Transcript Scottish GHG Inventory: Data, Uncertainties & Progress to Targets Justin Goodwin (Aether) Glen Thistlethwaite (Ricardo-AEA) Stuart Sneddon (Ricardo-AEA) Special Thanks to John Landrock (SG) for.

Scottish GHG Inventory: Data,
Uncertainties & Progress to Targets
Justin Goodwin (Aether)
Glen Thistlethwaite (Ricardo-AEA)
Stuart Sneddon (Ricardo-AEA)
Special Thanks to John Landrock (SG) for input to Scottish GHGi over the
years.
NESAC, Scottish Government
Victoria Quay, Leith, Edinburgh
28 November 2012
© Ricado plc 2012
What does this presentation cover?

Overview

Trends and Changes

By NC sector

Uncertainties

Changes and Improvements

Where you can find more information
2
Background: UK and DA GHG inventory and other datasets

UK UNFCCC (Kyoto Protocol) GHG inventory : This presentation

Embedded Emissions (e.g. Scotland's carbon footprint )
–

All greenhouse gas emissions at home and abroad from the production, transport and use of goods and services consumed by the Scottish
economy.
Environmental Accounts
–
Emissions from UK citizens activity in the UK and aboard.
3
Background: The UK and DA GHG inventory: Aims and Objectives

Our aim:
– Deliver a strong, accurate evidence base on GHG emissions.
• Meet reporting & monitoring commitments (UNFCCC, EU, CCC, SG, Wales & NI)
• to inform climate change policy development and implementation.

To do this:
– Use UK statistics and bottom up datasets (e.g. EU ETS, other industry reporting).
– Use available DA (Scotland)-specific data where possible - this is limited, and there
are also some constraining factors (e.g. links to UK datasets – more of this later),
– Use UK wide mapping datasets to derive some LA, DA estimates

We believe that it’s a pretty good inventory, but it’s not perfect:
– Year-to-year uncertainties are high compared to long time-series trend uncertainties
– For DA’s (Scotland) need access more detailed data to help improve the inventory
and make it more accurate and sensitive to policy impacts.
– there are systems (improvement programme) in place to fix highest priorities, and
plenty of examples of us using new data to challenge / improve the current dataset.

Please let us know if you know of more data / research to improve the accuracy of the
Scottish GHG Inventory.
4
Background: UK GHG Inventory – How the GHGI is run.
GHGI Single National Entity:
Government
Aether & RicardoAEA Inventory Agency :
Sector and
pollutant experts
Defra,
SG, WG, NI DoE
DECC,
SG, WG, NI DoE
GHG inventories:
UK, Scotland, Wales,
Northern Ireland
Ricardo-AEA,
Aether, Enviros
Rothamsted
Energy use
Waste
Research
Transport
Agriculture
Industry
LULUCF
Sectors
CEH
Outputs
Energy and
Emissions Mapping
Local Authority CO2
Inventories
National Atmospheric
Emissions Inventories
Pollutants
GHGs: CO2, CH4, N2O, F-gases
AQ pollutants: Acidifying pollutants,
VOCs, Particulate Matter, Metals, POPs
GHG inventories (Annual EU and UNFCCC and KP reporting)
Air quality pollutant inventories (Annual CLRTAP, NECD, etc.)
DA inventories, OT and CD inventories, Local inventories
AQ and GHG projections
End user inventories, uncertainties, etc.
5
Background: UK GHG Inventory – National System (1)
• Single National Entity: UK Government Department of Energy & Climate
Change (DECC). Overall responsibility for the UK NIS.
• Inventory Agency: Consortium led by Ricardo-AEA, including Aether.
Contracted by DECC to manage the inventory compilation, reporting and
Quality Assurance system.
• Agriculture Inventory: Rothamsted Research.
• LULUCF Inventory: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology.
Key organisations tasked with delivering UK GHGI to EU Monitoring Mechanism and
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, using methods consistent with IPCC
guidance, on time for submission to EUMM by 15th January each year (so the 19902011 GHGI data will be submitted on 15/1/2013 to the EU, then to UNFCCC on
15/4/2013.
6
Background: UK GHG Inventory – National System (2)
National Inventory Steering Committee
• Panel of representatives from Government Departments, regulatory agencies,
other organisations, including Scottish Government.
i.
Prioritise & implement inventory improvements.
ii.
Review the UK GHGI prior to data submission to UNFCCC.
iii.
Communicate GHGI issues across Government.
iv.
Includes representatives of regional and local Government.
• Meets twice a year (today!), managed by DECC.
• The UK NIS operates an inventory improvement programme that integrates
national-level and sub-national level priorities.
7
Background: DA (Scottish) GHG Inventory Compilation
Approach
Data acquisition
Inventory
Compilation
(spreadsheets)
UK GHGI
Quality System
Data, methods, review
Consultation, funding
SCOTLAND GHG
INVENTORY
WALES GHG
INVENTORY
ENGLAND GHG
INVENTORY
N IRELAND GHG
INVENTORY
UK GHGI
(database)
Data from Scotland,
Wales, England,
N Ireland
8
8
Background: DA and LA Inventory Compilation (1)

We adopt the basic principle that:
Sum of DA or LA inventories = UK Inventory
...for each source and each pollutant.
Incorporates benefits of the UK GHGI:

UK inventories subject to rigorous QA/QC, reliable time series, has been developed
over 20+ years of research into UK sources.

