Transcript World Meteorological Organization OMM WMO Working together in weather, climate and water WMO OMM Early Warning Systems Dr.

World Meteorological Organization
OMM WMO
Working together in weather, climate and water
WMO OMM
Early Warning Systems
Dr. Maryam Golnaraghi
Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme
World Meteorological Organization
29-30 May 2013
Skopje, Macedonia
www.wmo.int
Outline
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Impacts of meteorological, hydrological and climate-related
Hazards
The Hyogo Framework for Action 2005 – 2015
A Comprehensive National Framework for Disaster Risk
Reduction
What is an Early Warning Systems?
Examples of Good Practices in EWS
10 common principles for successful EWS
International and Regional Cooperation in Science and
technology to support Early Warning Systems
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2009
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WMO
South-East Europe
(Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Croatia, FYR
Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Kosovo (as
defined by UNSCR 1244/99), and Turkey)
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Main
South-East Europe
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WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data
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South-East Europe
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Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.be
Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium
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2009
WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data
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South-East Europe
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WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data
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South-East Europe
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2003 Summer heat
wave: 788 deaths in
Croatia
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WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data
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South-East Europe
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Forest fire in Croatia in
1983: $US 0.5 billion
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WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data
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Hyogo-Framework for Action 2005-2015 in a nut shell…
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Governance and Institutional Framework (Policy, Legislation, legal
framework, institutional coordination)
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(Multi-sector, Multi-level, Multi-Hazard)
Risk Assessment
QUANTITATIVE MULTIHAZARD-MULTI-LEVEL,
MULTI-SECTOR RISK
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ANALYSIS
Hazard, exposure and
vulnerability
databases
Statistical and forward
looking approaches
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Risk Financing and
Transfer
Risk Reduction
PREPAREDNESS &
RESPONSE:
early warning systems
emergency planning
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Gov Investments, trust
funds (ex-ante, post
disaster)
CAT insurance & bonds
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PREVENTION and
MITIGATION:
Sectoral Medium to long term
planning (e.g. zoning,
infrastructure, agriculture…)
Weather-indexed
insurance and derivatives
Other emerging products
Information and Knowledge Sharing
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Education and training
2009
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© World Meteorological Organization
A Multi-Sector, Multi Level Issue
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• Policy and legislative process (Roles and responsibilities)
• Early Warning Systems development and on-going
operations with Disaster Risk Management and local
Communities with a sustainability approach
• Socio-economic sectors:
–
–
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–
–
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Transport (air, land, water)
Agriculture and food security
Water Resource Management
Land zoning
Infrastructure and urban planning
Health
Tourism
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South-East Europe
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Multi-Hazard Issue
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.be
Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium
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WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data
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Understanding the Risks Provides the
Foundation for Preventing Disaster Risks!
Hazard
Analysis and
Mapping
Exposure
and
Vulnerability
Potential
Loss
Estimates
Number of
lives at risk
$ at risk
Heavy Precipitation
and flood mapping
Need for historical and
real time data
Statistical analysis tools
climate forecasts and
trend analysis
Impacts:
 population density
 agricultural land
 urban grid
Infrastructure
Businesses
This
information is
critical for
decision-making
and
development of
strategies to
reduce the risks
Destruction of
buildings and
infrastructure
Reduction in crop
yields
Business
interruption
Need for SocioNeed for risk assessment
economic impacts
tools combining hazard,
data and analysis
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asset and exposure
tools
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information
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Early Warning Systems Require Coordination
Across Many Levels and Agencies
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National to local disaster risk reduction plans, legislation and coordination mechanisms
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3
2
4
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Many countries are still in response and
relief mode!
COMMUNITIES AT RISK
National
Government
(emergency systems)
disaster
response
Local
government
Disaster
response
National Technical
Services
Meteorological
Hydrological
Geological
hazard warning
Marine
Health (etc.)…
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There is need for investments in all Components of
Early Warning Systems at national to local levels
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National
Government
DRR coordination
mechanisms
Aligned policies, plans, resources,
coordination
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warnings
4
feedback
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5
Local
Government
responsible for
emergency
preparedness and
response
3
Community Prepared
Capacity Development and
Coordinated National
Technical Agencies
2
Meteorological
4
warnings
Hydrological
feedback
Geological
Marine
Health, Agricuture (etc.)
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Weather, Climate and Hydrological Services to support DRR Decision-Making
Other National Agencies Involved in DRR
a
(e.g. Hydrological Services, Ocean Services, Health Services, Space)
National DRR Governance and
Institutional Frameworks
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National
e
Agreements & SOPs
National Meteorological Service (NMS)
Core Operatioinal
Components
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

Observing network
Operational Forecasting
Telecommunications
d
Human Resource
Data Management Systems
Etc...
