Aviva flood model Embedding GIS in day to day decision making Simon Black Head of Data & Statistics, Aviva Plc.
Download ReportTranscript Aviva flood model Embedding GIS in day to day decision making Simon Black Head of Data & Statistics, Aviva Plc.
Slide 1
Aviva flood model
Embedding GIS in day to day decision making
Simon Black
Head of Data &
Statistics, Aviva Plc
Slide 2
How did it all start?
• Autumn 2000
• £200m Storm and flood claims
• Similar events expected to be more
frequent and more costly
• Wanted something to help predict which
properties were most at risk
• Nothing available
Slide 3
NEXTMap Britain
+
Elevation Model
+
Radar Image
Flood data from CEH
Original model created with the help of:
Intermap
JBA
=
HR Wallingford
The Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
ESRI
©Intermap Technologies Inc
Flood Risk
Assessment
Slide 4
Stakeholder Management
Introducing GIS was a major leap forward for the
insurance industry but came at a cost
Having invested the money it was essential to share
successes with internal and external stakeholders
Carlisle (2005) and the widespread floods of 2007
demonstrated model accuracy and, more importantly,
the financial benefit of embedding GIS
GIS saved at least £25m from just one event
Slide 5
Carlisle (2005) Flood Claims
Slide 6
2007 floods
Flood Claims
River
Non-River
Unknown
©Ordnance Survey
NU Outlines
1:75 years
1:250 Years
Slide 7
Lessons / Enhancements
River model was predictive – it worked!
BUT over 50% of claims in 2007 were from surface water rather than
from river flooding – a major wake up call to the insurance / hydrological
industries
Aviva signs long-term deal with JBA
New river
Surface water
Coastal flood models
(all with extensive use of Lidar)
Significant multivariate analysis to ensure hydrological output is
integrated into underwriting and pricing processes
Slide 8
LiDAR vs RaDaR - York DSM
Slide 9
Surface Water Model
•In the 2007 floods over
50% of claims were
caused by surface water
flooding
•The surface water flood
model was the first
national scale model of
it’s kind
•Pinpoints properties at
risk from 1 in 75, 1 in
200 and 1 in 1000 year
surface water events
Slide 10
Surface Water Flood Model
©Ordnance Survey
Slide 11
Coastal Flood Model
©Ordnance Survey
Slide 12
What Our Underwriters See
– Perils & Accumulation Summary
12
Slide 13
What Our Underwriters See
– Perils & Accumulation Summary
13
Slide 14
What Our Underwriters Can Now See
– The Visualisation of Aviva Data
14
Slide 15
Athletics Club Risk, Surrey
Previous Assessment = Amber
Claim Cost £180k
With Hawkeye insight
The club house is amber, the sports
fields (source of income) are black
15
Slide 16
Embedding GIS in day-to-day decisions
•
Hawkeye used to assess flood (and other) risks at individual commercial
property level
•
Exposure Management Strategy drives acceptance criteria
•
Survey required for all commercial properties in high flood risk areas
•
Terms apply where previous claims have occurred
•
Training material delivered and rolled out to all underwriters
•
A matrix is supplied within which underwriters apply terms consistently
•
Where there are multiple risks in close proximity guidelines have been
supplied ensuring consistent treatment
•
For household insurance - developed an automated system to provide a
premium (underwriting criteria) for all properties in the UK
Slide 17
Flood - Accumulation
•
Monitored at account level using Catchments and “Super Cells” that
could be impacted by an individual weather event.
•
Catchment
A single modelled river system in excess of 3Km in length including
the surrounding area where rainfall feeds in to the system and
includes tributaries of the main river.
•
Super Cell
Any number of “catchments” identified as involving known river
systems that can be considered to have a realistic probability of
being affected by the same flood event.
•
RMS model used to assess EML for all Catchments and Super Cells
Slide 18
Not just flood…
GIS used for
anything…
here it’s the
recent freeze
claims
Slide 19
What Hawkeye Delivers – Portfolio Assessment Tool
The tool will assess portfolios of
properties for the risks of flood,
subsidence, malicious damage /
arson, theft and accumulation of
exposure.
19
Slide 20
How Hawkeye Delivers Enhanced Capability
Address validation
Data Quality
Accumulation management utilising cleansed address data
Visualisation enables us to assess the entire property
Risk Assessment
Maximises benefit of Aviva flood model
Greater risk awareness allows for optimal pricing
Informed underwriting decisions improves business mix
UW Processes
and Systems
Reduces number of systems used
Provides licensed access to online maps and imagery
Portfolio analysis tool
20
Aviva flood model
Embedding GIS in day to day decision making
Simon Black
Head of Data &
Statistics, Aviva Plc
Slide 2
How did it all start?
