Transcript Primavera PERT Master – The Risk Analysis Tool Presentation Agenda • What is PERT Master ? • Project Risk Management Concepts • Introductory Demonstrations – Importing from.

Primavera PERT Master
–
The Risk Analysis Tool
Presentation Agenda
• What is PERT Master ?
• Project Risk Management Concepts
• Introductory Demonstrations
– Importing from Primavera
– Quick Risk Templates
– Running a Risk Analysis
– Risk Register with schedule
• Advanced Risk Management
– Schedule cost loading techniques
– Probabilistic cash flow and profitability breakeven
10/30/2015
What is PERT Master ?
“Minimize
Uncertainty”
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Budget /
Schedule
Estimate
Total Project Cost
• PERT Master Focus
Maximize Profit
– Specialist in Project Risk Management
– Full Lifecycle risk solution
“Strategic Management
Reserve
Decisions”
– Faithful to project scheduling
Mitigation
“Maximize
• PERT Master Vision
Cost/Effort
Return”
– “Improved decision making
“Proper
Contingency
Allocation”
through project intelligence”
Life Value Proposition
PHASE 1
PHASE 2
PHASE 3
PHASE 4
PHASE 5
Opportunity
FEED Front End
Execution
Operations
(e.g. oil field)
Alternative
selection (rig
A/B/C, own)
Engineering
Design
Detailed Eng. &
Procurement
Detailed Eng. &
Procurement
Wild Guess
(WAG)
-15% to +30%
Estimate
+/-10%
Estimate
+/- 3% Estimate
No Estimate
Uncertainty
•High estimate uncertainty
•Little Known about risk events
Capital
Schedule based
Market/Invest
Investment risk
cost risk
ment risk
analysis
analysis
analysis
“DOING RIGHT PROJECTS”
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S
A
N
C
T
I
O
N
•Estimate uncertainty – Low
•Discrete risk events
Risk event /
register
analysis
Risk event
monitoring
“DOING PROJECTS RIGHT”
PLAN YOUR WORK
WORK YOUR PLAN
Life Value Proposition
CORPORATE
REVENUE ANALYSIS
PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS
PROJECT ANALYSIS
PHASE 1
PHASE 2
PHASE 3
PHASE 4
PHASE 5
Opportunity
Alternative
selection (rig
FEED Front End
Execution
Operations
Detailed Eng. &
Procurement
Detailed Eng. &
Procurement
+/- 3% Estimate
No Estimate
Uncertainty
(e.g. oil field)
WAG
A/B/C, own)
Engineering
Design
-15% to +30%
Estimate
+/-10%
Estimate
•High estimate uncertainty
•Little Known about risk events
Capital
Schedule based
Market/Invest
Investment risk
cost risk
ment risk
analysis
analysis
analysis
“DOING RIGHT PROJECTS”
S
A
N
C
T
I
O
N
•Estimate uncertainty – Low
•Discrete risk events
Risk event /
register
analysis
“DOING PROJECTS RIGHT”
PLAN YOUR WORK
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Risk event
monitoring
WORK YOUR PLAN
Risk Vs Schedule
• Realistic /Most Likely
• Aggressive / Optimistic
• Cautious / Pessimistic
• Scale to Fit
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Types of Risks
• Uncertainty
– PERT Master handles uncertainty by using three point
estimate distributions minimum, most likely and maximum
• Risk Events
– PERT Master handles risk events by using risk register to
enter possible events along with estimates of each one’s
probability and potential impacts on duration, cost and
project quality
Uncertainty + Risk Events = Total Risk Exposure
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Types of Risk - Uncertainty
E.g. How long does it take to do wiring?
Duration/
Cost
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Types of Risk
Activity A
Activity B
?
E.g. Do we need to replace old wiring?
Activity C
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Branching – Probabilistic & Conditional
Scenario: Renovate the Premises
– Remove wiring (50% probability)
– Repair wiring (40% probability)
– Install new wiring (10% probability)
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Template Quick Risk
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Types Of Risks - Risk Events
• Single Impact
• Series of Impact
• Multiple exclusive impacts
• Multiple impacts to multiple activities
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Risk Register
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Risk Register
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Monte Carlo Simulation
• Range forms an envelope
• One segment is selected for each envelope
• Hidden critical paths revealed
7 8
Min
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9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Likely
Max
Monte Carlo Simulation
• Range forms an envelope
• One segment is selected for each envelope
• Hidden critical paths revealed
ITERATION
1
2
10 DAYS
9 DAYS
14 DAYS
3
17 DAYS
4
11 DAYS
5
6 7 DAYS
7
10 DAYS
8
12 DAYS
9 6 DAYS
…
7 8
Min
10/30/2015
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Likely
Max
PERT Master Risk Analysis Methodology
• Risk Ready State
– Schedule : Sound logic
– Scheduling errors
• Risk Inputs
– Estimate Uncertainty: “Quick
Risk”
– Risk Events: risk register
• Risk Impacts
– Map risks to tasks
• Risk Analysis
– Monte Carlo Simulation
– Risk hot spots
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Risk Planning
Risk
Reporting
Risk
Response
Risk
Identification
Risk
Assessment
PERT Master Risk Analysis Methodology
• Risk Response
– Determination of Contingency
– Mitigation Scenarios
– Probabilistic cashflow
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Plan Validation: Schedule Check
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Initial Risk Inputs – Quick Risk Analysis
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Accuracy with Ease
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Risk Outputs
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