UK GHGI is a resource of emission factors, many activity data, conversion factors etc.
(Can fill gaps in local knowledge.)
X Constrains the DA inventory data to align with the UK GHGI totals. e.g. sum of DA
energy use in each economic sector is constrained to that presented
in DUKES.
9
9
Background: DA Inventory Compilation Method (2)

“Bottom-up” estimates for sources where we have comprehensive local data, such
as:
 Industrial point sources
 Road transport
 Domestic flight data

“Top-down” or modelled estimates for sources where we DON’T have comprehensive
local data, such as:
 Combustion sources in domestic, commercial, small-scale industry and public administration
sectors (e.g. we use the DEMScot model and Scottish Housing Condition Survey data to
inform Scotland share of UK-reported domestic emissions)
 Waste and sewage treatment and disposal emissions
 F-gas emissions from refrigeration and other sources
10
10
Background: DA Inventory Compilation Method (3)
•
Use local parameters such as population, employment, housing condition surveys
(domestic), industrial production statistics.
•
Commercial confidentiality limits energy use data – cannot access detailed local AND
sector-specific data. Overall local data is available, but not split out by sector.
•
Modelling approach to derive estimates:
o Metered fuels (gas, electricity) greater accuracy than non-metered fuels (oils, solid
fuels).
o DA/LA estimates for these sources are higher in uncertainty, and inventory data are
less sensitive to policy impacts.
11
11
Background: Data Sources (1)
•
DECC Sub-national Energy Statistics (DECC)
EUETS
•
Scottish Pollutant Release Inventory (SEPA)
•
Pollution Inventories (EA, SEPA,NI DoE)
•
Vehicle km data & DVLA data (DfT)
•
Transport data (DfT, CAA, shipping data)
•
Scottish Housing Condition Survey data and
•
Companies & Trade Associations (e.g. UKPIA,
•
Digest of UK Energy Statistics (DECC),
BCA, Corus)
•
Other statistical sources (ONS, ISSB, BGS…)
•
Farming surveys and UK-wide emission factor
DEMScot model (SG)
•
Montrose, ExxonMobil..)
•
Countryside Surveys (more details from
Population, employment, industrial production
data (ONS)
research (Rothamsted)
•
Individual companies (e.g. Alcan, Ineos, GSK
•
Gas network demand, gas composition and
leakage data (Scotia Gas)
CEH…)
•
Waste water statistics (Scottish Water)
•
Waste management statistics (SEPA, Defra)
12
Background: Data Sources (2)

Energy: (Business, Public, Residential, Agricultural machinery)
– Sub-national energy statistics: Limited compared to UK energy statistics: Industry and Commercial,
Agriculture, Residential
• greater uncertainty and less detail than the UK energy statistics:– no “Scottish energy balance”. Fairly
good gas data, but NO solid or liquid fuel data.
• Road transport based on fuel sales and vehicle km. (see later in presentation).
• EUETS data for some large energy users.

Industrial process (Industrial Process, Business)
– plant operator estimates reported to environmental agencies e.g. Integrated Pollution Prevention and
Control (IPPC) & EUETS.
– Cement and lime kilns, iron and steel works, aluminium and other non-ferrous metal plant, chemical
industries;

Agriculture (Livestock & crops & soils)
– Annual survey data & UK emission factors : arable production and livestock numbers;

Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF)
– regional survey data of land use, emission factors and, modelled to calculate GHG emissions and carbon
fluxes between sources and sinks;

Waste
– modelled emissions from the UK GHG inventory, split out across the DAs based on local authority waste
disposal activity reporting - local shares of UK activity for recycling, landfilling, incineration and other
treatment and disposal options.

UK statistical data and improvements will impact upon Scottish GHG data, e.g. recent revisions to energy
balance data on fuel use in sectors such as: refineries, petrochemicals…also have a large impact in Scotland.
13
Background: GHG Inventory: Scope

GHG Inventories report annual emissions of all anthropogenic GHG emissions.

Annual: 1990 – 2010 (reported in 2012) = 2 year lag.

Sources: NAEI source/activity categories (370) – IPCC (100) – National
Communication (9)
•
Gases: “Kyoto basket of six” GHGs: Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, HFCs,
PFCs, SF6
• Carbon dioxide: mainly from combustion of fuels in different economic sectors,
industrial processes, LULUCF sources and sinks
• Methane: waste, agriculture
• Nitrous oxide: industrial processes, agriculture
• F-gases: industrial processes & AC/Refrigeration

Excluded:
– Short-cycle biocarbon in the GHGI (e.g. CO2 from plant biomass but not CH4)
– International shipping and aviation – “memo items” for DA estimates.
– DA: offshore oil & gas exploration and production off-shore facilities
14
Background: DA National Communication categories

Agriculture
–

Business
–
–

Combustion of fossil fuels (heating, cooking), garden machinery, aerosols & other products, accidental fires
Transport
–

Combustion of fossil fuels
Residential
–

Managed land (e.g. forest, crops, grassland, settlements, wetlands) + Change of use (e.g. Forest -> crop, crop – grass)
Public
–

Non energy. Fossil based carbon from feedstocks (e.g. Limestone, metal ores, oil and natural gas) production and use of HFC,
PFCs & SF6.
Land Use & Land Use Change
–

Energy production (electricity, solid & liquid fuels, generation refining and mining and oil and gas extraction**)
Industrial Process
–

