Trial Calculation Review 31 Homer Road, Solihull 18th March 2010 “Whilst every effort is made to ensure the technical accuracy of the information.
Download ReportTranscript Trial Calculation Review 31 Homer Road, Solihull 18th March 2010 “Whilst every effort is made to ensure the technical accuracy of the information.
Slide 1
Trial Calculation Review
31 Homer Road, Solihull
18th March 2010
“Whilst every effort is made to ensure the technical accuracy of the information contained within this presentation, xoserve can accept no responsibility for any
claims (however they arise) made against the company as a result of using the information contained within this presentation”
Version v1.0
Slide 2
Team Structure
Version v1.0
Slide 3
Version v1.0
Slide 4
Actions from previous AQ Review Group
Meeting that was held on
12th November 2009
Version v1.0
Slide 5
Actions
A suggestion was made as to whether Speculative Calculator File Submission by SHP:
Slide 15 could be modified to capture:
How many Spec Calcs were rejected and whether a column can be added to the
slide to show the rejected volumes? xoserve will capture and include this figure
for the Actual AQ Review 2010. Action Closed
Could the Spec Calcs be split into market sector, SSP & LSP? Unfortunately the
Spec Calc system does not lend itself to produce or identify this additional
data, therefore we will be unable to deliver the second request. Action Closed
EUC Codes 2010
A presentation was given explaining there will not be enough EUC Codes available on Sites
and Meters for the AQ review during 2012. There will be further communications at operational
forums regarding this issue. The opportunity to gather information on how the industry use the
EUC codes. Action: All Shippers to provide concerns and potential impacts by the end of the
year to the AQ mailbox [email protected]: Action Closed
AQ Survey
The AQ Team would like to carry out an AQ Customer Satisfaction: All Shippers to complete
and return completed survey to AQ mailbox: [email protected]: Action Closed
Version v1.0
Slide 6
Actions
AQ Appeals Activity
xoserve was asked to provide the volume of AQ Appeals for the same period in 2008 as a
comparison : Action Closed
Version v1.0
Slide 7
Actions
TOG – Theft of Gas
Action: xoserve to provided the 104 thefts where the AQ calculation has overlapped the theft
and identify the actual theft period. Action Closed
Action: A report is issued to the industry in an excel spread sheet titled ‘TOG Analysis All
Shippers Monthly 2009 (Shipper Version)’. Action Closed
Action: The Shippers to supply comments/feedback on this proposal by the Forum in March. It
is anticipated that this item will appear once again on the agenda. Action Open
Seasonal Normal Review:
Is there scope for the User pays spec calc charge to be dropped this year? This item was on the
agenda at the User Pays Forum. Action Closed
BTU Form
A presentation on the BTU Form giving the three specific uses with the relevant UNC references,
these being the Manifest Error, New Business Appeal and MOD99.
National Grid have presented this issue at a Distribution Work stream meeting:
http://www.gasgovernance.co.uk/sites/default/files/AQAppealsandtheBTUformNGD_0.ppt
Action: The details of all these MODs can be viewed on the Gas Governance website.
www.gasgovernance.co.uk. The MOD94 and 95 were implemented but MOD96 was rejected.
Action Closed
Version v1.0
Slide 8
Seasonal Normal Review Update
Version v1.0
Slide 9
Background
The seasonal normal weather basis should be a reasonable representation
of “normal” weather in each LDZ
The current set of SNCWVs were agreed in 2005 and are based on 17
years of historical data (1987/88 to 2003/04)
Revised SNCWVs have now been calculated for the next defined seasonal
normal period, namely from 1st October 2010 until 30th September 2015
AQs represent a sites annual consumption at seasonal normal weather
WAALPs used in AQ formula performs the role of converting the RMQ to an
‘annual seasonal normal’ consumption
Version v1.0
Slide 10
WAALPs
C W AAL P - C u m u lative W eath er
R elevan t M etered Q u an tity
A m easure of the total m etered q uantity,
converted to K ilow att hours.
