Transcript CH4 in Atmosphere Perspectives on Hydrofracking: Implications for Shale Gas Extraction for New York State A.

CH4 in Atmosphere
Perspectives on Hydrofracking: Implications for
Shale Gas Extraction for New York State
A. R. Ingraffea
Dwight C. Baum Professor
Cornell University
and
Physicians, Scientists, and Engineers for
Healthy Energy, Inc.
University of Rochester
April 10, 2013
1
Unconventional Development of
Gas from Shale Formations:
Myths and Realities Related to Human Health Impacts
• Fracing is a 60-year-old, Well-Proven Technology.
•The use of multi-well pads and cluster drilling reduces surface impacts.
• Fluid Migration from Faulty Wells is a rare phenomenon.
• Natural Gas is a Clean Fossil Fuel.
2
Why Is Shale Gas Development
“Unconventional”?
• Because it requires 4 technologies only recently combined to make
gas production from impermeable shales technically and
economically feasible.
• Directional drilling: needed to access a thin layer of shale with long
laterals.
• High frac fluid volumes: needed to stimulate gas release from many
existing fractures.
• Slickwater: needed to control the amount of power needed to pump
large volumes of frac fluids, at high pressures, quickly, over long
distances, through small diameter casing.
• Multi-well Pads and Cluster Drilling: needed to access as much of
the gas inventory as possible, under constraints of leasing and
capital.
3
High Volume, Slickwater Fracing from
Long Laterals: The Concept
Not to scale
~ 5000 ft
The Lateral, >5000 ft
Cap rock
Shale Layer
Cap rock
~ 100 ft
Pay zone
4
Early
Joints
at
Taughannock
Falls
Gas Producing Shales are Heavily Fractured Naturally
Geneseo-Burket (Devonian black shale)
Taughannock Falls State Park, Trumansburg, N.Y.
Photo Courtesy T. Engelder
5
3D Imaging of the Sub-Surface
From National Geographic, December 2012
6
Targeting the Shale Layer Via Multiple, “Horizontal”
Wells from Clusters of Pads
From Cody Teff, Shell Appalachia, WELL CONSTRUCTION PRACTICES IN THE MARCELLUS
7
Shale Gas Production Must Use Clustered,
Multi-Well Pads and High-Volume Long Laterals
8
Example of Spatially Intense Development: Dallas/Fort Worth
Airport Property, Barnett Shale Play
• 53 pads on 18,076 acres,
30 square miles
• Each red line is a well
• Each red dot is a pad
• Almost complete
coverage
• Patchwork, mostly ideal
units
• One leasor, One developer9
Summary of the Technology:
HVSFLL Is a Recently Developed Process
From NYS SGEIS revised draft, page 5-5, 2011
10
Myth
• Fracing for gas development is a 60-year-old wellproven technology.
Truth
• Unconventional development of gas using highvolume fracing from long laterals is NOT a 60-yearold well-proven technology; it is still being
developed.
Health Impact
• Insufficient time to conduct scientific investigations of
impacts due to process itself and inevitable accidents.
11
Unconventional Development of
Gas from Shale Formations:
Myths and Realities Related to Human Health Impacts
• The use of multi-well pads and cluster drilling
reduces surface impacts.
12
World’s Largest Frac Job, Encana,
Horn River Area, NE British Columbia
16 wells
417 million gallons of water
78,400 tons of sand
8 milllion gallons of fracing chemicals
500 frac intervals
10,000 foot laterals
40,000 hp for fracing pumps
13
Photos courtesy of Bob Donnan
14
Fracing a Multi-Well Pad Is an Intense
Industrial Process, 24/7, 365
Evans City, Pa. N 40°46.196‘ W 80°6.285‘, 1/27/13
Photo courtesy Bob Donnan
15
Pads Will Be Constructed Regardless of Terrain
"DCNR Lease, Tract 100, Loyalsock State Forest, PA
In the large U.S plays, shale gas
development has only just begun,
and it requires a large number of large,
multi-well, clustered pads and
significant ancillary infrastructure
Photos Courtesy
of Bob Donnan
16
Direction of max
horizontal stress
Notice NNW-SSE orientation of
non-square, about 640 acre,
spacing unit. Geology and
leasing control.
An Industrial-Ideal Pad/Well Buildout Scenario
18
Clustering of Pads in Tioga County, PA
19
Clustering of Pads in Tioga County, PA
20
Myth
• The use of multi-well pads and cluster drilling
reduces surface impacts.
Truth
• The use of multi-well pads and cluster drilling
facilitates and prolongs intense industrialization
and leaves a larger, long-term footprint.
Health Impact
• Long term noise, dust, light pollution; NOx
emissions; higher spill probabilities of frac fluid;
venting and accidental emissions of produced
gases.
