GORDON WILMSMEIER Economic Affairs Officer Infrastructure Services Unit (ISU) Natural Resources and Infrastructure Division (NRID) VIII CIRIAS , November 17th 2011, Porto Alegre, Brazil Structure 1.
Download ReportTranscript GORDON WILMSMEIER Economic Affairs Officer Infrastructure Services Unit (ISU) Natural Resources and Infrastructure Division (NRID) VIII CIRIAS , November 17th 2011, Porto Alegre, Brazil Structure 1.
GORDON WILMSMEIER Economic Affairs Officer Infrastructure Services Unit (ISU) Natural Resources and Infrastructure Division (NRID) VIII CIRIAS , November 17th 2011, Porto Alegre, Brazil Structure 1. Infrastructure and development 2. Investments and gaps 3. Infrastructure regional integration 4. Challenges and cooperation opportunities Transport infrastructure and development Global experience, both theoretically and empirically analyzed, gives valuable results regarding the positive relationship between the provision of infrastructure and economic and social development. Although in the past several questions were raised about the forms of measurement and empirical results, it is now recognized that a positive relationship exists, and that the presence of infrastructure improvements helps in explaining growth differentials among regions or countries. The services provided based on this infrastructure complement that relationship, Improved infrastructure services depend, among other factors, on appropriate conditions of physical infrastructure supply, thus both supporting improvements in productivity and competitiveness of a country or region, and contributing to economic growth. In the current design, we can no longer consider infrastructure and services in a separate manner, as it was traditionally. infrastructure services play a key role in the economic and social development. Infrastructure services effects Economic Growth Infrastructure services increase productivity / reduce production costs Inequality and poverty Access to infrastructure services (including transport) has more positive effect on income and welfare of the poorest segments. Public services and universal access. Better access to markets (e.g. work place) Improving human capital directly (access to safe water, sanitation) indirectly (transportation to school, hospital, entertainment, etc.). Infrastructure, development and equity Infrastructure stock and economic development Infrastructure stock and income inequality 7 65.0 TWN BWA KOR 5 THA MYS 4 LKA -4 SLE KEN GNB MLT HKG CYP OMN SGP IRL ARE JPN ROM PRT HUN ESP TUN GRC LUX IDN 3 IND GHA NOR PAN PAK ISL DOM RUS TTO ITA ISR BEL FINAUT MAR EGY POL LVA FRA CZE BLR USA TUR BRA SVN DEU CAN CHL AUS GBR DNKNLD SYR SWE 2 MEX COL SAU BHR IRN EST CHE ETH TZA MRT PHL ECU ZAFCRISVKNZL PRY NPL MWI URY DZA BGR BGD LBY 1 SLV PERARG COG CIVGTM BFA CMR BEN GAB RWA GMB HND YEM JAM LTU UGA BOL VEN SDN GNB KAZ NGA BDI KEN ZMB 0 TCDTGO JOR GIN HRV ZWE HTI SEN CAF NIC0 -3 -2 -1 1 2 3 AGO SLE KGZ NER -1 MDG QAT YSR UKR -2 ZAR IRQ -3 -4 Infrastructure Stock Index (WB) Gini Coefficient Growth of real GDP (%) CHN 6 4 -4 60.0 IRQ BRA ZWE 55.0 HND MEX BWA PAN SEN COL CHL BOL ECU GTM 50.0 PER ZAF BFA MDG DOM ZMB NICTUR THA SLV PHL VENCRI NGA MYS 45.0 TTO IRN PRY URY JAM NPL TUN GIN CIV LKA HKG SGP ARG TZA MRT 40.0 MAR NER ETH UGA DZA EGY JOR USA AUS GHA PRT FRA IRL GRC ITA CHN 35.0 NZL JPN KGZ KAZ KOR LTU EST NOR BGD IDN YSR LVA SWECHE IND PAK DNK DEU ISR TWN CAN 30.0 BLR RWA NLD UKR RUS GBR FIN ROMPOL ESP HRV BEL AUT SVN 25.0 CYP HUN LUX BGR CZE SVK 20.0 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 Source: Servén 2008 Infrastructure Stock IndexLuis (WB) the relationship between quality of infrastructure and real GDP per capita and the inequality of income distribution exhibits similar impacts Infrastructure, development and equity – GDP per capita and logistics performance - 2009 70000 Switzerland GDP per capita (USD) 60000 Denmark Ireland Netherlands United States Finland Belgium Sweden Australia Germany Japan France Singapore Canada Italy Spain United Kingdom 50000 40000 30000 Israel New Zealand Portugal Bahrain 20000 Korea, Rep. Mexico Venezuela, RB Panama ChileBrazil Uruguay LebanonSouth Africa Argentina Jamaica Malaysia Costa Rica Colombia El Salvador China Algeria Thailand Ecuador Iraq Guyana Vietnam India Bolivia Guatemala Peru Haiti Liberia 10000 0 2 2.5 3 3.5 Logistics Performance Index Score 4 4.5 Diagnosis and major infrastructure challenges in LAC Physical restraints or shortage High dispersion and multiplicity of public sectors views and action Institutional and regulatory obstacles or failures Weakness and/or lack of sustainability criteria Structure 1. Infrastructure and development 2. Investments and gaps 3. Infrastructure regional integration 4. Challenges and cooperation opportunities The infrastructural gap 250 Estimated transport infrastructure gap in Latin America (base year 1995 = 100) 200 150 100 50 Brecha Gap Efectivo Supply 2010p 2009p 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 0 Necesario Demand Source: ECLAC, 2010 Closing gap? Currently LAC invests 2 - 2.5% of GDP in infrastructure Required investments @5.2% of the GDP Water and Sanitation, 4% @ 7.9% of the GDP Water and Sanitation, 3% Energy, 40% Energy, 33% Transport, 22% Transport, 40% Communications, 41% Communications, 17% LAC average 2009 2006 Perú Panama Jamaica El Salvador Dominican Republic 2009 Costa Rica Colombia