
0.240 10
5
0.180 10
5
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
analysis departure o-a
-200 -100
0
100
200
300
nb=
1748644
rms=
60.9
mean=
6.78
std=
60.5
min=
-448.
max=
415.
analysis departure o-a
nb=
126805
rms=
64.4
mean=
-34.8
std=
54.2
min=
-340.
max=
343.
5
0.300
0.160
10 10
0.2405 10
0.800 10
0.800 10
5
0.180 10
0
0.120 10
-200
100
150
5
0.1805 473
10
0.320 10
-0.6
5
-100
0
5
100010
5
0.180
0.320 10 0
6
15
0
0.2405 10
0.400 10 680
6
10
5
5
0.240 10
0
BIAS
-200
0
0
5
855
ewnz /DA
2007010600-2007021212(12)
6000
0.160 10
SYNOP-Ps (Pa) N.Hemis
used 8000
p 0
-300 -200 -100
0
100
200
300
N.Hemisphere
-10
analysis departure o-a
5
0.240 10
0.400850
10
6
850
analysis departure o-a
nb=
126805
rms=
64.4
88
mean=
-34.8
std=
54.2
analysis departure o-a
-340.
max=
343.
481 nb= min=
185224 rms= 54.3
11.7
std= 53.0
763 mean=
min= -332.
max= 249.
0.300 10
700
0.320 10
700
background departure o-b
0
nobsexp
5
0.100 10
ewnz
1000 /DA 2007010600-2007021212(12)
-300 -200 -100
0
100
200
300
METAR-Ps
(Pa) areaNSEW= 54/ 47/ 20/ 0
150
ewnz
/DA 2007010600-2007021212(12)
used
200 p
SYNOP-Ps (Pa)background
areaNSEW=
departure 54/
o-b 47/ 20/ 0
250
used p
nb=
126805
rms=
73.0
500
500
5
5
5
400
400
1000
exp:ewnz
/DA 2007010600-2007021212(12)
0.160 10
0.160 10
0.300 10
0.300 10
Drop-q
N.Hemis
8000
8000
used
q
0.200 10
0.200 10
300
300
analysis departure o-a
nb= 185224 rms= 54.3
mean= 11.7
std= 53.0
analysis
departure
o-a 249.
min=
-332.
max=
nb=
207629
rms=
54.7
mean=
4.80
std=
54.5
min=
-422.
max=
387.
472
5
5
0.320 100
5
0.500 10
Eu Area
Manual
88
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
0.120 10
0
6000
0
0
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
-300
5
6000
WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008
5
-200
-100
0
100
200
slide 20
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
300
ECMWF
AIRS FcE Contribution Winter 2007
1918
1882
1873
1865
1794
1756
1694
1593
1538
1479
1449
1329
787
484
355
309
272
256
239
221
210
193
180
172
156
139
117
104
72
27
7
-2200
-2000
-1800
-1600
-1400
WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008
-1200
-1000
-800
-600
slide 21
-400
-200
0
ECMWF
200
AIRS OSE and FcE Contribution
~300 hPa q
RMSE AIRS-Ref
Diff in RMS of fc-Error: RMS(fc_ep8p - an_ep8p) - RMS(fc_enti - an_enti)
Lev=34, Par=q, fcDate=20041223-20050123 12Z, Step=24
NH=0 SH= 0 Trop= 0 Eur=0 NAmer= 0 NAtl= 0 NPac= 0 ATreC0
120°W
60°W
0°
60°E
120°E
0.9E-01
60°N
60°N
0.3E-01
30°N
30°N
0.9E-02
0°
0°
0.1E-02
-0.5E-02
30°S
30°S
-0.1E-01
60°S
60°S
-0.5E-01
-0.1E+00
120°W
WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008
60°W
0°
60°E
slide 22
120°E
ECMWF
Conclusion&Remarks
 Forecast sensitivity to observations allow to monitor the
observation forecast impact on the 24 and 48 h range
 24h fce more related to analysis problems
 The tool provides information on the observation type,
subtype, variable and level responsible for the forecast error
variation. Causes must be found that explain the failure
 Failures can be due to the data quality or some characteristics
of the assimilation system and can highly depend on the
weather situation
 Monitoring of the operation system
 Forecast error is Forecast- Analysis
