Transcript Global Economic Crisis

Global @dvisor Wave 5
Global Economic Crisis: The End of the
Beginning, or the Beginning of the End…
May 2009
Nobody’s Unpredictable
Methodology
23,000 online surveys. 23 countries.
Semi annual study fielded in April & November.
N = 1,000 completes per country.
95% confidence level, +/- 3.1% margin of error.
75% of world’s GDP covered:
 US, Canada, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, South Korea,
China, Japan, Australia, Russia, India, Czech Republic,
Poland, Hungary, Turkey, Sweden, Netherlands, Belgium,
Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and Great Britain.
© 2009 Ipsos
Balanced by age, gender, city population, and
education levels.
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Global @dvisor May 2009
Key Findings
Nobody’s Unpredictable
Key Points: Economic Crisis
The Overall Confidence Average has stabilized.
Stabilization is fueled by US confidence improving, along
with India and China.
BUT, previously unaffected countries are now feeling the
ripple affects, especially in the BRICs with Brazil and Russia.
European countries are also showing less resilience.
 Drops in economic confidence across the board in all European
countries except Italy.
© 2009 Ipsos
Crisis is personal and local – jobs. Global consensus as
most salient issue.
Global @dvisor May 2009
4
4
Key Points: Coping Behaviors
In response to the crisis, a super-majority of the world’s
consumers cut their budgets in November 08. These cuts
have not deepened – but remain the same.
 73% are cutting back expenses in some way.
Entertainment is the first on the chopping block (with luxury
goods, vacations, and clothing not far behind).
In response to the crisis, citizens prefer that governments cut
services before increasing taxes.
If governments tax, citizens prefer “sin taxes” on cigarettes
and alcohol.
© 2009 Ipsos
 The rank order of the cuts, however, varies across countries.
5
Global @dvisor May 2009
The Global Agenda
Nobody’s Unpredictable
6
The global agenda is all about jobs…
32%
Unemployment and jobs
Corruption
Education
Environmental Issues
Taxes
Immigration control
Threats against the environment
Terrorism
Maintaining social programs
Rise of extremism
Climate change
53%
25%
21%
20%
20%
18%
19%
20%
18%
17%
23%
19%
16%
16%
16%
14%
13%
10%
11%
14%
11%
11%
14%
11%
10%
9%
9%
10%
10%
7%
9%
11%
8%
7%
Wave 1 May 2007
Wave 4 Nov 2008
Wave 5 April 2009
Changing Citizen
Demands
© 2009 Ipsos
Poverty and social inequality
Moral decline
41%
40%
35%
35%
37%
35%
34%
32%
31%
34%
Crime and violence
Health care
Global Agenda
A4a. Which three of the following topics do you find the most worrying in your country?
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Global @dvisor May 2009
US agenda has radically changed
US Agenda
19%
Taxes
Moral decline
Crime and violence
20%
18%
21%
18%
20%
Terrorism
18%
17%
15%
17%
15%
20%
14%
12%
13%
10%
7%
5%
6%
6%
8%
5%
5%
10%
4%
5%
Environment
Threats against the environment
Maintaining social programs
Climate change
Rise of extremism
27%
30%
18%
22%
24%
28%
22%
23%
Immigration control
Education
63%
35%
35%
30%
Health care
Corruption
55%
35%
33%
34%
Wave 1 May 2007
Wave 4 Nov 2008
Wave 5 April 2009
Increased demand for
economic solutions.
All other priorities are
out, for now!
© 2009 Ipsos
Unemployment and jobs
A4a. Which three of the following topics do you find the most worrying in your country?