Energy use (combustion for heat and power in businesses)
Use of Solvents & HFC/PFC leakage from appliances (Air conditioning, refrigeration, fire fighting, foams)
Energy Supply
–

Livestock, Soils, crops & field burning, energy use in Agriculture Forestry and Fishing
Civil aviation & airport support vehicles, road vehicles, rail & rail infrastructure, domestic shipping & fishing, military
Waste
–
Landfill, sewage, incineration.
** Unallocated
–
offshore oil & gas exploration and production off-shore facilities
15
Overview: GHG emissions for Scotland, 2010 (Mt CO2e)
Non Traded & Traded Split
The non-traded share 54.9%; (Compared to UK 59.5%, E
62.2%, W 48.4% & NI 77.4%)
Scotland has a higher than UK-average EU ETS emissions,
high proportion of emissions from refineries, chemicals and
paper & pulp.
By Source
Share: 9.1% (76.5%, 8%,
3.5% for E, W & NI) of total
net UK GHG emissions
Trend: 23.7% decline since
the Base Year (26%, 15%,
14.7% decline for E, W &
NI).
End User
0.2% < by source
(exported electricity)
Share: 8.9% (E 79.9%,
W 7.4%, NI 3.8%) of
total net UK GHG
emissions
Trend 31.1% decline
since the Base Year
16
Overview: GHG emissions for Scotland, 2010 (Mt CO2e)
Non Traded & Traded Split
The non-traded share 54.9%; (Compared to UK 59.5%, E
62.2%, W 48.4% & NI 77.4%)
Scotland has a higher than UK-average EU ETS emissions,
high proportion of emissions from refineries, chemicals and
paper & pulp.
By Source
Share: 9.1% (76.5%, 8%,
3.5% for E, W & NI) of total
net UK GHG emissions
Trend: 23.7% decline since
the Base Year (26%, 15%,
14.7% decline for E, W &
NI).
End User
0.2% < by source
(exported electricity)
Share: 8.9% (E 79.9%,
W 7.4%, NI 3.8%) of
total net UK GHG
emissions
Trend 31.1% decline
since the Base Year
17
Overview: GHG emissions for Scotland, 2010 (Mt CO2e)
Non Traded & Traded Split
The non-traded share 54.9%; (Compared to UK 59.5%, E
62.2%, W 48.4% & NI 77.4%)
Scotland has a higher than UK-average EU ETS emissions,
high proportion of emissions from refineries, chemicals and
paper & pulp.
By Source
Share: 9.1% (76.5%, 8%,
3.5% for E, W & NI) of total
net UK GHG emissions
Trend: 23.7% decline since
the Base Year (26%, 15%,
14.7% decline for E, W &
NI).
End User
0.2% < by source
(exported electricity)
Share: 8.9% (E 79.9%,
W 7.4%, NI 3.8%) of
total net UK GHG
emissions
Trend 31.1% decline
since the Base Year
18
Overview: GHG emissions for Scotland, 2010 (Mt CO2e)
Non Traded & Traded Split
The non-traded share 54.9%; (Compared to UK 59.5%, E
62.2%, W 48.4% & NI 77.4%)
Scotland has a higher than UK-average EU ETS emissions,
high proportion of emissions from refineries, chemicals and
paper & pulp.
Sector
Energy
production
Business
By Source
Share: 9.1% (76.5%, 8%,
3.5% for E, W & NI) of total
net UK GHG emissions
Trend: 23.7% decline since
the Base Year (26%, 15%,
14.7% decline for E, W &
NI).
2009 UK
GHGI
(%)
2009 End Users
GHGI (%)
Comment
35
0
(All re-allocated
to end users)
15
30
High electricity
and oil use
Transport
22
24
Oil use
Public
1.5
3.1
Mainly electricity
Residential
14
26
Mainly electricity
Agriculture
8.8
9.2
Bit of oil use
Waste
3.2
3.2
(No fuel use)
End User
0.2% < by source
(exported electricity)
Share: 8.9% (E 79.9%,
W 7.4%, NI 3.8%) of
total net UK GHG
emissions
Trend 31.1% decline
since the Base Year
19
Overview: GHG emissions for Scotland, 2010 (Mt CO2e)
Non Traded & Traded Split
The non-traded share 54.9%; (Compared to UK 59.5%, E
62.2%, W 48.4% & NI 77.4%)
Scotland has a higher than UK-average EU ETS emissions,
high proportion of emissions from refineries, chemicals and
paper & pulp.
By Source
Share: 9.1% (76.5%, 8%,
3.5% for E, W & NI) of total
net UK GHG emissions
Trend: 23.7% decline since
the Base Year (26%, 15%,
14.7% decline for E, W &
NI).
Power generation and consumption data from DECC
(DECC, 2011b) indicates that in 2010 around 21% of
all electricity generated in Scotland was exported to
England and Northern Ireland.
End User
0.2% < by source
(exported electricity)
Share: 8.9% (E 79.9%,
W 7.4%, NI 3.8%) of
total net UK GHG
emissions
Trend 31.1% decline
since the Base Year
20
2009 to 2010 kt
9
108
2,188
-17
121
26
1,066
-55
0
3,447
Total CO2 only
Table 3.2
Trends & Changes: Scottish by Source Emission Trends 1990 - 2010
Total GHG Emissions by NC category for Base Year to 2010, as CO2e
80,000
70,000
kt CO2e
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
-10,000
Waste Management
Industrial Process
Transport
Energy Supply
Residential
Business
Public
Agriculture
Land Use Change
Figure 3.2
21
Trends & Changes: Progress to targets
Million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent
80
70
T argets for 2010-2027 as set in
the Climate Change (Annual
T argets) (Scotland) Order 2010
60
50
40
30
20
2050 target
10
0
1990
Base Year

