Ten Tornadoes from Wireless Convergence ————————————— Opportunities for Australia’s CIO Internet Innovators Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney February 23, 2004 Presented by Alex Lightman CEO, The University.
Download ReportTranscript Ten Tornadoes from Wireless Convergence ————————————— Opportunities for Australia’s CIO Internet Innovators Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney February 23, 2004 Presented by Alex Lightman CEO, The University.
Slide 1
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 2
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 3
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 4
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 5
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 6
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 7
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 8
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 9
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 10
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 11
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 12
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 13
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 14
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 15
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 16
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 17
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 18
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 19
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 20
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 21
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 22
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 23
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 24
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 25
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 26
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 27
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 28
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 29
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 30
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 31
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 32
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 33
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 34
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 35
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 36
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 2
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 3
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 4
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 5
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 6
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 7
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 8
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 9
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 10
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 11
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 12
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 13
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 14
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 15
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 16
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 17
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 18
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 19
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 20
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 21
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 22
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 23
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 24
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 25
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 26
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 27
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 28
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 29
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 30
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 31
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 32
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 33
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 34
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 35
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Slide 36
Ten Tornadoes from
Wireless Convergence
—————————————
Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet Innovators
Four Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004
Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University Network
Chairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North America
Founding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global
industry consensus on wireless
convergence to improve the
quantity, quality, variety,
simplicity, profitability, and
security of customer
communication experiences
while also improving civilization
for all humanity.
Television
Electricity
(1926)
(1873)
Percentage of Ownership
100
Microwave
(1953)
80
Radio
(1905)
PC
(1982)
Telephone
(1876)
VCR
(1952)
Automobile
(1886)
60
40
20
0
Internet
(1983)
20
40
60
80
Years Since Introduction
100
120
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
ISDN
3G/Mobile Internet
MMM
WAP
Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
WWW
New
Telecoms
Industry
Carrier class
The Converged
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
Media Industry
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
mobility
2G/2.5G/EDGE
Wireline
Telecom
Industry
3G/mobile Internet
MMM
New
Telecoms
Industry
InternetCarrier
class
PC-WAN
WWW
ISDN
WAP
PSTN
PC-LAN
PC/Servers
desk top computing
The Integrated
Industry
Computer Industry
main frames
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
Media Industry
Consumer Electronics
White Goods Industry
Car - Airline Industry
Revised Technology Adoption Life
Cycle
34%
Early
majority
2.5 %
Innovators
13.5%
Early
adopters
34%
Late
majority
16%
Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Future Service Revenue
Available New Service
Revenue
Standard Best-effort
Old/Existing
ServicesIP Services
Operational Savings
Time
Now
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or
credit transaction; dropped credit card
fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes
out when someone cancels to people
who are in the area and want
discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la
Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world
counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to
your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS,
MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing
impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one
customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from
politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive
routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile
(already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin
Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying
service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your
team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM
via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and
send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the
post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend;
gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives
effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed
band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives
12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every
country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b.
spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security,
802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol.
MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by
mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a
network increases
exponentially with the number
of nodes on the network
1 TU
1/Consumer
Appliance
100 BU
10 BU
1/Object
Potential
1/Human
1/Computer
Current
Penetration
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Cell Phones
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/
ZigBee
RFID
Source: Deloitte & Touche, .. Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003
IPv6
features
3.4*1038 unique addresses available
Stateless autoconfiguration
Security: authentication and
encryption
Mobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for
IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!
* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s
http://www.threedegrees.com) to one
million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet
traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6
Power of Numbering
Power of Sequencing
Power of Ranking
Power of Naming
Power of Leading
Power of Granularity
Power of Bounding
Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5
digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip)
Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions
Power of Containerized Cargo
Power of Tight Targeting
Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
At a first level:
IA
Addressing
Plan
Transition Req’ts
Strategy Engineering Assessment
Initialization
IPv6 Native
IA/
Firewall
Capabilities
Application
DoD
Dual Stack
Software
Implementation Capable
Begin
Weaning
IPv4
Full IPv6
Integration
Evaluate
Transition
Mechanism
COTS v6
Network SW
Network
Early Adopters
FY04-05
Network
Management
Tool Int.
Switch/Router
ASIC
Functionality
Pilot Core
Networks
Dual Stack
Pilots
Coexistence
Establish
DNS
Root
FY05-06
IPv6
Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6
Functional
Matching
Dual Stack
End-To-End
Pilots
Application
Core
Conversion
Implementation
Guidelines
DNS
Mod
FY03-04
FY06-07
Edge
Networks
IPv6 Native
Core Network
IPv4
Tunneling
Core
Networks
IPv6 Native
All
Test & Analysis
DoD
Costing
DoD IPv6
Policy
Pilots
Acquire IPv6
Address Space
~ FY07-9
& Beyond
Need to define next level of details and integrate
in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS,
mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Internet
Portable processing power
Telecommunications
Personal electronics
Service economy
4G
Intuitive, augmented reality
interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching
people’s lives
Defining 4G
4G networks are networks that
provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-topeer wireless access to the Internet via
IPv6.
