Transcript Using the NWC SAF products over South Africa and southern Africa to enhance nowcasting capabilities in data sparse regions E de Coning, Morne Gijben, Louis.

Using the NWC SAF products
over South Africa and
southern Africa to enhance
nowcasting capabilities in data
sparse regions
E de Coning, Morne Gijben, Louis van Hemert,
Bathobile Maseko
South African Weather Service
Content
• Background
• CRR examples for SA and SADC
• CRR vs Hydroestimator vs rain gauge data for Oct-Dec
2014
• RDT examples for SA and SADC
• RDT validated against lightning data for Dec ’14 and Jan
‘15
• Conclusions and future work
Background
• Nowcasting is needed to warn the public of severe
weather events
• Data sparse regions – very few lightning/radar networks
• Satellite and NWP blended products (WMO SWFDP)
• In SA: using local version of UKMO Unified Model (12km)
• NWCSAF v2012 tested with case studies over SA/SADC
• NWCSAF v2013 installed operationally in SA during 2014
• Southern African domain since Oct 2014.
• CRR and RDT, no other products yet
CRR example: Daily rainfall CRR vs Hydroe
vs raingauges for 23 Feb 2010 (using v2012)
Rain gauges
Hydroestimator
Using 1 MSG channel
CRR using 3 MSG channels
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CRR example: Daily rainfall CRR and Hydroe vs
TRMM for 2 Jan 2014 (using v2012)
Hydroestimator
Using 1 MSG channel
CRR using 3 MSG channels
CRR validation against daily rainfall totals
over South Africa (using v2013)
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International Preciptiation Working Group (IPWG)
Different rainfall algorithms (NWP and satellite)
0.25° resolution
Daily rain gauges (24 hour) totals
Hydroestimator (1 MSG channel) and CRR (3 MSG
channels) added to this suite of products
RMSE and Correlation Coefficient (v2013)
Heidke Skill Score Oct-Dec 2014 HE vs CRR
0.3
0.25
0.2
HE
0.15
CRR
0.1
0.05
0
Oct
Nov
Dec
CRR validation thus far…
• Encouraging
• Better than Hydroestimator in Oct-Dec 2014
• Will continue monitoring…
RDT example 9 Nov 2012 (v2012)
1130 UTC
1130 UTC
RDT example 28 Dec 2013 at 1200 UTC
Zimbabwe (v2012)
RDT example 20 September 2014 – Afternoon
thunderstorms and hail in JhB (v2013)
Operational! v2013
RDT validation against lightning data over
South Africa (v2012)
– No lighting data input
– Bufr to hdf5
– Growing and mature phases used for validation
– Validated against SALDN – CG lightning only. 10 min before
and after each RDT time step
– Object-oriented methodology (R, SpativalVx)
9 Oct 2012 v2012
Graphs supplied by Morne Gijben
R statistical software used with SpatialVx
package for O-O validation developed at NCAR
RDT validation against lightning data over
South Africa (v2013)
– No lighting data input
– No OT detection input
– Bufr3 output since Dec 2013
– Growing, mature and decaying phases used for validation
– Validated against SALDN – CG lightning only. 10 min before
and after each RDT time step
– Between 1100 and 1800 UTC (13:00 and 20:00 SA local time)
– Object-oriented methodology (R, SpativalVx)
23 Dec 2014 v2013
Validation for Dec 2014 and Jan 2015
(v2013)
Conclusions and Future work
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Encouraging results especially for data sparse regions!
Submission to national journal accepted for publication
Add lightning (and OT?) as input data (this year)
Validate against radar (where available) over SA
New HPC, latest upgrades of UM (this year) – 4km, 1.5km
Funded research project 2015-2017
NWCSAF V2015? 