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
The Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 : existing anthropogenic sources and sinks of emissions
in Scotland. Includes:
– Allowances for trading within the EU ETS, the EU-wide trading scheme that has been
operational since 2005
– Scottish emissions from international aviation and shipping..
22
Trends & Changes: Changes in by source Emissions in Scotland
1990 - 2010

Reductions
– LULUCF
– Industrial Process
– Waste

Increases
– Energy
– Residential
23
Total GHG Emissions by NC and pollutant, 2010
25,000
Key Sources and Sinks 2010 20,000
15,000
CO2: most important

CH4: Agriculture & Waste

N2O: Agriculture
kt CO2e

10,000
SF6
5,000
PFCs
N2O
0
HFCs
-5,000
CH4
-10,000
CO2
Figure 3.4
Total GHG Emissions by NC and sub-category highlighting the important sources, 2010
Waste Management
Transport
Roa d Transport
Residential combustion
Residential
Public
Land Use Change
Industrial Process

Energy Supply

Transport

LULUCF
Energy Supply
El ectri city Production
Industrial Combustion
of fuels
Business
Agriculture
-15,000
Figure 3.5
-10,000
-5,000
kt CO2e
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
24
Res i denti a l
0
38.26%
Table 3.4
Sectoral Analysis: Energy Supply
Electricity Production
Figure 3.10
40000
39.0%
30,000
0
Figure 3.11
5,000
Percentage of total emissions
30000
Liquid Fuel Production
20000
10000
Sub-sector
El ectri ci ty Producti on
Ga s Producti on
Li qui d Fuel Producti on
Offs hore Indus try
Sol i d Fuel Producti on
Tota l
2005
%
BY-2010
kt CO2e
7%
1,065
-57%
-494
-26%
-772
-69%
-806
-22%
-572
-7%
-1,578
2006
%
15,000
CH4
25,000
N2O
(1A1a)
20,000
20,000
2009-2010
kt CO2e
18%
2,419
-17%
-79
-5%
-122
2%
7
-1%
-16
12%
2,209
15,000
10,000
2007
5,000
0
2008
2008
2009
2010
Total GHG Emissions from Energy Supply, Base Year to 2010
Gas
Coal
Oil
Nuclear
Figure 3.13
25,000
Renewables and Hydro
NC Category Contribution to End User
Inventory by percentage of
Electricity Production Emissions
20,000
NC Ca tegory
Agri cul ture
Tra ns port
Bus i nes s
Indus tri a l Proces s
Publ i c
Res i denti a l
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Figure 3.12
10,000
kt CO2e
Traded and Non-Traded Energy
Supply Emissions, 2008-2010
CO2
Change in GHG Emissions from Base Year to 2010 and from 2009 to 2010
Table 3.3
0
2004
kt CO2e
Scotland
kt CO2e
Solid Fuel Production
GHG Contribution for Energy Supply Emissions, 2010
Overall Contribution of Energy Supply to 2010 GHG
Offshore Industry
Gas Production
Figure 3.12 emissions
Gas Production
70,000
60,000
Offshore Industry
50,000
Emissions and Electricity Production by Fuel Type from Major Power Producers
40,000
Liquid Fuel Production
60000
30,000
Energy
Supply
20,000
Electricity Production
10,000
50000
0
Solid Fuel Production
-10,000
Electricity Generation (GWh)
kt CO2e
Energy Supply
Electricity Production
Offshore Industry
Gas Production
2010
Sum of Non-Traded GHGI All GHGs
Sum of Traded Emissions CO2 only
Figure 3.14
EndUs er
1.98%
1.21%
53.68%
0.00%
4.86%
38.26%
Table 3.4
Solid Fuel Production
2009
UK electricity grid GHG factor basis
for end user inventories, so
….investment in Scotland renewables
wouldn’t necessarily pan out into
inventory reductions IN SCOTLAND –
will lead to reductions in reported
emissions across the UK.
Liquid Fuel Production
Traded and Non-Traded Energy
Supply Emissions, 2008-2010
25,000
25
Table 3.5
4,000
2,000
Other Transport
Table 3.5
Sub-sector
Ai rcra ft & Ai rports
Indus tri a l Combus ti on of fuel s
Other Tra ns port
Roa d Tra ns port
Sta ti ona ry a nd mobi l e combus ti on
Tota l
FigureBY-2010
3.17
%
42.4%
-100.0%
-27.1%
12,000
3.8%
-47.1%
10,000
1.9%
2009-2010
kt CO2e
%
kt CO2e
150
-9.4%
-52.6
Road
(fuel sales)
-6 Transport
- CO2 Emissions
0.00
-291
-3.1%
-25.0
345
0.2%
22.5
-1.9
1.2%
0.0
196
-0.5%
-55.1
14
4,000
12
CO22,000
10
Stationary
Other
Aircraft &
and mobile Transport Airports
combustion
Road
Industrial
Transport Combustion
Figure 3.19
of fuels
Figure 3.17
0
LGVs
1990
HGVs
2006
Buses
2007
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2
0
Cars
2003
4
2002
6
2001
0
6,000
2,000
8
2000
0
2,000
EndUser
Source
4,000
1999
4,000
1995
6,000
1990 Mt CO2e
kt CO2e
CH4
kt CO2
6,000
N2O
8,000
2010
10,000
8,000
Comparison of End User and By Source
Transport Emissions, 2010
1998
kt CO2
10,000
2009
0
constrained
1990
2006 (DUKES
2007
2008fuel2009
2010
Cars
LGVs
HGVs
Buses
Motorcycles
sales)
and unconstrained
Figure
3.18
Figure 3.19
(vehicle Road
kilometre,
vkm)
Transport CO2 Emissions (vkm)
approaches
12,000
8,000
Pollutant Contribution to Transport sub-categories, 2010
2008