Must also be computed with respect to Observations
WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008
slide 23
ECMWF
SCAT Visible versus AMV 48h FcE Contribution: Winter 2007
SCAT
U-Comp
AMV
WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008
slide 24
ECMWF
OZONE
GOES
METEOSAT
AMSUB
MHS
SSMI-TCWV
SSMI
GPS RO
AIRS
AMSUA
HIRS
SCAT
MODIS-WV
MODIS-IR
GSM-WV
GSM-VIS
GSM-IR
METEOSAT-WV
METEOSAT-VIS
METEOSAT-IR
GOES-WV
GOES-VIS
GOES-IR
PILOT
TEMP
AIREP
DRIBU
SYNOP
48h Fce
Third Order SG 24 h
-150000 -130000 -110000 -90000
-70000 -50000
-150000
-130000
-110000
-30000
-10000
10000
OZONE
GOES
METEOSAT
AMSUB
MHS
SSMI-TCWV
SSMI
GPS RO
AIRS
AMSUA
HIRS
SCAT
MODIS-WV
MODIS-IR
GSM-WV
GSM-VIS
GSM-IR
METEOSAT-WV
METEOSAT-VIS
METEOSAT-IR
GOES-WV
GOES-VIS
GOES-IR
PILOT
TEMP
AIREP
DRIBU
SYNOP
WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008
-150000
-130000
-110000
-90000
-70000
-50000
-30000
-90000
-10000
10000
O
G
M
A
M
S
S
G
A
A
H
S
M
M
G
G
G
M
M
M
G
G
G
P
T
A
D
S
24h Fce
-70000
-50000
-30000
-10000
3rd Order SG 24h Fce
slide 25
ECMWF
10000
48h Fce
3rd Order SG 24h Fce
WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008
slide 26
ECMWF
24h Fce
50
47
44
41
38
35
km
32
29
26
23
20
17
14
11
GPS-RO 24 h Third order SG
8
5
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
10 0 0
12 0 0
50
47
44
41
38
35
32
29
26
23
20
17
14
11
8
5
- 2 0 0 0 - 18 0 0
- 16 0 0
- 14 0 0
- 12 0 0
- 10 0 0
-800
-600
800
10 0 0
12 0 0
14 0 0
3rd Order SG 24h Fce
WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008
slide 27
16 0 0
18 0 0
2000
2200
ECMWF
Summer&Winter Satellite FcE Contribution
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
AMSU-A
14
3
4
AMSU-B
5
Winter
Winter
Summer
Sum m er
-1200
-12000
-10000
-8000
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
SSMI
2000
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
4000
TCWV
Winter
Summer
-800
-700
-600
WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
slide 28
0
ECMWF
600
48h FcE Contribution of
Meteosat
GOES
Ozone
WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008
slide 29
ECMWF
AMV Summer 2006: Niels Bormann modification
OLD-U
NEW-U
GOES254
GOES254-VIS
GOES256
GOES256-VIS
Meteosat52
Meteosat55
Meteosat52-VIS
Meteosat55-VIS
850-700
850-700
OLD-U
>850
>850
NEW-U
GOES254-VIS
-100
-100
0
0
100
100
GOES256-VIS
200
200
300
300
Meteosat52-VIS
400
400
500
500
Meteosat55-VIS
600
600
700
700
800
800
850-700
NEW-U
>850
-100
0
100
200
WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008
300
400
500
600
slide 30
700
800
ECMWF
AIRS FcE Contribution Summer 2006
1918
1873
1794
1694
1538
1449
787
355
272
239
210
180
156
117
72
7
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008
-300
-200
-100
slide 31
0
100
200
ECMWF
AIRS Summer 2006: OSE
Diff in RMS of fc-Error: RMS(fc_etzq - an_etzq) - RMS(fc_etxa - an_etxa)
Lev=700, Par=t, fcDate=20060615-20060715 12Z, Step=24
NH=0 SH= 0.01 Trop= 0.03 Eur=0 NAmer= -0.01 NAtl= 0.02 NPac= 0.02 ATreC0.01
700 hPa 24h RMSE T AIRS-REF
120°W
60°W
0°
60°E
120°E
2.5
-10
2
60°N
60°N1.5
0
0
1
0
10
30°N
10
30°N0.5
0.25
10
0°
0°
10
10
30°S
-0.1
-0.25
0
-20
-20
60°W
WMO Data Impact Workshop Geneva 2008
60°S-1.5
-2
-30
120°W
-1
-10
-10
-20
30°S-0.5
0
0
-10
60°S
0.1
-2.5
0°
60°E
120°E
slide 32
ECMWF