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Global @dvisor May 2009
Economic Confidence
Nobody’s Unpredictable
9
Economic Crisis
Average of all countries
(Very Good + Somewhat Good)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
54%
55%
50%
43%
40%
31%
30%
29%
20%
10%
0%
Oct-07
Apr-08
Nov-08
A3. Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in
[INSERT COUNTRY]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
Apr-09
© 2009 Ipsos
Apr-07
10
Global @dvisor May 2009
Economic Crisis
EUROPE continues to dip while the rest of the regions rise
and stabilize
(Very Good + Somewhat Good)
100%
90%
80%
72%
70%
71%
60%
61%
50%
50%
45%
70%
62%
56%
51%
47%
40%
56%
48%
53%
48%
38%
40%
30%
39%
35%
32%
20%
19%
10%
32%
34%
38%
32%
30%
23%
19%
13%
22%
11%
0%
LATAM
Oct-07
USA
Apr-08
APAC
European Union
Nov-08
G-8 Countries
A3. Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in
[INSERT COUNTRY]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
Apr-09
Bric
© 2009 Ipsos
Apr-07
11
Global @dvisor May 2009
BRICS – Drops in Russia and Brazil
(Very Good + Somewhat Good)
100%
90%
92%
85%
90%
88%
88%
80%
73%
70%
65%
60%
68%
53%
70%
61%
52%
61%
56%
56%
50%
40%
65%
42%
46%
35%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Oct-07
Brazil
Apr-08
Russia
India
Nov-08
China
A3. Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in
[INSERT COUNTRY]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
Apr-09
© 2009 Ipsos
Apr-07
12
Global @dvisor May 2009
LATAM – Brazil finally feels the economic slump
(Very Good + Somewhat Good)
100%
90%
80%
70%
61%
60%
56%
53%
50%
50%
40%
42%
56%
32%
26%
30%
20%
29%
20%
24%
23%
18%
19%
10%
0%
Oct-07
Apr-08
Argentina
Brazil
Nov-08
Mexico
A3. Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in
[INSERT COUNTRY]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
Apr-09
© 2009 Ipsos
Apr-07
13
Global @dvisor May 2009
Europe – Only Italy shows upward signs
90%
(Very Good + Somewhat Good)
78%
80%
71%
70%
72%
69%
64%
60%
50%
59%
55%
50%
58%
64%
62%
55%
67%
60%
53%
54%
50%
52%
51%
45%
44%
40%
30%
46%
39%
28%
31%
27%
30%
24%
24%
20%
17%
10%
13%
10%
15%
17%
13%
10%
9%
10%
11%
8%
0%
Italy
Germany
Oct-07
France
Apr-08
The Netherlands
Poland
Nov-08
Spain
A3. Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in
[INSERT COUNTRY]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
Sweden
Apr-09
Great Britain
© 2009 Ipsos
Apr-07
14
Global @dvisor May 2009
… while consumers believe cutting back is essential, they
also believe that government regulation is needed
Global Figures – 22 countries
(Top 2 Box Agree)
70%
60%
50%
40%
54%
54%
55%
48%
48%
Crisis
Impact
39%
38%
37%
34%
29%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Oct '07
Apr '08
Global
Nov '08
US
B1_1. (It is in [Country]'s interest that our big industries should be controlled by the government) - Do you
strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with each of the following
statements... It is in [Country]'s interest that our big industries should be controlled by the government Top 2
Box AGREE.
Global @dvisor May 2009
Apr-09
© 2009 Ipsos
Apr '07
15
So what’s next???
Some indicators of economic confidence
Total
The unemployment rate in my country goes down over a
few months
63%
My national currency increases in value
35%
The stock market makes continuous large scale gains over
several weeks
33%
I hear that someone who I know who lost their job found a
new one
24%
More media stories saying the economy is improving
My country's leader says that we have turned a corner and
that there are better days ahead
13%
© 2009 Ipsos
The price of homes in my community start to rise
21%
11%
[First/ Second]
For you
Global
@dvisor
Maypersonally,
2009 which of the following will be the best indicator that the economy is improving? And which would be the second best indicator?
16
© 2009 Ipsos
Economic Downturn and Sector and
Company Reputation
Global @dvisor May 2009
17
The Banking and Automobile industries are the two
sectors globally that have shown a decline. All others
have remained constant
Global Figures – 22 countries
(Top 2 Box Favorable)
60%
55%
50%
49%
46%
45%
40%
46%
42%
43%
43%
42%
40%
40%
41%
42%
40%
36%
34%
39%
35%
30%
25%
20%
Oct-07
Banking Industry
Apr-08
Automobile Industry
Nov-08
Average of All Sectors
C1. (Top2Box Summary (Favorable)) - Please indicate your overall opinion of the following industries and
sectors...
