Transcript Population Structure and Population Development in Europe Franz Rothenbacher Übung für Fortgeschrittene „Empirisch-vergleichende Sozialstrukturstrukturanalyse Europas“ 1. First and second demographic transition 2.

Population Structure
and Population
Development
in Europe
Franz Rothenbacher
Übung für Fortgeschrittene
„Empirisch-vergleichende Sozialstrukturstrukturanalyse
Europas“
2006
1. First and second demographic transition
2. Mortality
3. Fertility
4. Nuptiality
5. Divortiality
6. Remarriages
7. Population growth and migration
8. Population ageing
9. Glossary
10. Literature
1. First and second demographic transition
•
European average: 21 countries, whole Western Europe incl. Poland, Czechoslovakia and
Hungary
•
19th century: Fertility in Germany higher than in Europe
•
Interwar period: first strong birth decline; population policy of the Third Empire
•
Since World War II: second demographic transition; mainly cohort and behavioural effects
of the persons born in the interwar period
•
Post 1970: birth decline below replacement level of the population
•
GDR: population surplus in the 1950s and 1960s; decline ca. 1975; reincrease due to family
policies in the 1980s; since 1990 „demographic revolution“ (W. Zapf) with strong birth
decline
•
France: exception to the model of the demographic transition; weak population growth
during the 19th century; only family policy legislation in 1946 caused suffficient number of
births
50
50
45
45
40
40
Germ an y (b irth s )
35
35
E u rop e (b irth s )
30
30
25
25
E u rop e (d eath s )
20
20
15
15
10
10
Germ an y (d eath s )
5
0
1850
5
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
0
1990
40
40
35
E u rop e (b irth s )
35
GDR (b irth s )
30
30
25
25
E u rop e (d eath s )
20
20
GDR (d eath s )
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
0
1990
40
40
E u rop e (b irth s )
35
35
30
30
25
25
Fran ce (b irth s )
20
20
Fran ce (d eath s )
15
15
10
10
E u rop e (d eath s )
5
0
1850
5
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
0
1990
2. Mortality
•
Long-term decline in infant mortality main cause of increase in life expectancy
•
Fight against deaths of mothers at birth-giving increased life expectancy of females
•
Since the 19th century mortality surplus of men increases; nevertheless divergence
between sexes is slowing down due to slower improvements for women
•
Most recent development: large gains in life expectancy for the oldest population
•
In international comparison Germany is in the middle field with respect to life
expectancy despite high health expenditures; Sweden is at the top in Europe with the
best health status
•
Life expectancy in the GDR and FRG more or less at the same level
Life expectancy, West Germany 1949/51-1996/98
Further life expectancy in years
90
1949-1951 Men
80
1949-1951 Women
70
1960-1962 Men
60
1960-1962 Women
1970-1972 Men
50
1970-1972 Women
40
1980-1982 Men
30
1980-1982 Women
20
1990-1992 Men
1990-1992 Women
10
1996-1998 Men
0
1996-1998 Women
Age 0
Age 30
Age 60
Life expectancy, East Germany 1952-1996/98
Further life expectancy in years
90
1952 Men
80
1952 Women
70
1960 Men
60
1960 Women
1970 Men
50
1970 Women
40
1980 Men
30
1980 Women
20
1988-1989 Men
1988-1989 Women
10
1996-1998 Men
0
Age 0
Age 30
Age 60
1996-1998 Women
3. Fertility
•
Legitimate fertility in Germany during the 19th centure above the European average
•
During the interwar period legitimate fertility was below the European average
•
During the after-war period legitimate fertility below the European average as well
•
The legitime fertility in the GDR was lower than in the FRG; higher importance of the
illegitimate fertility
•
The illegitimate fertility in Germany was always high until the decline during the second
demographic transition caused by the declining age at marriage; reincrease in the 1970s;
deinstitutionalization of marriage
•
In the FRG illegitimate fertility below the European average, in the GDR strongly above
the European average; similarity to Scandinavia
•
Illegitimacy-/legitimacy ratio shows the weight of illegitimacy in relationship to
legitimacy
Legitimacy rate, Germany, Federal Republic of Germany,
German Democratic Republic, and Europea
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
Germany
20
20
Europe
10
FRG
FRG
GDR
GDR
0
1850
10
0
1860
1870
a
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
Live births within marriage per 100 married women 15-44; moving averages.