Ad ju sted An n u al L o ad P ro file
A m easure of the A nnual Load P rofile, D aily A djustm ent
F actor and E stim ated W eather C orrection factor. T he
cum ulative value is the sum of all W A A LP s over the
period.
AQ Formula as described in 3.4.1 of Section H UNC
AQ Review 2010 calculations will be done using WAALPs on new
seasonal normal basis
WAALP's have been restated back to AQ backstop date (1st October
2006 (3.4.3)
Where AQs fail to calculate (‘carry forwards’) then a ratio will be applied
to ensure AQ represents new seasonal normal basis (3.4.4)
Version v1.0
Slide 11
Impacts to AQs of Seasonal Normal Review
LD Z
% W a rm in g (fro m 1 7 -yr. b a s is )
SC
4 .5 0 %
NO
4 .3 0 %
NW & W N
4 .6 0 %
NE
4 .4 0 %
EM
4 .5 0 %
WM
3 .9 0 %
WS
4 .4 0 %
EA
3 .6 0 %
NT
3 .5 0 %
SE
3 .7 0 %
SO
4 .3 0 %
SW
4 .4 0 %
Overall % warming is a little over 4%
nationally.
Annual aggregate NDM AQ changes
have been:
4.4% (reduction) in 2009/10
3.4% (reduction) in 2008/09
4.0% (reduction) in 2007/08
Not unreasonable to expect a similar AQ
reduction in 2010/11 (e.g. ~4%)
irrespective of the seasonal normal
basis change (e.g. general demand
reduction).
Overall change could be of the order of
8%.
Version v1.0
Slide 12
Next Steps
xoserve to publish the following data on UK Link Docs secured area
before the end of March:
Annual Load Profiles (ALP): GY 2006/07, 07/08, 08/09 & 09/10
Daily Adjustment Factors (DAF): GY 2006/07, 07/08, 08/09 & 09/10
Estimated Weather Correction Factor (EWCF): 2006/07, 07/08, 08/09 &
09/10*
* EWCF can only be calculated once temperature and wind speed measurements
for the gas day are known (i.e. CWV calculation)
EWCF published upto gas day 28/02/2010
For remainder of gas year EWCF file will be updated once a month with latest
EWCF values (Action from last meeting)
Any questions regarding the data should be directed to:
[email protected]
Version v1.0
Slide 13
Trial Calculation Review
31 Homer Road, Solihull
18th March 2010
“Whilst every effort is made to ensure the technical accuracy of the information contained within this presentation, xoserve can accept no responsibility for any
claims (however they arise) made against the company as a result of using the information contained within this presentation”
Version v1.0
Slide 14
AQ’s Calculated – Actual Calc
Year of Calc
Actual Calc
2007
Actual Calc
2008
Actual Calc
2009
Total Re-Calculated
Smaller Meter Points
17.6m
Total Re-Calculated
Larger Meter Points
358,740
18.0m
328,746
18.4m
322,609
Version v1.0
Slide 15
AQ’s Calculated – Trial Calc
Year of Calc
Trial Calc
2008
Trial Calc
2009
Trial Calc
2010
Total Re-Calculated
Smaller Meter Points
16.3m
Total Re-Calculated
Larger Meter Points
271,387
16.9m
267,678
17.0m
235,096
Version v1.0
Slide 16
Energy Movement
Version v1.0
Slide 17
Energy Movement LSP - LSP
200
180
182
160
140
120
100
80
102
95
60
40
20
0
20/12/09 AQ