21
Unconventional Development of
Gas from Shale Formations:
Myths and Realities Related to Human Health Impacts
• Fluid Migration from Faulty Wells is a rare
phenomenon.
22
Gas Is Supposed to Rise
Inside the Production Casing,
Not Outside
VIDEO of
Methane Bubbling
At Well Head
23
Mechanisms of Gas Migration
• Gas Migration Through Cement: percolation during
curing
• Cement Sheath Failure: high temp, high pressure,
perforation
• Improper Cement Design and Placement: poor
chemistry, poor mud cleanup, low cement top
• Casing Failure: Corrosion, joint failure, fracture
• Cross Flow Between Adjacent Wells
From Watson, PAPER 2004-297Petroleum Society’s 5th Canadian International Petroleum Conference
24
From Watson, PAPER 2004-297Petroleum Society’s 5th Canadian International Petroleum Conference
25
“Since the earliest gas wells, uncontrolled
migration of hydrocarbons to the surface has
challenged the oil and gas industry.”
SCP=Sustained Casing Pressure.
Also called sustained annular
pressure in one or more of the
casing annuli.
Brufatto et al., Oilfield Review, Schlumberger, Autumn, 2003
26
Sustained Casing Pressure and Gas
Migration Are Chronic Problems
Watson and Bachu, SPE 106817, 2009.
27
Wellbore Integrity: Recent Operator
Performance in the Pennsylvania Marcellus Play
1,609 wells drilled in 2010.
97 well failures.
6% rate of failure.
50,000 to 100,000
Marcellus
and Utica wells
1,972 wells
drilled in 2011.
expected in NYS.140 well failures.
7.1% rate of failure.
You do the math…
1,346 wells drilled in 2012
120 well failures.
8.9% rate of failure.
Consistent with previous industry
data, and not improving.
28
Bubbling in Muncy Creek, Lycoming County, PA:
Example of Migration of Hydrocarbons
Video Courtesy of Ralph Kisberg, Responsible Drilling Alliance
29
Myth
• Fluid Migration from Faulty Wells is a rare
phenomenon
Truth
• Fluid Migration from Faulty Wells is a wellknown, chronic problem with an expected rate
of occurrence.
Health Impact
• Contamination of USDW with drilling fluid,
frac fluid, released hydrocarbons.
30
Unconventional Development of
Gas from Shale Formations:
Myths and Realities Related to Human Health Impacts
• Natural Gas is a Clean Fossil Fuel.
31
CO2 Concentration in the Atmosphere
Seasonal fluctuation
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
32
Methane Concentration in the Atmosphere:
Historical Record
http://www.ecen.com/eee55/eee55e/growth_of%20methane_concentration_in_atmosphere.htm
33
Measured Methane Concentration
in the Atmosphere: Recent Record
1860
Methane Concentration, ppb
1840
1820
1800
1780
All Data in December of Year
Uncertainty about 10 ppb
1760
1740
1720
1700
1680
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
DATA FROM NOAA: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=MLO&program=ccgg&type=ts
34
Methane Is a Much More Potent
Greenhouse Gas Than Carbon Dioxide
• Up to 33 times more potent over 100 years*
• Up to 105 times more potent over 20 years*
• Therefore, even small leakage rates important:
Each 1% lifetime production leakage from a
well produces about the same climate impact
as burning the methane twice.
*Shindell DT, Faluvegi G, Koch DM, Schmidt GA, Unger N, and Bauer SE (2009).
Improved attribution of climate forcing to emissions. Science 326: 716-718.
35
Methane Is Purposely Vented and
Accidently Leaked,
Upstream/Midstream/Downstream
• During initial frac fluid flow-back period
• Routinely and continuously at the well site
• During liquid unloading
• During gas processing
• During transmission, storage, and distribution
36
Marcellus Well Being “Finished” Outside Dimock, Pa
June, 2011: Major Source of Methane Emission
Photo and FLIR Methane-Tuned Video Courtesy Frank Finan
37
Marcellus Well Being “Finished” Outside Dimock, Pa.
June, 2011: Major Source of Methane Emission
Video
Video courtesy of Frank Finan
38
Upstream+Midstream Methane Emission
Measurements are Coming in Very High
Uinta Basin, Utah:
Up to 9% of total production
Nature 493, 12 (03 January 2013) doi:10.1038/493012a
Denver–Julesburg Basin, Colorado:
2.3% to 7% of total production
Pétron, G. et al. J. Geophys. Res. 117, D04304 (2012)
Note: Howarth, Santoro, Ingraffea predicted
TOTAL (UPSTREAM+MIDSTREAM+DOWNSTREAM)
emission range of 3.6% to 7.9%.