Source: Eurodata.
1980
1990
Illegitimate births rate, Germany (Empire and Federal Republic)
18,0
16,0
14,0
12,0
Illegitimate births, % of all
live births
10,0
8,0
6,0
4,0
2,0
1987
1979
1971
1963
1955
1947
1939
1931
1923
1915
1907
1899
1891
1883
1875
1867
0,0
Illegitimate birth rate, Prussia and Germany (Federal Republic of)
18,0
16,0
14,0
12,0
Illegitimate births, % of
all live births
10,0
8,0
6,0
4,0
1984
1970
1956
1942
1928
1914
1900
1886
1872
1858
1844
1830
1816
2,0
0,0
Illegitimacy rate, Germany, Federal Republic of Germany,
German Democratic Republic, and Europea
60
60
50
50
40
40
GDR
30
30
Germany
20
20
10
10
Europe
FRG
0
1850
0
1860
a
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
Live births out of wedlock per 1,000 unmarried women 15–44; moving averages.
Source: Eurodata.
1980
1990
Illegitimacy/legitimacy ratio, Germany, Federal Republic of Germany,
German Democratic Republic, and Europea
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
GDR
30
20
30
20
Germany
10
10
FRG
Europe
0
1850
0
1860
1870
1880
1890
a
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
Illegitimacy rate / legitimacy rate x 100.
Source: Eurodata.
1960
1970
1980
1990
4. Nuptiality
•
Nuptiality in Germany during the 19th century and during the interwar period above the
European average
•
In the post-war period in the FRG nuptiality was high during the second demographic
transition; afterwards marriage as an institution lost some importance; factors among
others: rising age at marriage
•
The celibacy rate in Germany was always high. John Hajnal‘s „European Marriage Pattern„
•
The legitimacy rate only declined during the post World War II period with the „marriage
boom“ of the 1960s
•
Since that time reincrease of the celibacy rate
•
Mean age at marriage in Germany was always high; exception: decline during the 1960s
•
In the GDR the mean age at marriage and the mean age of women at first birth was strongly
lower than in the FRG
Marriage rate, Germany, Federal Republic of Germany,
German Democratic Republic, and Europea
90
90
80
80
GDR
70
70
Germany
60
60
50
50
Europe
40
40
30
FRG
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
1850
1860
a
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
Number of persons marrying per 1,000 unmarried population 15 and over; moving averages.
Source: Eurodata.
1990
Proportion married, Germany (Empire and
Federal Republic)
100
90
Proportion married 35-45
males
80
Proportion married 35-45
females
70
1987
1979
1971
1963
1955
1947
1939
1931
1923
1915
1907
1899
1891
1883
1875
1867
60
Celibacy rate (proportion of women aged 45-54 never married)
45,00
40,00
35,00
DK
30,00
25,00
20,00
15,00
10,00
5,00
18
50
18
61
18
72
18
83
18
94
19
05
19
16
19
27
19
38
19
49
19
60
19
71
19
82
19
93
0,00
SF
N
S
EW
IRL
Germany (Empire and Federal Republic)
30
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
18
67
18
76
18
85
18
94
19
03
19
12
19
21
19
30
19
39
19
48
19
57
19
66
19
75
19
84
20
Mean age at first marriage
males
Mean age at first marriage
females
Mean age at all marriages, Prussia and Germany (Federal Republic)
34,0
32,0
28,0
Mean age at all
marriages males
26,0
Mean age at all
marriages females
24,0
22,0
20,0
18
67
18
78
18
89
19
00
19
11
19
22
19
33
19
44
19
55
19
66
19
77
19
88
Years
30,0
Federal Republic of Germany, German Democratic Republic, and Europe
Age at first marriage
Mother’s age at childbirth
30
30
29
28
27
29
Europe
(all births)
FRG (men)
27
Europe (men)
26
25
28
FRG (all births)
26
FRG (first birth)
25
GDR (men)
GDR
(all births)
Europe
(first birth)
24
23
FRG
(women)
22
Europe
(women)
23
GDR (first birth)
22
GDR (women)
21
21
20
1960
24
20
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1960
Source: Eurodata.
