National Communication exercise_a tool for mainstreaming climate change into national policy and planing

Albania case

Ermira Fida, MBA

National Manager; Climate Change Unit Bonn, 12 May 2005

Content of presentation

Country context Albania and UNFCCC Highlights from INC

 Inventory, abatement, V&A

Efforts to mainstreaming

 National energy strategy  Energy efficiency, RES, GHG reduction

The way forward

Country context

Surface Area 28,748 km² Population of 3,3 million (1999). Since 1998 the country has seen steady progress.

 

As of 2003 GDP growth average 7% per year, Inflation at 2-4%, with stable currency However:

 46.6% of the population is below the poverty line of $2 per day   53% of the population lives off the land. High levels of migration (15% is abroad) and unemployment.

NSSED / PRSP

  

In line with MDGs Aims at poverty reduction Address environment protection

Albania and UNFCCC & KP

Joined the UNFCCC in January 1995  Non-Annex I Party to the UNFCCC Joined Kyoto Protocol    December 2004: Law on ratification of KP from RoA”” 1 April 2005: Instruments of ratification 30 June 2005: Albania becomes a Party to KP INC submitted and launched at COP8, India. (10/CP2)   GHG inventory GHG mitigation analysis   Vulnerability & Adaptation National Climate Change Action Plan – part of NEAP Technology Needs Assessment completed   Mitigation technologies Adaptation technologies SNC started on April 2005 (17/CP8)

INC

- highlights from GHG inventory

N2O 4.19% CH4 30.49% [7061.45 Gg] CO emissions total for 1994 2 eqv LUCF 21.60% Waste 4.81% CO2 65.32%

Energy 44.00%

CO 2 - the main GHG – 65% Energy sector –the main source category 44% Agriculture 27.12% 2.96%

GHG inventory: main indicators

Arm enia Albania Fyrom Italy Austria Greece European Union Japan UK Germ any Denm ark USA 1.30

1.97

3.11

6.60

7.10

7.50

8.40

8.60

9.20

10.50

12.00

19.80

Denmark Austria Italy Japan European Union Germany UK USA Greece Fyrom Albania Armenia

361 362 391 510 539 560 595 650 1026 2437 3758

CO2/Capita CO2/GDP

6876

(GWh)

Electricity generation

(ktoe) 4500 4250 4000 3750 3500 3250 3000 2750 2500 2250 2000 1750 1500 1250 1000 750 500 250 0

Electricity consumption

Household Service Others Industry Agriculture

Energy intensity

2.500

2.375

2.250

2.125

2.000

1.875

1.750

1.625

1.500

1.375

1.250

1.125

1.000

0.875

0.750

0.625

0.500

0.375

0.250

0.125

0.000

Greece-90 Greece-95 Greece-00 Albania-95 Croatia-00 Croatia-95 Albania-90 Croatia-90 Albania-00

energy intensity (toe/1000 USD GDP)

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8

2 2.2

High intensity & Low consumption / capita

Albania industry - very energy intensive Low energy prices Low energy consumption per capita Low levels of economic activity

INC

- highlights from GHG abatement

Gg 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Total CO2 CH4 2020 2010 2000 1994 N20 LUCF 13% Energy & transport 83% Industry 4% CO 2 Baseline scenario eqv., emissions total 2020:

37,653 Gg

Baseline scenario: CO 2 emissions in 2020:

22, 562 Gg

INC

- highlights from GHG abatement

Commer 7.0% Resident.

5.4% 3000 Transpor t 27% 2536.69

2500 Agricult.

6.4% Energy Ind.

20% Industry 35%

CO 2 from fuel combustion

Industry (35%)   manufacturing construction Transport (27%)  Road Energy Industries (20%) 2000 1500 1000 500 0 316.82

49.44

natural gas Oil (87%) Coal (11%) oil coal

INC- GHG abatement measures

End-use energy efficiency improvement Supply-use energy efficiency improvement Renewable energy Fuel switching Agriculture Industrial processes Solvent and other product use Waste management Sinks (aforestation and reforestation)

6 4 2 0 14 12 10 8 26 24 22 20 18 16

INC

- highlights from GHG abatement

reductio n o f GHG in energy transfo rmatio n secto r reductio n o f GHG fro m energy co nsumptio n in transpo rt reductio n o f GHG fro m energy co nsumptio n in agriculture reductio n o f GHG fro m energy co nsumptio n in industry reductio n o f GHG fro m energy co nsumptio n in service reductio n o f GHG fro m energy co nsumptio n in residential GHG reduction potential abatement (million tons of CO 2 Energy and Transport eqv) -

