Transcript Culture, Catholics and Condoms: Population Planning in Kiribati Chris McMurray Australian Centre for Population Research, ANU Post-colonial Pacific characterised by slow economic but rapid population.

Culture, Catholics and Condoms:
Population Planning in Kiribati
Chris McMurray
Australian Centre for Population Research, ANU
Post-colonial Pacific characterised by slow
economic but rapid population growth
PNG, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu population
growth rates all > 2.5% per annum
Imbalance is critical in the former Gilbert Is
Tuvalu: 10,000 pop, 26 sq km, $US 910
Kiribati: 90,000, 812 sq km, $US 620.
Kiribati :92% of pop in Gilberts
41% in South Tarawa
1.8% average pop increase 1947-2000
40000
South Tarawa
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
Other Islands
0
1947 1963
1968 1973
1978 1985 1990
1995 2000
South Tarawa and Betio:
Few job opportunities, esp for school
leavers
overcrowding
lack of sanitation
pollution
infectious disease
chronic disease.
,
Scenario
Annual
emigration
A.
Average
children per
family in
2025
. 2.1
Maximum
popn size
(approx)
None
Kiribati
total
population
in 2025
136,000
174,000
Year
stability
achieved
(approx)
2065
B.
. 2.1
-500
120,000
132,000
2050
C.
None
150,000
260,000
2090
-500
132,000
190,000
2070
E.
3.3
(2.1 by 2055)
3.3
(2.1 by 2055)
Stays at 4.3
None
163,000
Infinite
Never
F.
Stays at 4.3
-500
143,000
Infinite
Never
D.
Population Policy
1.
2.
3.
Population education to promote
fertility reduction
Development of new growth centres to
relieve pressure on South Tarawa
Permanent overseas settlement to
limit population increase.
What are the prospects for success?
The population policy = behaviour modification
Only worth modifying if there are benefits
Policy success depends on a promise – that
future benefits will outweigh present sacrifices
….so…..
benefits must come within a reasonable time so
the sacrificers receive the benefits.
1. Fertility decline
The hardest objective to achieve.
I-Kiribati like large families and see children as
security
 >50 per cent Catholic who oppose modern
contraception
 Fertility based on individual decisions, while
benefits may appear general not individual
 Few other ways for women to achieve status.

The only real motivator is higher
economic returns from children – i.e. big
growth in employment opportunities
Promoting emigration also has risks

Work opportunities overseas to lead to
a brain drain and also may sustain
higher fertility.
2. Growth centres
Urbanisation promotes lower fertility, but
decentralisation is always difficult
 Kiritimati only real growth centre – lots of unused
land but high cost location
 North Tabiteuea is based on hospital services
 Temaiku is another South Tarawa suburb
None likely to generate much employment, so no
great incentive to reduce fertility.
3. Permanent emigration
Objective = -500 per year……..
…to where????
Even if modified to ‘guest workers’
……to where? To do what??
Competitors:
-> Australia: Nauru, Solomons, PNG
-> NZ: Samoa, Tonga, Cooks,
Tokelau, Tuvalu.
Conclusion
Kiribati Population Policy is part of the
national development strategy
Success depends on substantial economic
growth and employment generation…
…soon enough to convince potential child
bearers that fewer children
= economic betterment of their family.
Thank You