Transcript The measures MSD, MAD and MAPE: 1 nMSD    yt  yˆ t  n t 1 Mean Squared Deviation 1 n MAD.

The measures MSD, MAD and MAPE:
1 n
2
MSD    yt  yˆ t 
n t 1
Mean Squared Deviation
1 n
MAD   yt  yˆ t
n t 1
Mean Absolute Deviation
MAPE 
n
1

n t 1
yt  yˆ t
100
yt
Comparable with MSE in regression
models, but its value has another scale
than the observations
Comparable with the square root of
MSE, but less sensible to outliers. Has
the same scale as the observations.
Mean Absolute Percentage Error
Expresses the mean absolute deviation
in percentages of the level. Suitable for
multiplicative models.
n is the number of time points, where both the original observation yt and the
predicted observation yˆt exist
Modern methods
The classical approach:
Method
Pros
Cons
Time series regression
• Easy to implement
• Fairly easy to interpret
• Covariates may be
added (normalization)
• Inference is possible
(though sometimes
questionable)
• Static
• Normal-based inference
not generally reliable
• Cyclic component hard
to estimate
Decomposition
• Easy to interpret
• Possible to have
dynamic seasonal effects
• Cyclic components can
be estimated
• Descriptive (no
inference per def)
• Static in trend
Explanation to the static behaviour:
The classical approach assumes all components except the irregular ones
(i.e. t and IRt ) to be deterministic, i.e. fixed functions or constants
To overcome this problem, all components should be allowed to be
stochastic, i.e. be random variates.
A time series yt should from a statistical point of view be treated as a
stochastic process.
We will interchangeably use the terms time series and process
depending on the situation.
Stationary and non-stationary time series
3000
Non-stationary
Stationary
20
10
2000
1000
0
Index
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90 100
Index
Characteristics for a stationary time series:
• Constant mean
• Constant variance
 A time series with trend is non-stationary!
100
200
300
Box-Jenkins models
A stationary times series can be modelled on basis of the serial
correlations in it.
A non-stationary time series can be transformed into a stationary time
series, modelled and back-transformed to original scale (e.g. for
purposes of forecasting)
ARIMA – models
This part has
to do with the
transformation
Auto Regressive,
Integrated,
Moving Average
These parts can
be modelled on a
stationary series
Different types of transformation
1. From a series with linear trend to a series with no trend:
First-order differences zt = yt – yt – 1
MTB > diff c1 c2
20
15
10
5
0
Note that the differences series varies around zero.
Variable
linear trend
no trend
2. From a series with quadratic trend to a series with no trend:
Second-order differences
wt = zt – zt – 1 = (yt – yt – 1) – (yt – 1 – yt – 2) = yt – 2yt – 1 + yt – 2
MTB > diff 2 c3 c4
20
15
10
5
0
Variable
quadratic trend
no trend 2
3. From a series with non-constant variance (heteroscedastic) to a series with
constant variance (homoscedastic):
Box-Cox transformations (per def 1964)
  yt     1

for   0 and yt    0
g  yt   


 ln yt    for   0 and yt    0
Practically  is chosen so that yt +  is always > 0
Simpler form: If we know that yt is always > 0 (as is the usual case for
measurements)
 yt
4
 yt

g  yt    ln yt
1 y
t

 1 yt
if modest heteroscedasticity
-"if pronounced heteroscedasticity
if heavy heteroscedasticity
if extreme heteroscedasticity
The log transform (ln yt ) usually also makes the data ”more” normally distributed
Example: Application of root (yt ) and log (ln yt ) transforms
25
20
15
10
5
0
Variable
original
root
log
AR-models (for stationary time series)
Consider the model
yt = δ + ·yt –1 + at
with {at } i.i.d with zero mean and constant variance = σ2
and where δ (delta) and  (phi) are (unknown) parameters
Set δ = 0 by sake of simplicity  E(yt ) = 0
Let R(k) = Cov(yt,yt-k ) = Cov(yt,yt+k ) = E(yt ·yt-k ) = E(yt ·yt+k )
 R(0) = Var(yt) assumed to be constant
Now:
R(0) = E(yt ·yt ) = E(yt ·( ·yt-1 + at ) =  · E(yt ·yt-1 ) + E(yt ·at ) =
=  ·R(1) + E(( ·yt-1 + at ) ·at ) =  ·R(1) +  · E(yt-1 ·at ) + E(at ·at )=
=  ·R(1) + 0 + σ2
(for at is independent of yt-1 )
R(1) = E(yt ·yt+1 ) = E(yt ·( ·yt + at+1 ) =  · E(yt ·yt ) + E(yt ·at+1 ) =
=  ·R(0) + 0
(for at+1 is independent of yt )
R(2) = E(yt ·yt+2 ) = E(yt ·( ·yt+1 + at+2 ) =  · E(yt ·yt+1 ) +
+ E(yt ·at+2 ) =  ·R(1) + 0
(for at+1 is independent of yt )