The Planetary Grid 4GSociety.org
4G services
are multi-rate,
informational and multimedia wireless
services that provide end-user
terminals/sensors with access to any
other authenticated peer-to-peer node
on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that
provide data transmission at either 10100 Mbps/user short-range (100
meters) transmission or >1 Mbps longrange (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user
terminals/devices will have the added
feature being programmable radios
through the use of wideband (400 MHZ
– 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
The 4G Technology Menu
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space)
P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec
Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies
Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications
Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors
Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems]
OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b
Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals
Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery
Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D
for Microsoft: “The most valuable
thing we’ve learned is that in the
future everything that costs over $25
except food will be connected to the
Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of
everything, not just of wireless, and
therefore a grand consensus of ALL
industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level Concept
Systems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
The PAN
The Immediate
Environment
Instant Partners
Radio Accesses : Interconnectivity
Source: IST WSI Project
CyberWorld
Multiservice Overlay Networks
Today
Future
Single-service networks
Multi-service networks
Services
Content
Servers
LAN (Data)
GSM
Fixed Telephony
Radio/TV
Communcation
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Content
Control
IP Backbone Network
Access
Access
Access
What is a SensorNet?
Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,…
Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, …
Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, …
Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, …
Layered Software
Backend Data Systems
The New Powers of Ten
Time
Platform(s)
Network Operations Model
1960-1980
Mainframe/
IBM era
10:1 people/machine ratio
1970-1990
Minicomputer/
DEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-
Workstation/
PC era
1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-
Enterprise networks/ 1:100? people/machine ratio
Cisco era
2000-
Broadband packet
networks ?
Source: Paul Johnson
1:1000? people/machine ratio
Old network
management
systems were
single vendor
solutions optimized
for cost in rigid fiveyear preplanned
networks.
New network
operations systems
must be designed
for adaptability and
change (new
equipment, multiple
vendors, new
service offerings/
provisioning).
1000’s of subscriptions/person
Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop
Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later
nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing realtime assessment against millions of high
resolution medical records, each with IP
address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A
Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of
body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease
approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters
High-Mobility
$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes
Vehicular
802.16e Mobility
2G
Pedestrian
GSM,
cdmaOne
PDC
2.5G
3G
GPRS,
EDGE,
CDMA2000 1X
144 kbps
W-CDMA
Multimedia Data, Location Services,
Augmented Reality, Music/Video,
Voice over IP, Remote Control
Software Defined Radio Opportunity
Early 4G Systems
R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
802.16a FBWA)
CDMA2000 1x
EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps)
802.11a 802.11g
HPSDA
802.11b
54 Mbps
4G
Low Mobility
(2004 –2010)
Portable
DECT/Cordless
Phones
Bluetooth
802.11b
2-11 Mbps
Smart Antennas
760 Kbps
56K Modems
Fixed
E1/T1 Lines
802.15a UWB PAN
xDSL/Cable
1.5 – 20 Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines
Mbps
1.0
0.01
0.1
10
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
100
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migr
Equipment:
IPv4
(public or private)
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,
Juniper, Fluke, Lucent,
NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Nintendo, Telia,
Compaq, Sega, 3Com
WLAN
DSL
RAS
ISP
RAS
ER
ATM/FR
IPv6
RAS
between
access systems
IPv6
(public or private)
ER/FW
SDH/DWDM
Cable
RAS
IP over ATM
3G RAN
3G RAN
3GSGSN
3GSGSN
IPv6
all-IP
Packet Core
3GGGSN
3GSGSN
3G RAN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Network Connection IP over DWDM
GW
PSTN
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted
their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:
www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp,
www.ipv6.org
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Seven Layers of 4G
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
Telecom/Internet Service Providers
Cellular Operators
Ad-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
4G Personal Communicator
Voice, fax, data
MP3 Player
PDA
Storage
Voice Recorder
Language Translator
Video Camera
Health Monitor
Augmented Reality(AR)
AR Game Player
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers)
Layer
1.
Wireline Transport Layer
(Optical Fiber, DWDM,
Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
User 1
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Home or Office
InfoSensors
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ
Chip 0.30 mm2
Source: IBM Research
The European Commission on 4G
Fourth
Generation
Satellite
Broadband
S-UMTS
Satellite
DVB-S
High Altitude Platform
Body-LAN
DVB-T
IPv6
DAB
Personal
Area Networks
Broadband
Bluetooth
W-LAN
EDGE
Broadcasting
GPRS
GSM
Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks
FWA
IR
UMTS ++ MBS 60
MWS
UMTS
Fixed Wireless Access
MBS 40
Cellular
Quasi-Cellular
xMDS
Wireless Local Loop
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the world
Voice ($500 billion annually)
Radio (add personalization, location)
Television (Every show ever made)
Medical Monitoring
Simulations
High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
IPv4 Internet
IPv6 Internet
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
ITS
WEB/Email
3G
VoIP
P2P
Ad Hoc
HN
GRID
Deployment
Rate
Slow but Steady
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson.
Alex Lightman
[email protected]
Closing Thought
Thank you!
Please stay in
touch.
Alex
Lightman
[email protected]
Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18,
2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com