Proposed AQ
Version v1.0
Final AQ
AQ in tWh
Slide 18
Energy Movement SSP – SSP
300
295
290
291
285
280
275
276
270
265
260
255
250
20/12/09 AQ
Proposed AQ
Version v1.0
AQ in tWh
Slide 19
Energy Movement Threshold Crossers
350
300
303
250
200
AQ in tWh
150
100
50
57
6
0
20/12/09 AQ
Proposed AQ
Version v1.0
Final AQ
Slide 20
AQ Team Validations
SSP
Version v1.0
Slide 21
AQ Team Validations
LSP
Version v1.0
Slide 22
SSP Energy Report
Version v1.0
Slide 23
LSP Energy Report
Version v1.0
Slide 24
SSP Warnings Reports 2010 Trial Calc
Version v1.0
Slide 25
SSP Warnings Reports 2010 Trial Calc
Version v1.0
Slide 26
LSP Warnings Reports 2010 Trial Calc
Version v1.0
Slide 27
LSP Warnings Reports 2010 Trial Calc
Version v1.0
Slide 28
AQ Appeals
Version v1.0
Slide 29
AQ Appeal Activity 2009
Version v1.0
Slide 30
AQ Appeal Activity 2010
Version v1.0
Slide 31
AQ Appeal Activity 2009-2010
18000
16000
Nº of Appeals
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Accepted
2731
3771
1601
3150
984
0
514
6718
15485
2674
2959
5820
Rejected
236
429
147
201
67
19
64
198
953
273
270
665
Referred
393
702
161
183
58
0
131
632
1315
309
390
397
Months
Version v1.0
Slide 32
AQ Appeal Activity
40000
39022
35000
30000
25000
20000
Nº of MPRs
15000
10000
13948
5000
0
Increasing
Decreasing
Version v1.0
Slide 33
WC Appeal Activity
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
4154
Nº of MPRs
585
Increasing
Decreasing
Version v1.0
Slide 34
AQ Appeal Activity
14
12
13.6
10
8
Increase By
Decreased By
6
5.4
4
2
0
tWh
Version v1.0
Slide 35
2010 AQ Review Timetable
Version v1.0
Slide 36
2010 AQ Review Tim etable
26th March 2010
Recalculation of SSP AQs
3rd May 2010
Recalculation of LSP AQs
12th May 2010
Recalculation of Meter Point Winter Consumptions (WC)
19th May 2010
First release: IGT (Weather correction and CV data).
28th May 2010
SSP & Threshold Crosser T04 Files sent to Shippers
1st June 2010
SSP AQ Amendment Window Opens
14th June 2010
Start of the Bottom Stop SOQ review process
30th June 2010
LSP T04 Files sent to Shippers
1st July 2010
LSP AQ Amendment Window Opens
1st July 2010
First Release of MOD81
9th July 2010
BSSOQ files released to Shippers
31st July 2010
AQ Appeal Window closes
1st August 2010
Second Release of MOD81
13th August 2010
Last day for receipt of all AQ / BSSOQ Shipper Amendments
20th August 2010
Final release: IGT (Weather correction and CV data).
14th September 2010
NRO/NRL files sent to Shippers (S91, S92, T68)
14th September 2010
AQ Appeal Window Opens
1st October 2010
AQ Implementation Date
1st November 2010
Third Release of MOD81
Version v1.0
Slide 37
Transfer of Ownership
Version v1.0
Slide 38
Transfer of Ownership
History
The GT’s are responsible for calculating an AQ value for each Meter Point using data provided by the
Shipper (Reads and Assets) and apply certain criteria and rules in order to calculate the AQ value.
