Climate Research in Malta An Overview of Activities

Dr. Noel Aquilina, Mr. James Ciarlo`, Mr. Norbert Bonnici Department of Physics Erin Serracino Inglott Hall, 4 th November 2010

Overview

• • • •

Timeline The Models Capacity Building

•

Models’ Performance

• • • •

Recent Work MedCLIVAR Workshop Current Projects 1

st

Climate Summer School MCT plans

2

MedCLIVAR Workshop 1 PRECIS 1.8.2 update

Timeline

RegCM4 Workshop

2 0 0 7

PRECIS 1.7.1 installation & testing

2 0 0 8

PRECIS Workshop

2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0

PRECIS Sulfate Research PRECIS license PRECIS 1.7.1 operational; 3 undergraduate students PRECIS 1.9.1 update 2 undergraduate; 1 MSc student WRF installation MCT 1st Climate Summer School MedCLIVAR Workshop 2 RegCM4 testing 3

Introduction to the Models

4

PRECIS

P

roviding

RE

gional

C

limates for

I

mpacts

S

tudies

PRECIS has been developed and disseminated with funding from the: o UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA), o UK Department for International Development (DFID), o UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) o United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), and o the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) • PRECIS is based on the Hadley Centre's regional climate modelling system.

• To help generate high-resolution climate change information for many regions.

• The intention is to make PRECIS freely available to groups of developing countries.

• These scenarios can be used in impact, vulnerability and adaptation studies.

5

PRECIS

6

PRECIS

7

RegCM4

• • •

PRECIS

License-based MOSES 1 & 2.2 LSMs Different Schemes o Planetary Boundary Layer o o o Radiation Precipitation Chemistry model (Sulfate) • • • •

RegCM4

Community-based BATS & CLM LSMs Different Schemes o Planetary Boundary Layer o o Radiation Precipitation o o Chemistry model (Dust, Sulfate, Organic Carbon, Black Carbon) Clouds o o Ocean Flux Pressure Gradient Force Lake model 8

RegCM4

Malta in Climate Models

9

WRF

Numerical Weather Prediction Model called

W

eather

R

esearch and

F

orecasting (WRF) • Is a next-generation mesoscale model designed to serve both operational forecasting and atmospheric research needs.

• It features multiple dynamical cores, a 3-D variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system.

• A software architecture allowing for computational parallelism and system extensibility.

• WRF is suitable for a broad spectrum of applications across scales going down to 1 km.

• Has an easy to use GUI and excellent for training in meteorology.

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WRF

11

WRF

[Source: National Observatory of Athens] 12

WRF

• Collaborative research o University of Aveiro & University of Lisbon • BSc (Hons) 3rd year projects o Examples: • Dynamics of Hurricane Katrina 2005 • Temperature extremes in the Mediterranean • Attraction between Cities and Cyclones 13

Capacity Building

Workstations

2 Proc.

4 Proc.

ALBERT

768 Proc.

• PRECIS on 2 nodes (Limited to 12 Proc. per simulation) • RegCM4 (runs on MPI) • WRF installed & in testing 14

Models’ Performance

Considering a 30 year simulation, Europe, 50 km: 100x100 cells • PRECIS o o Computer 4 (2P): ~39 days Computer 2 (4P): ~16 days o Computer Cluster (12P): ~11 days • RegCM4 o Computer Cluster: ~8 days • WRF: in testing phase 15

Recent Work

• • •

PRECIS

Undergraduate Projects 2009/10 o Validation of the model in the Mediterranean (and surrounding) region from different perspectives.

• • • Vertical Levels (Nadine Napoli) Climate Zones (Denise M. Cilia) Sulfate Aerosols (James Ciarlo`) Current Research o Evaluation of the Chemistry model (Noel Aquilina, James Ciarlo`) Undergraduate Projects 2010/11 o o Study of the ENSO around Australia (Candy Spiteri) Comparative study of PRECIS’s LSMs (William Healey) 16

Undergraduate Projects 2009/10

Scope: Working on the same lines as MedCLIVAR (the

Med

iterranean

CLI

mate

VAR

iability project) that coordinates and promotes the study of the Mediterranean climate • • • Why the Mediterranean Basin?

Enclosed by 3 major continents.

Surrounded almost entirely by mountains. Very unique and sensitive to climate changes.

• • • • • • • Simulation details GCM-HadAM3P PRECIS (v 1.7.1) used 1960-1990 Resolution: 0.44° x 0.44° (50 km) 100 x 100 cells 57°N-18°N 16°W-46°E 17

PRECIS: Validation

Validation of the PRECIS Regional Climate Model Comparison of Measured and Modelled data

ESRL Solar Radiation at Surface Level 1960-1990 Average PRECIS

18

PRECIS: Validation

Validation of the PRECIS Regional Climate Model Comparison of Measured and Modelled data 19

PRECIS: Vertical Layers

Parameter variation at 5 vertical levels in the atmosphere against Radiosonde data Source: (Napoli N. Dissertation 2010) 20

PRECIS: Climate Zones

Evaluation of temperature and precipitation within different climate zones Temperature Total Precipitation Rate

P R E C I S

1960-1990 Average

M O N I I T O R N G S I O N T A T S

Source: (Cilia D.M. Dissertation 2010) 21

Future Projections

Temperature IS INCREASING Source: (Cilia D.M. Dissertation 2010) 22

Future Projections

Total Precipitation Rate IS DECREASING Is this natural variability or climate change? – MORE RESEARCH Source: (Cilia D.M. Dissertation 2010) 23