INC

- highlights from GHG abatement

INC

- highlights from GHG abatement

Marginal cost of proposed measures

INC-Adaptation

-80 -100 -40 -60 20 -20 0 25000 20000 15000 Spring Summer Autumn Winter Annual Time Horizons Impact to water resources 10000 5000 0 electricity generation – alternative scenario

Efforts in mainstreaming…

National Communication to UNFCCC not ONLY a reporting exercise but a tool for mainstreaming and programming as well:    Major findings from INC/TNA have been addressed to the National Energy Strategy that complements NSSED/PRSP Mobilizing resources to funding of priority technologies  Energy efficiency (buildings)   Solar panels –HWS Adaptation project (Drini River Delta) Raise awareness among policy makers on climate change  Kyoto Protocol ratification

National Strategy of Energy (NSE)

Objectives:

Establish of an efficient energy sector from the financial & technical point of view Increase of the security and reliability of the energy supply in general and electricity in particular, in national and regional levels Establish of an effective institutional and regulatory framework Optimization of the supply system with energy sources based on the least cost planning principle and minimal environmental pollution

1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 3600 3400 3200 3000 2800 2600 2400 2200 2000 Ktoe

NES- Energy saving scenario

Energy Savings Pasive Scenario Active Scenario 23% 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 850 800 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 Energy Savings in Agriculture Energy Savings in Transport Energy Savings in Industry Energy Savings in Service Energy Savings in Households

NES- Renewable energy supply

10500 10000 9500 9000 8500 8000 7500 7000 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0

NES-GHG reduction

Reduction of CO2 equivalent Passive Active 4 million CO 2 eqv

NES-investments needed

Year 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT NEED 1. Investment Needed for energy saving in households

[MUSD] 0.00 7.52 8.93 10.2 11.8 13.2 14.8 16.7 18.2 20.1 21.8 23.7 25.5

2.

[MUSD]

Investment Needed for energy saving in service

0.00 9.24 9.89 10.7 11.6 12.5 13.7 15.0 16.2 17.6 19.0 20.6 21.9

3.

[MUSD]

Investment Needed for energy saving in industry

0.00 6.42 6.79 7.34 7.79 8.25 8.69 9.16 9.62 10.1 10.5 11.0 11.8

4.

[MUSD]

Investment Needed for energy saving in transport

0.00 2.20 5.10 8.52 12.4 16.8 21.8 27.4 33.4 39.9 46.8 54.2 62.1

5. Investment Needed for energy saving in agriculture sector

[MUSD]

6.

0.00 0.90 1.80 3.00 4.10 5.40 6.80 8.20 9.70 11.3 13.0 14.8 16.6

RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCE INVESTMENT NEEDED Investment Needed for Penetration of Solar Water Heaters

[MUSD]

7.

0.00 9.27 10.15 11.1 12.1 13.2 14.4 16.0 17.3 18.9 20.4 22.1 23.5

Investment Needed for Rehabilitation/Construction of Small Hydro Power Plants

[MUSD]

TOTAL INVESTMENT NEEDED ENERGY EFICIENCY AND RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES

Investment [MUSD] 0.00 3.00

0 39

4.00 4.80 6.30 7.32 8.44 8.00 10.2 10.4 12.0 12.5 13.4

47 56 66 77 89 100 115 128 144 159 175

Energy Efficiency Law

The aim of this law is to create the legal framework required for the promotion and improvement of the efficient utilization of energy in Albania with a minimal impact to the environment Law addresses:         National Energy Efficiency Policy Objectives of Energy Efficiency Promotion Local Energy Offices Labeling of Electric Appliances Energy Audits Responsibilities of the energy auditor and of persons subject of the audit Licensing of Energy Auditing Energy Efficiency Fund (sources and administration of fund) Activities funded by the Energy Efficiency Fund

The way forward….

Continue with GHG abatement More focus on adaptation issues   Coastal zone Water resources and their impact to hydro electricity generation Public awareness  Engage public sector and civil society Resource mobilization    Energy efficiency Renewable energy CDM

Thank you!