During the annual AQ Review the incoming shipper:
may not be aware of the xoserve proposed AQ value
is aware of the xoserve proposed AQ value but does not have the necessary Reads/Assets to
challenge and replace the xoserve proposed AQ value
Action
All Meter Points that are within the dataset supplied by British Gas:
will not be amended by xoserve in the first instance
any successful AQ Amendment will define the AQ value for the 1st October 2010
any meter points that have not had a successful AQ amendment will be reviewed by xoserve as
per the normal process
a Backstop date will be applied to all meter points that are not amended
Version v1.0
Slide 39
Transfer of Ownership
Timeline
1st April 2010 - Identify all Transfer of Ownership
Incoming Shipper to contact British Gas for Read and Asset details
Contact at British Gas - Nicky James - [email protected]
13th August – where no AQ Amendment has been successfully submitted xoserve will review the
proposed AQ value
23rd September second phase: identifying any additional Transfer of Ownership since the 13th August
** This will only apply to Meter Points that are within the dataset defined by British Gas and have been part
of a Transfer of Ownership**
Version v1.0
Slide 40
AQ Team Customer Satisfaction Survey
Results
Version v1.0
Slide 41
AQ Team Customer Satisfaction Survey
Results
Version v1.0
Slide 42
Any Other Business
Version v1.0
Trial Calculation Review
31 Homer Road, Solihull
18th March 2010
“Whilst every effort is made to ensure the technical accuracy of the information contained within this presentation, xoserve can accept no responsibility for any
claims (however they arise) made against the company as a result of using the information contained within this presentation”
Version v1.0
Slide 2
Team Structure
Version v1.0
Slide 3
Version v1.0
Slide 4
Actions from previous AQ Review Group
Meeting that was held on
12th November 2009
Version v1.0
Slide 5
Actions
A suggestion was made as to whether Speculative Calculator File Submission by SHP:
Slide 15 could be modified to capture:
How many Spec Calcs were rejected and whether a column can be added to the
slide to show the rejected volumes? xoserve will capture and include this figure
for the Actual AQ Review 2010. Action Closed
Could the Spec Calcs be split into market sector, SSP & LSP? Unfortunately the
Spec Calc system does not lend itself to produce or identify this additional
data, therefore we will be unable to deliver the second request. Action Closed
EUC Codes 2010
A presentation was given explaining there will not be enough EUC Codes available on Sites
and Meters for the AQ review during 2012. There will be further communications at operational
forums regarding this issue. The opportunity to gather information on how the industry use the
EUC codes. Action: All Shippers to provide concerns and potential impacts by the end of the
year to the AQ mailbox [email protected]: Action Closed
AQ Survey
The AQ Team would like to carry out an AQ Customer Satisfaction: All Shippers to complete
and return completed survey to AQ mailbox: [email protected]: Action Closed
Version v1.0
Slide 6
Actions
AQ Appeals Activity
xoserve was asked to provide the volume of AQ Appeals for the same period in 2008 as a
comparison : Action Closed
Version v1.0
Slide 7
Actions
TOG – Theft of Gas
Action: xoserve to provided the 104 thefts where the AQ calculation has overlapped the theft
and identify the actual theft period. Action Closed
Action: A report is issued to the industry in an excel spread sheet titled ‘TOG Analysis All
Shippers Monthly 2009 (Shipper Version)’. Action Closed
Action: The Shippers to supply comments/feedback on this proposal by the Forum in March. It
is anticipated that this item will appear once again on the agenda. Action Open
Seasonal Normal Review:
Is there scope for the User pays spec calc charge to be dropped this year? This item was on the
agenda at the User Pays Forum. Action Closed
BTU Form
A presentation on the BTU Form giving the three specific uses with the relevant UNC references,
these being the Manifest Error, New Business Appeal and MOD99.
National Grid have presented this issue at a Distribution Work stream meeting:
http://www.gasgovernance.co.uk/sites/default/files/AQAppealsandtheBTUformNGD_0.ppt
Action: The details of all these MODs can be viewed on the Gas Governance website.
www.gasgovernance.co.uk. The MOD94 and 95 were implemented but MOD96 was rejected.
Action Closed
Version v1.0
Slide 8
Seasonal Normal Review Update
Version v1.0
Slide 9
Background
The seasonal normal weather basis should be a reasonable representation
of “normal” weather in each LDZ
The current set of SNCWVs were agreed in 2005 and are based on 17
years of historical data (1987/88 to 2003/04)
Revised SNCWVs have now been calculated for the next defined seasonal
normal period, namely from 1st October 2010 until 30th September 2015
AQs represent a sites annual consumption at seasonal normal weather
WAALPs used in AQ formula performs the role of converting the RMQ to an
‘annual seasonal normal’ consumption
Version v1.0
Slide 10
WAALPs
C W AAL P - C u m u lative W eath er
R elevan t M etered Q u an tity
A m easure of the total m etered q uantity,
converted to K ilow att hours.
Ad ju sted An n u al L o ad P ro file
A m easure of the A nnual Load P rofile, D aily A djustm ent
F actor and E stim ated W eather C orrection factor. T he
cum ulative value is the sum of all W A A LP s over the
period.