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
5. Divortiality
•
Long-term logistic growth of divorces to an upper limit
•
In Western Germany influence of the reform of the divorce law of 1977: principle of
marriage breakdown introduced („incidence“)
•
Divorces in Germany since the 19th century were more frequent than in the European
average
•
In the GDR divorces were very much more frequent than in the FRG
•
Consequences of the increase in divorces: increase of lone parents
•
In the 1990s saturation of the divorce rate
Divorces rate, Prussia and Germany (Federal Republic of)
100
90
80
70
60
Divorces per 10,000
existing marriages
50
40
30
20
10
1984
1970
1956
1942
1928
1914
1900
1886
1872
1858
1844
1830
1816
0
Divorce rate, Germany (Empire and Federal Republic)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
18
67
18
76
18
85
18
94
19
03
19
12
19
21
19
30
19
39
19
48
19
57
19
66
19
75
19
84
0
Divorces per 10,000 existing
marriages
Divorce rate, Germany, Federal Republic of Germany,
German Democratic Republic, and Europea
140
140
120
120
GDR
100
100
80
80
60
60
FRG
40
40
Germany
20
20
Europe
0
0
1850 1860
a
1870 1880
1890
1900
1910
1920 1930
1940
1950
1960 1970
1980 1990
Number of persons divorcing per 10,000 married population 15 and over; moving averages.
Source: Eurodata.
Couples with children as % of all families with children
100,0
90,0
80,0
70,0
60,0
% 50,0
40,0
30,0
20,0
10,0
0,0
1981
1991
B
DK
D
GR
E
F
IRL
I
L
NL
P
UK
SF
N
S
CH USA CND
Single men with children as % of all families with children
30,0
25,0
20,0
1981
% 15,0
1991
10,0
5,0
0,0
B
DK
D
GR
E
F
IRL
I
L
NL
P
UK
SF
N
S
CH USA CND
ingle women with children as % of all families with children
30,0
25,0
20,0
1981
% 15,0
1991
10,0
5,0
0,0
B
DK
D
GR
E
F
IRL
I
L
NL
P
UK
SF
N
S
CH USA CND
6. Remarriages
Widowed persons:
•
Long-term decrease of remarriages of widowed persons
•
Cause: increase in life expectancy
•
Remarriages by men constantly more frequent than remarriages by women
Divorced persons:
•
Remarriages of divorced persons increased until 1945; since that time remarriages
decline
•
The chances of a remarriage are higher for men compared to women
•
In international comparison the remarriage rate is high in those countries where there
are few divorces: indicator for the social importance of the institution of marriage
Remarriage rate of widowed women/men, Prussia and Federal
Republic of Germany 1867-1987
140,0
120,0
100,0
80,0
60,0
40,0
20,0
0,0
1867
1877
1887
1897
1907
1917
Remarriage rate widowed men
1927
1937
1947
1957
1967
Remarriage rate widowed women
1977
1987
Remarriage rate of divorced women/men, Prussia and Federal
Republic of Germany 1867-1987
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1867
1877
1887
1897
1907
1917
Remarriage rate divorced men
1927
1937
1947
1957
1967
Remarriage rate divorced women
1977
1987
Remarriage rate of divorced women/men and Crude Divorce
Rate 1990/91
180
3,5
160
3
140
2,5
120
2
100
80
1,5
60
1
40
0,5
20
0
0
SF
N
S
DK
F
E
A
NL
CH
Remarriage rate divorced men
B
D
UK
L
I
GR
P
IRL
Remarriage rate divorced women
Crude Divorce Rate (CDR)
Remarriage rate of divorced women/men and Total Divorce
Rate 1990/91
180
0,6
160
0,5
140
120
0,4
100
0,3
80
60
0,2
40
0,1
20
0
0
SF
N
S
DK
F
E
A
NL
Remarriage rate divorced men
Total Divorce Rate (TDR)
CH
B
D
UK
L
I
GR
P
Remarriage rate divorced women
IRL
7. Population growth and migration
FRG:
•
Population gains by positive net migration; until the 1960s mainly from the GDR
•
During the 1960s guest workers; in the 1970er employment stop for guest workers; in the
beginning of the 1980s asylum seekers; since 1990 strong immigration from the former
GDR
GDR:
•
Zero population growth or even negative population growth, mainly caused by strong
emigration; opposite development to West Germany
•
Strong emigration after the reunification of 1990
Population growth and net migration, West Germany 1945-1995
50
40
20
10
0
1945
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
-10
Natural population growth rate
Net migration rate
Population growth and net migration, East Germany 1945-1995
Population growth rate
60
50
40
30
per 1,000
per 1,000
30
20
10
0
-10
1945
1955
1965
1975
1985
-20
-30
-40
Natural population growth rate
Net migration rate
Population growth rate
1995
8. Ageing of the population
•
Sexual proportion of widowed persons aged 65+ is constantly increasing („female
