Transcript None I have done consulting work for the following companies
Slide 1
Declaration of Conflict of Interest
I,
Allan Davison, Sarah Luthe Kyuragi,
Smita Pakhale, Kris Roberts
declare that in the past 3 years:
I have received manufacturer funding from the following companies*:
None
I have done consulting work for the following companies*:
None
I have done speaking engagements for the following companies*:
None
I or my family hold individual shares in the following*:
None
*pharmaceutical or medical/dental equipment
1
Global shifts: What’s their impact
on the roadmap to make hunger history?
Sarah Luthe Kyuragi (MD)
National Center for Global Health
& Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
Allan Davison (PhD)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Kris Roberts (MSc student)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Smita Pakhale (MD)
Ottawa, Hospital Research Inst
& University of Ottawa Canada 2
5.0
UNICEF 2011 “Beyond the bottom billion”
Top 1%
$3000 / day
Inflation adjusted PPP
10.0
3A World income
$1000s / person
3B Trickle down?3
1 Quintile
Poverty trap
< $1.25 / day
0.0
3
1500
Top 1%
$3000 / day
< $2 / day
Bar width = income / day
2000
Bottom 1% won’t live to 5 y
Slide 4
50
30
MDG1 [extreme poverty]
10
1960
1980
2000
2020
Global stunting
MDG1 indicator [Hunger]
Number of stunted (billions)
% of people below
$1.25 PPP / d
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Bars show absolute numbers
4
UNICEF & WHO www.who.int/entity/nutgrowthdb/jme_unicef_who_wb.pdf
Deaths per 1000 live births
Global under-5 mortality rate
80
60
Predicted
40
1990
5
2000
2010
Three of four in MICs
Where do the poor live?
India
35%
30%
20%
10%
China
Nigeria
Indonesia
Philippines
Pakistan
0%
Slide 6
from Canbur & Sumner
6
http://www.voxeu.org/article/poor-countries-or-poor-people-new-geography-global-poverty
Compare: Nigeria vs Bangladesh
http://tinyurl.com/globgap
Bangladesh a
“LIC”
Bangladesh
resource
poor
Nigeria
Now a “MIC”
Nigeria
resource
rich
Slide 7
7
Something is changing for better
but …
Resources don’t benefit country if wealth flows out
GDP / cap doesn’t mean food for all
Indices of poverty, hunger all decreasing
Increasingly, govmts are uplifting all
1
8
2050 will be a very different world
Thank you!
Contact:
[email protected] [please disturb]
[email protected]
More information, free
PowerPoint slides
www.sfu.ca/global-nutrition
“Stable poor countries are
increasing GNI /capita”
Brookings
Poorer
100% rIcher
$500pa
/cap
Nigeria
$5000pa
Fragile
Bangladesh
India
2000 → 2005
China
Stable
Animation
10
Take home message
• Trends predict: hunger will be history mid-century
• This doesn’t help 15000 children born today who
will not reach their 5th birthday.
• Long term optimism & short term impatience are
appropriate
The End
11
Slide 11
Slide 2
Declaration of Conflict of Interest
I,
Allan Davison, Sarah Luthe Kyuragi,
Smita Pakhale, Kris Roberts
declare that in the past 3 years:
I have received manufacturer funding from the following companies*:
None
I have done consulting work for the following companies*:
None
I have done speaking engagements for the following companies*:
None
I or my family hold individual shares in the following*:
None
*pharmaceutical or medical/dental equipment
1
Global shifts: What’s their impact
on the roadmap to make hunger history?
Sarah Luthe Kyuragi (MD)
National Center for Global Health
& Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
Allan Davison (PhD)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Kris Roberts (MSc student)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Smita Pakhale (MD)
Ottawa, Hospital Research Inst
& University of Ottawa Canada 2
5.0
UNICEF 2011 “Beyond the bottom billion”
Top 1%
$3000 / day
Inflation adjusted PPP
10.0
3A World income
$1000s / person
3B Trickle down?3
1 Quintile
Poverty trap
< $1.25 / day
0.0
3
1500
Top 1%
$3000 / day
< $2 / day
Bar width = income / day
2000
Bottom 1% won’t live to 5 y
Slide 4
50
30
MDG1 [extreme poverty]
10
1960
1980
2000
2020
Global stunting
MDG1 indicator [Hunger]
Number of stunted (billions)
% of people below
$1.25 PPP / d
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Bars show absolute numbers
4
UNICEF & WHO www.who.int/entity/nutgrowthdb/jme_unicef_who_wb.pdf
Deaths per 1000 live births
Global under-5 mortality rate
80
60
Predicted
40
1990
5
2000
2010
Three of four in MICs
Where do the poor live?
India
35%
30%
20%
10%
China
Nigeria
Indonesia
Philippines
Pakistan
0%
Slide 6
from Canbur & Sumner
6
http://www.voxeu.org/article/poor-countries-or-poor-people-new-geography-global-poverty
Compare: Nigeria vs Bangladesh
http://tinyurl.com/globgap
Bangladesh a
“LIC”
Bangladesh
resource
poor
Nigeria
Now a “MIC”
Nigeria
resource
rich
Slide 7
7
Something is changing for better
but …
Resources don’t benefit country if wealth flows out
GDP / cap doesn’t mean food for all
Indices of poverty, hunger all decreasing
Increasingly, govmts are uplifting all
1
8
2050 will be a very different world
Thank you!
Contact:
[email protected] [please disturb]
[email protected]
More information, free
PowerPoint slides
www.sfu.ca/global-nutrition
“Stable poor countries are
increasing GNI /capita”
Brookings
Poorer
100% rIcher
$500pa
/cap
Nigeria
$5000pa
Fragile
Bangladesh
India
2000 → 2005
China
Stable
Animation
10
Take home message
• Trends predict: hunger will be history mid-century
• This doesn’t help 15000 children born today who
will not reach their 5th birthday.
• Long term optimism & short term impatience are
appropriate
The End
11
Slide 11
Slide 3
Declaration of Conflict of Interest
I,
Allan Davison, Sarah Luthe Kyuragi,
Smita Pakhale, Kris Roberts
declare that in the past 3 years:
I have received manufacturer funding from the following companies*:
None
I have done consulting work for the following companies*:
None
I have done speaking engagements for the following companies*:
None
I or my family hold individual shares in the following*:
None
*pharmaceutical or medical/dental equipment
1
Global shifts: What’s their impact
on the roadmap to make hunger history?
Sarah Luthe Kyuragi (MD)
National Center for Global Health
& Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
Allan Davison (PhD)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Kris Roberts (MSc student)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Smita Pakhale (MD)
Ottawa, Hospital Research Inst
& University of Ottawa Canada 2
5.0
UNICEF 2011 “Beyond the bottom billion”
Top 1%
$3000 / day
Inflation adjusted PPP
10.0
3A World income
$1000s / person
3B Trickle down?3
1 Quintile
Poverty trap
< $1.25 / day
0.0
3
1500
Top 1%
$3000 / day
< $2 / day
Bar width = income / day
2000
Bottom 1% won’t live to 5 y
Slide 4
50
30
MDG1 [extreme poverty]
10
1960
1980
2000
2020
Global stunting
MDG1 indicator [Hunger]
Number of stunted (billions)
% of people below
$1.25 PPP / d
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Bars show absolute numbers
4
UNICEF & WHO www.who.int/entity/nutgrowthdb/jme_unicef_who_wb.pdf
Deaths per 1000 live births
Global under-5 mortality rate
80
60
Predicted
40
1990
5
2000
2010
Three of four in MICs
Where do the poor live?
India
35%
30%
20%
10%
China
Nigeria
Indonesia
Philippines
Pakistan
0%
Slide 6
from Canbur & Sumner
6
http://www.voxeu.org/article/poor-countries-or-poor-people-new-geography-global-poverty
Compare: Nigeria vs Bangladesh
http://tinyurl.com/globgap
Bangladesh a
“LIC”
Bangladesh
resource
poor
Nigeria
Now a “MIC”
Nigeria
resource
rich
Slide 7
7
Something is changing for better
but …
Resources don’t benefit country if wealth flows out
GDP / cap doesn’t mean food for all
Indices of poverty, hunger all decreasing
Increasingly, govmts are uplifting all
1
8
2050 will be a very different world
Thank you!
