Transcript Project Plan - Eastern Africa

AgMIP-Eastern Africa
Overview
Eastern Africa Team
Background
• Eastern Africa is one of the
regions in Africa where
production is lagging
behind population growth
• High dependence on
rainfed agriculture and high
variability in rainfall are the
main reasons for the
variability in food
production in the region
• Climate change is expected
to further exacerbate the
situation
Data source: FAO
Cereal yields in Eastern Africa
• Except for Ethiopia,
Madagascar and Rwanda,
cereal yields remained the
same or declined during the
past decade
Data source: FAO
Maize yields in Kenya
2000
2050
Dry areas – Eastern Africa
• More than a third of the region is
semi-arid or dry sub-humid which
are marginal environments for crop
production
• This area is expected to grow with
the projected changes in climate by
about 1.71 m km2 by 2050
• Major changes are expected in
Tanzania, DR Congo and Madagascar
High uncertainty
Expected change in Rainfall (%)
Predic
tion
2046-2065
2081-2100
Katu
mani
Mwin Muto Katu
gi
mo
mani
Kitui
Min
23.9
-10.7
-4.4
-4.5
30.9
-11.5
-4.8
9.3
Med
41.0
17.0
-0.1
9.1
70.9
24.2
15.5
13.6
Max
57.6
58.2
22.8
58.2
96.9
58.8
33.9
58.1
Kitui
A2 SRES , summary of 11 GCM outputs
Mwin Muto
gi
mo
AgMIP-Eastern Africa
• Assessing the impacts of climate variability and change on
agricultural systems in Eastern Africa while enhancing the
region’s capacity to undertake integrated assessment of
vulnerabilities to future changes in climate
• Participating countries:
o
o
o
o
Kenya
Tanzania
Uganda
Ethiopia
Project Partners
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International Crops Research Institute for Semi Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)
Makerere University (MAK)
National Agricultural Research Organization (NARO)
Uganda Department of Meteorology (UDM)
Kenya Agricultural Research Institute(KARI)
Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD)
University of Nairobi (UoN)
Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA)
Tanzania Meteorlogical Agency (TMA)
Institute of Rural Development and Planning (IRDP)
Mekelle University (MkU)
Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR)
National Meteorological Agency (NMA)
Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)
Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research nIn Eastern and
Central Africa (ASARECA)
Project- Aims
• Conduct a systematic, comprehensive, and quantitative
assessment of impacts of climate variability and change on
agricultural systems and their implications on income and
food security
• Assess the impacts at scales ranging from farm, local, agroecological and regional
• Identify adaptation options with due consideration to the
interactions between the key variables of climate, crop and
socio-economics
• Establish multi-disciplinary teams and enhance their
capacity with skills and capabilities in validating and using
climate, crop and economic models
Outputs
• Databases and well tested tools and methodologies to assess
biophysical and socio-economic implications of the effects of
climate variability and change
• A core team of climate, crop and economic modellers, with
improved skills in the use of advanced models and sophisticated
frameworks for integrated assessment of climate change impacts
• New knowledge and information about impacts of climate
variability and change on key agricultural systems and their
biophysical and socio-economic implications at multiple scales
• Increased sharing of relevant and timely knowledge and
information about the impacts of climate variability on
agricultural production and food security
Methodology
• Four country teams work independently and a team
environment
• Uses agro-ecologies as base unit with additional subdivisions
– Humid, sub-humid and semi-arid
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Focus on crops that are relevant to smallholder farmers
Assemble data required for climate-crop-economic models
Calibration, validation and testing of models
Develop economic scenarios
– Scenario 1: Climate change but no adaptation
– Scenario 2: Climate change with adaptation
– Scenario 3: Baseline scenario
• Conduct simulations and assess impacts under current and
future climatic conditions
• Extrapolate the results to target agro-ecology
Target crops and locations
Crop
Maize
Beans
Sugar
cane
Sorghum
Uganda
Mt Elgon (H)
Hoima (SH)
Mbarara (SA)
Kenya
Kitale (H)
Nakuru (SH)
Machakos (SA)
Tanzania
Uyole (H)
Morogoro (SH)
Arusha (SA)
Mt Elgon (H)
Hoima (SH)
Mbarara (SA)
Jinja-Kakira (SH)
Kitale (H)
Nakuru (SH)
Machakos (SA)
S. Nyanza (H)
Nyando (SH)
Busia (H)
Kitui (SA)
Uyole (H)
C. Rift valleyMorogoro (SH) Nazret&Awasa (SA)
Arusha(SA)
Wheat
H=Humid, SH=Sub-humid, SA=Semi-arid
Ethiopia
Ambo (H)
Bako (SH)
Adgudon plains (SA)
Hombolo and
Dodoma (SA)
Hagere Selam (H)
Eteya Gonde (SH)
Adgudon (SA)
Distribution of sites
Models to be used
Area
Model/tool
Climate Instat
modeling MarkSim-GCM
Tamet
Tav_amp
Crop
models
Purpose
Variability and trend analysis
Future climate scenarios development
Quality checks on climate data
Calculating (TAV) and (AMP) required for crop
models
Weather translator Convert DSSAT climate files into APSIM format
Assessing climate impacts on crops and
DSSAT
APSIM
evaluating adaptation options
Aquacrop
R Script
Economic ToA-MD
modeling DREAM
IMPACT
IT
Web tools
Database
GIS
Data analysis and graphical representation
Impact assessment of technologies
Economic impacts of agriculture
Examine alternative futures for global food
supply
Develop web pages, blogs
Archiving and retrieving data
Presenting results
Analytical Framework
• Year 1: Collecting necessary data, calibrating and validating
identified models for a range of conditions, conducting
uncertainty analyses to address issues of model
uncertainties and demonstrate a range of expected
outcomes
• Year 2: Large scale assessment of biophysical and economic
impacts of climate change for a number of climate change
scenarios using predictions based on different GCMs
Key aspects of the project
• More holistic assessment of climate change impacts by
integrating best of climate-crop-economic aspects of
agricultural systems
• Building on available data and information
• Better understanding of model uncertainties and enhancing
their skill
• A platform to interact and work closely with global experts
and share experiences nationally, regionally and globally
• Developing a strong regional working group with skills in
climate, crop and economic modelling
Progress to date
• Inception workshop was held in
August
• Country teams proposed initially
were strengthened
• Methodology and work plans
were developed
• A blog was created for continuous
interaction between team
members
• Sub-grants agreement are
finalized
• A training cum workshop planned
for October/November 2012 with
support from CCAFS
Some constraints
• Availability and access to climatic data
• Differences in available skills e.g., no active aqua crop
user in some countries
• Availability of good quality crop and economic data as
required by the crop and economic models
• Financial, technical and time limitations
Thanks for your attention