Transcript Shinder presentation

The National Association of Business Political Action Committees
2012 NABPAC POST-ELECTION CONFERENCE
“RUNNING BULLS OR ROARING
BEARS: WALL STREET REACTIONS
TO THE 2012 ELECTION RESULTS”
PRESENTED BY:
Richard J. Shinder, Perella Weinberg Partners
November 15, 2012
Introduction
o Status quo election outcome
o Center for Responsive Politics estimates that the 2012
election cost US$6 billion – for what?
o Obama “mandate” – what’s to come?
o Convincing win, but with lower EV and popular vote count
than in 2008
o Republicans hold House while Democrats outperform
expectations with Senate gains
o What message has the electorate sent to Washington?
o State and local outcomes
o California
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Macro Themes
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Fiscal cliff/national debt/deficits
Economic growth expectations
Employment
Taxes
Regulation
o General
o Financial Services
o Energy
o Health Care
Affordable Care Act
Interest rates
Currency risk
Business confidence
Consumer confidence
M&A activity
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Fiscal Issues
o Fiscal cliff
o National debt
o Budget deficits
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Growth and Employment
o Global economic environment
o Fiscal policy impact on growth
o American Jobs Act
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Taxes and Regulation
o Taxes
o As a % of GDP
o Composition of tax base
o Corporate
o Personal
o Income
o Estate
o Dividends and Capital Gains
o Business investment
o Regulation
o General business regulatory environment
o Financial Services
o Energy
o Health Care
o Federal, State and Local
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Affordable Care Act
o Implementation
o Taxes
o Modifications/Challenges
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Currency and Interest Rates
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Status as reserve currency
Fed policy vis. fiscal cliff
QE infinity?
Long-run inflation risk
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Business/Consumer Confidence
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Capital investment
M&A activity
Consumer sentiment
Foreign investor sentiment
Debt reduction
Consumption vs. investment
Corporate cash balances
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Near-Term Sector Themes
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Energy
Health Care
Housing and related
Consumer
Infrastructure
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Intermediate-Term Themes
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Commodities
Industrial exports
Business services
Consumer luxury
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Thank You
Richard J. Shinder
Partner, Perella Weinberg Partners
767 Fifth Avenue
New York, NY 10154
(212) 287-3184
[email protected]
Richard J. Shinder is a Partner of Perella Weinberg Partners L.P. (“PWP”). The opinions expressed in this presentation are his own
and may not be representative of those of PWP.
NABPAC thanks Jake McGuire of The PAC Store for allowing us to use his photographs in this presentation.
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