Contact:
[email protected] [please disturb]
[email protected]
More information, free
PowerPoint slides
www.sfu.ca/global-nutrition
“Stable poor countries are
increasing GNI /capita”
Brookings
Poorer
100% rIcher
$500pa
/cap
Nigeria
$5000pa
Fragile
Bangladesh
India
2000 → 2005
China
Stable
Animation
10
Take home message
• Trends predict: hunger will be history mid-century
• This doesn’t help 15000 children born today who
will not reach their 5th birthday.
• Long term optimism & short term impatience are
appropriate
The End
11
Slide 11
Slide 4
Declaration of Conflict of Interest
I,
Allan Davison, Sarah Luthe Kyuragi,
Smita Pakhale, Kris Roberts
declare that in the past 3 years:
I have received manufacturer funding from the following companies*:
None
I have done consulting work for the following companies*:
None
I have done speaking engagements for the following companies*:
None
I or my family hold individual shares in the following*:
None
*pharmaceutical or medical/dental equipment
1
Global shifts: What’s their impact
on the roadmap to make hunger history?
Sarah Luthe Kyuragi (MD)
National Center for Global Health
& Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
Allan Davison (PhD)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Kris Roberts (MSc student)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Smita Pakhale (MD)
Ottawa, Hospital Research Inst
& University of Ottawa Canada 2
5.0
UNICEF 2011 “Beyond the bottom billion”
Top 1%
$3000 / day
Inflation adjusted PPP
10.0
3A World income
$1000s / person
3B Trickle down?3
1 Quintile
Poverty trap
< $1.25 / day
0.0
3
1500
Top 1%
$3000 / day
< $2 / day
Bar width = income / day
2000
Bottom 1% won’t live to 5 y
Slide 4
50
30
MDG1 [extreme poverty]
10
1960
1980
2000
2020
Global stunting
MDG1 indicator [Hunger]
Number of stunted (billions)
% of people below
$1.25 PPP / d
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Bars show absolute numbers
4
UNICEF & WHO www.who.int/entity/nutgrowthdb/jme_unicef_who_wb.pdf
Deaths per 1000 live births
Global under-5 mortality rate
80
60
Predicted
40
1990
5
2000
2010
Three of four in MICs
Where do the poor live?
India
35%
30%
20%
10%
China
Nigeria
Indonesia
Philippines
Pakistan
0%
Slide 6
from Canbur & Sumner
6
http://www.voxeu.org/article/poor-countries-or-poor-people-new-geography-global-poverty
Compare: Nigeria vs Bangladesh
http://tinyurl.com/globgap
Bangladesh a
“LIC”
Bangladesh
resource
poor
Nigeria
Now a “MIC”
Nigeria
resource
rich
Slide 7
7
Something is changing for better
but …
Resources don’t benefit country if wealth flows out
GDP / cap doesn’t mean food for all
Indices of poverty, hunger all decreasing
Increasingly, govmts are uplifting all
1
8
2050 will be a very different world
Thank you!
Contact:
[email protected] [please disturb]
[email protected]
More information, free
PowerPoint slides
www.sfu.ca/global-nutrition
“Stable poor countries are
increasing GNI /capita”
Brookings
Poorer
100% rIcher
$500pa
/cap
Nigeria
$5000pa
Fragile
Bangladesh
India
2000 → 2005
China
Stable
Animation
10
Take home message
• Trends predict: hunger will be history mid-century
• This doesn’t help 15000 children born today who
will not reach their 5th birthday.
• Long term optimism & short term impatience are
appropriate
The End
11
Slide 11
Slide 5
Declaration of Conflict of Interest
I,
Allan Davison, Sarah Luthe Kyuragi,
Smita Pakhale, Kris Roberts
declare that in the past 3 years:
I have received manufacturer funding from the following companies*:
None
I have done consulting work for the following companies*:
None
I have done speaking engagements for the following companies*:
None
I or my family hold individual shares in the following*:
None
*pharmaceutical or medical/dental equipment
1
Global shifts: What’s their impact
on the roadmap to make hunger history?
Sarah Luthe Kyuragi (MD)
National Center for Global Health
& Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
Allan Davison (PhD)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Kris Roberts (MSc student)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Smita Pakhale (MD)
Ottawa, Hospital Research Inst
& University of Ottawa Canada 2
5.0
UNICEF 2011 “Beyond the bottom billion”
Top 1%
$3000 / day
Inflation adjusted PPP
10.0
3A World income
$1000s / person
3B Trickle down?3
1 Quintile
Poverty trap
< $1.25 / day
0.0
3
1500
Top 1%
$3000 / day
< $2 / day
Bar width = income / day
2000
Bottom 1% won’t live to 5 y
Slide 4
50
30
MDG1 [extreme poverty]
10
1960
1980
2000
2020
Global stunting
MDG1 indicator [Hunger]
Number of stunted (billions)
% of people below
$1.25 PPP / d
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Bars show absolute numbers
4
UNICEF & WHO www.who.int/entity/nutgrowthdb/jme_unicef_who_wb.pdf
Deaths per 1000 live births
Global under-5 mortality rate
80
60
Predicted
40
1990
5
2000
2010
Three of four in MICs
Where do the poor live?
India
35%
30%
20%
10%
China
Nigeria
Indonesia
Philippines
Pakistan
0%
Slide 6
from Canbur & Sumner
6
http://www.voxeu.org/article/poor-countries-or-poor-people-new-geography-global-poverty
Compare: Nigeria vs Bangladesh
http://tinyurl.com/globgap
Bangladesh a
“LIC”
Bangladesh
resource
poor
Nigeria
Now a “MIC”
Nigeria
resource
rich
Slide 7
7
Something is changing for better
but …
Resources don’t benefit country if wealth flows out
GDP / cap doesn’t mean food for all
Indices of poverty, hunger all decreasing
Increasingly, govmts are uplifting all
1
8
2050 will be a very different world
Thank you!
Contact:
[email protected] [please disturb]
[email protected]
More information, free
PowerPoint slides
www.sfu.ca/global-nutrition
“Stable poor countries are
increasing GNI /capita”
Brookings
Poorer
100% rIcher
$500pa
/cap
Nigeria
$5000pa
Fragile
Bangladesh
India
2000 → 2005
China
Stable
Animation
10
Take home message
• Trends predict: hunger will be history mid-century
• This doesn’t help 15000 children born today who
will not reach their 5th birthday.
• Long term optimism & short term impatience are
appropriate
The End
11
Slide 11
Slide 6
Declaration of Conflict of Interest
I,
Allan Davison, Sarah Luthe Kyuragi,
Smita Pakhale, Kris Roberts
declare that in the past 3 years:
I have received manufacturer funding from the following companies*:
None
I have done consulting work for the following companies*:
None
I have done speaking engagements for the following companies*:
None
I or my family hold individual shares in the following*:
None
*pharmaceutical or medical/dental equipment
1
Global shifts: What’s their impact
on the roadmap to make hunger history?
Sarah Luthe Kyuragi (MD)
National Center for Global Health
& Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
Allan Davison (PhD)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Kris Roberts (MSc student)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Smita Pakhale (MD)
Ottawa, Hospital Research Inst
& University of Ottawa Canada 2
5.0
UNICEF 2011 “Beyond the bottom billion”
Top 1%
$3000 / day
Inflation adjusted PPP
10.0
3A World income
$1000s / person
3B Trickle down?3
1 Quintile
Poverty trap
< $1.25 / day
0.0
3
1500
Top 1%
$3000 / day
< $2 / day
Bar width = income / day
2000
Bottom 1% won’t live to 5 y
Slide 4
50
30
MDG1 [extreme poverty]
10
1960
1980
2000
2020
Global stunting
MDG1 indicator [Hunger]
Number of stunted (billions)
% of people below
$1.25 PPP / d
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Bars show absolute numbers
4
UNICEF & WHO www.who.int/entity/nutgrowthdb/jme_unicef_who_wb.pdf
Deaths per 1000 live births
Global under-5 mortality rate
80
60
Predicted
40
1990
5
2000
2010
Three of four in MICs
Where do the poor live?