Apr-09
© 2009 Ipsos
Apr-07
18
Global @dvisor May 2009
Some examples of sectors…….
Global Figures – 22 countries
(Top 2 Box Favorable)
70%
58%
60%
59%
58%
54%
50%
44%
44%
40%
43%
39%
44%
41%
38%
36%
41%
41%
41%
42%
34%
30%
44%
43%
42%
34%
33%
32%
32%
Oct '07
Apr '08
Nov '08
20%
PC industry
Oil and gas industry
Soft drink industry
Beer industry
Apr-09
Consumer packaged food industry
C1. (Top2Box Summary (Favorable)) - Please indicate your overall opinion of the following industries and
sectors...
© 2009 Ipsos
Apr '07
19
Global @dvisor May 2009
A look across some multi-national companies…
Global Figures – 22 countries
(Top 2 Box Favorable)
70%
65%
59%
60%
55%
51%
48%
51%
38%
48%
38%
34%
37%
32%
34%
30%
31%
34%
33%
23%
23%
21%
20%
53%
54%
46%
40%
63%
58%
55%
50%
64%
17%
18%
20%
18%
10%
Microsoft
Oct '07
Apple
Apr '08
Toyota
Shell
Nov '08
HSBC
F2. (Top2Box Summary (Favorable)) - Now, taking into account all of the things which you think are
important, how favorable or unfavorable is your overall opinion or impression of each company or
organization?
Global @dvisor May 2009
AIG
Apr-09
Merrill Lynch
© 2009 Ipsos
Apr '07
20
Consumer Coping Behavior
Nobody’s Unpredictable 21
Cutbacks in spending have remained constant
Total
South Korea
Mexico
Argentina
China
France
Russia
India
Italy
The United States
Brazil
Turkey
Great Britain
Australia
Japan
Spain
Canada
Poland
The Czech Republic
Belgium
Germany
73%
88%
86%
85%
81%
81%
81%
78%
77%
77%
77%
76%
75%
74%
73%
72%
68%
67%
64%
64%
57%
J3. Given the current state of the global economy, have you and your family had to cut back on your
household spending recently?
+1%
+1%
+3%
+1%
+1%
+8%
+2%
+2%
-3%
+1%
-8%
-2%
-1%
+4%
-2%
-1%
+5%
-6%
-2%
© 2009 Ipsos
Change from
last wave
% Cutting Back
22
Global @dvisor May 2009
Specific Cut Backs
Average of all countries
Change from
last wave
Entertainment
74%
Vacations
71%
Luxury items
70%
Clothing
61%
Energy
consumption
53%
Gasoline/driving
42%
Groceries
41%
Cell Phone
34%
Cable TV
Education
23%
11%
J4. What are the specific things that you and your family are cutting back on these days? Base:
respondents who have cut back in J3
-2%
-2%
-2%
2%
-6%
1%
-
© 2009 Ipsos
% Cutting Back
23
Global @dvisor May 2009
Cutbacks on Groceries – Alcoholic beverages
are the top items to cut
% Total cutting back on grocery items
Alcoholic beverages
44%
Candies, cookies, sweets
35%
Wellness items
22%
Personal care and cosmetics
20%
Soft drinks and juice
15%
Bottled water
13%
Instant noodles
10%
Meat/ fish
10%
Fresh fruits/vegetables
7%
Health care items
Baby care
5%
5%
Coffee/ tea
4%
Rice
4%
Bread
4%
J5_3. [First/ Second] During difficult economic times for your household, which of the following grocery
items would you prioritize cutting back your household spending on first? And what is your second priority?
© 2009 Ipsos
Household cleaning products
6%
24
Global @dvisor May 2009
The Economic Crisis and Social
Disruption
Nobody’s Unpredictable 25
Job losses are hitting LATAM/BRIC countries the
hardest
% Has personally lost, or knows someone who lost their job in the past 6 months
LATAM
81%
BRIC
79%
North America
72%
APAC
70%
Europe
66%
K1. In the past six months, the global economy has experienced large scale job losses and economic
cutbacks. Have you or someone you know lost their job in the past six months as a result of the current
economic situation?