1990
2
2007
Stationary and mobile combustion
0Aircraft & Airports
Road Transport
Industrial
CombustionOther
of fuels
Stationary
Aircraft &
Road
Industrial
and mobile Transport Airports Transport Combustion
Change in GHG Emissions from Base Year to 2010 andcombustion
from 2009 to 2010
of fuels
Figure 3.16
2006
Percentage of total emissions
Figure 3.15
2005
0
20.1%
CO2
2004
2,000
CH4
6,000
2003
4,000
N2O
2002
8,000
Increase
despite
Comparison of End User and By Source
EndUser
Transport Emissions, 2010
Source
improvements
in efficiency of
14
8,000
12
transport
vehicles, as a result
6,000
10
of 8strong growth in transport
4,000
demand
and increased
6
2,000
4
affordability
of cars and fuel
0
10,000
2001
0
6,000
Pollutant Contribution to Transport sub-categories, 2010
kt CO2
Mt CO2e
20,000
8,000
kt CO2e
kt CO2e
kt CO2e
40,000
10,000
12,000

2000
10,000
Tra ns port
-20,000
Tota l
1999
Total GHG Emissions from Transport, Base Year - 2010
Overall Contribution of Transport to 2010 GHG
14,000
emissions
80,000
12,000
1998
Transport
1995
Sub-sector
Ai rcra ft & Ai rports
Indus tri a l Combus ti on of fuel s
Other Tra ns port
Scotland
Roa d Tra
ns port
Sta ti ona ry a nd mobi l e combus ti on
Sectoral Analysis: Transport
60,000
BY-2010
2009-2010
%
kt CO2e0
%
kt CO2e
42.4%
150 Stationary
-9.4%
-52.6 Aircraft &
Other
Road
Industrial
-100.0%
-6 and mobile- Transport
0.00 Airports Transport Combustion
of fuels
-27.1%
-291 combustion
-3.1%
-25.0
3.8% Figure 3.17
345
0.2%
22.5
-47.1%
-1.9
1.2%
0.0
Road
Transport
CO2
Emissions (fuel sales)
1.9%
196
-0.5%
-55.1
Motorcycles
2008
2009
2010
Figure 3.20
Cars
LGVs
HGVs
Buses
Motorcycles
Figure 3.18
Road Transport CO2 Emissions (fuel sales)
Road Transport CO2 Emissions (vkm)
26
Sectoral Analysis: Residential
Scotland
Residential
Overall Contribution of Residential sector to 2010 GHG
emissions
70,000
10,000
Total GHG Emissions by sub-sector, Base Year - 2010
60,000
8,000
50,000
Res idential
kt CO2e
kt CO2e
40,000
30,000
20,000

Increase in emissions
– cold winters and a resultant
high demand for fossil

End User
– high consumption of electricity
in the sector
– improvements in housing
energy efficiency and lower
carbon intensity of the
electricity generation
6,000
4,000
10,000
2,000
0
-10,000
0
15.7%
Percentage of total emissions
Figure 3.21
Aerosols and metered dose inhalers and other household products
Other
Residential combustion
Figure 3.22
Change in GHG Emissions from Base Year to 2010 and from 2009 to 2010
Table 3.6
Sub-sector
Aeros ol s a nd metered dos e i nha l ers
a nd other hous ehol d products
Other
Res i denti a l combus ti on
%
BY-2010
kt CO2e
%
2009-2010
kt CO2e
148.5%
-33.8%
-0.3%
214
-0.04
-25
-1.9%
-0.2%
15.4%
-7
0.0
1,071.8
2.3%
189
14.6%
1,064.7
Tota l
Pollutant contribution to Residential Emissions, 2010
Comparison between End User and By Source Inventory
Totals, 2010 (Mt CO2e)
9,000
25
8,000
EndUser
Source
7,000
20
5,000
4,000
N2O
3,000
HFCs
2,000
CH4
1,000
CO2
15
10
5
0
Residential
combustion
Figure 3.23
Mt CO2e
kt CO2e
6,000
Other
Aerosols and
metered dose
inhalers and
other household
products
0
1990
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Figure 3.24
27
Sectoral Analysis: Business
Scotland
Business
Overall Contribution to 2010 GHG emissions
70,000
10,000
60,000
8,000
40,000
kt CO2e
kt CO2e
50,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
Bus iness
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
0
-10,000
Figure 3.25
Total GHG Emissions from Business, Base Year - 2010
12,000
14.10%
Percentage of total emissions
Industrial Combustion of fuels