India
35%
30%
20%
10%
China
Nigeria
Indonesia
Philippines
Pakistan
0%
Slide 6
from Canbur & Sumner
6
http://www.voxeu.org/article/poor-countries-or-poor-people-new-geography-global-poverty
Compare: Nigeria vs Bangladesh
http://tinyurl.com/globgap
Bangladesh a
“LIC”
Bangladesh
resource
poor
Nigeria
Now a “MIC”
Nigeria
resource
rich
Slide 7
7
Something is changing for better
but …
Resources don’t benefit country if wealth flows out
GDP / cap doesn’t mean food for all
Indices of poverty, hunger all decreasing
Increasingly, govmts are uplifting all
1
8
2050 will be a very different world
Thank you!
Contact:
[email protected] [please disturb]
[email protected]
More information, free
PowerPoint slides
www.sfu.ca/global-nutrition
“Stable poor countries are
increasing GNI /capita”
Brookings
Poorer
100% rIcher
$500pa
/cap
Nigeria
$5000pa
Fragile
Bangladesh
India
2000 → 2005
China
Stable
Animation
10
Take home message
• Trends predict: hunger will be history mid-century
• This doesn’t help 15000 children born today who
will not reach their 5th birthday.
• Long term optimism & short term impatience are
appropriate
The End
11
Slide 11
Slide 7
Declaration of Conflict of Interest
I,
Allan Davison, Sarah Luthe Kyuragi,
Smita Pakhale, Kris Roberts
declare that in the past 3 years:
I have received manufacturer funding from the following companies*:
None
I have done consulting work for the following companies*:
None
I have done speaking engagements for the following companies*:
None
I or my family hold individual shares in the following*:
None
*pharmaceutical or medical/dental equipment
1
Global shifts: What’s their impact
on the roadmap to make hunger history?
Sarah Luthe Kyuragi (MD)
National Center for Global Health
& Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
Allan Davison (PhD)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Kris Roberts (MSc student)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Smita Pakhale (MD)
Ottawa, Hospital Research Inst
& University of Ottawa Canada 2
5.0
UNICEF 2011 “Beyond the bottom billion”
Top 1%
$3000 / day
Inflation adjusted PPP
10.0
3A World income
$1000s / person
3B Trickle down?3
1 Quintile
Poverty trap
< $1.25 / day
0.0
3
1500
Top 1%
$3000 / day
< $2 / day
Bar width = income / day
2000
Bottom 1% won’t live to 5 y
Slide 4
50
30
MDG1 [extreme poverty]
10
1960
1980
2000
2020
Global stunting
MDG1 indicator [Hunger]
Number of stunted (billions)
% of people below
$1.25 PPP / d
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Bars show absolute numbers
4
UNICEF & WHO www.who.int/entity/nutgrowthdb/jme_unicef_who_wb.pdf
Deaths per 1000 live births
Global under-5 mortality rate
80
60
Predicted
40
1990
5
2000
2010
Three of four in MICs
Where do the poor live?
India
35%
30%
20%
10%
China
Nigeria
Indonesia
Philippines
Pakistan
0%
Slide 6
from Canbur & Sumner
6
http://www.voxeu.org/article/poor-countries-or-poor-people-new-geography-global-poverty
Compare: Nigeria vs Bangladesh
http://tinyurl.com/globgap
Bangladesh a
“LIC”
Bangladesh
resource
poor
Nigeria
Now a “MIC”
Nigeria
resource
rich
Slide 7
7
Something is changing for better
but …
Resources don’t benefit country if wealth flows out
GDP / cap doesn’t mean food for all
Indices of poverty, hunger all decreasing
Increasingly, govmts are uplifting all
1
8
2050 will be a very different world
Thank you!
Contact:
[email protected] [please disturb]
[email protected]
More information, free
PowerPoint slides
www.sfu.ca/global-nutrition
“Stable poor countries are
increasing GNI /capita”
Brookings
Poorer
100% rIcher
$500pa
/cap
Nigeria
$5000pa
Fragile
Bangladesh
India
2000 → 2005
China
Stable
Animation
10
Take home message
• Trends predict: hunger will be history mid-century
• This doesn’t help 15000 children born today who
will not reach their 5th birthday.
• Long term optimism & short term impatience are
appropriate
The End
11
Slide 11
Slide 8
Declaration of Conflict of Interest
I,
Allan Davison, Sarah Luthe Kyuragi,
Smita Pakhale, Kris Roberts
declare that in the past 3 years:
I have received manufacturer funding from the following companies*:
None
I have done consulting work for the following companies*:
None
I have done speaking engagements for the following companies*:
None
I or my family hold individual shares in the following*:
None
*pharmaceutical or medical/dental equipment
1
Global shifts: What’s their impact
on the roadmap to make hunger history?
Sarah Luthe Kyuragi (MD)
National Center for Global Health
& Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
Allan Davison (PhD)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Kris Roberts (MSc student)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Smita Pakhale (MD)
Ottawa, Hospital Research Inst
& University of Ottawa Canada 2
5.0
UNICEF 2011 “Beyond the bottom billion”
Top 1%
$3000 / day
Inflation adjusted PPP
10.0
3A World income
$1000s / person
3B Trickle down?3
1 Quintile
Poverty trap
< $1.25 / day
0.0
3
1500
Top 1%
$3000 / day
< $2 / day
Bar width = income / day
2000
Bottom 1% won’t live to 5 y
Slide 4
50
30
MDG1 [extreme poverty]
10
1960
1980
2000
2020
Global stunting
MDG1 indicator [Hunger]
Number of stunted (billions)
% of people below
$1.25 PPP / d
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Bars show absolute numbers
4
UNICEF & WHO www.who.int/entity/nutgrowthdb/jme_unicef_who_wb.pdf
Deaths per 1000 live births
Global under-5 mortality rate
80
60
Predicted
40
1990
5
2000
2010
Three of four in MICs
Where do the poor live?
India
35%
30%
20%
10%
China
Nigeria
Indonesia
Philippines
Pakistan
0%
Slide 6
from Canbur & Sumner
6
http://www.voxeu.org/article/poor-countries-or-poor-people-new-geography-global-poverty
Compare: Nigeria vs Bangladesh
http://tinyurl.com/globgap
Bangladesh a
“LIC”
Bangladesh
resource
poor
Nigeria
Now a “MIC”
Nigeria
resource
rich
Slide 7
7
Something is changing for better
but …
Resources don’t benefit country if wealth flows out
GDP / cap doesn’t mean food for all
Indices of poverty, hunger all decreasing
Increasingly, govmts are uplifting all
1
8
2050 will be a very different world
Thank you!
Contact:
[email protected] [please disturb]
[email protected]
More information, free
PowerPoint slides
www.sfu.ca/global-nutrition
“Stable poor countries are
increasing GNI /capita”
Brookings
Poorer
100% rIcher
$500pa
/cap
Nigeria
$5000pa
Fragile
Bangladesh
India
2000 → 2005
China
Stable
Animation
10
Take home message
• Trends predict: hunger will be history mid-century
• This doesn’t help 15000 children born today who
will not reach their 5th birthday.
• Long term optimism & short term impatience are
appropriate
The End
11
Slide 11
Slide 9
Declaration of Conflict of Interest
I,
Allan Davison, Sarah Luthe Kyuragi,
Smita Pakhale, Kris Roberts
declare that in the past 3 years:
I have received manufacturer funding from the following companies*:
None
I have done consulting work for the following companies*:
None
I have done speaking engagements for the following companies*:
None
I or my family hold individual shares in the following*:
None
*pharmaceutical or medical/dental equipment
1
Global shifts: What’s their impact
on the roadmap to make hunger history?