Climatic Change Letters, 2011
39
Downstream Methane Leakage from Aging
Urban Distribution Pipelines: Boston MA
Natural background level is about 1.9 ppm
40
Howarth, Ingraffea, NATURE, 477, 2011
41
Why Is Controlling Methane (CH4) Emission So Important?
Danger Zone
Last Warning Zone
Shindell, et al. Science 335, 183 (2012)
42
Burn-Offs at MarkWest Gas Processing Plant,
Houston, PA: THIS Is Black Carbon
9/18/11
2:03pm
Photos courtesy of Robert Donnan
43
Burn-Offs at MarkWest Gas Processing Plant,
Houston, PA: THIS Is Black Carbon
9/28/11
7:28pm
44
Myth
• Natural Gas is a Clean Fossil Fuel.
Truth
• Over its life-cycle, unconventional natural gas
is likely no cleaner than coal or petroleum,
and conventional gas is comparable to those
other fossil fuels.
Health Impact
• Exacerbation of global climate change; possible
tipping point in 20-30 years.
45
Ithaca JOURNAL,
LAST WEEK!
NO to HVHF, YES to
a Much Better Plan
“Examining the Feasibility of
Converting
New York State’s All Purpose Energy
Infrastructure to One Using Wind, Water,
and Sunlight”
A peer-reviewed journal paper in
Energy Policy, March, 2013, by:
Jacobson, Howarth, Delucchi, Scobie,
Barth, Dvorak, Klevze, Katkhuda,
Miranda, Chowdhury, Jones,
Plano, Ingraffea
46
NO to HVHF, YES to a Much Better Plan
Convert New York State’s (NYS’s) all-purpose -- electricity, transportation,
heating/cooling, industry -- energy infrastructure to one derived entirely from wind,
water, and sunlight (WWS), by 2030.
We the people own the sun. We own the wind. We own the water.
Those fuel costs are $0.00.
NYS’s
2030
all-purpose
end-use to
power
would be
provided by:and Utica Wells;
Or, we
can
have 50,000
100,000
Marcellus
10% onshore
wind pads;
(4020 5-MW turbines)
• 8,000
to 16,000
40% offshore wind (12,700 5-MW turbines)
• 500
to 1,000 compressor stations;
10% concentrated solar (387 100-MW plants)
• Thousands
miles
of50-MW
new pipelines;
10% solar-PVofplants
(828
plants),
• Thousands
incidents
well 5-kW
watersystems)
contamination;
6% residentialofrooftop
PV (~5ofmillion
12% commercial/government
rooftop PV to
(~500,000
systems)
• Increase
New York’s contribution
global100-kW
warming;
5% geothermal
(36 and
100-MW
plants) from pollution;
• Continue
illness
morbidity
0.5% wave (1910 0.75-MW devices)
• Sequester
forever twice the tonnage of the US Navy
1% tidal (2600 1-MW turbines)
in 5.5%
non-recyclable
steel
casing.
hydroelectric (6.6
1300-MW
plants, of which 89% exist).
47
NO to HVHF, YES to a Much Better Plan
The plan would:
• Reduce NYS’s end-use power demand ~37%.
• Stabilize energy prices since fuel costs would be zero.
• Create more jobs than lost because nearly all NYS energy would
now be produced in-state, ~58,000 new, permanent, full-time jobs by
2025.
• Reduce NYS air pollution mortality and its costs by ~4000/yr,
and ~$33 billion/yr (3% of 2010 NYS GDP), respectively, repaying
the 271 GW installed power needed within ~17 y.
• NYS’s own emission decreases would reduce 2050 U.S. climate
costs by ~$3.2 billion/yr.
48
Our Energy Plan for New York State
Jacobson et al., Energy Policy, Feb. 2013
49
MYTH: IT Is Not Windy Enough in NYS
to Make Wind Energy Practical
Wind Capacity Factors at 90-m Hub Height in NYS. Capacity factors of
30% or higher are the most cost-effective for wind energy development.
Jacobson et al., Energy Policy, 2013
50
Germany Sets New Solar Record By Meeting Nearly Half
of Country’s Weekend Power Demand
by Timon Singh, 05/31/12
“Germany fed a whopping 22 gigawatts of solar power per hour into the national grid
last weekend, setting a new record by meeting nearly half of the country’s weekend
power demand. The Renewable Energy Industry (IWR) in Muenster announced that
Saturday’s solar energy generation met nearly 50 percent of the nation’s midday
electricity needs and was equal to 20 nuclear power stations at full capacity.”
MYTH: IT Is Not Windy Enough in NYS
to Make Wind Energy Practical
51
MYTH: WWS Take Use Too Much Space
Jacobson et al., Energy Policy, 2013
52
“There is no time to waste….”
