WMO-FAO Training Workshop on GIS and Remote Sensing Applications in Agricultural Meteorology for the SADC Countries Gaborone, Botswana, 14-18 November 2005 FAO tools to.
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WMO-FAO Training Workshop on GIS and Remote Sensing Applications in Agricultural Meteorology for the SADC Countries Gaborone, Botswana, 14-18 November 2005 FAO tools to support food-security activities: AgroMetShell, LocClim, WinDisp Michele Bernardi Environment and Natural Resources Service Research, Training and Extension Division Sustainable Development Department AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Outline 1. About 2. Background on Food Security 3. Needs for Food Security Information 4. Structure of FSIEWS 5. Agmet Component of FSIEWS 6. FAO Agmet Unit 7. FSIEWS and Agmet Component Users’ Needs 8. FAO’s Agmet Unit approach 9. AgroMetShell 10. New_LocClim 11. WinDisp AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Global food insecurity situation % undernourished < 2.5 2.5–5 5–20 20–35 >35 800 millions undernourished people AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Definition of food security The following definition of food security was adopted unanimously at the World Food Summit (October 1996): “Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.” (Plan of Action, paragraph 1) This definition is in keeping with the three classic aspects of food security: availability of staple foods, stability of supplies and access for all to these supplies; but it also contains the idea of adapted food, what is known as the “biological utilization” of food. AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Needs for food security information Forecasting must be applied to availability, stability, access and biological utilization, giving decision-makers enough time to react to the warning, but with a high enough degree of reliability (as a general rule the more long-term the forecasts the less reliable they are) to avoid false alarms. All forecasts have a probability rating, which gives a good idea of its reliability. Forecasting techniques are generally based on information gained from monitoring the situation using: Trend analyses (e.g. prices going to continue rising in the coming months?); Indirect indicators (e.g. agro-meteorological data); Multiple indicators (e.g. commercial stocks and transport difficulties); Warning signals (i.e. indicators, usually combined, that set off the alarm.) AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Food for all AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Structure of the food security information and early warning system AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Structure of the food security information and early warning system Agricultural production monitoring (APM), normally combined with monitoring of the products of livestock farming; Market information system (MIS) that usually monitors domestic trade and sometimes international trade (import/export); Social monitoring of the most vulnerable populations or monitoring of groups at risk (MGR) that focus on monitoring poverty; Food and nutritional surveillance system (also called food and nutrition monitoring) (FNSS), which generally, depending on the situation, monitors the health and nutritional status of populations. AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Agmet component of the FSIEWS The agmet component is integrated into the agricultural production monitoring, particularly, concerning cereal crops and pasture. The crop monitoring and forecasting methods are developed around the water balance calculated during the growing season and take into account the phenological development of the plant. The monitoring of rainfed crops is based on the following principal tools: Use of real-time meteorological data; Use of crop specific water balance models; Processing of real-time satellite images; Use of spatial interpolation tools; Use of gridded surfaces of crop-related parameters derived or not from satellite images; Use of seasonal forecasts; Field sample surveys, mainly for harvest estimates. AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FSIEWS and agmet component users’ needs Farm Weather ? ? Crop Modis sensor on Aqua satellite image of Zimbabwe (1km resolution) AGMET UNIT ? FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FSIEWS and agmet component users’ needs Meteorological stations AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FSIEWS and agmet component users’ needs Climatic data AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FSIEWS and agmet component users’ needs Climatic data AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FSIEWS and agmet component users’ needs Climatic data AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FSIEWS and agmet component users’ needs 20010430 -999 42 -999 0 6/------- 6009 42 35 0 1 6/-///WW- 6010 43 37 1 1 6/////R/R 6011 -999 39 -999 0 6/------- 6012 56 43 23 23 6//MMRR/W 6030 53 42 -999 0 6//FF//// 6043 57 44 -999 0 6//////// 6049 57 45 11 11 6//////// 6052 61 48 0 0 6////W/// 6058 AGMET UNIT Near real-time meteorological data FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FSIEWS and agmet component users’ needs Reference data AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FSIEWS and agmet component users’ needs http://edcsnw4.cr.usgs.gov/adds/ AGMET UNIT Rainfall monitoring FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FSIEWS and agmet component users’ needs Seasonal rainfall forecast AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FSIEWS and agmet component users’ needs http://www.dmc.co.zw/ AGMET UNIT Seasonal rainfall forecast FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FSIEWS and agmet component users’ needs Agricultural