R(0) =  ·R(1) + σ2
R(1) =  ·R(0)
Yule-Walker equations
R(2) =  ·R(1)
…
 R(k ) =  ·R(k – 1) =…=  k·R(0)
R(0) =  2 ·R(0) + σ2
2
R(0) 
1 2

Note that for R(0) to become positive and finite (which we require
from a variance) the following must hold:
 1  1
2
This in effect the condition for an AR(1)-process to be weakly
stationary
Note now that
Corr( yt , yt k )   k 
 k 
 k  R(0)
R(0)
Cov( yt , yt k )
R( k )
R( k )


Var( yt ) Var( yt k )
R(0)  R(0) R(0)
k
ρk is called the Autocorrelation function (ACF) of yt
”Auto” because it gives correlations within the same time series.
For pairs of different time series one can define the Cross correlation
function which gives correlations at different lags between series.
By studying the ACF it might be possible to identify the
approximate magnitude of 
Examples:
ACF for AR(1), phi=0.1
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
12
13
14
15
k
ACF for AR(1), phi=0.3
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
k
9
10
11
ACF for AR(1), phi=0.5
ACF for AR(1), phi=0.8
1
1
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
1
2
3
4
5
6
12
13
14
15
ACF for AR(1), phi=0.99
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
ACF for AR(1), phi=-0.5
ACF for AR(1), phi=-0.1
1
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1
1
2
3
4
5
6
ACF for AR(1), phi=-0.8
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14 15
The look of an ACF can be similar for different kinds of time series,
e.g. the ACF for an AR(1) with  = 0.3 could be approximately the
same as the ACF for an Auto-regressive time series of higher order
than 1 (we will discuss higher order AR-models later)
To do a less ambiguous identification we need another statistic:
The Partial Autocorrelation function (PACF):
υk = Corr (yt ,yt-k | yt-k+1, yt-k+2 ,…, yt-1 )
i.e. the conditional correlation between yt and yt-k given all
observations in-between.
Note that –1  υk  1
A concept sometimes hard to interpret, but it can be shown that
for AR(1)-models with  positive the look of the PACF is
1.00
0.00
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
k
and for AR(1)-models with  negative the look of the PACF is
1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
-1
k
9
10
11 12 13 14 15
Assume now that we have a sample y1, y2,…, yn from a time series
assumed to follow an AR(1)-model.
Example:
Monthly exchange rates
DKK/USD 1991-1998
10
8
6
4
2
0
The ACF and the PACF can be estimated from data by their sample
counterparts:
Sample Autocorrelation function (SAC):
nk
rk 
(y
t 1
t
 y )( yt  k  y )
if n large, otherwise a scaling
n
2
(
y

y
)
 t
might be needed
t 1
Sample Partial Autocorrelation function (SPAC)
Complicated structure, so not shown here
The variance function of these two estimators can also be estimated
 Opportunity to test
H0: k = 0
vs.
Ha: k  0
H0: k = 0
vs.
Ha: k  0
or
for a particular value of k.
Estimated sample functions are usually plotted together with critical
limits based on estimated variances.
Example (cont) DKK/USD exchange:
SAC:
SPAC:
Critical
limits
Ignoring all bars within the red limits, we would identify the series as
being an AR(1) with positive .
The value of  is approximately 0.9 (ordinate of first bar in SAC plot
and in SPAC plot)
Higher-order AR-models
AR(2):
yt    1 yt 1  2 yt 2  at
yt    2 yt 2  at
AR(3):
or
yt-2 must be present
yt    1 yt 1  2 yt 2  3 yt 3  at
or other combinations with  3 yt-3
AR(p):
yt    1 yt 1  ...  p yt  p  at
i.e. different combinations with  p yt-p
Stationarity conditions:
For p > 2, difficult to express on closed form.
For p = 2:
yt    1 yt 1  2 yt 2  at
The values of 1 and 2 must lie within the blue triangle in the figure below:
Typical patterns of ACF and PACF functions for higher order
stationary AR-models (AR( p )):
ACF: Similar pattern as for AR(1), i.e. (exponentially) decreasing
bars, (most often) positive for  1 positive and alternating for 1
negative.
PACF: The first p values of k are non-zero with decreasing
magnitude. The rest are all zero (cut-off point at p )
(Most often) all positive if  1 positive and alternating if  1
negative
Examples:
AR(2),  1 positive:
PACF
ACF
1
1
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
AR(5),  1 negative:
8
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15
2
3
4
5
6
7
ACF
9 10 11 12 13 14 15
PACF
1
1
0
0
1
-1
8
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15
-1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15