“Natural gas is a delaying tactic…There is no time to waste…
We have to decide whether we are in the business of delaying
bad outcomes or whether we are in the business of preventing
bad outcomes.”
Ken Caldiera, Senior Scientist
Department of Global Ecology,
Carnegie Institution, Stanford, CA
April 15, 2012
53
We Own the Wind, the Sun, the
Water: Their Fuel Cost is Zero.
Wind, water and solar energy will provide a stable, renewable
source of electric power not subject to the same fuel supply
limitations as fossil fuels and nuclear power. Due to the
eventual depletion of coal, oil, natural gas, and uranium
resources, their prices will continue to rise.
We Own the Wind, the Sun, the
Water: They Make Us Energy
Secure and Independent
54
Where Can You
Find Reliable
Information?
http://www.psehealthyenergy.org/
55
Where Can You
Find Reliable
Information?
http://www.earthworksaction.org/oil_and_gas.cfm
56
Thank You for Attending
and Participating Today
57
100% of Electric Capacity Added in U.S. in
January, 2013 Was Renewable
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, the agency that announced that almost
half of all new electricity generating capacity added in the U.S. in 2012 was renewable,
has released its data for the month of January, 2013.
http://www.ferc.gov/legal/staff-reports/2013/jan-energy-infrastructure.pdf
58
Myth: CO2 Emissions Down Because of
Natural Gas Use
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/02/15/natural-gas-isnt-the-only-reason-u-s-carbonemissions-are-plummeting/
59
Why Did CO2 Emissions Decrease?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/02/15/natural-gas-isnt-the-only-reason-u-s-carbonemissions-are-plummeting/
60
Why Did the Carbon Intensity of Energy Decrease?
New Renewables Were Major
Source of Reduction, not Natural Gas
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/02/15/natural-gas-isnt-the-only-reason-u-s-carbonemissions-are-plummeting/
61
62
Maximum “well-to-wheels” (WTW) natural gas leak rate versus
number of years needed to achieve net climate benefit for
electricity generation: coal vs. natural gas
8.0
Maximum WTW Gas Leak, %
Service Life, Alvarez et al., 2012
7.0
Service Life, Present Study, 2012
EPA , 2009 U.S. gas mix
6.0
EPA range, estimated (conventional and shale)
Petron et al. 2012, measured best estimate
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1
10
20
30
40
50
Years to Net Climate Benefit
63
64
Charlie Rose Talks to ExxonMobil's Rex Tillerson
By Charlie Rose on March 07, 2013 Biz Week
Whether it’s Alaska or offshore or wherever it may be, is your philosophy
“Drill, baby, drill!”?
No. My philosophy is to make money. If I can drill and make money, then
that’s what I want to do. For us, it’s about making quality investments for our
shareholders. And it’s not a quality investment if you can’t manage the risk
around it.
How much longer do you think we’ll be burning fossil fuels?
When coal came into the picture, it took about 50 or 60 years to displace
timber. Then crude oil was found, and it took 60, 70 years, and then
natural gas. So it takes 100 years or more for some new breakthrough in
energy to become the dominant source. Most people have difficulty
coming to grips with the sheer enormity of energy consumption. If we look
at our energy outlook, at things like renewable wind, solar, biofuels, we
have those sources over the next 30 years growing 700 to 800 percent. But
in the year 2040, they’ll supply just 1 percent.
65
Location of Current Large-Scale Wind Farms in the U.S.
http://www.thewindpower.net/country_maps_en_4_usa.php
66
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
February 12, 2013 | PERMALINK
Contact: Patrick Creighton; Travis Windle
@MarcellusGas | 412.706.5160
“According to a survey of completions performed by the MSC members
in 2011, more than 80 percent of completions were either produced to a
pipeline or shut-in while awaiting the installation of a pipeline. The
remaining completions were flared, with only one well being vented.
This illustrates that MSC members companies are in full compliance
with EPA’s “reduced emission completions” guidance before the agency
mandated this practice last year and set to go into effect in 2015.”
Additionally, and as recently noted by EPA, nationwide air emissions are
down 8 percent; and across the Mid-Atlantic region, which include Marcellus
Shale-producing states, emissions are down 13.8 percent. Importantly, this
significant improvement in air quality coincides with increased development
and the expanded use of natural gas, evidencing further the clear
environmental benefits of this abundant, clean-burning resource.
67
Observed Extent of Arctic Sea Ice:
30-Year Average and 2012
30-year
30-year
average
average
From NASA
68
Putting My $$ Where My Mouth Is
http://www.blackoakwindny.com/
69
Black Oak Wind Farm
Ithaca, NY: Online 2014
70