Sarah Luthe Kyuragi (MD)
National Center for Global Health
& Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
Allan Davison (PhD)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Kris Roberts (MSc student)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Smita Pakhale (MD)
Ottawa, Hospital Research Inst
& University of Ottawa Canada 2
5.0
UNICEF 2011 “Beyond the bottom billion”
Top 1%
$3000 / day
Inflation adjusted PPP
10.0
3A World income
$1000s / person
3B Trickle down?3
1 Quintile
Poverty trap
< $1.25 / day
0.0
3
1500
Top 1%
$3000 / day
< $2 / day
Bar width = income / day
2000
Bottom 1% won’t live to 5 y
Slide 4
50
30
MDG1 [extreme poverty]
10
1960
1980
2000
2020
Global stunting
MDG1 indicator [Hunger]
Number of stunted (billions)
% of people below
$1.25 PPP / d
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Bars show absolute numbers
4
UNICEF & WHO www.who.int/entity/nutgrowthdb/jme_unicef_who_wb.pdf
Deaths per 1000 live births
Global under-5 mortality rate
80
60
Predicted
40
1990
5
2000
2010
Three of four in MICs
Where do the poor live?
India
35%
30%
20%
10%
China
Nigeria
Indonesia
Philippines
Pakistan
0%
Slide 6
from Canbur & Sumner
6
http://www.voxeu.org/article/poor-countries-or-poor-people-new-geography-global-poverty
Compare: Nigeria vs Bangladesh
http://tinyurl.com/globgap
Bangladesh a
“LIC”
Bangladesh
resource
poor
Nigeria
Now a “MIC”
Nigeria
resource
rich
Slide 7
7
Something is changing for better
but …
Resources don’t benefit country if wealth flows out
GDP / cap doesn’t mean food for all
Indices of poverty, hunger all decreasing
Increasingly, govmts are uplifting all
1
8
2050 will be a very different world
Thank you!
Contact:
[email protected] [please disturb]
[email protected]
More information, free
PowerPoint slides
www.sfu.ca/global-nutrition
“Stable poor countries are
increasing GNI /capita”
Brookings
Poorer
100% rIcher
$500pa
/cap
Nigeria
$5000pa
Fragile
Bangladesh
India
2000 → 2005
China
Stable
Animation
10
Take home message
• Trends predict: hunger will be history mid-century
• This doesn’t help 15000 children born today who
will not reach their 5th birthday.
• Long term optimism & short term impatience are
appropriate
The End
11
Slide 11
Slide 10
Declaration of Conflict of Interest
I,
Allan Davison, Sarah Luthe Kyuragi,
Smita Pakhale, Kris Roberts
declare that in the past 3 years:
I have received manufacturer funding from the following companies*:
None
I have done consulting work for the following companies*:
None
I have done speaking engagements for the following companies*:
None
I or my family hold individual shares in the following*:
None
*pharmaceutical or medical/dental equipment
1
Global shifts: What’s their impact
on the roadmap to make hunger history?
Sarah Luthe Kyuragi (MD)
National Center for Global Health
& Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
Allan Davison (PhD)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Kris Roberts (MSc student)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Smita Pakhale (MD)
Ottawa, Hospital Research Inst
& University of Ottawa Canada 2
5.0
UNICEF 2011 “Beyond the bottom billion”
Top 1%
$3000 / day
Inflation adjusted PPP
10.0
3A World income
$1000s / person
3B Trickle down?3
1 Quintile
Poverty trap
< $1.25 / day
0.0
3
1500
Top 1%
$3000 / day
< $2 / day
Bar width = income / day
2000
Bottom 1% won’t live to 5 y
Slide 4
50
30
MDG1 [extreme poverty]
10
1960
1980
2000
2020
Global stunting
MDG1 indicator [Hunger]
Number of stunted (billions)
% of people below
$1.25 PPP / d
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Bars show absolute numbers
4
UNICEF & WHO www.who.int/entity/nutgrowthdb/jme_unicef_who_wb.pdf
Deaths per 1000 live births
Global under-5 mortality rate
80
60
Predicted
40
1990
5
2000
2010
Three of four in MICs
Where do the poor live?
India
35%
30%
20%
10%
China
Nigeria
Indonesia
Philippines
Pakistan
0%
Slide 6
from Canbur & Sumner
6
http://www.voxeu.org/article/poor-countries-or-poor-people-new-geography-global-poverty
Compare: Nigeria vs Bangladesh
http://tinyurl.com/globgap
Bangladesh a
“LIC”
Bangladesh
resource
poor
Nigeria
Now a “MIC”
Nigeria
resource
rich
Slide 7
7
Something is changing for better
but …
Resources don’t benefit country if wealth flows out
GDP / cap doesn’t mean food for all
Indices of poverty, hunger all decreasing
Increasingly, govmts are uplifting all
1
8
2050 will be a very different world
Thank you!
Contact:
[email protected] [please disturb]
[email protected]
More information, free
PowerPoint slides
www.sfu.ca/global-nutrition
“Stable poor countries are
increasing GNI /capita”
Brookings
Poorer
100% rIcher
$500pa
/cap
Nigeria
$5000pa
Fragile
Bangladesh
India
2000 → 2005
China
Stable
Animation
10
Take home message
• Trends predict: hunger will be history mid-century
• This doesn’t help 15000 children born today who
will not reach their 5th birthday.
• Long term optimism & short term impatience are
appropriate
The End
11
Slide 11
Slide 11
Declaration of Conflict of Interest
I,
Allan Davison, Sarah Luthe Kyuragi,
Smita Pakhale, Kris Roberts
declare that in the past 3 years:
I have received manufacturer funding from the following companies*:
None
I have done consulting work for the following companies*:
None
I have done speaking engagements for the following companies*:
None
I or my family hold individual shares in the following*:
None
*pharmaceutical or medical/dental equipment
1
Global shifts: What’s their impact
on the roadmap to make hunger history?
Sarah Luthe Kyuragi (MD)
National Center for Global Health
& Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
Allan Davison (PhD)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Kris Roberts (MSc student)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Smita Pakhale (MD)
Ottawa, Hospital Research Inst
& University of Ottawa Canada 2
5.0
UNICEF 2011 “Beyond the bottom billion”
Top 1%
$3000 / day
Inflation adjusted PPP
10.0
3A World income
$1000s / person
3B Trickle down?3
1 Quintile
Poverty trap
< $1.25 / day
0.0
3
1500
Top 1%
$3000 / day
< $2 / day
Bar width = income / day
2000
Bottom 1% won’t live to 5 y
Slide 4
50
30
MDG1 [extreme poverty]
10
1960
1980
2000
2020
Global stunting
MDG1 indicator [Hunger]
Number of stunted (billions)
% of people below
$1.25 PPP / d
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Bars show absolute numbers
4
UNICEF & WHO www.who.int/entity/nutgrowthdb/jme_unicef_who_wb.pdf
Deaths per 1000 live births
Global under-5 mortality rate
80
60
Predicted
40
1990
5
2000
2010
Three of four in MICs
Where do the poor live?
India
35%
30%
20%
10%
China
Nigeria
Indonesia
Philippines
Pakistan
0%
Slide 6
from Canbur & Sumner
6
http://www.voxeu.org/article/poor-countries-or-poor-people-new-geography-global-poverty
Compare: Nigeria vs Bangladesh
http://tinyurl.com/globgap
Bangladesh a
“LIC”
Bangladesh
resource
poor
Nigeria
Now a “MIC”
Nigeria
resource
rich
Slide 7
7
Something is changing for better
but …
Resources don’t benefit country if wealth flows out
GDP / cap doesn’t mean food for all
Indices of poverty, hunger all decreasing
Increasingly, govmts are uplifting all
1
8
2050 will be a very different world
Thank you!
Contact:
[email protected] [please disturb]
[email protected]
More information, free
PowerPoint slides
www.sfu.ca/global-nutrition
“Stable poor countries are
increasing GNI /capita”
Brookings
Poorer
100% rIcher
$500pa
/cap
Nigeria
$5000pa
Fragile
Bangladesh
India
2000 → 2005
China
Stable
Animation
10
Take home message
• Trends predict: hunger will be history mid-century
• This doesn’t help 15000 children born today who
will not reach their 5th birthday.
