Transcript Measuring re-exports Jasper Roos CBS / Statistics Netherlands Unit International trade Re-exports vs domestic exports Difference in economic impact Role: Re-exports – Only distribution and / or.

Measuring re-exports
Jasper Roos
CBS / Statistics Netherlands
Unit International trade
1
Re-exports vs domestic exports
Difference in economic impact
Role:
Re-exports
– Only distribution and / or trade
Exports from domestic production
– Also production
2
Re-exports
Ways to define re-exports
–
–
–
–
Origin criteria
Value added
Change of goods - Description
Change of goods - Change of product code
Decision:
Change on 6-digit Harmonized System-code ?
=> no re-exports
3
Estimating re-exports (1)
Supply and use tables
P + M = C + I + IC + E
4
Estimating re-exports (1)
Supply and use tables
P + M = C + I + IC + E
P + M = C + I + IC + Eimport + Eprod.
5
Estimating re-exports (2)
Statistical procedure
Statistical procedure:
– Additional variable in the Netherlands
– Specification of the trade flow
Gives underestimation
– Unfamiliarity + discussion about the definition
of re-exports
– Companies sometimes are unable to tell the
origin
– No information for countries outside EU
(customs)
6
Estimating re-exports (3)
Comparison of import and export
Value of exports
---------------------- < 2
Value of imports
7
Estimating re-exports (3)
Comparison of import and export
Value of exports
---------------------- < 2
Value of imports
Else
=> re-exports
=> some exports from domestic production
Comparison by
– 6-digit HS-code
– Company (preferable enterprise-group level)
8
Example (1)
Time period
imports
exports
Estimated
re-exports
X
9
Example (1)
Time period
X
imports
exports
€ 900
€ 300
Estimated
re-exports
10
Example (1)
Time period
X
imports
exports
Estimated
re-exports
€ 900
€ 300
€ 300
11
Example (2)
Time period
imports
exports
Estimated
re-exports
Y
12
Example (2)
Time period
Y
imports
exports
€0
€ 200
Estimated
re-exports
13
Example (2)
Time period
Y
imports
exports
Estimated
re-exports
€0
€ 200
€0
14
Example (3)
Time period
imports
exports
Estimated
re-exports
Z
15
Example (3)
Time period
Z
imports
exports
€ 100
€ 500
Estimated
re-exports
16
Example (3)
Time period
Z
imports
exports
Estimated
re-exports
€ 100
€ 500
€ 40
17
Example (4)
Time period
imports
exports
Estimated
re-exports
April
€ 900
€ 300
€ 300
May
€0
€ 200
€0
June
€ 100
€ 500
€ 40
2nd quarter
18
Example (4)
Time period
imports
exports
Estimated
re-exports
April
€ 900
€ 300
€ 300
May
€0
€ 200
€0
June
€ 100
€ 500
€ 40
+
+
+
€ 1000
€ 1000
€ 340 (?)
2nd quarter
19
Enhancements of the model
Enhancements:
– Profiling of the largest companies
– Knowlegde of production structure
– Statistical procedure
20
Results Exported goods in 2005
Food, drink and tobacco
Raw materials
Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials
Chemical products
Machinery and transportation equipment
Other manufactured goods
0
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
(in billion euro)
Exports from domestic production
Re-exports
21
Results Destination of the exports in 2005
Germany
Belgium
France
United Kingdom
Rest of EU15
Rest of Europe
United States
China and Hong-Kong
Rest of S.E. Asia
Rest of the World
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Billion Euro
Domestic exports
Re-exports
22
Results Origin of the re-exports in 2005
Germany
Belgium
France
United Kingdom
Rest of EU15
Rest of Europe
United States
China and Hong-Kong
Rest of S.E. Asia
Rest of the World
23
Questions ?
24