AQ Formula as described in 3.4.1 of Section H UNC
AQ Review 2010 calculations will be done using WAALPs on new
seasonal normal basis
WAALP's have been restated back to AQ backstop date (1st October
2006 (3.4.3)
Where AQs fail to calculate (‘carry forwards’) then a ratio will be applied
to ensure AQ represents new seasonal normal basis (3.4.4)
Version v1.0
Slide 11
Impacts to AQs of Seasonal Normal Review
LD Z
% W a rm in g (fro m 1 7 -yr. b a s is )
SC
4 .5 0 %
NO
4 .3 0 %
NW & W N
4 .6 0 %
NE
4 .4 0 %
EM
4 .5 0 %
WM
3 .9 0 %
WS
4 .4 0 %
EA
3 .6 0 %
NT
3 .5 0 %
SE
3 .7 0 %
SO
4 .3 0 %
SW
4 .4 0 %
Overall % warming is a little over 4%
nationally.
Annual aggregate NDM AQ changes
have been:
4.4% (reduction) in 2009/10
3.4% (reduction) in 2008/09
4.0% (reduction) in 2007/08
Not unreasonable to expect a similar AQ
reduction in 2010/11 (e.g. ~4%)
irrespective of the seasonal normal
basis change (e.g. general demand
reduction).
Overall change could be of the order of
8%.
Version v1.0
Slide 12
Next Steps
xoserve to publish the following data on UK Link Docs secured area
before the end of March:
Annual Load Profiles (ALP): GY 2006/07, 07/08, 08/09 & 09/10
Daily Adjustment Factors (DAF): GY 2006/07, 07/08, 08/09 & 09/10
Estimated Weather Correction Factor (EWCF): 2006/07, 07/08, 08/09 &
09/10*
* EWCF can only be calculated once temperature and wind speed measurements
for the gas day are known (i.e. CWV calculation)
EWCF published upto gas day 28/02/2010
For remainder of gas year EWCF file will be updated once a month with latest
EWCF values (Action from last meeting)
Any questions regarding the data should be directed to:
[email protected]
Version v1.0
Slide 13
Trial Calculation Review
31 Homer Road, Solihull
18th March 2010
“Whilst every effort is made to ensure the technical accuracy of the information contained within this presentation, xoserve can accept no responsibility for any
claims (however they arise) made against the company as a result of using the information contained within this presentation”
Version v1.0
Slide 14
AQ’s Calculated – Actual Calc
Year of Calc
Actual Calc
2007
Actual Calc
2008
Actual Calc
2009
Total Re-Calculated
Smaller Meter Points
17.6m
Total Re-Calculated
Larger Meter Points
358,740
18.0m
328,746
18.4m
322,609
Version v1.0
Slide 15
AQ’s Calculated – Trial Calc
Year of Calc
Trial Calc
2008
Trial Calc
2009
Trial Calc
2010
Total Re-Calculated
Smaller Meter Points
16.3m
Total Re-Calculated
Larger Meter Points
271,387
16.9m
267,678
17.0m
235,096
Version v1.0
Slide 16
Energy Movement
Version v1.0
Slide 17
Energy Movement LSP - LSP
200
180
182
160
140
120
100
80
102
95
60
40
20
0
20/12/09 AQ
Proposed AQ
Version v1.0
Final AQ
AQ in tWh
Slide 18
Energy Movement SSP – SSP
300
295
290
291
285
280
275
276
270
265
260
255
250
20/12/09 AQ
Proposed AQ
Version v1.0
AQ in tWh
Slide 19
Energy Movement Threshold Crossers
350
300
303
250
200
AQ in tWh
150
100
50
57
6
0
20/12/09 AQ
Proposed AQ
Version v1.0
Final AQ
Slide 20
AQ Team Validations
SSP
Version v1.0
Slide 21
AQ Team Validations
LSP
Version v1.0
Slide 22
SSP Energy Report
Version v1.0
Slide 23
LSP Energy Report
Version v1.0
Slide 24
SSP Warnings Reports 2010 Trial Calc
Version v1.0
Slide 25
SSP Warnings Reports 2010 Trial Calc
Version v1.0
Slide 26
LSP Warnings Reports 2010 Trial Calc
Version v1.0
Slide 27
LSP Warnings Reports 2010 Trial Calc
Version v1.0
Slide 28
AQ Appeals
Version v1.0
Slide 29
AQ Appeal Activity 2009
Version v1.0
Slide 30