Use of Flourinated Gases
Refrigeration and air conditioning
Iron and steel - combustion and electricity
Figure 3.26
Change in GHG Emissions from Base Year to 2010 and from 2009 to 2010
Table 3.7
Sub-sector
Indus tri a l Combus ti on of fuel s
Iron a nd s teel - combus ti on a nd
el ectri ci ty
Refri gera ti on a nd a i r condi ti oni ng
Us e of Fl ouri na ted Ga s es
BY-2010
%
kt CO2e
-23.8%
-2,003.8
%
2009-2010
kt CO2e
1.5%
92.6
-98.2%
1350.8%
50.5%
-2,765.8
842.7
48.9
37.8%
4.0%
-1.6%
14.3
34.4
-2.3
-34.1%
-3,878.1
1.9%
138.9
Tota l
CO2

End User: high
consumption of electricity
for heating, lighting and
operating equipment
PFCs
Mt CO2e
N2O
Source
20
HFCs
Refrigeration and air
conditioning
Increasing F-Gas use
EndUser
25
CH4
Use of Flourinated Gases

Comparison between End User and
By Source Inventory for the Business Sector, 1990
and 2006-2010 (Mt CO2e)
Pollutant Contribution for Business Emissions, 2010
Industrial Combustion of
fuels
declining manufacturing
and iron and steel industry
emissions
15
10
SF6
5
Iron and steel combustion and electricity
0
0
Figure 3.27
2,000
4,000
kt CO2e
6,000
8,000
1990
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
lack of detail in the EU ETS dataset,
Business and Industrial Process
emissions are not easy to separate
Figure 3.28
28
Sectoral Analysis: Public Service
Scotland
Public
Total GHG Emissions from Public, Base Year - 2010
Overall Contribution of Public
sector to 2010 GHG emissions
1,400
80,000
1,200
1,000
kt CO2e
60,000
kt CO2e
Public Sector
Publ ic
40,000
800

building energy
efficiency

convert to the use of
gas-fired boilers

End user = 193% of the
by source emission
– High % electricity
use
600
400
20,000
200
0
0
-20,000
Figure 3.30
Figure 3.29
1.64%
Percentage of total emissions
Table 3.8
Change in GHG Emissions from Base Year to 2010 and from 2009 to 2010
BY-2010
2009-2010
Sub-sector
%
kt CO2e
%
kt CO2e
Publ i c Sector
-28.7%
-351
3.1%
26
Comparison between End User and By Source Inventory
for the Public Sector, 1990 and 2006-2010 (Mt CO2e)
EndUser
Public Sector Emissions by Pollutant,
2010
Source
3.5
3.0
kt CO2e
Mt CO2e
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Figure 3.31
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
N2O
CH4
CO2
Public Sector
1990
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Figure 3.32
29
Sectoral Analysis: Industrial Process
Scotland
Overall Contribution of Industrial Process to 2010 GHG
emissions
2,000
80,000
1,800
1,600
60,000
1,400
Industrial
1,200
40,000
Proces s
1,000
20,000
800
600
0
400
200
-20,000
0
Total GHG Emissions from Industrial Process, Base Year - 2010
kt CO2e
kt CO2e
Industrial Process
0.73%
Base 1990 1995 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Year
Percentage of total emissions
Figure 3.33
Figure 3.34
Cement production
Chemical Production
Electricity Production
Iron & Steel
Change in GHG Emissions from Base Year to 2010 and from 2009 to 2010
Table 3.9
Sub-sector
Cement producti on
Chemi ca l Producti on
El ectri ci ty Producti on
Iron & Steel
Other Proces s es
Tota l
BY-2010
%
-44.8%
-91.9%
-100.0%
-100.0%
6.5%
kt CO2e
-229
-464
-152
-595
4
2009-2010
%
-1.2%
-23.1%
0.4%
0.5%
kt CO2e
-3.5
-12.3
0.0
0.0
0.3
-78.7%
-1436
-3.8%
-15.4
Pollutant Contribution for Industrial Process Emissions, 2010
Iron & Steel
Other Processes

Closure
– nitric acid plant,
– Ravenscraig iron and
steel works,

Reduction in emissions
from the chemicals and
cement sectors
CO2
CH4
Chemical Production
HFCs
Other Processes
N2O
PFCs
Electricity Production
SF6
Cement production
0
Figure 3.35
50
100
150
kt CO2e
200
250
300
lack of detail in the EU ETS dataset,
Business and Industrial Process
emissions are not easy to separate
30
Sectoral Analysis: Agriculture
Scotland
Agriculture
Overall Contribution to 2010 GHG emissions
Agriculture Emissions by category and pollutant, 2010
80,000
Crop Growing and Fertilizer Application
kt CO2e
60,000
Livestock
40,000
20,000
Agri cul ture
0

Almost 85% of total N2O
– fertiliser nitrogen use,
manure applications and
grazing returns to soils
– declined by 21.6% 19902010 from decline in
livestock numbers (manure)
and in fertiliser nitrogen use

CH4 affected by decline in
numbers of livestock (15.5%
decline over the period 19902010)

