Transcript Update on the Demography of London LSE Lent Seminar Series 2013 4th March 2013 Ms Baljit Bains.

Update on the Demography of London
LSE Lent Seminar Series 2013
4th March 2013
Ms Baljit Bains
Outline
 Update on Demographic trends in London
 Outline of current estimates and projections
 2011 Census Snapshot
London Births 1965 to 2010
150,000
140,000
130,000
Births
120,000
110,000
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
Year
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Fertility rates 2000/2 to 2008/10
0.14
2000-02
2008-10
0.12
0.08
0.06
0.04
Age
47
45
43
41
39
37
35
33
31
29
27
25
23
21
19
17
0.00
49 and over
0.02
15 and under
Fertility rate
0.10
Top boroughs – birth increase/decrease
 Top 3 boroughs (% increase):
– Croydon: 7.0% or 371 births
– Southwark: 6.8% or 329 births
– Brent: 6.1% or 310 births
 Top 3 boroughs (% decrease):
– Richmond upon Thames: -2.9% or -88 births
– Hackney: -2.1% or -95 births
– Camden: -1.7% or -53 births
London: Internal migration
UK: International migration
700
500
400
300
200
100
0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
No. of people (thousands)
600
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Rolling years to end each quarter
In
Out
Net
2009
2010
2011
2012
NINo registrations: Bulgaria and Romania
45
40
No. of people (thousands)
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Financial year
London
UK
2009
2010
2011
2012
Population Estimates and Projections
ONS projections released over the last two years has led to
significant upwards revisions of projected future populations.
1) Changes to international migration methodology
ONS 2010 Based Sub National Population Projections (SNPP)
2) 2011 Census population – 8.17 million
ONS 2011 Based Interim SNPP
2011 Census Average Household Size increase
Thousands
Estimates and Projections 2001-2011
8,400
8,300
8,200
8,100
8,000
Population
7,900
7,800
7,700
7,600
7,500
7,400
2008-based SNPP
7,300
GLA 2011rnd SHLAA
7,200
Indicative MYE/2010-based SNPP
Official MYE
7,100
7,000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Year
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Millions
2012 Round demographic projections:
Greater London
11.0
10.5
10.0
Total population
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
ONS 2008 based SNPP (w MYE to 2008)
7.5
ONS 2010 based SNPP (w Indicative MYE 2006 to 2010)
ONS 2011 based SNPP
7.0
GLA 2011 round SHLAA
6.5
GLA 2012 round Trend
GLA 2012 round SHLAA
6.0
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
Year
2026
2031
2036
2041
2010 SNPP migration assumptions
350000
300000
250000
200000
Number
150000
Out
In
100000
Net
50000
0
2001
2006
2011
2016
-50000
-100000
-150000
Age
2021
2026
2031
2010 SNPP migration assumptions
350000
300000
250000
200000
Number
150000
Out
100000
Crash
50000
0
2001
In
2006
2011
Net
2016
-50000
-100000
-150000
Age
2021
2026
2031
Where were the problems…..
– 2001 Census enumeration
Likely underestimation of the London population and then subsequent midyear estimates (MYE). Any underestimate in the 2001 baseline that both ONS
and the GLA utilised would have carried through into subsequent years. The
extent of the undercount may prove impossible to estimate with any accuracy.
– Underestimation of international inflows
The methodology ONS used for assigning international in-migrants between
local authorities underestimated for London as a whole.
– Underestimation of average household size by government sources
Household formation rates from DCLG household projections assumed
declining average household size.
Forecasts: Out with the old…
 Average Household Size future trends
– Rethink declining AHS trend particularly in the short term
 More sophisticated trend based assumptions
– Rethink fertility scenarios
– Rethink migration scenarios
(Possible) household size scenarios
3.0
Census
2.9
2011rnd projection
High
Medium
Average Household Size
2.8
Low
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.2
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
Year
2011
2021
2031
(Possible) migration scenario
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
Flow
150,000
100,000
50,000
Crash
Recovery
Out
In
Net
0
2001
2006
2011
2016
-50,000
-100,000
-150,000
Year
2021
2026
2031
2011 Census: London




Population: 8.17 million usual residents
Households: 3.27million, an increase of 8.3% since 2001.
Over 36% born outside the UK (cf 27% in 2001)
Four London boroughs where less than half population is
UK born
–
–
–
–
Brent (44.9 per cent),
Newham (46.3 per cent),
Westminster (46.7 per cent) and
Kensington & Chelsea (48.4 per cent)
Country of Birth
Migrants: Less than 2 years length of stay
(%)
Migrants: More than 10 years length of
stay (%)
Housing Tenure
Percentage change 2001 to 2011:
Owns with a mortgage or loan
Housing in London
 In London between 2001 and 2011 the number of houses and bungalows rose by
1.8 per cent (28,700) while the number of flats increased by 18.6 per cent
(277,500).
 The number of dwellings in Tower Hamlets increased by nearly 33 % in the same
period 2001- 2011. The largest proportional increase in London
 London is by far the most over-crowded region in England & Wales with 11.6 per
cent of households having too few bedrooms for their occupants.
 London Boroughs make up 19 of the top 20 most overcrowded local authorities in
England & Wales.
 The highest being Newham (25.4 per cent), Brent (18 per cent) and Tower
Hamlets (16.8 per cent.
Religion
Languages in London
 74 per cent of households in London contain occupants who all have English as
their main language, compared to 91 per cent nationally.
 22.1 per cent of Londoners list a language other than English as their main
language, a total of 1.73 million people
 41.6 per cent of non-English speakers in England & Wales live in London
 Polish is the main language of 147,800 of the capital’s residents
 Bengali is the most spoken Asian language in London while Somali is the most
spoken African language
 In Newham 41.4 per cent of residents report a language other than English as
their main language
 In Havering just 4.6 per cent list a language other than English
 9 of the top 10 most linguistically diverse local authorities in England & Wales are
in London
Main non-English Languages in London
Proportion of Households where English is
not the main language of occupants
Limiting Long-term Illness
Percentage Change 2001 - 2011
Next releases of Census data
 Starting May 2013 - Detailed Characteristics
(multivariate) at local authority level, followed
by MSOA and Ward geographies,
 Local Characteristics data will now be Release 4
(summer).
 More details of the exact timings of these releases are
expected in April.
Follow up
 http://data.london.gov.uk/census/secondrelease
 Contact details:
email: [email protected]
Tel: 07554018664