AQ Appeal Activity 2010
Version v1.0
Slide 31
AQ Appeal Activity 2009-2010
18000
16000
Nº of Appeals
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Accepted
2731
3771
1601
3150
984
0
514
6718
15485
2674
2959
5820
Rejected
236
429
147
201
67
19
64
198
953
273
270
665
Referred
393
702
161
183
58
0
131
632
1315
309
390
397
Months
Version v1.0
Slide 32
AQ Appeal Activity
40000
39022
35000
30000
25000
20000
Nº of MPRs
15000
10000
13948
5000
0
Increasing
Decreasing
Version v1.0
Slide 33
WC Appeal Activity
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
4154
Nº of MPRs
585
Increasing
Decreasing
Version v1.0
Slide 34
AQ Appeal Activity
14
12
13.6
10
8
Increase By
Decreased By
6
5.4
4
2
0
tWh
Version v1.0
Slide 35
2010 AQ Review Timetable
Version v1.0
Slide 36
2010 AQ Review Tim etable
26th March 2010
Recalculation of SSP AQs
3rd May 2010
Recalculation of LSP AQs
12th May 2010
Recalculation of Meter Point Winter Consumptions (WC)
19th May 2010
First release: IGT (Weather correction and CV data).
28th May 2010
SSP & Threshold Crosser T04 Files sent to Shippers
1st June 2010
SSP AQ Amendment Window Opens
14th June 2010
Start of the Bottom Stop SOQ review process
30th June 2010
LSP T04 Files sent to Shippers
1st July 2010
LSP AQ Amendment Window Opens
1st July 2010
First Release of MOD81
9th July 2010
BSSOQ files released to Shippers
31st July 2010
AQ Appeal Window closes
1st August 2010
Second Release of MOD81
13th August 2010
Last day for receipt of all AQ / BSSOQ Shipper Amendments
20th August 2010
Final release: IGT (Weather correction and CV data).
14th September 2010
NRO/NRL files sent to Shippers (S91, S92, T68)
14th September 2010
AQ Appeal Window Opens
1st October 2010
AQ Implementation Date
1st November 2010
Third Release of MOD81
Version v1.0
Slide 37
Transfer of Ownership
Version v1.0
Slide 38
Transfer of Ownership
History
The GT’s are responsible for calculating an AQ value for each Meter Point using data provided by the
Shipper (Reads and Assets) and apply certain criteria and rules in order to calculate the AQ value.
During the annual AQ Review the incoming shipper:
may not be aware of the xoserve proposed AQ value
is aware of the xoserve proposed AQ value but does not have the necessary Reads/Assets to
challenge and replace the xoserve proposed AQ value
Action
All Meter Points that are within the dataset supplied by British Gas:
will not be amended by xoserve in the first instance
any successful AQ Amendment will define the AQ value for the 1st October 2010
any meter points that have not had a successful AQ amendment will be reviewed by xoserve as
per the normal process
a Backstop date will be applied to all meter points that are not amended
Version v1.0
Slide 39
Transfer of Ownership
Timeline
1st April 2010 - Identify all Transfer of Ownership
Incoming Shipper to contact British Gas for Read and Asset details
Contact at British Gas - Nicky James - [email protected]
13th August – where no AQ Amendment has been successfully submitted xoserve will review the
proposed AQ value
23rd September second phase: identifying any additional Transfer of Ownership since the 13th August
** This will only apply to Meter Points that are within the dataset defined by British Gas and have been part
of a Transfer of Ownership**
Version v1.0
Slide 40
AQ Team Customer Satisfaction Survey
Results
Version v1.0
Slide 41
AQ Team Customer Satisfaction Survey
Results
Version v1.0
Slide 42
Any Other Business
Version v1.0