CO

2

Emissions from Cars, Trucks & Buses in the Metropolitan Washington Region

Presentation to the National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board Ronald F. Kirby Director of Transportation Planning

June 20, 2007

Item # 9

Greenhouse Gases

Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) Methane (CH (HFCs) 4 ) Nitrous Oxide (N 2 O) Hydrofluorocarbons Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF 6 ) CH4 7% N20 7% HFC 2% CO2 84% COG Climate Change Steering Committee, May 23, 2007 2

Emission Sources

Electricity On-road Motor Vehicles Solid Waste Wastewater Natural Gas/Home Heating Oil Aviation, Rail, Construction, Agriculture Substitutes to Ozone Depleting Substances Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry COG Climate Change Steering Committee, May 23, 2007 3

US Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector Commercial 7% Agriculture 7% Transportation 28%

Source: EPA 2004 National GHG Inventory

Industry 20% Residential 6% Electricity Generation 32%

COG Climate Change Steering Committee, May 23, 2007 4

Estimates of CO 2 Emissions from Mobile Sources (Cars, Trucks & Buses) in the Metropolitan Washington Region

8-hour Ozone Non-Attainment Area (map on next slide) 2006 CLRP, Round 7.0a Cooperative Forecasts 2005 Regional Fleet Inventory (New Inventory scheduled for 2008) EPA Mobile 6.2 Emissions Model 5

8-Hour Ozone Non-Attainment Area

6

Annual Mobile CO 2 Emissions (Tons) for 8-Hour Ozone Non-Attainment Area

Note: Years 2000, 2005 and 2020 were interpolated using 2002, 2010 and 2030 emissions estimates from the October 18, 2006 conformity determination.

7

2002-2030 Changes in Households, Employment, VMT, NOx, VOC and CO 2 for the 8-Hour Ozone Non-Attainment Area

Households Employment Annual VMT (000,000’s) NOx (tons/day) VOC (tons/day) CO2 (tons/year)

2002

2,893,646 1,742,117 39,212

2030

4,162,621 2,463,893 53,726 259.232

34.899

101.117

39.41

23,273,168 34,450,922

% Change

44% 41% 37% -87% -61% 48% 8

Regional Average Rates for CO

2

(Grams per Vehicle Mile)

Major Road Network Local Roads School Bus Transit Bus

2002

506 454 1,634 2,402

2010

527 476 1,642 2,350

2030

546 490 1,647 2,334 9

Vehicle Fleet and Demographic Data for the Washington Region by State

Passenger Vehicles Light Duty Trucks Heavy Duty Trucks Total Vehicles Population Vehicles per Person Households Vehicles per Household

DC

178,665 63,193 8,936 250,794

MD

935,998 568,131 85,160 1,589,289

VA

889,426 549,240 69,829 1,508,495

Washington Metro Area

2,004,089 1,180,563 163,925 3,348,578 577,500 0.43

2,236,600 0.71

2,057,700 0. 73 4,871,800 0.69

252,000 1.00

811,500 1.96

771,500 1.96

1,835,000 1.82

National

105,955,155 97,974,626 15,389,261 219,328,042 296,410,400 0.74

122,671,734 1.79

Hybrid Vehicles Hybrid Vehicles per 1,000 People Hybrid Vehicles per 1,000 Households 923 1.60

3.66

2,640 1.18

3.25

8,280 4.02

10.73

11,843 2.43

6.45

405,911 1.37

3.31

Hybrid Percent of Passenger Vehicles Hybrid Percent of Total Vehicles 0.52

0.37

0.28

0.17

0.93

0.55

0.59

0.35

Presentation to the Transportation Planning Board, May 17, 2006 0.38

0.19

10

California Low Emission Vehicles II (CAL LEV II)

More stringent emissions standards for greenhouse gases (CO 2 , methane, nitrous oxide) and other pollutants Applies to automobiles and light trucks starting with the 2009 model year California requested EPA waiver in December 2005; not yet granted Eleven other states including Maryland plan to adopt CAL LEV II, and another six states are considering these standards 11

Reductions in Annual CO 2 Emissions with Regionwide CAL LEV II Vehicles

40 30 20 10 0 2000 2002 2005

Year

2010 Baseline Emissions 2020 2030 Reduced Emissions 12

Reductions in Annual CO 2 Emissions (Millions of Tons) with Regionwide CAL LEV II Vehicles

Baseline CAL LEV II Reductions Percent Reductions Reduced Emissions

2002

23.273 31.018 34.451

0 0

2020

4.386

14.1

2030

5.993

17.4

23.273 26.632 28.458

% Change 2002 - 2030

48% 22% 13

Additional CO 2 Reductions Could be Achieved through Reductions in Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT)

Travel Demand Reduction Strategies such as Telecommuting, increased transit and ridesharing Land Use/Transportation strategies such as the TPB RMAS Scenarios Current programs/scenarios reduce 2030 VMT by one to two percent 14

2030 Household and Employment Growth:

TPB Transit Oriented Development Scenario

(2010-2030) Non Shifted Growth 232,700 10% ( 2010-2030) Shifted Growth 125,000 5%

(2010-2030) Non Shifted Growth 537,090 13% (2010-2030) Shifted Growth 150,000 4%

2010 Households, 2,023,300 85%

2010 Employment 3,376,810 83%

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Conclusions

VOC and NOx mobile emissions are declining significantly even though overall vehicle travel is growing, due primarily to cleaner vehicles and fuels CO 2 mobile emissions are growing steadily. To achieve CO 2 reductions we need to: Reduce CO strategies) 2 emissions per vehicle mile (e.g. California greenhouse gas emissions standards, Federal CAFE Standards) Reduce vehicle miles of travel (Demand management, land use/transportation 16