statistics AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FSIEWS and agmet component users’ needs Sub-national agroclimatic statistics for Africa AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FSIEWS and agmet component users’ needs Crop Production System Zones for the Horn of Africa AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FSIEWS and agmet component users’ needs Agricultural statistics AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FSIEWS and agmet component users’ needs Crop Calendar AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FSIEWS and agmet component users’ needs Planting opportunities from 11 March to 20 July 2005 Planting dates AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FSIEWS and agmet component users’ needs Southern Africa Main Maize Cropping Zones (Rice in Madagascar) Cropping areas AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FSIEWS and agmet component users’ needs Ranet Data dissemination to the end-user AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS SDRN-Agrometeorological unit [email protected] AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS SDRN-Agrometeorological unit Agro-climatic databases Development and standardization of tools and methods of agro-climatic databases and application software Crop monitoring ad yield forecasting Climate-related risk in agriculture Disaster Impact Assessment Technical backstopping of field projects AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FAO’s Agmet Unit approach Total synergy with national and regional institutions; Development of tools and methods; Re-habilitation and/or strengthening of (agro)meteorological and communication network; Development of integrated toolboxes; Capacity building of local staff. AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Crop monitoring and yield forecasting AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Crop monitoring and yield forecasting Data processing chain P3 Data archiving P1 P4 Pre-processing P2 Data formatting AGMET UNIT Processing Analysis and interpretation FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Crop monitoring and yield forecasting 20010430 -999 42 -999 0 6/------- 6009 42 35 0 1 6/-///WW- 6010 43 37 1 1 6/////R/R 6011 -999 39 -999 0 6/------- 6012 56 43 23 23 6//MMRR/W 6030 53 42 -999 0 6//FF//// 6043 57 44 -999 0 6//////// 6049 57 45 11 11 6//////// 6052 61 48 0 0 6////W/// 6058 AGMET UNIT Near real-time meteorological data FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Crop monitoring and yield forecasting Field reports AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Crop monitoring and yield forecasting Estimate of planting dates AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Crop monitoring and yield forecasting FAOCLIM-NET Data Management System for point and grid data AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Satellite imagery Digital Elevation Model (4 km resolution) AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Satellite imagery Land Cover Map (1 km resolution) AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Satellite imagery Meteosat Thermal Infrared image (5.5 km resolution) AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Satellite imagery Meteosat Second Generation composite image (1 km resolution) AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Satellite imagery MODIS-Terra 250m (Zambia-Malawi) AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Satellite imagery Cold Cloud Duration AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Satellite imagery Rain Fall Estimate AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Satellite imagery NDVI-GAC AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Satellite imagery SPOT-4 VEGETATION AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FAO Agro-meteorological toolbox AgroMetShell AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FAO Agro-meteorological toolbox Free-ware software Modularity Standard files format Import-export files format Training support Technical support Long-term sustainability AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FAO Agro-meteorological toolbox Crop Specific Water Balance Model Database • By Country, by Main Modules Station, by List • Meteorological • Climatic Spatial Interpolation • Maize • Inverse distance • Millet (bulrush) • SEDI (inverse distance) • Tef • SEDI (regression) • Wheat • Cokriging • Sorghum • Agronomic • Finger Millet • Soil • Flooded rice • Import • Upland rice • Export Agromet Tools • ETP • Any crop • Solar radiation estimate Image Analysis • Display • Color table edit • Image calculation with formula • Dekadal from monthly Statistical Tools • Cut-off image values • Day and night-time temperatures • Correlation • Rescale image • ET0 • LGP • Potential yield AGMET • RiskUNIT analysis • Multiple regression • PCA • Simple variogram • Create image from other outputs • Trends • Gamma distribution FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FAO Agro-meteorological toolbox Main window AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FAO Agro-meteorological toolbox Visual menu AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FAO Agro-meteorological toolbox Some components AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FAO Agro-meteorological toolbox Agro-climatic database management AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FAO Agro-meteorological toolbox Agro-climatic database management AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FAO Agro-meteorological toolbox Agro-climatic database management AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FAO Agro-meteorological toolbox Agro-meteorological model AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FAO Agro-meteorological