Transcript Pest Risk Analysis (PRA)

Pest Risk Analysis (PRA)
Md. Ahsan Ullah
Consultant-PRA
SPCB- Project, DAE
Pest Risk Analysis (PRA)
PRA is a process of evaluating biological or
other scientific and economic evidence to
determine whether an organism is a pest,
whether it should be regulated, and the
strength of phytosanitary measures to be taken
against it. [FAO, 1995]
 Subsequently an evaluation of the potential of
introduction of the pest into the country is
done
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Continued to next page
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PRA is
Key to adhering to IPPC principles is application of
pest risk analysis as a decision-making process
Impacts on all aspects of phytosanitary programs:
import, domestic programs, exports
Guidance provided in ISPMs
The IPPC
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Multilateral treaty for international cooperation
in plant protection
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Currently181 countries
From Albania to Zambia
A standard setting organization
Aim of the IPPC
• Prevent introduction
& spread of pests
• Promote fair & safe
trade
• Protect plant life
World Trade Organization (WTO)
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Responsible for establishing rules of trade
between nations
IPPC is the recognized international standard
setting body for plant health under the WTOSPS
International Standards for
Phytosanitary Measures (ISPMs)
ISPMs:
• provide guidance to member countries in
implementing national programs and fulfilling
requirements of the IPPC
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may be very general (e.g., Glossary, Principles
etc.), or highly specific (e.g., Pest Risk Analysis,
Pest status, Solid wood packaging etc.)
Responsibility of NPPO
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issuance of phytosanitary certificates,
surveillance and inspection,
controlling pests (for example, administering treatments,
preventing spread, disinfection or disinfestation),
protecting endangered areas,
conducting pest risk analyses,
ensuring phytosanitary security of consignments from
certification until export ,and
designation, maintenance and surveillance of pest free
areas and areas of low pest prevalence.
PRA-specific ISPMs
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ISPM No. 2
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approval by CPM in March 2007
ISPM No. 11
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Framework for pest risk analysis, revision for
Pest risk analysis for quarantine pests including
analysis of environmental risks and living
modified organisms, 2004
ISPM No. 21
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Pest risk analysis for regulated non-quarantine
pests
Risk: one definition
The probability of an adverse
event and the magnitude of the
consequences…
Risk
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Risk = Likelihood X Impact
– Likelihood
– Potential
– Probability
– Economic or economic
impacts
– Consequences
– Quantitative or qualitative
– Relative possibility of the
event
What is a Pest?
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A pest is “…any species,
strain or biotype of plant,
animal or pathogenic agent,
injurious to plants or plant
products”
• an insect, fungus, bacterium,
virus, nematode, invasive
plant
• any type of living organism
that is harmful to plants
Quarantine Pest
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A pest of potential economic importance to
the area endangered thereby and not yet
present there, or present but not widely
distributed and being officially controlled
[ISPM No. 5, 2006]
Pest Risk Assessment
Evaluation of the probability of the introduction
and spread of a pest and the magnitude of the
associated potential economic consequences
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[FAO, 1995; revised ISPM 11:2001; ISPM 2:2007
Why do we do PRA?
To evaluate and manage risk from specific
pests and internationally traded commodities
 Identify and assess risks to agricultural and
horticultural crops, forestry and the
environment from plant pests
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Why do we do PRA?
Provide guidance/justification when
a decision needs to be made
 Risks related to trade
•Import or export of organism(s) or product(s)
 Risks related to domestic issues
• Management programs beginning, ending or
changing direction
 Evaluation of different control strategies
Why do we do PRA?
•Risks related to introduction or spread
 Change in regulations (Policy)
• Change in recommendations (Phytosanitary measure)
• Emerging issues
-Pest interception/introduction into importing
country
•New pest entry into Exporting country
 Resource allocations
Why do we do PRA?