End User: Majority of
emissions in the agriculture
sector are not due to energy
consumption.
CO2
CH4
Field burning of agricultural wastes
N2O
Stationary and mobile combustion
-20,000
Figure 3.36
14.93%
Figure 3.37
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
kt CO2e
Percentage of total emissions
Change in GHG Emissions from Base Year to 2010 and from 2009 to 2010
Table 3.10
Sub-sector
Crop Growi ng a nd Ferti l i zer Appl i ca ti on
Fi el d burni ng of a gri cul tura l wa s tes
Li ves tock
Sta ti ona ry a nd mobi l e combus ti on
Tota l
BY-2010
%
kt CO2e
-21.2%
-1,124.2
-100.0%
-8.2
-15.4%
-542.6
-20.0%
-202.2
-19.1%
-1,877.1
%
2009-2010
kt CO2e
-0.6%
-23.2
0.00
0.5%
13.9
1.4%
11.2
0.0%
1.9
Total GHG emissions from Agriculture, Base Year - 2010
12,000
Livestock emissions by type, 2010
10,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
6,000
kt CO2e
ktCO2e
8,000
4,000
2,000
2,000
1,500
1,000
Sheep
Poultry
Pigs
Manure liquid systems
Horses
Goats
Deer
Cattle
500
0
0
Stationary and mobile combustion
Livestock
Figure 3.39
Field burning of agricultural wastes
Crop Growing and Fertilizer Application
Figure 3.38
31
Sectoral Analysis: LULUCF
Scotland
LULUCF
Overall Contribution to 2010 GHG emissions
Pollutant Contribution to LULUCF GHG Emissions, 2010
80,000
Wood Products & Harvesting
kt CO2e
60,000
40,000
Creation and Maintenance of Settlements
20,000
Land Converted to Grass, Crop and Forest

reduction in emissions from land
conversion to cropland from grassland
and forests.

largest source = Cropland (5,321
ktCO2e in 2010) (including
maintenance and conversion to)
releases carbon from clearing of
biomass and from ploughing of soils.

Removals from the maintenance of,
and conversion to, forestland and
grassland. Long-term forest
management (the extensive conifer
plantations established in the mid-20th
century are now reaching felling age,
with reduced removals from forest but
with increased carbon stocks in
harvested wood products in recent
years).
CO2
0
CH4
N2O
La nd Use
Cha nge
Land Maintained as Crops, Grass and Forest
-20,000
Figure 3.40
-8,000
-10.25%
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
kt CO2e
Percentage of total emissions
Table 3.13
Change in GHG Emissions from Base Year to 2010 and from 2009 to 2010
BY-2010
Sub-sector
%
kt CO2e
Crea ti on a nd Ma i ntena nce of Settl ements
-10.3%
-180.4
La nd Converted to Gra s s , Crop a nd Fores t
-49.8%
-1,983.5
La nd Ma i nta i ned a s Crops , Gra s s a nd Fores t
0.4%
-26.0
Wood Products & Ha rves ti ng
163.3%
-1,177.7
Tota l
161.0%
-3,367.7
Figure 3.42
0
2,000
4,000
Figure 3.41
2009-2010
kt CO2e
-0.8%
-13.1
-11.1%
-249.3
-13.0%
1,066.6
57.1%
-690.0
-2.0%
114.1
%
Land Maintained as Crops, Grass and Forest
Land Converted to Grass, Crop and Forest
Creation and Maintenance of Settlements
Wood Products & Harvesting
Total
Total GHG Emissions from LULUCF, Base Year - 2010
6,000
4,000
2,000
kt CO2e
0
-2,000
-4,000
-6,000
-8,000
-10,000
Base
Year
1990
1995
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
-12,000
32
Sectoral Analysis: Waste
Scotland
Waste
Overall Contribution of Waste Management to
2010 GHG emissions
Total GHG Emissions from Waste Management, Base Year - 2010
7,000
80,000
6,000
Wa s te
Ma na gement
5,000
40,000
kt CO2e
kt CO2e
60,000
Other
Waste-water handling
Landfill
20,000
0
Assumptions on progressive
introduction of methane capture
and oxidation systems within
landfill management
4,000
3,000
2,000
-20,000
4.05%
1,000
Percentage of total emissions
0
Figure 3.43
Figure 3.44
Table 3.14
Base 1990 1995 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Year
Change in GHG Emissions from Base Year to 2010 and from 2009 to 2010
BY-2010
2009-2010
Sub-sector
%
kt CO2e
%
kt CO2e
La ndfi l l
-68.4%
-4,369.7
-3.3%
-68.4
Other
-74.3%
-37.2
3.4%
0.4
Wa s te-wa ter ha ndl i ng
-7.9%
-10.5
-0.2%
-0.2
Total
-67.2%
-4,417.4
-3.1%
-68.2

Pollutant contribution to Waste Management Emissions, 2010
Other
CO2
Waste-water handling
CH4
– Scotland DON’T have any data specific to
methane combustion in flares and gas
engines
N2O
Landfill
Figure 3.45
The UK waste model methane from landfills
based statistics on waste arisings,
degradation rates of different components of
waste, and UK-wide estimates of methane
capture and oxidation, both in the landfill
surface layer and in flares and gas engines.)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
kt CO2e
33
Overview: Changes (due to new data and/or improved inventory
estimation methodologies) since 2011 estimates

2009 Recalculations :
– Business: (1,007 ktCO2e increase)
• industrial combustion allocation of (OPG) use in Scotland across the inventory time series and updated Inter-Departmental
Business Register; increased estimates by around 500 ktCO2e in Scotland in 2009.
• UK HFC model for refrigeration and air conditioning equipment increased the estimates for Scotland in 2009 by 256 ktCO 2e;
– Energy Supply: (324 ktCO2e increase)
•
•
–

revision of OPG use in petroleum refining and revisions to gas oil allocations to the upstream oil and gas sector.
reduction in estimates for 2009 of emissions from closed coal mines due to updated analysis from the update to closed coal
mine emission estimates.
Waste Management: (149 ktCO2e increase)
• from revisions to the UK waste model and also revisions to use more DA-specific input data to derive country-specific
estimates.
Base Year estimates have been for the following sectors:
–
–
–
Business: (789 kt CO2e increase)
• revision to industrial combustion allocation of OPG use in Scotland across the inventory time series and revisions to UK
inventory allocations of gas oil.
Agriculture: (194 kt CO2e decrease)
• revisions to emission estimates from agricultural soils.
Waste Management: (96 kt CO2e increase)
• revisions to the UK GHGI landfill waste model and revisions to the DA landfill waste method to utilise more country-specific
data for waste disposals to landfill.