• Long term optimism & short term impatience are
appropriate
The End
11
Slide 11
Declaration of Conflict of Interest
I,
Allan Davison, Sarah Luthe Kyuragi,
Smita Pakhale, Kris Roberts
declare that in the past 3 years:
I have received manufacturer funding from the following companies*:
None
I have done consulting work for the following companies*:
None
I have done speaking engagements for the following companies*:
None
I or my family hold individual shares in the following*:
None
*pharmaceutical or medical/dental equipment
1
Global shifts: What’s their impact
on the roadmap to make hunger history?
Sarah Luthe Kyuragi (MD)
National Center for Global Health
& Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
Allan Davison (PhD)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Kris Roberts (MSc student)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Smita Pakhale (MD)
Ottawa, Hospital Research Inst
& University of Ottawa Canada 2
5.0
UNICEF 2011 “Beyond the bottom billion”
Top 1%
$3000 / day
Inflation adjusted PPP
10.0
3A World income
$1000s / person
3B Trickle down?3
1 Quintile
Poverty trap
< $1.25 / day
0.0
3
1500
Top 1%
$3000 / day
< $2 / day
Bar width = income / day
2000
Bottom 1% won’t live to 5 y
Slide 4
50
30
MDG1 [extreme poverty]
10
1960
1980
2000
2020
Global stunting
MDG1 indicator [Hunger]
Number of stunted (billions)
% of people below
$1.25 PPP / d
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Bars show absolute numbers
4
UNICEF & WHO www.who.int/entity/nutgrowthdb/jme_unicef_who_wb.pdf
Deaths per 1000 live births
Global under-5 mortality rate
80
60
Predicted
40
1990
5
2000
2010
Three of four in MICs
Where do the poor live?
India
35%
30%
20%
10%
China
Nigeria
Indonesia
Philippines
Pakistan
0%
Slide 6
from Canbur & Sumner
6
http://www.voxeu.org/article/poor-countries-or-poor-people-new-geography-global-poverty
Compare: Nigeria vs Bangladesh
http://tinyurl.com/globgap
Bangladesh a
“LIC”
Bangladesh
resource
poor
Nigeria
Now a “MIC”
Nigeria
resource
rich
Slide 7
7
Something is changing for better
but …
Resources don’t benefit country if wealth flows out
GDP / cap doesn’t mean food for all
Indices of poverty, hunger all decreasing
Increasingly, govmts are uplifting all
1
8
2050 will be a very different world
Thank you!
Contact:
[email protected] [please disturb]
[email protected]
More information, free
PowerPoint slides
www.sfu.ca/global-nutrition
“Stable poor countries are
increasing GNI /capita”
Brookings
Poorer
100% rIcher
$500pa
/cap
Nigeria
$5000pa
Fragile
Bangladesh
India
2000 → 2005
China
Stable
Animation
10
Take home message
• Trends predict: hunger will be history mid-century
• This doesn’t help 15000 children born today who
will not reach their 5th birthday.
• Long term optimism & short term impatience are
appropriate
The End
11
Slide 11
Slide 2
Declaration of Conflict of Interest
I,
Allan Davison, Sarah Luthe Kyuragi,
Smita Pakhale, Kris Roberts
declare that in the past 3 years:
I have received manufacturer funding from the following companies*:
None
I have done consulting work for the following companies*:
None
I have done speaking engagements for the following companies*:
None
I or my family hold individual shares in the following*:
None
*pharmaceutical or medical/dental equipment
1
Global shifts: What’s their impact
on the roadmap to make hunger history?
Sarah Luthe Kyuragi (MD)
National Center for Global Health
& Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
Allan Davison (PhD)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Kris Roberts (MSc student)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Smita Pakhale (MD)
Ottawa, Hospital Research Inst
& University of Ottawa Canada 2
5.0
UNICEF 2011 “Beyond the bottom billion”
Top 1%
$3000 / day
Inflation adjusted PPP
10.0
3A World income
$1000s / person
3B Trickle down?3
1 Quintile
Poverty trap
< $1.25 / day
0.0
3
1500
Top 1%
$3000 / day
< $2 / day
Bar width = income / day
2000
Bottom 1% won’t live to 5 y
Slide 4
50
30
MDG1 [extreme poverty]
10
1960
1980
2000
2020
Global stunting
MDG1 indicator [Hunger]
Number of stunted (billions)
% of people below
$1.25 PPP / d
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Bars show absolute numbers
4
UNICEF & WHO www.who.int/entity/nutgrowthdb/jme_unicef_who_wb.pdf
Deaths per 1000 live births
Global under-5 mortality rate
80
60
Predicted
40
1990
5
2000
2010
Three of four in MICs
Where do the poor live?
India
35%
30%
20%
10%
China
Nigeria
Indonesia
Philippines
Pakistan
0%
Slide 6
from Canbur & Sumner
6
http://www.voxeu.org/article/poor-countries-or-poor-people-new-geography-global-poverty
Compare: Nigeria vs Bangladesh
http://tinyurl.com/globgap
Bangladesh a
“LIC”
Bangladesh
resource
poor
Nigeria
Now a “MIC”
Nigeria
resource
rich
Slide 7
7
Something is changing for better
but …
Resources don’t benefit country if wealth flows out
GDP / cap doesn’t mean food for all
Indices of poverty, hunger all decreasing
Increasingly, govmts are uplifting all
1
8
2050 will be a very different world
Thank you!
Contact:
[email protected] [please disturb]
[email protected]
More information, free
PowerPoint slides
www.sfu.ca/global-nutrition
“Stable poor countries are
increasing GNI /capita”
Brookings
Poorer
100% rIcher
$500pa
/cap
Nigeria
$5000pa
Fragile
Bangladesh
India
2000 → 2005
China
Stable
Animation
10
Take home message
• Trends predict: hunger will be history mid-century
• This doesn’t help 15000 children born today who
will not reach their 5th birthday.
• Long term optimism & short term impatience are
appropriate
The End
11
Slide 11
Slide 3
Declaration of Conflict of Interest
I,
Allan Davison, Sarah Luthe Kyuragi,
Smita Pakhale, Kris Roberts
declare that in the past 3 years:
I have received manufacturer funding from the following companies*:
None
I have done consulting work for the following companies*:
None
I have done speaking engagements for the following companies*:
None
I or my family hold individual shares in the following*:
None
*pharmaceutical or medical/dental equipment
1
Global shifts: What’s their impact
on the roadmap to make hunger history?
Sarah Luthe Kyuragi (MD)
National Center for Global Health
& Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
Allan Davison (PhD)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Kris Roberts (MSc student)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Smita Pakhale (MD)
Ottawa, Hospital Research Inst
& University of Ottawa Canada 2
5.0
UNICEF 2011 “Beyond the bottom billion”
Top 1%
$3000 / day
Inflation adjusted PPP
10.0
3A World income
$1000s / person
3B Trickle down?3
1 Quintile
Poverty trap
< $1.25 / day
0.0
3
1500
Top 1%
$3000 / day
< $2 / day
Bar width = income / day
2000
Bottom 1% won’t live to 5 y
Slide 4
50
30
MDG1 [extreme poverty]
10
1960
1980
2000
2020
Global stunting
MDG1 indicator [Hunger]
Number of stunted (billions)
% of people below
$1.25 PPP / d
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Bars show absolute numbers
4
UNICEF & WHO www.who.int/entity/nutgrowthdb/jme_unicef_who_wb.pdf
Deaths per 1000 live births
Global under-5 mortality rate
80
60
Predicted
40
1990
5
2000
2010
Three of four in MICs
Where do the poor live?
India
35%
30%
20%
10%
China
Nigeria
Indonesia
Philippines
Pakistan
0%
Slide 6
from Canbur & Sumner
6
http://www.voxeu.org/article/poor-countries-or-poor-people-new-geography-global-poverty
Compare: Nigeria vs Bangladesh
http://tinyurl.com/globgap
Bangladesh a
“LIC”
Bangladesh
resource
poor
Nigeria
Now a “MIC”
Nigeria
resource
rich
Slide 7
7
Something is changing for better
but …
Resources don’t benefit country if wealth flows out
GDP / cap doesn’t mean food for all
Indices of poverty, hunger all decreasing
Increasingly, govmts are uplifting all
1
8
2050 will be a very different world
Thank you!