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To create lists of regulated pests
To produce lists of prohibited plants and plant
products
To assist in identifying appropriate
management options
Pest Risk Analysis (PRA) Stages
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Stage 1: Initiation
Stage 2: Pest Risk Assessment
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Step
Step
Step
Step
Step
1:
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Pest Categorization
Assessment of the Probability of Introduction
Impacts
Overall Assessment of Risk
Uncertainty
Stage 3: Pest Risk Management
Initiation Points or Types of PRA
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Pathway
Pest
Policy
Initiation Points
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Pathway
Pest
Policy
Pathway
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Any means that allow the
entry or spread of a pest;
could be
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An imported commodity
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a means of transportation or
storage
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packaging, or other articles
associated with the commodity
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a natural means of spread (e.g.,
wind)
• A commodity is a
plant or plant product
being moved for trade
or other purposes
Pathway
Pathway
CFIA-ACIA
Pathway
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Any means that allow the
entry or spread of a pest;
could be
an imported commodity
a means of transportation or
storage
packaging or other articles
associated with the commodity
a natural means of spread
(e.g., wind)
Initiation Points
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Pathway
Pest
Policy
PEST
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A pest has been
intercepted on an
imported commodity
A new pest has been
reported in an exporting
country
New hosts are discovered
for a pest of concern
A pest is reported to be
more injurious than
previously realized
PEST
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A new pest is discovered in
the NPPO
A request is made to
import an organism for
industrial, research, bio
control, or other purposes
An organism is discovered
to be a vector for other
pests
PEST
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A request is made to
import a new plant
species or variety planting
A proposal is made to
import or release a living
modified organism
An organism is reported
that is new to science or
for which there is little
information available
Initiation Points
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Pathway
Pest
Policy
POLICY
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an NPPO decides to review an existing policy,
phytosanitary regulation, requirements or operations
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changes in agricultural production in the NPPO mean that an
existing policy is no longer appropriate
an eradication program is underway and the NPPO wishes to
review its progress & adjust the program, if necessary
there are repeated interceptions of regulated pests on an
imported commodity for which an import policy is in place
phytosanitary regulations and import policies may be
updated, as needed, for many reasons
Policy
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an exporting country proposes a different approach to
addressing pest risk
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a dispute arises over a phytosanitary policy
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exporting NPPO suggests a certification program for growers in
lieu of a treatment requirement, for example
an exporting country does not agree with the importing country
that a required phytosanitary measure is necessary
a treatment becomes available, or conversely, is no
longer available
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reduction in use of methyl bromide, for example, may
necessitate review of import policies for many plants & plant
products
Effect of Pest Introduction
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Direct effects
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Longevity, viability of host plants
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Yield, quality
Indirect effects
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Market effects, environmental effects and social
effects
Economic Impact Matrix
Market Impacts
Non-Market
Impacts
Direct Pest Effects •Commercial crops
•Urban ornamental
•Wildlife habitat
Indirect Pest
Effects
•Nutrient cycle
•Hydrology
•Timber products
•Control costs
•Trade
•Tourism
Analysis of commercial consequences
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Important to consider effect of pest-induced
changes on:
Producer profits resulting from changes in production costs,
yields and prices
Crop losses or crop failure resulting in loss of customers
Quantities demanded or prices paid for commodities by
domestic and international customers
Environmental impacts
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Direct environmental effects
 Loss
of keystone species
 Loss
of threatened/endangered species
 Decrease
in range/viability of keystone species
 Decrease
in range/viability of threatened/endangered
species
Environmental impacts
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Indirect environmental effects
 Changes
 Loss
in habitat composition
of habitat or nourishment for wildlife
 Changes
in soil structure or water table
 Changes
in ecosystem processes
 Impacts
of risk management options
Environmental impact: tree death
CFIA-ACIA
Social consequences
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Social effects
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Loss of employment
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Migration
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Reduction in property values
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Loss of tourism
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Reduction or loss of availability of traditional plants for
cultural purposes
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Human health risks
Challenges
INFORMATION
 Resources
 Biological
data
 Financial &
Economic data
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Tools
 Biological
models
 Financial &
Economic models
TECHNIQUES
• Economists & biologists
working together
• Assessing impacts with little
information
• Quantifying environmental
impacts
• Scaling up from local to
national impacts
• Modelling changes in
impacts over time
Thank you for your patience hearing