toolbox Agro-meteorological model AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FAO Agro-meteorological toolbox Agro-meteorological model AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FAO Agro-meteorological toolbox Agro-meteorological model AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FAO Agro-meteorological toolbox Other agro-meteorological tools AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FAO Agro-meteorological toolbox Spatial interpolation tools AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FAO Agro-meteorological toolbox Image manipulation tools AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FAO Agro-meteorological toolbox Import-export links of AMS toolbox WinDisp New_LocClim AGMET UNIT Addapix CropWat FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FAO Agro-meteorological toolbox P R E P D AT A BOUND AC O M P I X M e r g e s s u i ta b l y a te m p o r a l s e q u e n c e o f im a g e s (o p t i o n a l ) s e l e c t s t h e r e g i o n (s ) t o w h i c h t o r e s tr i c t th e c l u s te r i n g p r o c e d u r e P r i n c i p a l C o m p o n e n ts A n a l y s i s o f th e ta b l e p ix e ls x tim e v a ria b le s ADDAPIX: Program chaining for zoning mode N G P IX E X T R AC T D I S P L AY S E LE CT AGMET UNIT N o n -h i e r a r c h i c a l C l u s t e r i n g o f P i x e l s C o n v e r ts a n y p a r ti ti o n c o m p u te d b y N G P IX i n to a c l a s s i fi e d i m a g e fo r D IS P L A Y D is p la y s p r o file s o f p ix e ls a n d c la s s e s in g ra p h ic fo r m S e l e c ts o n l y p i x e l s b e l o n g i n g to s o m e c l a s s e s fo r fu r th e r p r o c e s s i n g FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FAO Agro-meteorological toolbox ADDAPIX: Program chaining for monitoring mode AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FAO Agro-meteorological toolbox Zoning mode: Agroecological zoning of Morocco with NOAA-GAC NDVI data AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FAO Agro-meteorological toolbox Monitoring mode: Assessment of 1999 Cereal Production in Western Africa with NOAA-GAC NDVI data AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FAO Agro-meteorological toolbox ADDAPIX: Monitoring mode AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FAO Agro-meteorological toolbox Classification of National Rainfall Index AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FAO Agro-meteorological toolbox AMS website AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FAO Agro-meteorological toolbox Seasonal Rainfall from 1 October 2001 to 31 March 2005 Total amount Rainfall monitoring AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FAO Agro-meteorological toolbox Seasonal Rainfall from 1 October 2001 to 31 March 2005 Percentage as compared to normal (1961-90) Rainfall monitoring AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FAO Agro-meteorological toolbox SADC Countries – Cropping Season 2004-05 Agro-meteorological Maize Yield Forecast as at 31st March 2005 Crop yield forecast in SADC Country AGMET UNIT Average Yield Forecast Yield 2000-04 2005 T/Ha T/Ha Angola 0.6 0.5 Botswana 0.1 0.08 Lesotho 0.8 0.8 Malawi 1.3 0.6 Mozambique 0.9 1.0 Namibia 1.0 1.4 Swaziland 1.2 1.6 Tanzania 1.6 1.2 South Africa 2.9 3.0 Zambia 1.5 1.4 Zimbabwe 0.9 0.8 FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FAO Agro-meteorological toolbox SAHELIAN COUNTRIES - Cropping Season 2005 Millet Yield Forecast as at 30th September Crop yield forecast in Sahel AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS New_LocClim New_LocClim - Local Climate Estimator AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS New_LocClim LocClim - Local Climate Estimator AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS New_LocClim LocClim - Local Climate Estimator AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS New_LocClim LocClim - Local Climate Estimator AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS New_LocClim LocClim - Local Climate Estimator AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS New_LocClim LocClim - Local Climate Estimator AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS New_LocClim LocClim - Local Climate Estimator AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS New_LocClim LocClim - Local Climate Estimator AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS LocClim Web Version AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Global Water Stress Map No problems 25-44 % deficit + episodic excess >= 45 % deficit + episodic excess 25-44 % excess + episodic deficit >45 % excess + episodic deficit January to March 2001 LocClim - Local Climate Estimator Not suitable for agriculture or no growing season in January-March AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS WinDisp WinDisp - Display and analysis tool AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS WinDisp WinDisp - Display and analysis tool AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS WinDisp WinDisp - Display and analysis tool AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS WinDisp WinDisp - Display and analysis tool AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Useful Websites AgroMetShell http://www.hoefsloot.com/agrometshell.htm Links of agro-meteorology http://www.fao.org/sd/ENlin_en.htm Digital datasets and agro-meteorological data http://metart.fao.org/default.htm WinDisp http://www.fao.org/WAICENT/faoinfo/economic/giews/ english/windisp/windisp.htm FAO-WMO Agro-meteorology Internet Conference [email protected] International Society for Agricultural Meteorology http://www.agrometeorology.org AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FAO Hqs http://www.fao.org AGMET UNIT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS