Transcript Voter Turnout POLS 21: The American Political System “A citizen of America will cross the ocean to fight for democracy, but won't cross.

Voter Turnout
POLS 21: The American Political System
“A citizen of America will cross the ocean to fight for
democracy, but won't cross the street to vote in a
national election.”
— Bill Vaughan
Voter Turnout in 2012
In November 2012, 130 million votes were cast for
president.
Is that number high or low?
It depends on how
turnout is measured…
How Should We Measure Turnout?
Turnout statistics can use any of three denominators:
The voting-age population (VAP) includes non-citizens
and felons who are ineligible to vote, and excludes
expatriate citizens who could legally vote overseas. VAP
estimates provide the lowest turnout levels because they
underestimate actual turnout.
The voting-eligible population (VEP) starts with the
voting-age population, then subtracts disenfranchised
felons and non-citizens, and adds citizens from
overseas. VEP estimates of voting turnout are higher
than VAP estimates.
The number of registered voters includes only those
legally registered to vote. This provides the highest rate
of voter turnout.
How Should We Measure Turnout?
VAP
130 million votes cast
= 54% voter turnout
241 million voting age citizens
VEP
REG
130 million votes cast
= 59% voter turnout
222 million voting eligible citizens
130 million votes cast
172 million registered voters
= 76% voter turnout
If voter turnout is low,
compared to what?
Compared to other countries
Compared to historic rates of voter
turnout in the United States
Voter Turnout in the United States
Compared to Other Countries
P e rc e n t o f v o t i n g a g e p o p u l a t i o n (V A P ), a l l e l e c t i o n s s i n c e 1 9 4 5
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
Source: International IDEA, http://www.idea.int/vt/survey/
USA
Swi tzerl and
Luxembourg
F rance
Uni ted Ki ngdom
Irel and
Spai n
F i nl and
Norway
Israel
* Greece
Germany
Portugal
Sweden
Denmark
* Austral i a
Netherl ands
* Bel gi um
Austri a
Icel and
0
* Ital y
10
1828
1832
1836
1840
1844
1848
1852
1856
1860
1864
1868
1872
1876
1880
1884
1888
1892
1896
1900
1904
1908
1912
1916
1920
1924
1928
1932
1936
1940
1944
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
Voter Turnout in Presidential
Elections, 1828-2012
Per c ent of v oting eligible population ( VEP)
100
80
60
40
20
0
Voter Turnout in Presidential
Elections, 1828-2012
Per c ent of v oting eligible population ( VEP)
The 26th
Amendment
grants 18-20
year olds the
right to vote
80
70
60
The 19th
Amendment
grants women
the right to vote
1828
1832
1836
1840
1844
1848
1852
1856
1860
1864
1868
1872
1876
1880
1884
1888
1892
1896
1900
1904
1908
1912
1916
1920
1924
1928
1932
1936
1940
1944
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
50
Voter Turnout in Presidential
Elections, 1828-2012
Per c ent of v oting eligible population ( VEP)
65
60
55
50
45
40
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
Does Low Voter Turnout Matter?
Should we prefer a:
Smaller, more highly educated, less
representative electorate?
Larger, less well educated, more
representative electorate?
Making It Too Easy to Vote?
Jeff Jacoby, a staff writer for the Boston Globe, wrote the following essay in July, 1996—
Universal suffrage? I’m for that. Voting is right, not a privilege? Absolutely. No unreasonable
barriers to voter registration? I agree. Government workers should go out of their way to sign
up welfare recipients to vote?
Hold it.
Welfare recipients are people who don’t work, don’t pay taxes and don’t support themselves. Of
course there are exceptions, but as a group—let’s face it—they are among the least educated,
least productive, least responsible adults in America. They’re also among the least likely to be
interested in elections or to follow public debates. If in addition they don’t bother to vote, we
ought to be grateful. Why would anyone want to coax them into registering?
…No one is disenfranchised in this country. Unlike the days of old, there are no poll taxes,
literacy tests, gender barriers or property requirements to come between any citizen and the
voting booth. If U.S. elections are marked by chronically low turnout, it is not because voters
are kept away. They stay away. Some are apathetic, some are ignorant, some are simply selfcentered. Why badger people to register? What would they bring to an election?… No welfare
caseworker—no state employee, period—should have to spoonfeed voting rights to anyone,
least of all people on the dole. If they can figure out how to get food stamps, they can figure out
how to get registered. They choose not to? So be it. American democracy won’t suffer.
Increasing Voter Turnout
OPTION #1: Do nothing. Once we use the appropriate
measure (e.g., VEP), there is no problem.
OPTION #2: Do nothing. Turnout may be low, but we
don’t want uneducated, uninformed people voting
anyway.
OPTION #3: Do nothing. Voter and non-voters have
similar policy preferences, so it makes little difference
OPTION #4: Do something!
Voting by mail
Voting early
Internet voting
Election day registration
How Does Motor-Voter Work?
Widely known as Motor-Voter, the National Voter Registration Act of 1993
is designed to encourage voter registration and to remove discriminatory
and unfair obstacles to voter registration.
As of January 1, 1995, the law requires states to register voters for federal
elections in three specific ways, in addition to any other procedures they
use currently for registering voters:
1. Simultaneous application for driver’s license and voter registration
2. Mail application for voter registration
3. Application in person at certain government agencies, including public
assistance offices and agencies that provided services to people with
disabilities
The Problem with Motor-Voter
Voter
Registration
Voter
Turnout
Motivation
and/or interest
in politics
Voter Turnout as a Political
Strategy
With narrow
margins of
victory, and an
electorate split
evenly down
the middle,
political parties
increasingly
battle over
voter turnout.
Close Elections Mean Turnout Matters
In 2000, George W. Bush won the state of
Florida by just 537 votes (0.01%)
In Oregon, the presidential election that
year was decided by 6,745 votes (0.44%)
In Iowa, by 4,144 votes (0.31%)
In Wisconsin, by 5,708 votes (0.22%)
In New Mexico, by 366 votes (0.06%)
Close Elections Mean Turnout Matters
In 2004, George W. Bush won Wisconsin
by 11,384 votes (0.38%)
In New Hampshire, by 9,274 votes
(1.37%)
In New Mexico, by 5,988 votes (0.79%)
In Iowa, by 10,059 votes (0.67%)
Tight states in 2008: North Carolina,
Indiana, Florida, Ohio
Vote Mobilization
Efforts to increase voter turnout are often called “Get-Out-the-Vote”
drives, or GOTV.
Vote Suppression
Ballot and machine shortages on
Election Day in selected precincts.
Delays in sending absentee ballots.
Vote challenges.
Disqualification of provisional
ballots.
Purges of voter registration lists
(e.g., voter caging).
Misdirection of voters to polling
places.
Negative advertising designed to
undermine morale.