Global @dvisor May 2009
© 2009 Ipsos
G-8 Countries
68%
27
Economic Crisis – social affects
% Total
Cannot find a job even though looking for one
30%
Had to ask for financial assistance from friends or
relatives
26%
Had to go on government assistance because are
unemployed
6%
Participated in a violent protest
4%
Participated in a non-violent protest against your local
government
4%
None of these
K2. In the past six months, do any of the following statements apply to you, your family or someone close to
you?
46%
© 2009 Ipsos
Participated in a non-violent protest against
state, provincial or federal governments
13%
28
Global @dvisor May 2009
Confidence in Economic Stimulus
66%
34%
81%
81%
79%
79%
78%
77%
77%
74%
74%
74%
74%
72%
69%
69%
62%
61%
60%
55%
52%
47%
47%
46%
25%
19%
19%
21%
21%
22%
23%
23%
26%
26%
26%
27%
28%
31%
31%
38%
39%
40%
45%
48%
53%
54%
54%
75%
When I hear that governments are spending massive amounts of money to stimulate the economy it makes me feel
that they have no idea what they are doing and the economy is beyond their ability to control
When I hear that governments are spending massive amounts of money to stimulate the economy it makes me feel
that they have a solid plan to get the economy back on track
K2. In the past six months, do any of the following statements apply to you, your family or someone close to
you?
© 2009 Ipsos
Total
Argentina
Hungary
Japan
South Korea
Poland
Great Britain
The Czech Republic
Russia
France
Belgium
Germany
Spain
Brazil
Mexico
The United States
Canada
Sweden
Turkey
Italy
Australia
India
The Netherlands
China
29
Global @dvisor May 2009
Most (60%) Believe Increased Government Regulation
Will Stifle Economic Growth…
Do you believe that increased government regulation will stifle economic growth?
59%
Total
Italy
Great Britain
France
37%
64%
44%
56%
46%
54%
47%
53%
Australia
49%
51%
Belgium
49%
51%
Canada
Sw eden
The Netherlands
Brazil
50%
50%
53%
47%
54%
46%
57%
43%
Argentina
59%
41%
Germ any
59%
41%
Japan
60%
40%
The United States
60%
40%
Hungary
61%
39%
Russia
65%
35%
Spain
66%
34%
Turkey
66%
34%
Poland
69%
31%
South Korea
69%
31%
China
72%
28%
Mexico
72%
28%
83%
India
Great deal/Somewhat
Not really/Not at all
Do you @dvisor
believe that
increased
Global
May
2009 government regulation will stifle economic growth?
17%
Not really/Not at all
© 2009 Ipsos
The Czech Republic
41%
42% Think US Has Done Enough To Kick Start Global
Economy…
In your opinion, has the United States done enough to help kick start the global economy?
42%
58%
62%
India
Brazil
38%
57%
43%
55%
China
46%
53%
Canada
47%
50%
Hungary
France
49%
The United States
49%
Italy
48%
The Czech Republic
47%
50%
52%
51%
52%
53%
45%
Turkey
55%
Australia
43%
57%
Mexico
43%
57%
41%
Belgium
The Netherlands
59%
40%
60%
South Korea
36%
64%
Great Britain
36%
64%
35%
Sweden
65%
Germany
33%
67%
Poland
33%
67%
Argentina
31%
30%
Spain
Japan
Russia
70%
70%
23%
77%
17%
83%
Yes
No
In your opinion,
following countries or groups of countries done enough to help kick start the global economy?
Global
@dvisorhave
Maythe
2009
© 2009 Ipsos
Total
47% Think European Union Has Done Enough To Kick
Start Global Economy…
In your opinion, has the European Union done enough to help kick start the global economy?