Contact:
[email protected] [please disturb]
[email protected]
More information, free
PowerPoint slides
www.sfu.ca/global-nutrition
“Stable poor countries are
increasing GNI /capita”
Brookings
Poorer
100% rIcher
$500pa
/cap
Nigeria
$5000pa
Fragile
Bangladesh
India
2000 → 2005
China
Stable
Animation
10
Take home message
• Trends predict: hunger will be history mid-century
• This doesn’t help 15000 children born today who
will not reach their 5th birthday.
• Long term optimism & short term impatience are
appropriate
The End
11
Slide 11
Slide 4
Declaration of Conflict of Interest
I,
Allan Davison, Sarah Luthe Kyuragi,
Smita Pakhale, Kris Roberts
declare that in the past 3 years:
I have received manufacturer funding from the following companies*:
None
I have done consulting work for the following companies*:
None
I have done speaking engagements for the following companies*:
None
I or my family hold individual shares in the following*:
None
*pharmaceutical or medical/dental equipment
1
Global shifts: What’s their impact
on the roadmap to make hunger history?
Sarah Luthe Kyuragi (MD)
National Center for Global Health
& Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
Allan Davison (PhD)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Kris Roberts (MSc student)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Smita Pakhale (MD)
Ottawa, Hospital Research Inst
& University of Ottawa Canada 2
5.0
UNICEF 2011 “Beyond the bottom billion”
Top 1%
$3000 / day
Inflation adjusted PPP
10.0
3A World income
$1000s / person
3B Trickle down?3
1 Quintile
Poverty trap
< $1.25 / day
0.0
3
1500
Top 1%
$3000 / day
< $2 / day
Bar width = income / day
2000
Bottom 1% won’t live to 5 y
Slide 4
50
30
MDG1 [extreme poverty]
10
1960
1980
2000
2020
Global stunting
MDG1 indicator [Hunger]
Number of stunted (billions)
% of people below
$1.25 PPP / d
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Bars show absolute numbers
4
UNICEF & WHO www.who.int/entity/nutgrowthdb/jme_unicef_who_wb.pdf
Deaths per 1000 live births
Global under-5 mortality rate
80
60
Predicted
40
1990
5
2000
2010
Three of four in MICs
Where do the poor live?
India
35%
30%
20%
10%
China
Nigeria
Indonesia
Philippines
Pakistan
0%
Slide 6
from Canbur & Sumner
6
http://www.voxeu.org/article/poor-countries-or-poor-people-new-geography-global-poverty
Compare: Nigeria vs Bangladesh
http://tinyurl.com/globgap
Bangladesh a
“LIC”
Bangladesh
resource
poor
Nigeria
Now a “MIC”
Nigeria
resource
rich
Slide 7
7
Something is changing for better
but …
Resources don’t benefit country if wealth flows out
GDP / cap doesn’t mean food for all
Indices of poverty, hunger all decreasing
Increasingly, govmts are uplifting all
1
8
2050 will be a very different world
Thank you!
Contact:
[email protected] [please disturb]
[email protected]
More information, free
PowerPoint slides
www.sfu.ca/global-nutrition
“Stable poor countries are
increasing GNI /capita”
Brookings
Poorer
100% rIcher
$500pa
/cap
Nigeria
$5000pa
Fragile
Bangladesh
India
2000 → 2005
China
Stable
Animation
10
Take home message
• Trends predict: hunger will be history mid-century
• This doesn’t help 15000 children born today who
will not reach their 5th birthday.
• Long term optimism & short term impatience are
appropriate
The End
11
Slide 11
Slide 5
Declaration of Conflict of Interest
I,
Allan Davison, Sarah Luthe Kyuragi,
Smita Pakhale, Kris Roberts
declare that in the past 3 years:
I have received manufacturer funding from the following companies*:
None
I have done consulting work for the following companies*:
None
I have done speaking engagements for the following companies*:
None
I or my family hold individual shares in the following*:
None
*pharmaceutical or medical/dental equipment
1
Global shifts: What’s their impact
on the roadmap to make hunger history?
Sarah Luthe Kyuragi (MD)
National Center for Global Health
& Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
Allan Davison (PhD)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Kris Roberts (MSc student)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Smita Pakhale (MD)
Ottawa, Hospital Research Inst
& University of Ottawa Canada 2
5.0
UNICEF 2011 “Beyond the bottom billion”
Top 1%
$3000 / day
Inflation adjusted PPP
10.0
3A World income
$1000s / person
3B Trickle down?3
1 Quintile
Poverty trap
< $1.25 / day
0.0
3
1500
Top 1%
$3000 / day
< $2 / day
Bar width = income / day
2000
Bottom 1% won’t live to 5 y
Slide 4
50
30
MDG1 [extreme poverty]
10
1960
1980
2000
2020
Global stunting
MDG1 indicator [Hunger]
Number of stunted (billions)
% of people below
$1.25 PPP / d
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Bars show absolute numbers
4
UNICEF & WHO www.who.int/entity/nutgrowthdb/jme_unicef_who_wb.pdf
Deaths per 1000 live births
Global under-5 mortality rate
80
60
Predicted
40
1990
5
2000
2010
Three of four in MICs
Where do the poor live?
India
35%
30%
20%
10%
China
Nigeria
Indonesia
Philippines
Pakistan
0%
Slide 6
from Canbur & Sumner
6
http://www.voxeu.org/article/poor-countries-or-poor-people-new-geography-global-poverty
Compare: Nigeria vs Bangladesh
http://tinyurl.com/globgap
Bangladesh a
“LIC”
Bangladesh
resource
poor
Nigeria
Now a “MIC”
Nigeria
resource
rich
Slide 7
7
Something is changing for better
but …
Resources don’t benefit country if wealth flows out
GDP / cap doesn’t mean food for all
Indices of poverty, hunger all decreasing
Increasingly, govmts are uplifting all
1
8
2050 will be a very different world
Thank you!
Contact:
[email protected] [please disturb]
[email protected]
More information, free
PowerPoint slides
www.sfu.ca/global-nutrition
“Stable poor countries are
increasing GNI /capita”
Brookings
Poorer
100% rIcher
$500pa
/cap
Nigeria
$5000pa
Fragile
Bangladesh
India
2000 → 2005
China
Stable
Animation
10
Take home message
• Trends predict: hunger will be history mid-century
• This doesn’t help 15000 children born today who
will not reach their 5th birthday.
• Long term optimism & short term impatience are
appropriate
The End
11
Slide 11
Slide 6
Declaration of Conflict of Interest
I,
Allan Davison, Sarah Luthe Kyuragi,
Smita Pakhale, Kris Roberts
declare that in the past 3 years:
I have received manufacturer funding from the following companies*:
None
I have done consulting work for the following companies*:
None
I have done speaking engagements for the following companies*:
None
I or my family hold individual shares in the following*:
None
*pharmaceutical or medical/dental equipment
1
Global shifts: What’s their impact
on the roadmap to make hunger history?
Sarah Luthe Kyuragi (MD)
National Center for Global Health
& Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
Allan Davison (PhD)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Kris Roberts (MSc student)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Smita Pakhale (MD)
Ottawa, Hospital Research Inst
& University of Ottawa Canada 2
5.0
UNICEF 2011 “Beyond the bottom billion”
Top 1%
$3000 / day
Inflation adjusted PPP
10.0
3A World income
$1000s / person
3B Trickle down?3
1 Quintile
Poverty trap
< $1.25 / day
0.0
3
1500
Top 1%
$3000 / day
< $2 / day
Bar width = income / day
2000
Bottom 1% won’t live to 5 y
Slide 4
50
30
MDG1 [extreme poverty]
10
1960
1980
2000
2020
Global stunting
MDG1 indicator [Hunger]
Number of stunted (billions)
% of people below
$1.25 PPP / d
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Bars show absolute numbers
4
UNICEF & WHO www.who.int/entity/nutgrowthdb/jme_unicef_who_wb.pdf
Deaths per 1000 live births
Global under-5 mortality rate
80
60
Predicted
40
1990
5
2000
2010
Three of four in MICs
Where do the poor live?