PRECIS: Sulfate Aerosol

Analysis of the climate impacts caused by Sulfate Aerosols in the Atmosphere 1960-1990 Average Source: (Ciarlo` J. Dissertation 2010) 24

PRECIS: Sulfate Aerosol

Analysis of the climate impacts caused by Sulfate Aerosol in the Atmosphere

Parameter

Surface Temperature Solar Radiation Thermal Radiation Daily Temperature Range Convective Precipitation Relative Humidity

Max Bias Mean Bias Min Bias

1.59

0.82

0.05

-6.99

-10.45

-15.63

3.77

-0.32

-1.48

-3.01

1.01

-1.98

-3.08

-5.46

-1.37

-3.52

-5.80

-8.38

Source: (Ciarlo` J. Dissertation 2010) 25

ESF-MedCLIVAR Workshop

23 rd -25 th September 2010 ICTP, Trieste Workshop on: Scenarios of Mediterranean Climate Change under

Increased Radiative Active Gas Concentration and the Role of Aerosols.

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PRECIS: Current Research

Aquilina N.J., Ciarlo` J.M. (2010). “Validation of PRECIS: Effect of sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere”. In preparation for submission in Climatic Change.

27

Undergraduate Projects 2010/11

Scope: Established & strengthening ties with CSIRO (Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Research Organization) and comparing results with their model, CCAM (Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model) • • Why Australia?

Large variety of different climates Complex island system in the ITCZ • • • • • • • Simulation details: GCM-HadAM3Q0/ECHAM5 PRECIS (v 1.9.1) used 1960-1990/ 1990-2020 Resolution: 0.44° x 0.44° (50 km) 174 x 150 cells 22°N-49°S 83°E-166°E 28

PRECIS 1.7.1

MOSES I

LSM Project

1960-1990 Sulfate Aitken mode PRECIS 1.9.1

MOSES 2.2

29

ENSO Project

30

MSc using RegCM4

Study of interaction between Oscillation Patterns around Europe and their influence on aerosol transportation.

Example: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) NAO NAO+ 31

Example: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) 32

Example: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) 33

•

1

st

Climate Summer School

8 Students attended • • • • • • Day 1: Introduction to Meteorology I Day 2: Introduction to Meteorology II Day 3: Data Mining; Post Processing Software installation Day 4: Using Panoply data viewer; Introduction to PRECIS Day 5: The PRECIS outputs Day 6: Introduction to NCL • 2 nd o o o Climate Summer School New Models (RegCM4, WRF) Handle PP Software (NCL, IDV) Mini-Project 34

Immediate Plans

• Gain more experience o Climate Research, Different Models, Climate Statistics • Encourage more people to work in the MCT o o Physicists, Chemists, Mathematicians, Programmers, and Statisticians.

There is a lot of data available to be analysed – summer research experiences are available

• Prepare interested students through new study units.

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New Study-Units

Fundamentals of Meteorology

• • • • Study Aims Scientific understanding of meteorology Physics of weather systems Distinguishing and identifying weather systems from climate data Applying meteorology to climate research

A Multidisciplinary approach to Climate Research

• • • • • Study Aims Scientific understanding of climate Operating climate models Post-processing Using appropriate Statistical methods Hands-on experience to climate research Hopefully to be offered from academic year 2011/12 36

Long-Term Plans

• Collaborative and MSc / PhD / post-doc research o Development of part of the chemical model with ICTP o Needed: • Physicists, Chemists, Mathematicians, Statisticians, Programmers • Associated projects o Studying long range transport of pollutants o Evaluate different schemes o Apply different statistical treatments to climate data o Testing out new code 37

International Collaborations

Sponsored by: • International Council for Science (ICSU) • World Meteorological Organization (WMO) • Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO The two overarching objectives of the WCRP are to determine: • the predictability of climate • the effect of human activities on climate These underpin & directly address the needs of the UNFCCC.

A multi-disciplinary approach: • Organizes large-scale observational and modelling projects • Facilitates focus on aspects of climate too large and complex to be addressed by any one nation or single scientific discipline The 2005-2015 WCRP strategy will promote the creation of comprehensive and reliable global climate observations and models 38

CORDEX

CO

ordinated

R

egional climate

D

ownscaling

EX

periment

CORDEX is intended to organize an international coordinated framework.

• To produce an improved generation of regional climate change • projections world-wide To use results for input into impact and adaptation studies within the AR5 timeline and beyond MED-CORDEX will make use of both regional atmospheric climate models and regional coupled systems. • Developing new experiments to test new components and improved schemes, based on the HyMeX (Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment) field campaign outcomes (long term simulations) CORDEX WRF-Community: This would give an opportunity to produce multi-physics experiments, as opposite (an in addition) to the multi-model experiments.

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CORDEX

40

The MCT on the Web

UoM-Physics Webpage: http://www.um.edu.mt/science/ physics/climate_studies Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/grou p.php?gid=155998907759229 41

Acknowledgements

Nick Archer Marcus Thatcher Jack Katzfey John McGregor http://cmar.csiro.au

Charles V Sammut Louis Zammit Mangion Pierre-Sandre Farrugia Denis Cutajar Adam Gauci Alessio Magro Shawn Cassar http://um.edu.mt/science/physics Graziano Giuliani Stefano Cozzini http://portal.ictp.it/esp/research/esp models/regcm3 Simon Tucker Chloe Morrell David Hein David Hassell http://precis.metoffice.com/ Mary Hailey Dennis Shea http://ncar.ucar.edu/ 42

Thank You

W:

MALTA CLIMATE TEAM

http://www.um.edu.mt/science/physics/research/climate_studies E: [email protected]

T: +356 2340 3036 43