Data, Forecast, Analysis
Products & Services for:
 Risk Analysis
c
 Early Warnnings
 Sectoral Planning
Disaster Risk Financing
and insurance
Quality Managment Systems (QMS)
e
National DRR
Stakeholders
b
Requirments
Service Delivery
Feedback
Agreements
&
SOPs
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Government (national to local)
Socio-economi sectors
Private Sector
NGOs
General Public
Media
Etc...
GTS/WIS
Agreements & SOPs
Regional
f
Global & Regional
Specialized Meteorological & Climate Centers
(GPC, RSMC and RCC)
RegionalDRR Governance and
Institutional Frameworks
Example of cooperation of NMS with technical and EWS
stakeholders in context of different hazard types
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Increasing level of operational coordination with primary coordinators of
emergency preparedness and response
Type I
Type II
Type III
Hazard fully under the
mandate of NMS
Hazard under joint
mandate of NMS with
another technical
agency (e.g., NHS)
Hazard under mandate
of other agencies but
NMS contribute
e.g. strong winds, strong
rainfall, snow/ice, hail, tropical
cyclone
e.g. floods, landslides,
heat/health etc.
e.g. locust, health epidemic,
man-made hazards
Increasing Level of operational coordination and cooperation with other
national technical and sectoral agencies for early detection, monitoring and
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development
ofJacq
warnings
2009
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Examples of Good practices in Multi-Hazard
Early Warning Systems and Lessons Learned
• Bangladesh
• Cuba
• French Vigilance
system
• Germany
• Japan
• Shanghai (Mega City)
• USA
Ref. Golnaraghi, M. (Ed.) “Institutional Partnerships in MultiHazard Early WarningPrésentation
Systems:
compilation
of Seven National
pour FA
Jacq
- 11 mai
19
2009
Good Practices and Guiding Principles,”
Springer Verlag (2012)
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Ten common
principles for
successful EWS
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10 common principles for successful Early
Warning Systems (1/2)
1.
Political recognition of the benefits of EWS along with
effective planning, legislation and budgeting
2.
Effective EWS are built upon four components:
3.
Roles and responsibilities of all EWS stakeholders and their
collaboration mechanisms clearly defined and documented
4.
Capacities aligned with resources across national to local
levels (sustainability)
5.
Hazard, exposure and vulnerability information are used to
carry-out risk assessments
at Fdifferent
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(i)) hazard detection, monitoring and forecasting;
(ii) analyzing risks and incorporation of risk information in emergency planning
and warnings;
(iii) disseminating timely and “authoritative” warnings with clarity on the
responsibilities and mandate for issuance of warnings;
(iv) community emergency planning and preparedness and the ability to activate
emergency plans to prepare and respond
2009
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6.
7.
8.
9.
10 common principles for successful Early
Warning Systems (2/2)
Clear, consistent and actionable hazard warnings, with
risk information and issued from a single recognized
authoritative source
Timely, reliable, redundant and sustainable warning
dissemination mechanisms
Emergency response plans targeted to the individual
needs of the vulnerable communities, authorities and
emergency responders
Regular training and education programmes in risk
awareness and emergency response actions
10. Effective feedback mechanisms throughout levels of the
EWS for system improvement over time
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International and
Regional Cooperation in
Science and technology
to support Early
Warning Systems
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WMO Leverages International and Regional Cooperation:
Coordinates Operation Meteorological Network to support
National Meteorological and Hydrological Services
189 Members
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Global/Regional Operational Network of WMO
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Moscow
Exeter
ECMWF
Montreal
Beijing
Toulouse
DMCSEE
Washington
Seoul
Tokyo
LC-LRFMME
ACMAD
ICPAC
CIIFEN
Pretoria
SADC-DMC
Gobal Producing Centres of Long
Range Forecasts (GPCs)
Regional Climate Centres (RCCs)
Melbourne
LC-SVSLRF
RCC Network Nodes (Pilot)
Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres with Activity Specialization
Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres with Geographical Specialization
Regional climate institutions with strong WMO support
LC-SVSLRF: Lead Centre for Standardized Verification System for Long Range
Forecasts
LC-LRFMME: Lead Centre for Long Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble
Sand & Dust Storm Warning & Assessment System Centres
Monsoon Activity Centres
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OMM WMO
Regional harmonization,
interoperability of national early
warning systems is critical to
managing trans-boundary
hazards and sustainability of
national systems
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OMM WMO
Thank You
For more information please
contact:
Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.