India
35%
30%
20%
10%
China
Nigeria
Indonesia
Philippines
Pakistan
0%
Slide 6
from Canbur & Sumner
6
http://www.voxeu.org/article/poor-countries-or-poor-people-new-geography-global-poverty
Compare: Nigeria vs Bangladesh
http://tinyurl.com/globgap
Bangladesh a
“LIC”
Bangladesh
resource
poor
Nigeria
Now a “MIC”
Nigeria
resource
rich
Slide 7
7
Something is changing for better
but …
Resources don’t benefit country if wealth flows out
GDP / cap doesn’t mean food for all
Indices of poverty, hunger all decreasing
Increasingly, govmts are uplifting all
1
8
2050 will be a very different world
Thank you!
Contact:
[email protected] [please disturb]
[email protected]
More information, free
PowerPoint slides
www.sfu.ca/global-nutrition
“Stable poor countries are
increasing GNI /capita”
Brookings
Poorer
100% rIcher
$500pa
/cap
Nigeria
$5000pa
Fragile
Bangladesh
India
2000 → 2005
China
Stable
Animation
10
Take home message
• Trends predict: hunger will be history mid-century
• This doesn’t help 15000 children born today who
will not reach their 5th birthday.
• Long term optimism & short term impatience are
appropriate
The End
11
Slide 11
Slide 7
Declaration of Conflict of Interest
I,
Allan Davison, Sarah Luthe Kyuragi,
Smita Pakhale, Kris Roberts
declare that in the past 3 years:
I have received manufacturer funding from the following companies*:
None
I have done consulting work for the following companies*:
None
I have done speaking engagements for the following companies*:
None
I or my family hold individual shares in the following*:
None
*pharmaceutical or medical/dental equipment
1
Global shifts: What’s their impact
on the roadmap to make hunger history?
Sarah Luthe Kyuragi (MD)
National Center for Global Health
& Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
Allan Davison (PhD)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Kris Roberts (MSc student)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Smita Pakhale (MD)
Ottawa, Hospital Research Inst
& University of Ottawa Canada 2
5.0
UNICEF 2011 “Beyond the bottom billion”
Top 1%
$3000 / day
Inflation adjusted PPP
10.0
3A World income
$1000s / person
3B Trickle down?3
1 Quintile
Poverty trap
< $1.25 / day
0.0
3
1500
Top 1%
$3000 / day
< $2 / day
Bar width = income / day
2000
Bottom 1% won’t live to 5 y
Slide 4
50
30
MDG1 [extreme poverty]
10
1960
1980
2000
2020
Global stunting
MDG1 indicator [Hunger]
Number of stunted (billions)
% of people below
$1.25 PPP / d
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Bars show absolute numbers
4
UNICEF & WHO www.who.int/entity/nutgrowthdb/jme_unicef_who_wb.pdf
Deaths per 1000 live births
Global under-5 mortality rate
80
60
Predicted
40
1990
5
2000
2010
Three of four in MICs
Where do the poor live?
India
35%
30%
20%
10%
China
Nigeria
Indonesia
Philippines
Pakistan
0%
Slide 6
from Canbur & Sumner
6
http://www.voxeu.org/article/poor-countries-or-poor-people-new-geography-global-poverty
Compare: Nigeria vs Bangladesh
http://tinyurl.com/globgap
Bangladesh a
“LIC”
Bangladesh
resource
poor
Nigeria
Now a “MIC”
Nigeria
resource
rich
Slide 7
7
Something is changing for better
but …
Resources don’t benefit country if wealth flows out
GDP / cap doesn’t mean food for all
Indices of poverty, hunger all decreasing
Increasingly, govmts are uplifting all
1
8
2050 will be a very different world
Thank you!
Contact:
[email protected] [please disturb]
[email protected]
More information, free
PowerPoint slides
www.sfu.ca/global-nutrition
“Stable poor countries are
increasing GNI /capita”
Brookings
Poorer
100% rIcher
$500pa
/cap
Nigeria
$5000pa
Fragile
Bangladesh
India
2000 → 2005
China
Stable
Animation
10
Take home message
• Trends predict: hunger will be history mid-century
• This doesn’t help 15000 children born today who
will not reach their 5th birthday.
• Long term optimism & short term impatience are
appropriate
The End
11
Slide 11
Slide 8
Declaration of Conflict of Interest
I,
Allan Davison, Sarah Luthe Kyuragi,
Smita Pakhale, Kris Roberts
declare that in the past 3 years:
I have received manufacturer funding from the following companies*:
None
I have done consulting work for the following companies*:
None
I have done speaking engagements for the following companies*:
None
I or my family hold individual shares in the following*:
None
*pharmaceutical or medical/dental equipment
1
Global shifts: What’s their impact
on the roadmap to make hunger history?
Sarah Luthe Kyuragi (MD)
National Center for Global Health
& Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
Allan Davison (PhD)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Kris Roberts (MSc student)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Smita Pakhale (MD)
Ottawa, Hospital Research Inst
& University of Ottawa Canada 2
5.0
UNICEF 2011 “Beyond the bottom billion”
Top 1%
$3000 / day
Inflation adjusted PPP
10.0
3A World income
$1000s / person
3B Trickle down?3
1 Quintile
Poverty trap
< $1.25 / day
0.0
3
1500
Top 1%
$3000 / day
< $2 / day
Bar width = income / day
2000
Bottom 1% won’t live to 5 y
Slide 4
50
30
MDG1 [extreme poverty]
10
1960
1980
2000
2020
Global stunting
MDG1 indicator [Hunger]
Number of stunted (billions)
% of people below
$1.25 PPP / d
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Bars show absolute numbers
4
UNICEF & WHO www.who.int/entity/nutgrowthdb/jme_unicef_who_wb.pdf
Deaths per 1000 live births
Global under-5 mortality rate
80
60
Predicted
40
1990
5
2000
2010
Three of four in MICs
Where do the poor live?
India
35%
30%
20%
10%
China
Nigeria
Indonesia
Philippines
Pakistan
0%
Slide 6
from Canbur & Sumner
6
http://www.voxeu.org/article/poor-countries-or-poor-people-new-geography-global-poverty
Compare: Nigeria vs Bangladesh
http://tinyurl.com/globgap
Bangladesh a
“LIC”
Bangladesh
resource
poor
Nigeria
Now a “MIC”
Nigeria
resource
rich
Slide 7
7
Something is changing for better
but …
Resources don’t benefit country if wealth flows out
GDP / cap doesn’t mean food for all
Indices of poverty, hunger all decreasing
Increasingly, govmts are uplifting all
1
8
2050 will be a very different world
Thank you!
Contact:
[email protected] [please disturb]
[email protected]
More information, free
PowerPoint slides
www.sfu.ca/global-nutrition
“Stable poor countries are
increasing GNI /capita”
Brookings
Poorer
100% rIcher
$500pa
/cap
Nigeria
$5000pa
Fragile
Bangladesh
India
2000 → 2005
China
Stable
Animation
10
Take home message
• Trends predict: hunger will be history mid-century
• This doesn’t help 15000 children born today who
will not reach their 5th birthday.
• Long term optimism & short term impatience are
appropriate
The End
11
Slide 11
Slide 9
Declaration of Conflict of Interest
I,
Allan Davison, Sarah Luthe Kyuragi,
Smita Pakhale, Kris Roberts
declare that in the past 3 years:
I have received manufacturer funding from the following companies*:
None
I have done consulting work for the following companies*:
None
I have done speaking engagements for the following companies*:
None
I or my family hold individual shares in the following*:
None
*pharmaceutical or medical/dental equipment
1
Global shifts: What’s their impact
on the roadmap to make hunger history?
