Transcript Durrwachter - American Meteorological Society

Texas Wind Energy
American Meteorological Society
Summer Community Meeting – Norman Oklahoma
Henry Durrwachter, P.E.
August 12, 2009
Installed Wind Capacity
2
Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT)
 The only intra-state electric
grid in the U.S.
 3 Direct Current (DC) ties to
the Eastern Interconnect (2)
or Mexico (1)
 Serves about 20 million
customers (85% of Texas
load) over 200,000 sq. miles
of territory (75%)
 38,000 miles of high voltage
transmission lines (345 kV,
138 kv and 69 kV)
 Non-profit organization
regulated by the Public Utility
Commission of Texas (PUCT)
Graphic courtesy of ERCOT
3
ERCOT Reserve Margin and Energy Mix 2008
 169 generating plants
(72,500 MW of capacity at
peak)
Oth
1.6%
Nuclear
13.2%
 2008 Peak demand =
62,174 MW
 16.6% Reserve Margin*
Wnd
4.9%
Coal
37.1%
Hydro
0.2%
(12.5% minimum)
 580+ thermal generation
units
 Over 8,000 MW of wind
generation
Gas
43.0%
Generation Fuel Mix for 2008 Energy (Total for Year)
*Estimated
309 Million MWh
4
Installed Wind Generation in Texas
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
Name
Barton Chapel Wind
Buffalo Gap Wind Farm
Bull Creek Wind Plant
Callahan Wind
Camp Springs
Capricorn Ridge Wind
Champion Wind Farm
Delaware Mountain Wind Farm
Desert Sky Wind Farm
Elbow Creek Wind Project
Forest Creek Wind Farm
Goat Wind
Green Mtn Energy
Gulf Wind 1
Hackberry Wind Farm
Horse Hollow Wind Farm
Inadale
Indian Mesa Wind Farm
King Mountain Wind Farm
Kunitz Wind
Mcadoo Wind Farm
Mesquite Wind
No Trees
Ocotillo Wind Farm
Panther Creek 1
Pecos Wind (Woodward 1)
Penascal Wind Farm
Post Oak Wind 1
Pyron Wind Farm
Red Canyon
Roscoe Wind Farm
Sand Bluff Wind Farm
Sherbino
Silver Star
Snyder Wind Farm
South Trent Wind Farm
Stanton Wind Energy
Sweetwater Wind
Texas Big Spring
Trent Wind Farm
TSTC West Texas Wind
Turkey Track Energy Center
West Texas Wind Energy
Whirlwind Energy
Wolfe Flats
Wolfe Ridge
Total ERCOT Wind
47
48
49
50
51
Aeolius Wind
Hueco Mountain Wind Ranch
John Deere
Llano Estacado Wind Ranch
Wildorado
Non-ERCOT Wind
Total Texas Wind
Capacity
(MW)
120
503
180
114
250
641
120
30
160
117
124
80
160
283
165
725
197
80
283
35
150
200
93
59
258
160
202
200
249
84
200
90
150
60
63
98
120
587
40
150
2
170
70
60
10
113
8,005
3
1
40
80
161
285
Grid
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
ERCOT
8,290 MW Installed as
of 12-31-2008
31
33
In ERCOT
Outside ERCOT
SPP
SPP
SPP
SPP
SPP
8,290
5
Monthly Energy Production – West Texas Wind Farm
12%
% of Total Energy Production
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
6
ERCOT Summer Peak Month Coincidence (Hourly Average) - 2008
100%
90.00%
90%
80.00%
80%
70.00%
70%
60.00%
60%
Peak Load Hour
50.00%
50%
40.00%
40%
30.00%
30%
11.7%
20.00%
10.00%
Wind Output (MW)
Load (MW)
100.00%
20%
10%
0.00%
0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Hours
7
Hourly Variability of Wind
1,600
January 5, 2007 – Total Installed Wind Capacity = 2,790 MW
1,400
High ramp rates
1,200
MW
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Hour
8
Scenario 2 - 18,456 MW of Wind - $4.93 Billion
Miles of New ROW:
345 kV = 2,334
138 kV = 42
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Questions
Q: What is the proper role for government, industry and academia?
 Government – provide access to appropriate weather data
 Industry – willingness to utilize the latest tools and techniques to better
forecast wind energy production
 Academia – research better ways to forecast wind energy production
Q: What are the primary knowledge gaps?
 Correct modeling and forecasting of low-level jets and their impact on
wind generation production (according to our staff meteorologist)
Q: How can all parties leverage their expertise to move the nation forward to
improve the adoption of renewables?
 Learn from others’ experiences
 Recognize the shortcomings of renewable technologies (variable fuel
supply, non-dispatchability) and
 create innovative methods, procedures or incentives to address those
shortcomings through new or existing generating technologies or
control systems.
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