• Autumn 2000
• £200m Storm and flood claims
• Similar events expected to be more
frequent and more costly
• Wanted something to help predict which
properties were most at risk
• Nothing available
Slide 3
NEXTMap Britain
+
Elevation Model
+
Radar Image
Flood data from CEH
Original model created with the help of:
Intermap
JBA
=
HR Wallingford
The Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
ESRI
©Intermap Technologies Inc
Flood Risk
Assessment
Slide 4
Stakeholder Management
Introducing GIS was a major leap forward for the
insurance industry but came at a cost
Having invested the money it was essential to share
successes with internal and external stakeholders
Carlisle (2005) and the widespread floods of 2007
demonstrated model accuracy and, more importantly,
the financial benefit of embedding GIS
GIS saved at least £25m from just one event
Slide 5
Carlisle (2005) Flood Claims
Slide 6
2007 floods
Flood Claims
River
Non-River
Unknown
©Ordnance Survey
NU Outlines
1:75 years
1:250 Years
Slide 7
Lessons / Enhancements
River model was predictive – it worked!
BUT over 50% of claims in 2007 were from surface water rather than
from river flooding – a major wake up call to the insurance / hydrological
industries
Aviva signs long-term deal with JBA
New river
Surface water
Coastal flood models
(all with extensive use of Lidar)
Significant multivariate analysis to ensure hydrological output is
integrated into underwriting and pricing processes
Slide 8
LiDAR vs RaDaR - York DSM
Slide 9
Surface Water Model
•In the 2007 floods over
50% of claims were
caused by surface water
flooding
•The surface water flood
model was the first
national scale model of
it’s kind
•Pinpoints properties at
risk from 1 in 75, 1 in
200 and 1 in 1000 year
surface water events
Slide 10
Surface Water Flood Model
©Ordnance Survey
Slide 11
Coastal Flood Model
©Ordnance Survey
Slide 12
What Our Underwriters See
– Perils & Accumulation Summary
12
Slide 13
What Our Underwriters See
– Perils & Accumulation Summary
13
Slide 14
What Our Underwriters Can Now See
– The Visualisation of Aviva Data
14
Slide 15
Athletics Club Risk, Surrey
Previous Assessment = Amber
Claim Cost £180k
With Hawkeye insight
The club house is amber, the sports
fields (source of income) are black
15
Slide 16
Embedding GIS in day-to-day decisions
•
Hawkeye used to assess flood (and other) risks at individual commercial
property level
•
Exposure Management Strategy drives acceptance criteria
•
Survey required for all commercial properties in high flood risk areas
•
Terms apply where previous claims have occurred
•
Training material delivered and rolled out to all underwriters
•
A matrix is supplied within which underwriters apply terms consistently
•
Where there are multiple risks in close proximity guidelines have been
supplied ensuring consistent treatment
•
For household insurance - developed an automated system to provide a
premium (underwriting criteria) for all properties in the UK
Slide 17
Flood - Accumulation
•
Monitored at account level using Catchments and “Super Cells” that
could be impacted by an individual weather event.
•
Catchment
A single modelled river system in excess of 3Km in length including
the surrounding area where rainfall feeds in to the system and
includes tributaries of the main river.
•
Super Cell
Any number of “catchments” identified as involving known river
systems that can be considered to have a realistic probability of
being affected by the same flood event.
•
RMS model used to assess EML for all Catchments and Super Cells
Slide 18
Not just flood…
GIS used for
anything…
here it’s the
recent freeze
claims
Slide 19
What Hawkeye Delivers – Portfolio Assessment Tool
The tool will assess portfolios of
properties for the risks of flood,
subsidence, malicious damage /
arson, theft and accumulation of
exposure.
19
Slide 20
How Hawkeye Delivers Enhanced Capability
Address validation
Data Quality
Accumulation management utilising cleansed address data
Visualisation enables us to assess the entire property
Risk Assessment
Maximises benefit of Aviva flood model
Greater risk awareness allows for optimal pricing
Informed underwriting decisions improves business mix
UW Processes
and Systems
Reduces number of systems used
Provides licensed access to online maps and imagery
Portfolio analysis tool
20