surplus“)
•
Ageing of the population: from the population pyramid to the population bell
•
Change of the population by marital status caused by late age at marriage, frequent
divorces and „surplus“ of widowed women
•
In the GDR from the beginning big problems with a balanced age structure:
•
-
Emigration of the „young“ and the men
-
Small immigration
-
Strong fluctuations of the birth frequency
-
„Demographic revolution“ since the 1990s (W. Zapf)
Consequence: in future strong ageing of the population in the new Federal States
respectively their effects on the total German population
Sexual proportion widowed 65+, Germany (Empire and Federal Republic)
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
18
67
18
76
18
85
18
94
19
03
19
12
19
21
19
30
19
39
19
48
19
57
19
66
19
75
19
84
0
Sexual proportion widowed
65+
Population by age, sex and marital status
(per 10,000 of total population)
age group
Germany, 1880
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
widowed or divorced
married
single
800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100
male
0
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
female
Population by age, sex and marital status (per 10.000 of total population)
age group
East Germany , 1946
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
widowed
divorced
married
single
800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100
0
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
male
female
Population by age, sex and marital status (per 10.000 of total population)
age group
East Germany , 2000
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
widowed
divorced
married
single
800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100
male
0
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
female
Population by age, sex and marital status (per 10.000 of total population)
age group
West Germany, 1950
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
widowed
divorced
married
single
800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100
0
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
male
female
Population by age, sex and marital status (per 10.000 of total population)
age group
West Germany, 2000
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
widowed
widowed
married
single
800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100
male
0
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
female
9. Glossary
•
Definitions of main demographic indicators are given by:
•
Council of Europe (year): Recent demographic developments in Europe [year].
Strasbourg: Council of Europe Publishing (at the end of the publication).
•
Rothenbacher, Franz 2005: The European Population since 1945. The Societies of Europe,
vol. 4. Houndmills, Basingstoke: Palgrave, 66-68.
10. Literature
Birg, Herwig 2001: Die demographische Zeitenwende: Der Bevölkerungsrückgang in
Deutschland und Europa. München: C.H. Beck.
Chesnais, Jean-Claude 1992: The Demographic Transition: Stages, Patterns, and Economic
Implications. A Longitudinal Study of Sixty-Seven Countries Covering the Period 1720–
1984. Oxford: Clarendon Press.
Cliquet, Robert 1991: The Second Demographic Transition: Fact or Fiction? Population
Studies, No. 23. Strasbourg: Council of Europe.
Cliquet, Robert 1993: The Future of Europe’s Population: A Scenario Approach. Population
Studies, No. 26. Strasbourg: Council of Europe Press.
Coleman, David, ed. 1996a: Europe’s Population in the 1990s. Oxford: Oxford University
Press.
Coleman, David 1996b: New Patterns and Trends in European Fertility: International and
Sub-National Comparisons. In: Coleman 1996a, 1–61.
Höhn, Charlotte 1997: Bevölkerungsentwicklung und demographische Herausforderung. In:
Hradil und Immerfall, 71–95.
10. Literature (cont.)
Hradil, Stefan und Stefan Immerfall, Die westeuropäischen Gesellschaften im Vergleich.
Opladen: Leske und Budrich.
Rodríguez-Pose, A. 2002: The European Union: Economy, Society, and Polity. Oxford:
Oxford University Press.
Rothenbacher, Franz 2005: The European Population since 1945. The Societies of Europe,
vol. 4. Houndmills, Basingstoke: Palgrave.
Salt, John 1996: Migration Pressures on Western Europe. In: Coleman 1996a, 92–126. Birg,
Herwig 2001: Die demographische Zeitenwende: Der Bevölkerungsrückgang in
Deutschland und Europa. München: C.H. Beck.