For more details of revisions to DA GHG emission estimates, see Appendix 7.
34
Uncertainties: By Source

UK (+-16%).

England (+-14%)

Scotland (+-27%),

Wales (+-19%)

Northern Ireland (+-38%)

Scottish uncertainties high:
Base Year
– LULUCF sources
– N2O from agric soils
– F-Gases: 2010 dispersed and heavily
modelled and uncertain:
• In 1995, >80% of F-gas industrial
sources (manufacture, Aluminium
production etc.)
• 2010, ~70% refrigeration sources
(UK F-gas model) ~ 20% from
aerosols
Gas (kt CO2e)
Central
Estimate
Latest Year (2010)
Uncertainty
Introduced
on total
Uncertainty
Introduced
on total
Central
Estimate
Cent
Estim
Scotland
Carbon Dioxide CO2
50,942
10%
41,339
10%
Methane CH4
11,860
31%
5,581
22%
6,666
260%
5,016
271%
113
87
31
8%
17%
17%
1,182
49
47
7%
58%
20%
69,699
26%
53,214
27%
Nitrous Oxide N2O
HFC
PFC
SF6
Total
From 2012 DA GHGI report: Appendix 1- Table A1.1 Estimated Uncertainties in the DA GHG Inventories: Base Years, 2010 and Trend
35
Drivers to Scotland / DA GHGI Improvement
•
Monitoring against targets (Climate Change (Scotland) Act , WG CC Strategy, NI
DoE development of targets is on-going), carbon budgets
•
GHGI data underpins emission projections, policy appraisal, and cost-benefit analysis
of policies and programmes
•
Reduce data uncertainty (overshadows trends in some sectors)
•
Improve data accuracy & sensitivity: (1) better understanding of opportunities for
GHG savings, (2) reflect local policy impacts
36
36
Scotland GHGI Improvement Examples (1)
STRATEGIC ISSUES
EU ETS data needed earlier from regulators to feed into DUKES data, as in other MS
(benefit to UK GHGI also)

Needs more resources for regulators (SEPA etc.) & stakeholder relationships with
DECC
ENHANCE SCOTLAND-SPECIFIC DATA / SURVEYS
e.g. Agriculture inventory method needs to be more detailed if the GHGI is to be
sensitive enough to reflect changes in breeds, feeds, manure management…

Develop more rigorous data capture systems, include local research findings
(Emission Factors & Activity Data)
37
37
Scotland GHGI Improvement Examples (2)
DEVELOP NEW DATA MECHANISMS
Very little local data on energy use for domestic, commercial, small-scale industry….

Need more bottom-up data. Develop data reporting requirements and access more
information from local fuel suppliers, gas grid operators, oil merchants etc.
ENSURE FULL ACCESS TO EXISTING DATA
More electronically available data, less paper-based regulation. Establish data supply
agreements with key operators / organisations, e.g. to overcome barriers of data
confidentiality.

Need more bottom-up data and ability to correctly interpret available data. Recent
example is the need to better understand precise fuel types used in major EU ETS
facilities, to help resolve data discrepancies with DUKES energy statistics.
38
38
Summary of points

Good Scottish GHG inventory = good quality Scottish activity data and emission factors
– – access to latest research, access to your data gathering systems for policy reporting, more
surveys, better surveys etc.

Transport GHGI data at UK level – resolved to sales data.
– Availability of both DUKES-constrained and unconstrained data,

Waste sector model – limitations, assumptions needed (UK and Scotland level)
– DON’T have any data specific to methane combustion in flares and gas engines

Very limited energy data
– no “Scottish energy balance”. Fairly good gas data, but NO solid or liquid fuel data. total
allocation of gas, coal, oil use is not known

Agricultural statistics

Better EUETS integration needed
– Time
– Willingness from UK/Scottish stats

Further integration with Policy makers to provide policy-specific data or reporting outputs.

End Users model: Electricity data by sector are very limited for Scotland, Wales, N Ireland,
England, so there is high uncertainty on sector allocation.
39
Devolved Administration GHG inventory Report

http://naei.defra.gov.uk/report_link.php?report_id=709

Spreadsheet on detailed data

Spreadsheet for Graphs and tables
40
Justin Goodwin
Director
Aether
99 Milton Park
Abingdon,
OX14 4RY UK
t: +44 1243 512932 | Mobile: +44 7525 211 475.
e: [email protected]
w: www.aether-uk.com
w: www.environmenttools.com
Glen Thistlethwaite
Manager, DA GHG inventory
Ricardo-AEA
The Gemini Building
Fermi Avenue
Harwell
Didcot
OX11 0QR
t: +44 (0)870 190 6584
e: [email protected]
w: http://www.ricardo-aea.com
41