Transcript Direct effects of climate change on plants in Hungary Eszter Erdei, J.

Direct effects of climate
change on plants in Hungary
Eszter Erdei, J. Bobvos**, T. Hardy*, E. Jozsa*,
A. Paldy*
* Natl. Institute of Environmental Health, Natl.
Centre for Public Health, Budapest, Hungary
**Metropolitan Institute of State Public Health
Service, Budapest
Aim of the study
To assess the impact of climate variability
on the production of pollen grains and
mould spores in Budapest, Hungary
• To examine changes in aeroallergen
abundance related to climatic conditions
• To give descriptions of the
characteristics of pollen and spore
seasons during longer time period
The yearly Taverage in the last
100 years of Hungary (°C)
Methods
• Pollen and spore database: 32 different
allergenic pollen grains and 2 mould
spores and other spores are recorded
continuously with standardized method
(Burkard 7-day volumetric trap) on
daily basis by Hungarian Aerobiological
Network
2 traps in Budapest (average pg/m3
was used), N=4018 observations!
• Weather database: collected by online
air pollution monitoring stations of the
Metropolitan Institute of State Public
Health Service, Budapest
Consolidated daily aeroallergen counts into 3 groups:
•spring trees (Alnus, Corylus, Betula, Fraxinus, Populus,
Carpinus etc.)
•grasses and summer-autumn weeds (Poaceae,
Ambrosia, Artemisia, Chenopodiacea, ect.)
•mold spores (Alternaria, Cladosporium, other spores,
sum)
Meteorological factors:
•temperature (daily min, max, range, 24-hour average)
•humidity (RH %)
•sunshine intensity (kW/hour)
•barometric pressure (hPa)
•windspeed (km/hour)
• Agrometeorological parameter: total
heatsums („growing degree days”) were
used including negative T values
calculated from 1st January of every
study year till the date of the 1% of the
total yearly catch of the certain allergen
species;
-relative percentages of the yearly
sums (separately for the studied years)
were compared to the starting dates of
the pollen seasons (retrospective
method, 1% of the total yearly catch)
for 8 allergenic pollen produced plant
species and the total mould spores
Variations of aeroallergen
concentrations in Budapest
1992-2002
4000
300
3000
200
2000
100
1000
PGRASS
0
ALT
1992
1994
1993
YY
1996
1995
1998
1997
2000
1999
2002
Mean
Mea n
PTREE
CLA
0
EGY
1992
1994
1993
2001
YY
1996
1995
1998
1997
2000
1999
2002
2001
Linear trends of aeroallergen
concentrations during
the 11-years-long study period
ß
PTREE**
13,84
CI min
CI max
11,86
15,82
PGRASS** 11,28
9,81
12,75
ALT
-1,24
-2,13
-0,346
CLADO
12,30
-1,95
26,55
OS**
257,44
212,94
301,94
Average pollen concentrations
by years and trends in
Budapest
Spring blooming trees
(birch, ash)
Grasses and ragweed
9000
3500
8000
3000
7000
2500
6000
2000
birch
5000
1500
ash
4000
ragweed
grasses
3000
1000
2000
500
1000
0
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 2001 2002
0
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
2000 2001 2002
Variability of T24 and starting
dates of birch pollen seasons
22
3
92
20
93
2
94
18
95
96
16
1
97
98
14
99
366
364
366
365
366
365
358
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
YY
4.
14.
365
4.
7.
365
3.
31.
365
3.
24.
366
20
3.
17.
N=
3.
10.
0
12
21
Variability of Tmin and starting
dates of ragweed pollen
seasons
3
11
92
10
93
94
2
9
95
8
96
97
1
7
98
99
6
20
YY
8.17
8.15
8.13
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
8.11
358
8.9
365
8.7
366
8.5
365
8.3
366
8.1
364
7.30
366
7.28
365
7.26
365
7.24
365
7.22
366
7.20
N=
7.18
0
5
21
Percentages of total heatsum values
(±SD) at the starting dates of
pollination seasons of 8 allergenic
plant species and mould
80
60
40
20
20 , 00
0
-2 0
N =
10
10
PO P
FR AX
10
CARP
10
10
10
10
BET
PLAT
Q UER
PO A
10
AMB
10
FUNG
Variabilities of heatsum values related
to birch pollination period’s starting
dates in Budapest
12,00
92
93
10,00
94
95
8,00
96
97
6,00
98
99
20
.04.22
.04.18
.04.14
.04.10
.04.06
.04.02
.03.29
.03.25
.03.21
.03.17
.03.13
.03.09
.03.05
.03.01
.02.26
4,00
21
Variabilities of heatsum values related
to ragweed pollination period’s
starting dates
66,00
92
93
94
61,00
95
96
97
98
99
.0
7.
22
.0
7.
24
.0
7.
26
.0
7.
28
.0
7.
30
.0
8.
01
.0
8.
03
.0
8.
05
.0
8.
07
.0
8.
09
.0
8.
11
56,00
20
21
Number of patients
Morbidity data of rhinitis
allergica patients in Hungary
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
1990
1994
1995
1996
Forrás: Országos Korányi TBC és Pulmonológiai Intézet
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
20
01
20
00
19
99
19
98
19
97
Forrás: Országos Korányi TBC és Pulmonológiai Intézet
19
96
19
95
19
94
19
93
19
92
19
91
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
19
90
Number of patients
Number of hospitalized
asthmatic patients in Hungary
Conclusions
• Increased production of aeroallergens
during study period in Budapest - direct
health impact of climate variability.
• Starts of pollen seasons varied
remarkably; associations with T24 and
Tmin.
• The abundance of the most allergenic
pollen types is enhanced moderately
during the study period.
• Prediction can be made using relative
heatsum values for starting dates of
pollen seasons and fungi spore
production.
Acknowledgement
Special thank goes to:
• Tamás Bodorics for agrometeorological
advices
• This work was supported by the
Hungarian National Environmental
Health Action Programme (NEHAP)