Chief
Disaster Risk Reduction Programme
World Meteorological Organization
Tel. +41.22.730.8006
Email. [email protected]
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Example 1: France Vigilance System
+ Flood warning map
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Hazards
Strong wind
Level of warning
Strong rainfall
Level 4
Thunderstorm
Level 3
Snow/Ice
Level 2
Avalanches
Level 1
Heat waves
Initiated in coordination by MétéoFrance and French civil security,
Vigilance system activates cascades of
preparedness and response plans,
actions and responsibilities
Legislation
Planning
Organizational linkages
Training and feedback
national to
local authorities
Example 2: USA Multi-Hazard Early Warning
System
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• The U.S. National Response Framework (NRF)
provides the guiding principles that enable all
response partners to deliver a unified national
response to disasters and emergencies,
Maintained by the U.S. Department of
Homeland Security’s Federal Emergency
Management Agency (FEMA)
Saving Lives Through Partnerships
NOAA TEAM
PARTNERS
END USERS
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“America’s Weather Enterprise: Protecting 2009
Lives, Livelihoods, and Your Way of Life”
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Example 3: Japan Multi-Hazard Early Warning
System
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Information Sharing System based on Advanced IT Infrastructure
FDMA
Satellite network
Predigested maps and information
Zoom up the area of concern
○○市大雨警報発表中
Prefecture
City
Prefectural LAN
Disaster prevention
information system
JMA
□□県土砂災害警戒情報第×号 平成△△年□月□日□時□分
△△県　△△地方気象台　共同発表
警戒対象市町村：○○市、××町
今後2時間以内に、大雨による土砂災害の危険度が非常に高くなる見込みです。
土砂災害危険箇所及びその周辺では厳重に警戒して下さい。警戒対象市町村
での今後３時間以内の最大1時間雨量は多いところで60mmです。
凡例
発表対象市町村
△△地震の際に震度4
以上となった地域
実況強雨域
（1時間30mm以上）
30km/h
長さは1時間の
移動距離に対応
20km/h
問い合わせ先
○○○-○○○-○○○○(□□県砂防課)
×××-×××-××××(□□地方気象台)
分□時□日□月□年△△成平　号×第報情戒警害災砂土県□□
表発同共　台象気方地△△　県△△
町××、市○○：村町市象対戒警
。すでみ込見るなく高に常非が度険危の害災砂土るよに雨大、に内以間時2後今
村町市象対戒警。いさ下てし戒警に重厳はで辺周のそび及所箇険危害災砂土
。すでmm06でろことい多は量雨間時1大最の内以間時３後今ので
Data Format for CellPhone Services
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Cell-phone
例凡
村町市象対表発
4度震に際の震地△△
域地たっなと上以
域雨強況実
）上以mm03間時1（
の間時1はさ長
応対に離距動移
h/mk03
h/mk02
先せわ合い問
)課防砂県□□(○○○○-○○○-○○○
)台象気方地□□(××××-×××-×××
Volunteer fire30fighter
Example 4: Germany - Warning Management of
the Deutscher Wetterdienst
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• a 3-tiered warning management system (time dimension) that differentiates
between 5 risk levels
Prewarning
48 to 6 h ahead
for preparation only in
case of expected
severe weather warning
Regional hazard bulletin
24 h ahead
updated 4 times per day
(Severe) Weather Warning
12 to 0 h ahead
The spatial and the timely
scale of all warning information
are closely connected
Early Warning Hazard
Bulletin for Germany
daily updated
7 to 2 days ahead
• FeWIS a customized information platform- one system
for different authorities – developed in co-operation
with disaster management organisations
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Example 5: Shanghai City
Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Emergency
Response Programme (Mega City)
Multi-Hazard, Multi-Agency, Grass root
Example 6: Cuba Cyclone Early Warning
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Small country, 99% access to media (radio & TV), coordinated top-down
warning and response mechanisms
Warning
Example 7: Cyclone Preparedness Programme
in Bangladesh
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International Attention to Early Warning
Systems with Multi-Hazard Approach (1/2)
• First International Early Warning Conferences (Potsdam, 1998)
(http://www.geomuseum.com/ewc98/)
• Second World Summit on Sustainable Development
(Johannesburg, 2002)
– Johannesburg Plan of Implementation
• Second International Early Warning Conferences (Bonn, 2003)
(http://www.ewc2.org/pg000001.htm)
– Platform for Promotion of Early Warnings
• World Conference on Disaster Reduction (Kobe, January 2005)
– Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015
• G8 Summit and UN General Assembly (2005, 2006)
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EWS References
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• M. Golnaraghi (ed) (2012), “Institutional Partnership in Multihazard Early Warning Systems:A Compilation of Seven National Good
Practices and Guiding Principles, Book Published by Springer Verlag
(2012)
• Golnaraghi, M., J. Douris, J. B. Migraine (2008), “Saving Lives
Through Early Warning Systems and Emergency preparedness,”
Risk Wise, Published by Tutor Rose, Page 137-141.
• Golnaraghi, M., J. Douris, C. Baubion (2011),“Good Practices in
Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems,” Risk Returns, Published
by Tutor Rose, Page 95-97
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