Sarah Luthe Kyuragi (MD)
National Center for Global Health
& Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
Allan Davison (PhD)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Kris Roberts (MSc student)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Smita Pakhale (MD)
Ottawa, Hospital Research Inst
& University of Ottawa Canada 2
5.0
UNICEF 2011 “Beyond the bottom billion”
Top 1%
$3000 / day
Inflation adjusted PPP
10.0
3A World income
$1000s / person
3B Trickle down?3
1 Quintile
Poverty trap
< $1.25 / day
0.0
3
1500
Top 1%
$3000 / day
< $2 / day
Bar width = income / day
2000
Bottom 1% won’t live to 5 y
Slide 4
50
30
MDG1 [extreme poverty]
10
1960
1980
2000
2020
Global stunting
MDG1 indicator [Hunger]
Number of stunted (billions)
% of people below
$1.25 PPP / d
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Bars show absolute numbers
4
UNICEF & WHO www.who.int/entity/nutgrowthdb/jme_unicef_who_wb.pdf
Deaths per 1000 live births
Global under-5 mortality rate
80
60
Predicted
40
1990
5
2000
2010
Three of four in MICs
Where do the poor live?
India
35%
30%
20%
10%
China
Nigeria
Indonesia
Philippines
Pakistan
0%
Slide 6
from Canbur & Sumner
6
http://www.voxeu.org/article/poor-countries-or-poor-people-new-geography-global-poverty
Compare: Nigeria vs Bangladesh
http://tinyurl.com/globgap
Bangladesh a
“LIC”
Bangladesh
resource
poor
Nigeria
Now a “MIC”
Nigeria
resource
rich
Slide 7
7
Something is changing for better
but …
Resources don’t benefit country if wealth flows out
GDP / cap doesn’t mean food for all
Indices of poverty, hunger all decreasing
Increasingly, govmts are uplifting all
1
8
2050 will be a very different world
Thank you!
Contact:
[email protected] [please disturb]
[email protected]
More information, free
PowerPoint slides
www.sfu.ca/global-nutrition
“Stable poor countries are
increasing GNI /capita”
Brookings
Poorer
100% rIcher
$500pa
/cap
Nigeria
$5000pa
Fragile
Bangladesh
India
2000 → 2005
China
Stable
Animation
10
Take home message
• Trends predict: hunger will be history mid-century
• This doesn’t help 15000 children born today who
will not reach their 5th birthday.
• Long term optimism & short term impatience are
appropriate
The End
11
Slide 11
Slide 10
Declaration of Conflict of Interest
I,
Allan Davison, Sarah Luthe Kyuragi,
Smita Pakhale, Kris Roberts
declare that in the past 3 years:
I have received manufacturer funding from the following companies*:
None
I have done consulting work for the following companies*:
None
I have done speaking engagements for the following companies*:
None
I or my family hold individual shares in the following*:
None
*pharmaceutical or medical/dental equipment
1
Global shifts: What’s their impact
on the roadmap to make hunger history?
Sarah Luthe Kyuragi (MD)
National Center for Global Health
& Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
Allan Davison (PhD)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Kris Roberts (MSc student)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Smita Pakhale (MD)
Ottawa, Hospital Research Inst
& University of Ottawa Canada 2
5.0
UNICEF 2011 “Beyond the bottom billion”
Top 1%
$3000 / day
Inflation adjusted PPP
10.0
3A World income
$1000s / person
3B Trickle down?3
1 Quintile
Poverty trap
< $1.25 / day
0.0
3
1500
Top 1%
$3000 / day
< $2 / day
Bar width = income / day
2000
Bottom 1% won’t live to 5 y
Slide 4
50
30
MDG1 [extreme poverty]
10
1960
1980
2000
2020
Global stunting
MDG1 indicator [Hunger]
Number of stunted (billions)
% of people below
$1.25 PPP / d
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Bars show absolute numbers
4
UNICEF & WHO www.who.int/entity/nutgrowthdb/jme_unicef_who_wb.pdf
Deaths per 1000 live births
Global under-5 mortality rate
80
60
Predicted
40
1990
5
2000
2010
Three of four in MICs
Where do the poor live?
India
35%
30%
20%
10%
China
Nigeria
Indonesia
Philippines
Pakistan
0%
Slide 6
from Canbur & Sumner
6
http://www.voxeu.org/article/poor-countries-or-poor-people-new-geography-global-poverty
Compare: Nigeria vs Bangladesh
http://tinyurl.com/globgap
Bangladesh a
“LIC”
Bangladesh
resource
poor
Nigeria
Now a “MIC”
Nigeria
resource
rich
Slide 7
7
Something is changing for better
but …
Resources don’t benefit country if wealth flows out
GDP / cap doesn’t mean food for all
Indices of poverty, hunger all decreasing
Increasingly, govmts are uplifting all
1
8
2050 will be a very different world
Thank you!
Contact:
[email protected] [please disturb]
[email protected]
More information, free
PowerPoint slides
www.sfu.ca/global-nutrition
“Stable poor countries are
increasing GNI /capita”
Brookings
Poorer
100% rIcher
$500pa
/cap
Nigeria
$5000pa
Fragile
Bangladesh
India
2000 → 2005
China
Stable
Animation
10
Take home message
• Trends predict: hunger will be history mid-century
• This doesn’t help 15000 children born today who
will not reach their 5th birthday.
• Long term optimism & short term impatience are
appropriate
The End
11
Slide 11
Slide 11
Declaration of Conflict of Interest
I,
Allan Davison, Sarah Luthe Kyuragi,
Smita Pakhale, Kris Roberts
declare that in the past 3 years:
I have received manufacturer funding from the following companies*:
None
I have done consulting work for the following companies*:
None
I have done speaking engagements for the following companies*:
None
I or my family hold individual shares in the following*:
None
*pharmaceutical or medical/dental equipment
1
Global shifts: What’s their impact
on the roadmap to make hunger history?
Sarah Luthe Kyuragi (MD)
National Center for Global Health
& Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
Allan Davison (PhD)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Kris Roberts (MSc student)
Simon Fraser University
Vancouver, Canada
Smita Pakhale (MD)
Ottawa, Hospital Research Inst
& University of Ottawa Canada 2
5.0
UNICEF 2011 “Beyond the bottom billion”
Top 1%
$3000 / day
Inflation adjusted PPP
10.0
3A World income
$1000s / person
3B Trickle down?3
1 Quintile
Poverty trap
< $1.25 / day
0.0
3
1500
Top 1%
$3000 / day
< $2 / day
Bar width = income / day
2000
Bottom 1% won’t live to 5 y
Slide 4
50
30
MDG1 [extreme poverty]
10
1960
1980
2000
2020
Global stunting
MDG1 indicator [Hunger]
Number of stunted (billions)
% of people below
$1.25 PPP / d
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Bars show absolute numbers
4
UNICEF & WHO www.who.int/entity/nutgrowthdb/jme_unicef_who_wb.pdf
Deaths per 1000 live births
Global under-5 mortality rate
80
60
Predicted
40
1990
5
2000
2010
Three of four in MICs
Where do the poor live?
India
35%
30%
20%
10%
China
Nigeria
Indonesia
Philippines
Pakistan
0%
Slide 6
from Canbur & Sumner
6
http://www.voxeu.org/article/poor-countries-or-poor-people-new-geography-global-poverty
Compare: Nigeria vs Bangladesh
http://tinyurl.com/globgap
Bangladesh a
“LIC”
Bangladesh
resource
poor
Nigeria
Now a “MIC”
Nigeria
resource
rich
Slide 7
7
Something is changing for better
but …
Resources don’t benefit country if wealth flows out
GDP / cap doesn’t mean food for all
Indices of poverty, hunger all decreasing
Increasingly, govmts are uplifting all
1
8
2050 will be a very different world
Thank you!
Contact:
[email protected] [please disturb]
[email protected]
More information, free
PowerPoint slides
www.sfu.ca/global-nutrition
“Stable poor countries are
increasing GNI /capita”
Brookings
Poorer
100% rIcher
$500pa
/cap
Nigeria
$5000pa
Fragile
Bangladesh
India
2000 → 2005
China
Stable
Animation
10
Take home message
• Trends predict: hunger will be history mid-century
• This doesn’t help 15000 children born today who
will not reach their 5th birthday.
• Long term optimism & short term impatience are
appropriate
The End
11
Slide 11