47%
53%
70%
Brazil
China
30%
69%
31%
63%
Mexico
37%
56%
India
44%
Hungary
55%
45%
Russia
55%
45%
Italy
51%
Poland
50%
49%
50%
49%
The Netherlands
52%
The Czech Republic
48%
52%
Belgium
47%
53%
Canada
47%
53%
Argentina
46%
France
45%
55%
Germany
45%
55%
Turkey
44%
Sweden
43%
Spain
57%
57%
40%
South Korea
Australia
54%
60%
33%
67%
33%
67%
Japan
30%
70%
Great Britain
30%
70%
The United States
27%
73%
Yes
No
In your opinion,
following countries or groups of countries done enough to help kick start the global economy?
Global
@dvisorhave
Maythe
2009
© 2009 Ipsos
Total
32% Think China Has Done Enough To Kick Start Global
Economy…
In your opinion, has China done enough to help kick start the global economy?
32%
68%
92%
China
Brazil
9%
64%
36%
53%
Russia
47%
43%
India
58%
Argentina
42%
58%
Turkey
42%
58%
Mexico
41%
Hungary
59%
31%
69%
Australia
27%
73%
The Czech Republic
27%
73%
The Netherlands
27%
73%
Belgium
26%
74%
Canada
26%
74%
The United States
24%
South Korea
23%
Germany
76%
77%
22%
78%
France
21%
79%
Sweden
21%
79%
Japan
19%
81%
Poland
19%
82%
Great Britain
18%
Spain
17%
Italy
16%
82%
84%
84%
Yes
No
In your opinion,
following countries or groups of countries done enough to help kick start the global economy?
Global
@dvisorhave
Maythe
2009
© 2009 Ipsos
Total
Government Solutions?
Nobody’s Unpredictable 34
Cut vs. Tax – by Region
What solution is the better one for governments to undertake in order for them to meet
their budgets?
96%
Europe
92%
G-8 Countries
8%
91%
BRIC
9%
88%
North America
APAC
4%
12%
88%
84%
Cut spending
12%
16%
Raise taxes
J9. In your opinion, what solution is the better one for governments to undertake in order for them to meet
their budgets?
© 2009 Ipsos
LATAM
35
Global @dvisor May 2009
Cutting Agenda
% Total preferred funding cutback
Aid to foreign countries
57%
Payment of govt workers
56%
Military spending
43%
Recreation services
32%
Arts/cultural programs
31%
Park maintenance
13%
Public housing
Social welfare
9%
Road maintenance/repairs
9%
Police protection
8%
Emergency planning
7%
Disaster relief
7%
Environmental protection
6%
Public transportation
5%
Education spending
4%
Healthcare
4%
J10_4. [Cut service #1, #2 & #3] Thinking now about cuts that governments can make to their budgets,
please rank the top three things you think should be cut in your country.
© 2009 Ipsos
11%
36
Global @dvisor May 2009
Taxing Agenda – Sin Taxes receive most
support
% Total preferred tax additions
Cigarettes
65%
Alcohol
53%
Junk food (such as
candy and sweets)
Business and/or
corporate tax
35%
25%
Social clubs' fees
25%
Health clubs fees
21%
Congestion tax (for
vehicles)
17%
Soft drinks
13%
Property tax
Movie theaters
9%
Sales tax
8%
Parking
7%
Home purchase tax
7%
Payroll tax
5%
J11_4. [Tax increase #1, #2 & #3] Many governments are considering adding new taxes as a way to meet
their budgets. If you had to raise taxes, please rank your top 3 products or services where you would
support a tax increase.
Global @dvisor May 2009
© 2009 Ipsos
11%
37
Closing Thoughts and Outlook
Nobody’s Unpredictable 38
Key Points: Economic Crisis
Overall Global Confidence has stabilized thanks in large part
to an anchoring effect from the US, China, and India.
However joblessness has lead to violence and corruption in
Europe and Russia, which has halted any effects of
economic resiliency in these regions.
This crisis is personal and local
 Jobs and unemployment is affecting everyone directly/indirectly
 De-leveraging trend has become a mixed blessing
© 2009 Ipsos
 Citizens have paid down debt, and stock-piled savings
 Spending into the economy is still an issue affecting many industries
 Upcoming job reports are step 1 in a full turnaround
Global @dvisor May 2009
39
39