Brasil Argentina Chile Mexico Singapore China Japón Korea, Rep. Spain Netherlands Germany United States OECD members Logistics performance gap Logistics performance index: (1=low to 5=high) 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Infrastructure, development and equity – GDP per capita and Logistics Performance - 2009 70000 Switzerland GDP per capita in USD 60000 Denmark Ireland Netherlands United States Finland Belgium Sweden Australia Germany Japan France Singapore Canada Italy 50000 40000 Spain 30000 Israel United Kingdom New Zealand Portugal Bahrain 20000 10000 0 2 Korea, Rep. Mexico Venezuela, RBPanama ChileBrazil Uruguay LebanonSouth Africa Argentina Jamaica Malaysia Costa Rica Colombia El Salvador China Algeria Thailand Ecuador Iraq Guyana Vietnam India Bolivia Guatemala Peru Haiti Liberia 2.5 3 3.5 Logistics Performance Index Score 4 4.5 NRID/ISU - Main studies 1. World experiences on integrated policies Developed and developing economies Sub-national cases 2. LA: Public policies for and infrastructure services 13 LA countries European Union Esp. Spain 3. Infrastructure investment gaps 4. LA: Infrastructure diagnosis NRID / ISU principal investigation themes Time for Equality and economic and social development: Full development Equal rights Public policies: Comprehensive vision and approach Sustainability Sustainable transport and infrastructure services (both long and short distances, passengers and freight): Modal shift Technical regulations (emissions, fuel, engines, etc.), reaping the benefits of technological progress Pricing and economic regulations NRID / ISU principal investigation themes New equation: State‐market‐society The public sphere as a forum for collective interests and not simply for State or national matters Political agreements for a new social and intergenerational cov enant, with specific responsibilities and accountability systems Consolidation of a culture of collective development based on t olerance of difference and diversity Strategic internally defined long‐term vision that promotes covenants between the stakeholders in production Policies of State —not only of the current government or administration—channelled through institutions PUBLIC POLICIES – INSTITUTIONS, MARKET & REGULATIONS Structure 1. Infrastructure and development 2. Investments and gaps 3. Infrastructure regional integration 4. Challenges and cooperation opportunities At least three ways of integration 1. Economic and trade integration 2. Political integration 3. Physical integration 4. ... Infrastructure regional integration Sectorial and sub-sectorial composition of the IIRSA Portfolio (No of Projects and amount of investment in mill. USD) Subsector/sector Air Road Rail River Maritime Multimodal Border Crossing Energy Reg. Harmonization Energy Generation Energy Interconection Comm. Interconection TOTAL Transport No. mill. USD 24 2,690.3 207 32,991.1 61 12,746.9 74 2,837.4 31 3,391.2 15 439.7 39 293.5 Energy Communications No. mill. USD No. mill. USD 1 27 36 451 55,390.1 64 380.4 28,433.3 11,870.7 40,684.4 9 9 44.7 44.7 YPE OF FINANCING IN IIRSA PORTFOLIO Regional integration. South America infrastructure finance portfolio % of total investment 100% 21.4 80% 60% 64.0 12.1 95.3 40% 20% 0% 20.4 15.6 Transport Public Source: IIRSA (2011) 66.5 0.2 4.5 Energy Communications Private Public-Private BY TYPE AND SECTOR IN IIRSA PORTFOLIO Structure 1. Infrastructure and development 2. Investments and gaps 3. Infrastructure regional integration 4. Challenges and cooperation opportunities Cooperation framework: infrastructure and policies Opportunities • Integration & Cooperation • Criteria Low Carbon & Sustainable Transport • Integration & Cooperation • Integrated / modern policies • Logistics and Infrastructure Integrated and Sustainable Policies • Good practices, integrated policies • Capacity Building • Medium/High LPI Focused Policies Challenges • Infrastructure Gap • Lack of Sustainability • Regional Physic Integration • Low regional investments, financing troubles and small capital markets • Weak territorial cohesion and social inclusion • Isolated Policies • Institutional side • Training • Med/Low Logistics Performance PARADIGM CHANGE STRATEGY OF INTEGRATED AND SUSTAINABLE POLICIES ON INFRASTRUCTURE, LOGISTICS AND MOBILITY INTEGRALITY SUSTAINABILITY Design, Execution and Control Economic, Social, Environmental and Institutional Technical Regulations Economic regulations Modal shift CO-MODALITY Urban Inter-cities Regional International Passengers Goods Source: Cipoletta (2011) GORDON WILMSMEIER UN-ECLAC [email protected] Infrastructure and logistics organise infrastructure, logistics and mobility projects hierarchically generate and maintain statistics Logistics and productive system monitor logistical requirements of productive system encourage of logistics firms Policies and plans Strategy definition and linking policies Logistical planning Financing Harmonisation Normative framework Legal and regulatory reforms according to the policy strategy. Comprehensive vision and action for logistics and mobility I&D+ Human Resources HR training innovation in logistics, ICT, SMEs Institutionalism and participation Organisation and state conduction of the policies Government-Private Sector-Civil SocietyAcademic Interaction Provision of transport services and trade Technical regulations Simplification of procedures and documents